TSLA at 52 week high

[JeffKeryk]

Originally Posted by BMWTurboDzl


#3 Tesla is the darling of Silicon Valley and California. The US Gov't relies on SpaceX. For these reasons the govt would not let Tesla fail. Ever. You harp on the Big 3 getting bailout, well you haven't seen anything like a Tesla bailout. When the economy sours, which it will, look for 1/2 of their customer base to evaporate.


You are right; the Tesla loan is different that any other government loan...
Tesla paid back the government loan; the only American car company to do so.
Tesla Loan Pay Back

 

[splinter]

Tesla today borrowed ~$1.4B from our eternal friends china.

Onward and upward!

 

[UncleDave]

Originally Posted by BMWTurboDzl

#1 As a CEO you should be keenly aware that's not always the case.

#2 Are you talking outright subsidies or tax breaks that is available to every business?

#3 Tesla is the darling of Silicon Valley and California. The US Gov't relies on SpaceX. For these reasons the govt would not let Tesla fail. Ever. You harp on the Big 3 getting bailout, well you haven't seen anything like a Tesla bailout. When the economy sours, which it will, look for 1/2 of their customer base to evaporate.

For the record I think Tesla is probably a steal because the technology is amazing and is being essentially given away at the price they're selling the vehicle for, but that doesn't make it a viable business.


1. I never said " always" you did. I agree it happens.

2. Im talking about everything that everyone got and comparing to what Tesla got - Tesl got nothing anyone else didnt get including EV subsidies everyone including non domestic are eligible for.

3. The government doesnt rely on anything Spacex didnt earn. Lots of politicians trying to put space X out of business - to the extent somehow ULA gets to buy russian gear on the cheap to compete. Doenst feel very patriotic to me.
I doubt they wouldn't let tesla fail and I haven't ever heard politicians say anything like that the government let GM fail.

Are you making a prediction Tesla will fail, or that we will have a recession or both?

Sandy Munro claims the car is profitable, and not being given away and that its margin is higher % than any other EV somewhere ei the range of 30% - contradicting you entirely.

Who should I trust has this right?


UD

 

[UncleDave]

Originally Posted by splinter
Tesla today borrowed ~$1.4B from our eternal friends china.

Onward and upward!



And look at how Wall street rewarded this move......

Onward and upward!

UD

 

[Ws6]

Originally Posted by UncleDave
Originally Posted by splinter
Tesla today borrowed ~$1.4B from our eternal friends china.

Onward and upward!



And look at how Wall street rewarded this move......

Onward and upward!

UD

So stop whining about supporting an "American" company. It's just a Chinese proxy corporation at this point.

*maybe it wasn't you who said I should root for an American company when I bashed Tesla's poor management. If it wasn't, then pretend I quoted that person above, instead of you.

 

[Wolf359]

Originally Posted by BMWTurboDzl
#3 Tesla is the darling of Silicon Valley and California. The US Gov't relies on SpaceX. For these reasons the govt would not let Tesla fail. Ever. You harp on the Big 3 getting bailout, well you haven't seen anything like a Tesla bailout. When the economy sours, which it will, look for 1/2 of their customer base to evaporate.

For the record I think Tesla is probably a steal because the technology is amazing and is being essentially given away at the price they're selling the vehicle for, but that doesn't make it a viable business.


Let's be clear, Tesla is a publicly traded company. SpaceX is a separate company. The failure of one or the the other doesn't necessarily mean the other will fail. SpaceX isn't the only company out there that can launch into space so while it might cost more with other vendors, it's no reason to throw them a bone to keep them in business. The whole reason NASA got out of the space launch business was so there'd be some competition out there.

Total Tesla sales are still pretty small compared to the bigger automakers. Car lines like Saturn, Pontiac, Plymouth, Mercury, Oldsmobile, Hummer were all allowed to die.

Also short interest in Tesla is pretty high. Much higher than other stocks. I'm not rooting for Tesla to fail, but you have to wonder when you see the sharks out there. Those with rose colored glasses need to look at both sides of the story.

 

[UncleDave]

Originally Posted by Ws6
Originally Posted by UncleDave
Originally Posted by splinter
Tesla today borrowed ~$1.4B from our eternal friends china.

Onward and upward!



And look at how Wall street rewarded this move......

Onward and upward!

UD

So stop whining about supporting an "American" company. It's just a Chinese proxy corporation at this point.

*maybe it wasn't you who said I should root for an American company when I bashed Tesla's poor management. If it wasn't, then pretend I quoted that person above, instead of you.




How is it a "Chinese proxy company"? Please explain?

Elons done a bunch of dumb stuff, but also got a lot right - I call out both sides equally- always have.

I don't believe I told anyone who to root for, but that I prefer to see an American company on top, and that it seems you are hoping they fail.



UD

 

[JeffKeryk]

Auto stock of the decade...

"Powered by investors' faith in Musk's vision, Tesla's market cap is currently more than $76 billion, ahead of the Detroit 3— General Motors GM, Ford F and Fiat Chrysler FCAU."

TSLA up 1,600% since IPO

 

[Wolf359]

Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
Auto stock of the decade...

"Powered by investors' faith in Musk's vision, Tesla's market cap is currently more than $76 billion, ahead of the Detroit 3— General Motors GM, Ford F and Fiat Chrysler FCAU."

TSLA up 1,600% since IPO


Yeah, that's probably why people think there's something wrong with the picture when a car company that has only sold a total of 816k cars through the 3rd quarter of 2019 or about 255k cars in the first 3 quarters of 2019 can be valued more than car companies that sell millions every year.

Sort of reminds you of Bitcoin, those that bought at the high of 18k are still waiting for it to come back and it's down in the 7k range right now.

 

[Astro14]

Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
Auto stock of the decade...

"Powered by investors' faith in Musk's vision, Tesla's market cap is currently more than $76 billion, ahead of the Detroit 3— General Motors GM, Ford F and Fiat Chrysler FCAU."

TSLA up 1,600% since IPO


That, right there, is why I am not interested in this stock.

It's not powered by fundamentals, like, earnings, or even assets.

It's powered by faith.

Just like Bitcoin.

Just like Tulips.

Just like the South Sea Company.

Just like every dot com company in 1999.

 

[UncleDave]

Just like the US dollar itself.


UD

 

[JeffKeryk]

I gotta wonder when all the Tesla naysayers will get tired of being wrong?
Been proved wrong at every turn...

But don't feel too bad; so have all the analysts.
All good.

 

[PimTac]

Originally Posted by Astro14
Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
Auto stock of the decade...

"Powered by investors' faith in Musk's vision, Tesla's market cap is currently more than $76 billion, ahead of the Detroit 3— General Motors GM, Ford F and Fiat Chrysler FCAU."

TSLA up 1,600% since IPO


That, right there, is why I am not interested in this stock.

It's not powered by fundamentals, like, earnings, or even assets.

It's powered by faith.

Just like Bitcoin.

Just like Tulips.

Just like the South Sea Company.

Just like every dot com company in 1999.




And everyone said it was different this time until it wasn't.

As I mentioned before, the stock reminds me of JNPR. The cheerleaders pumped that stock to the stratosphere. A quick search of the JNPR stock chart all time tells the story. Do a all time chart to include the period before 2000. That is what is known as the Fickle Finger of Fate.

 

[UncleDave]

I dont get the analogy.

JNPR and Tesla not only have nothing in common, but the two curves look nothing alike and from what I can see never have.

I agree Jumpier why a hype and dump, but I dont remember them doing anything new and different that others weren't doing at the time, and didnt buy in.

I bought cisco back in the day.

At the time of Enron my buddies at sempra wouldn't do business with them because no finance guy there could understand their business.


Tesla has always and still is a risk, but the business model is clear, and they offer a differentiated product in the market - something neither Enron nor Juniper offered.

UD

 

[PimTac]

Both sticks were pumped up on hype and not in fundamentals. The next big thing and the future are great selling points but profits and debt ratios are important as well. Everyone (well almost everyone) knows that Elon has been playing the Shell game with his three companies. It's not sustainable from a business standpoint.

 

[PimTac]

Another thought here;

If you are knowledgeable about investing, one of the cardinal rules is to never get married to a stock, that is get emotionally attached to a stock. I sense some of that here.

A company can be exciting and promising and future looking but the fundamentals are still important. This is why ETFs are great. One can invest in a biotech ETF for example versus one single company that can blow up overnight. It's another part of being diversified.

In my case I've invested in Apple for years but it has never been more that 5% of my total portfolio.

 

[UncleDave]

Originally Posted by PimTac
Both sticks were pumped up on hype and not in fundamentals. The next big thing and the future are great selling points but profits and debt ratios are important as well. Everyone (well almost everyone) knows that Elon has been playing the Shell game with his three companies. It's not sustainable from a business standpoint.


If its not sustainable when do you predict it will fail?

Have you been predicting its failure all along like many? I dont read every thread by a long shot but Im curious how your past predictions have faired.

Seems people chase i around with new criticisms after each success -

model 3 is best selling vehicle in its class eating everyone lunch in the segment - if thats not a "fundamental" then what would be?

Note this was predicted as an outright impossibility just 2 years ago.

now followed by yeah but that class is shrinking anyway type response.

After X amount of investment and segment success where do "fundamentals" begin to emerge?



UD

 

[PimTac]

Fundamentals include profits. We haven't seen any yet.

In a good economy like we are going through and a booming market, a lot of companies will rise with the tide. They are not all worthy though. Eventually the market will shift as it always does and it will revert to the mean.

 

[UncleDave]

Originally Posted by PimTac
Fundamentals include profits. We haven't seen any yet.

In a good economy like we are going through and a booming market, a lot of companies will rise with the tide. They are not all worthy though. Eventually the market will shift as it always does and it will revert to the mean.


So you are ignoring everything that has been accomplished, sales dominance, charging infrastructure multiple factories - or minimizing it to the point where you claim it doesnt count.

It's not accurate to say you haven't seen " any" profit. Telsa has turned a quarter or two but certainly nothing long term Id agree.

Experts like Sandy Munro have claimed the even the base car can is profitable so we have no reason to believe its not possible.

Given there hasn't been a viable new auto company in our lifetimes what amount of time would you say is reasonable to expect profits in?

Curious about your answers on when it will fail or what your record has been on them so far.

If it goes for 10 more years then fails - are you right?

UD

 

[PimTac]

Obviously we won't come to a common ground here. A couple points.

Whatever money Tesla is making is going into projects with the other companies Elon has. If he would stick with Tesla then maybe their financials would hold up better under scrutiny.

Just my idea but what if Tesla introduced a entry level vehicle? So far everything is upmarket. Maybe that is in the cards?

I like to invest in solid companies and companies with accelerating growth and profits. There are plenty of those out there.