TSLA at 52 week high

[UncleDave]

Originally Posted by PimTac
Obviously we won't come to a common ground here. A couple points.

Whatever money Tesla is making is going into projects with the other companies Elon has. If he would stick with Tesla then maybe their financials would hold up better under scrutiny.

Just my idea but what if Tesla introduced a entry level vehicle? So far everything is upmarket. Maybe that is in the cards?

I like to invest in solid companies and companies with accelerating growth and profits. There are plenty of those out there.



I enjoy the dialog even if we do not agree.

I agree I'd like to see less boring company and more cars quicker.

I suspect well see a lower level car than the base model 3 was at some point in the future, interestingly the 35K car had few takers after all he hoopla about it.

I expect others with existing ice autos will come in lower as they can cost average down better than tesla but so far everyone elses EV's have been woefully less efficient in terms of Miles per KWH so they have to spend much more to get the same mileage.

I understand your investment strategy and agree there are lots of good places that have much less risk.

UD

 

[JeffKeryk]

The profitability issue is a non issue. Tesla is in growth mode.
Name another car manufacturer that is. Shanghai is starting to deliver cars in the world's biggest EV market. They broke ground less than a year ago/ right?
Berlin is next.

The Model Y release is near. The Roadster will serve a fantastic marketing and will sell like hotcakes. The ugly pickup has people talking; it sucked all the air outta the room.
All the other premium EVs are flops compared to Tesla.

The fundamentals are strong.

Jim Cramer

 

[PimTac]

I'm not a fan of Jim Cramer. CNBC is a cheerleader network

I do miss the wisdom of Louis Rukeyser. His show was a favorite of mine.

 

[dareo]

I predict Tesla will have a rough Q1-Q2 in 2020. They aren't selling many S and X type cars. M3 doing great, but those are low margin. Even the popular model 3 will likely decline as people look forward to the new Model Y instead. Price cuts to the Model 3 will probably happen as the Y comes out. By Q3 they should have a ton of Model Y sales in the books, even if they aren't yet delivered, so the stock will rebound again in the fall. Maybe a stock price in the 200s by march, and back into the 400s by the fall is entirely possible.

 

[Mr Nice]

Originally Posted by PimTac
I'm not a fan of Jim Cramer. CNBC is a cheerleader network

I do miss the wisdom of Louis Rukeyser. His show was a favorite of mine.


I agree, especially his silly sound effects to emphasize his feelings.

I do like Nightly Business Report.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Originally Posted by dareo
I predict Tesla will have a rough Q1-Q2 in 2020. They aren't selling many S and X type cars. M3 doing great, but those are low margin. Even the popular model 3 will likely decline as people look forward to the new Model Y instead. Price cuts to the Model 3 will probably happen as the Y comes out. By Q3 they should have a ton of Model Y sales in the books, even if they aren't yet delivered, so the stock will rebound again in the fall. Maybe a stock price in the 200s by march, and back into the 400s by the fall is entirely possible.

That could be, but remember Shanghai is just starting now to deliver cars.
Also, the failure of Jaguar, Porsche, Audi and the others to come up with a viable competitor bouys Tesla.
Musk has said Tesla is not focusing on the S and X, even though they still sell more than other expensive EVs (more than $80K or so).

 

[Wolf359]

Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
The profitability issue is a non issue. Tesla is in growth mode.
Name another car manufacturer that is. Shanghai is starting to deliver cars in the world's biggest EV market. They broke ground less than a year ago/ right?
Berlin is next.

The Model Y release is near. The Roadster will serve a fantastic marketing and will sell like hotcakes. The ugly pickup has people talking; it sucked all the air outta the room.
All the other premium EVs are flops compared to Tesla.

The fundamentals are strong.

Jim Cramer


It's growth mode for a niche market.

I don't see it working for people who live in the cities. How are they going to charge their cars at night? You expect every parking lot/garage to have a charger in every spot?

Once it matures in a few years, the P/E ratio will revert to the norm. When that happens, watch out below. They don't have to go under for the stock to crater. That's why the shorts are circling like sharks that smell blood in the water. If you can't figure that out, you need more investor education. Do you think this is a company that Warren Buffet would like? There's a difference between speculation and investing.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Originally Posted by Wolf359

That's why the shorts are circling like sharks that smell blood in the water. If you can't figure that out, you need more investor education.

The TSLA short sellers are getting killed. $430.
TSLA Short Sellers

 

[dareo]

What if they short it today, at this lofty 430 dollar price? They will probably clean up when the Q1 low numbers roll in.

 

[Wolf359]

Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
Originally Posted by Wolf359

That's why the shorts are circling like sharks that smell blood in the water. If you can't figure that out, you need more investor education.

The TSLA short sellers are getting killed. $430.
TSLA Short Sellers


Look into investor education. Know the difference between speculation and investing. Shorts getting killed one day, investors getting killed several months ago. Not sure that's a stock worth playing with. Playing with fire tends to get you burned. The signs are there, you just need to know how to look for them and take off your rose colored glasses once in a while.

I will remind you of the Chewbacca defense which doesn't make sense. Same as this stock.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Originally Posted by Wolf359

Look into investor education. Know the difference between speculation and investing. Shorts getting killed one day, investors getting killed several months ago. Not sure that's a stock worth playing with. Playing with fire tends to get you burned. The signs are there, you just need to know how to look for them and take off your rose colored glasses once in a while.

No need to worry about my portfolio...
I majored in Business Finance at San Jose State University; minored in Econ and Computer Science.
I do predictive analytics for executive staff at multi billion dollar Silicon Valley companies.
Let's just say that my investments are in pretty good shape.

I agree with investment education. It should start in grade school.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Originally Posted by dareo
What if they short it today, at this lofty 430 dollar price? They will probably clean up when the Q1 low numbers roll in.

Tesla is the 2nd most shorted stock after Apple.
Tesla shorts have lost $1.4B in value this year.

I am not sure how you know what the Q1 numbers will be.
I can tell you the Shanghai plant is just starting to deliver cars; China is the biggest EV market in the world.
And the US Model 3 backlog exceeds production.

If you are confident in shorting Tesla, go ahead. This might be a good time.
So far the naysayers are getting killed.

 

[Wolf359]

Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
Originally Posted by Wolf359

Look into investor education. Know the difference between speculation and investing. Shorts getting killed one day, investors getting killed several months ago. Not sure that's a stock worth playing with. Playing with fire tends to get you burned. The signs are there, you just need to know how to look for them and take off your rose colored glasses once in a while.

No need to worry about my portfolio...
I majored in Business Finance at San Jose State University; minored in Econ and Computer Science.
I do predictive analytics for executive staff at multi billion dollar Silicon Valley companies.
Let's just say that my investments are in pretty good shape.

I agree with investment education. It should start in grade school.



Then aside from being a fan of the product, I don't see why you keep pushing it. It's a horrible stock for the average investor to own. It may have some upside and potentially a lot of downside. Shorts got killed, but don't forget about investors, they were killed earlier in the year. They recovered if they held on. Same as the sorts, the shorts who got killed were the ones who bailed and covered their position. They could always have held on just like investors.

Also I don't think some of your statements are accurate. They worked through their backlog. If you want a Model 3 with some options, you can just walk into a showroom and get one. It's the base models that have a backlog and Elon has been on the record of how they'd be out of business if they just sold base models. So the backlog of base models is basically worthless. If you're an analyst, do some real analysis.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Originally Posted by Wolf359

Then aside from being a fan of the product, I don't see why you keep pushing it. It's a horrible stock for the average investor to own. It may have some upside and potentially a lot of downside. Shorts got killed, but don't forget about investors, they were killed earlier in the year. They recovered if they held on. Same as the sorts, the shorts who got killed were the ones who bailed and covered their position. They could always have held on just like investors.

Also I don't think some of your statements are accurate. They worked through their backlog. If you want a Model 3 with some options, you can just walk into a showroom and get one. It's the base models that have a backlog and Elon has been on the record of how they'd be out of business if they just sold base models. So the backlog of base models is basically worthless. If you're an analyst, do some real analysis.

You have mistaken my posts; I am not pushing or recommending purchasing Tesla or any stock for that matter. I do work with others who are interested in investing; I get asked from time to time. I recommend against individual stocks; I recommend a long term investment in a nice index fund. I have rarely purhased individual stocks.
I disagree with your comments about investments. If someone shorted Tesla at say $200, they are gonna have to wait a long time to make any money, if ever. And if the short is called, they gotta pay up. And anyone who has held on to Tesla for any length of time is looking pretty good right now. This is evidenced by its history.

You are wrong about the backlog; buyers are now waiting until March for deliveries. The overseas deliveries have slowed domestic deliveries. Used Model 3s are at a premium right now.
Your comment about showrooms doesn't make sense. Tesla does not have showrooms or dealerships; they have "stores" and service centers where you can learn about the cars.
I never said I was an analyst; I am just reporting the news. I do follow the economy as I studied it in school.

 

[dareo]

Q1 will be bad for many reasons, just my speculation:
1. Tax credit is gone
2. Winter is harsh on all car sales and EV range is poor in cold.
3. Tesla pushed hard for sales in q4, people will have purchased in 2019 if they were going to.
4. Model Y is getting close. Why buy a 3 when you can have the trendiest newest tesla by waiting till summer?
5. Tesla q1 has historically sucked, so id be surprised if this forthcoming q1 differs.
6. The only strong numbers Elon can show off will be China and some Europe markets that have tax incentives.
7. China is no guaranteed success. At 50k usd, the car costs a fortune in china. They will sell many units but paying for gigafactory 3 and making a profit is a long way away. There has to be a limit to the willing and capable chinese buyer pool.
8. Teslas are now mainstream, ordinary, normal, no longer even the least bit exotic. Die hard fans already have one or two. Those that do not have one either do not want or cant afford it.

But it is TSLA so who knows what will actually happen with its stock price or even the crazy (cybertruck) ideas it spits out.

 

[E365]

I thought this was interesting.

Total 2019 Tesla Model 3 sales (estimated) in the USA: 158,925

Total 2019 Cadillac sales in the USA (every model they make): 156,246

https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-scorecard/

https://media.gm.com/dld/content/Pa....res/Deliveries%20Quarter%204%202019.pdf

 

[dareo]

I'm a bit shocked at the sales figures just released for last quarter. I was expecting high sales on the model 3, but they actually sold 19450 S+X vehicles too. Maybe wealthy business owners doing some end of year section 179 buys.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Originally Posted by dareo
I'm a bit shocked at the sales figures just released for last quarter. I was expecting high sales on the model 3, but they actually sold 19450 S+X vehicles too. Maybe wealthy business owners doing some end of year section 179 buys.

The Model X is stinking expensive. People are trading in other expensive, and perhaps troublesome, SUVs for the X.
One friend traded his new Volvo, another is tired of his problematic Cayenne.
You can pay over $100K for one of these; too much for me.

Many people I talk to are waiting on the Model Y. A friend has an order in for a Model Y Performance.
I am sticking with our Lexus RX Hybrid; heck the dang thing is new!

 

[dareo]

Yes the X is big bucks, but if your a small business owner who's killing it, like 300k income, spending 125k on a loaded X via section 179 can save you 30k in federal taxes, and last year a small additional tax credit, and maybe a state based credit too. Suddenly your Model X looks more affordable.

The Model S is quite attractive at only 80k and 370 miles range, i wonder how many of the 19450 vehicles were that instead of the X.

 

[edyvw]

I had unfortunate opportunity to witness this last Sunday on my way from DC to Colorado:
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/b...-indiana-killing-arizona-woman/40911551/
I was wondering what happened as Tesla looked like it hit the wall, and then there was (I think) Honda Civic in divider with minor damage. So I searched news last night to see if there is anything, and here it is. From what I saw, it seems that Civic ended up in divider, and fire truck was parked in left lane responding to that accident. This guy had Tesla on auto pilot, and slammed into truck killing his wife.
IDK what they are thinking in Tesla, but that so called car company has some serious issues IMO when it comes to execution of fetuares they offer. It si ridicilous that after all these accidents NTSB is not on their rear end.