Investors....come in please!

Status
Not open for further replies.
There’s a phrase I like to use. “If you’ve learned nothing from history well, you’ve learned nothing.”

Let’s call this the extra boiled down Readers Digest version.

My grandfather was a floor trader at the now CBOE until my sophomore year in high school. It was his 20+ years in the business that to be frank gave me an edge. He understood how the market fluctuated and why they do what they do and how to spot, many times years in advance what they do. He did call the 70s decline a year before it started to within a month. I had no clue then how he did it but what an eye opening experience there was to follow.

I started paper trading in the late 60s while still in high school. In Jan. 71 I made my first trade. Almost lost my hinder on it too.

In the mid 70s I had worked my way to shop manager in a marina I worked for. Shortly after getting my new office I started putting up charts on the wall with 3 & 6 month projections. At first it was done more to keep myself in check. After a couple years people having noticed those projection charts things developed into a million questions.

By mid 79 I had my own store and the charts followed. Pretty soon we were having monthly meetings in the show room. After I sold my business in 96 I went into the market full time about 6 months later. What surprised me was the following. It even got to the point we rented a local VFW hall once a year.

I moved out of state just before the 2000 dump started. I had sold everything related to the general market and wasn’t concerned about things so I had time to resettle etc. and cared less about S/T issues. The Internet was going good by then so the fax machine and mailman lost a job. BTW was a cheese head and lived about 60 miles from where Johnny is now.

Anyway it all got started from a small office in the middle of a marina with freezer paper for wall charts. BTW I still do most of my long term projection charts by hand.

More to follow when I get a break.
 
This fall I’ll be doing some more traveling up and down the east coast so some don’t need worry about me showing up again for some time.

Got a bunch of stuff planned in Wis. and the UP this fall and winter. Mid next year I plan on going to Egypt for 3 weeks. A bike ride from central Wis. to an old friend in Alaska, back down thru the NW into parts of the SW. Getting off track here but my schedule for the next year or so will cause me to play the intermediate “I/T” and long-term stuff, which I can do very well and easily.

Day trading, VST & S/T trading is great but can be taxing both on the mind & body but good for the IRS. I’ll dabble in it once a while to stay sharp but not as an on going theme. After 12 years of it on a full time basis I have other interests now and the trading partners will soon be buying my interest.

Anyway after some saw the 2008 May/June high call & the late Feb. upcoming low call, which hit the mark I received a fair number of people wanting to get info. Every request was courteous so I responded to those that wanted help. Further additions will not be given consideration this year.

Good luck
 
CMHJ, I hope you're still here because I'm interested
in what indicators you rely on. You mentioned a Doji in
a previous post, so I know you use candlesticks.

I've searched for the 'Holy Grail' of trading for
several years now, and have gotten close but have
found out that no one trading system will work in
all markets. One has to adapt, and remember that
technical analysis is a measure of human pyschology
as much as economic trends or a company's earnings.

I guess what I'm wondering is what system you'll use
for long-term trading, with everything being so volatile
now, as you travel to foreign countries like Egypt
and Alaska and are out of touch with what's going on......?

Regardless, stay safe and have fun.
TLR
 
I sold some 2X and 3X bull funds today, and bought 3X bear funds. Which makes my X portfolio slightly bearish again. I hate to fight the tide, but the market seems overbought to me...

I'm up over 22% for the year.
 
22% wow, nice going Pablo. I've done good
this year too, although not that good.
I did pull in a good chunk of change today though.

So you're poking the bear, huh? The S&P was
making a new yearly high today, so that's
probably a good move on your part. My computer
indicators show we're getting close to a
short-term top, but they can stay overbought
for quite a while. I'm looking for a sideways/up
market for about another 2-3 weeks and then
a turn-down, that could be pretty steep and
prolonged......
 
I can see getting a little singed at this point if the rally continues, but how much upside do we have ST? I'll set the stops, but if we have a couple fear days, then I cash out.
 
Originally Posted By: Pablo
I sold some 2X and 3X bull funds today, and bought 3X bear funds. Which makes my X portfolio slightly bearish again. I hate to fight the tide, but the market seems overbought to me...

I'm up over 22% for the year.


I didn't have the time to get on the short side today.
 
Hey ranger. Thanks for the nice post.

I’m still around now and then. Tues AM after confirming a S/T low was in place I made my comments, then the wife and I drove down to No. Carolina to visit an old friend of hers for a couple days.

Actually I don’t use candle sticks. The majority of indicators I use are untraditional and proprietary, which at current total over 55 for my long-term work. However, within my systems, cycle projections & pattern analysis hold the greatest weight for all time frames. When time, price, pattern and systems analysis all come together, get out of my way.

BTW for those that don’t know, a doji is simply a pattern formation that, to keep it simple is a period in which the open and close are near each other with a high spike in between.

A lot of times when one is trying to do S/T trades within a big cycle trend, as I was in March 2008 distortion will come into play. Some like to say cycles invert. There’s no such thing as a cycle inversion. This is why I had at that time given a couple optional S/T wave pattern projections. Like physics if you will. For every action there’s an opposite reaction. After watching things for about a week in mid April I came up with the pattern and cycle analysis that no later than May 22 would be the high. Thus the mid/late May high call.

I carry a wireless that allows me to sit at the bar doing S/T market analysis & trades if I wish. While I don’t do much S/T stuff while traveling, I could. I normally just check things once or twice a week and move on.

Volatility doesn’t bother me when playing the big picture. Had it bothered me, late last year would have had me eating my finger tips off. When playing I/T and long-term stuff one has to be disciplined in ignoring the S/T & some times the I/T whips. When one understands the cyclicality of human behavior, the rest usually falls in place. Thus the cycle work will follow and then my analysis will usually collaborate.

I should add one thing. Cycles will usually not find the exact high or low when either is a major. When playing the big picture I’ve been known to stand aside 5-15% before the big high or low to accommodate my schedule.

When I get a chance to sit down and analyze things for a week or so at or near the projected point in time, be it a high or low, I’ll then make my grand play while everyone else knows what to look for. Meanwhile lots of cash is nice for a couple weeks or longer if need be.

Anyway Lone Ranger, I got my plane tickets in hand for the next run. Later next week, if I can borrow a phrase, it’ll be Hi O Silver AWAAAAAY!

Good Luck
 
Originally Posted By: cmhj
it’ll be Hi O Silver AWAAAAAY!


At last.

"Hi-ho Silver," is by the way what that stuttering kid in SK's 'IT' was yelling whenever he got on his bike, which he had named Silver.
 
Originally Posted By: cmhj
Tues AM after confirming a S/T low was in place I made my comments, then the wife and I drove down to No. Carolina to visit an old friend of hers for a couple days.




The "gaff hook" was well set last Tues. A S/T top of sorts might be in place within a day or so. Right now we're getting a bit of distortion in the wave action so I have to work more from the overnight reads from the big rack.

I'll also be stepping out for a few weeks. Even though, despite some of the feedback, I was still willing to help into early Sep., but I escalated my vacation schedule to start later this week.

Watch and see what mid Sep. does. It might be another "gaff hook" like last Tues. was, maybe.
 
Originally Posted By: Pablo
Cash sucks at 0.5% interest though!


Go to BankRate.com . You'll find FDIC-insured banks offering better CD and money market rates.

I think buying individual stocks is dangerous. Even financial "experts" {Lol} get it wrong half the time. For every call these professionals make that's right, they make a call that's wrong. If you're very lucky, you'll find an "expert" that's right 60 percent of the time--that's it.

The only equity instrument I feel comfortable buying is an S&P 500 index fund like SPY or Vanguard's VFINX, but only because I'm holding for 30 years 'till retirement.

Let's hope the behavior of the Japanese broad market index isn't repeated here.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top