No, I didn’t… for once, I tried to be as non-incendiary as possible
Why have motor oil prices gone up so much?
- Thread starter grampi
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The US could be out of diesel fuel in less than 25 day, if that happens you wont have to worry about higher prices, there will be nothing to buy.
There is only one person to blame. Thanks ESJ.
economictimes.indiatimes.com
www.bloomberg.com
jalopnik.com
There is only one person to blame. Thanks ESJ.
Not political at all just the gods honest truth. You sound sorry to say out of touch, too many sites are publishing this info. Who cares if you wrote a company email 3 pages long, it means nothing. Saying click bait and false is ridiculous, it is not click bait and true. Sorry chief they are all lying or you don't have a clue. I doubt they are lying.
Diesel shortage across the US? Reports say only 25 days of supply left, read here
The United States is experiencing a diesel shortage, particularly on the East Coast, as a result of multi-year low stockpiles and supply bottlenecks with reports suggesting that only 25 days of fuel is left in the nation's fuel bank.
Diesel Supply of Just 25 Days Poses Problem for Biden
Diesel demand is surging in the US while supplies remain at the lowest seasonal level ever, according to government data released Wednesday.
www.bloomberg.com
There's Only a 25 Day Supply of Diesel in the U.S.: Report
Diesel supplies in the United States are at their lowest levels since 2008.
jalopnik.com
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You’re falling for click bait. Without getting too opsec, I’m involved with a company that moves, about 1/2 billion gallons of fuel a year.
And you simply have no clue how that industry works.
The reality of the US Distillate situation.
As we’ve seen in the news recently, first starting with Zerohedge, before making it into more mainstream media types, such as Bloomberg and Tucker Carlson. There is a reported ‘shortage of diesel fuel’ and that we only have ’25 days’ worth of diesel fuel.
Let’s first get into what is classified as diesel fuel. Diesel fuel is part of the Distillate Fuel Oil family, that the EIA tracks. What is the EIA? It is the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Which provides independent statistics and analysis of all energy production in the US, this includes fuel oils and all refinery production. For this discussion, we’re looking at the distillate fuel oil numbers.
The EIA tracks nearly everything about distillate prices, from average nation-wide price, to broken down into the different PADD territories. PADD 1 through PADD 5. PADD stands for Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts.
PADD 1 – Broken down into PADD 1 A, PADD 1 B, PADD 1 C.
-PADD 1A is New England States
-PADD 1B is Central Atlantic states
-PADD 1C is Lower Atlantic states.
PADD 2 is Midwest – Ohio to Nebraska. Oklahoma, to Minnesota.
PADD 3 is Gulf Coast – New Mexico to Alabama.
PADD 4 is Rocky Mountain – Colorado to Montana.
PADD 5 is West coast – Also includes Alaska and Hawaii.
The five-year average for distillate stocks, has been approximately 130,000,000 barrels. A barrel is 42 gallons. Or approximately, a 27-to-28-day supply of distillates on hand. We vary, depending on seasonal demand, between 110 million barrels, to a high of around 140 million barrels, outside of the early COVID era, where we nearly crested 180 million barrels of distillates.
We have been trending down in distillate inventories now for the last two years, as of this week – 10/21/22 – we’ve reached 106 million barrels of distillate inventories.
Why are we trending down?
1.We’re exporting more than usual currently. Over the last five years, we have exported approximately 1 million barrels per day of distillates. (Barrels will now be shorted to BBL or BPD as barrels per day.) We are now exporting on average of 1.259m BPD of distillates. This represents a 25.9% increase since the Russian invasion of the Ukraine.
2.Refining capacity over the last 2 years has shrunk by approximately 1m barrels per day. In July of 2022, we had 17,962,000m BPD of refining capacity total. In July of 2017, we had 18,567,000 BDP of refining capacity. Peaking out in in 2020, at 18,976,000 BPD of refining capacity.
3.Our 5-year usage trend of distillate fuel consumption has remained statistically the same. We use approximately 4,000,000 BPD of distillate fuels.
-We produce typically more distillates than we internally consume. Our average production is 4,900,000 BPD.
Since we have increased our export by approximately 26% and our refining capacity is scaled back approximately 6%, we now are utilizing more distillate fuels than we produce, between consumption internally and external exports.
What does this mean? That we are not going to run out of fuel in 25 days. At current burn rate on average of 360,000 BPD, we would completely deplete our inventories in 294 days. There are some hiccups in the system, that could decrease this inventory number faster than expected.
We are experiencing some unexpected downtime at refineries currently. Recently, we had the BP-Husky Toledo explosion and fire. Husky Lima is still down, although supposedly going online for production soon. There are other refinery maintenance and closures planned for the end of 2022 or early 2023. Motiva Port Arthur, the largest refinery in the US, is scheduled to go down for planned maintenance soon.
What is the realistic number? If we keep the export volume up, with the decrease in refining capacity that is expected, along with the typical seasonal increase in demand, we would have about 130 to 150 days’ worth of distillate fuels in inventory. However, with big picture of economic downturn becoming a reality, that could once more extend that as we have demand go down, as prices go higher.
Refinery income levels have become profitable again, long term this could lead to re-investment into new capacity, however long-term CAPEX spending by major oil companies has been cut significantly. We also do have several dedicated refinery companies now, that could pick up the slack. Holly-Frontier, Ergon, Par Pacific and even Vertex now have refineries that could be expanded for further production of distillates.
There is certainly a rocky future, however it is not as doom and gloom as the media presents it to be.
Cited sources:
EIA Weekly distillate: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/distillate.php
EIA Weekly Supply Estimates: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_epd0_vpp_mbblpd_w.htm
EIA Refinery Utilization and Capacity: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_unc_dcu_nus_m.htm
EIA PADD inventories: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_a_epd0_sae_mbbl_w.htm
As we’ve seen in the news recently, first starting with Zerohedge, before making it into more mainstream media types, such as Bloomberg and Tucker Carlson. There is a reported ‘shortage of diesel fuel’ and that we only have ’25 days’ worth of diesel fuel.
Let’s first get into what is classified as diesel fuel. Diesel fuel is part of the Distillate Fuel Oil family, that the EIA tracks. What is the EIA? It is the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Which provides independent statistics and analysis of all energy production in the US, this includes fuel oils and all refinery production. For this discussion, we’re looking at the distillate fuel oil numbers.
The EIA tracks nearly everything about distillate prices, from average nation-wide price, to broken down into the different PADD territories. PADD 1 through PADD 5. PADD stands for Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts.
PADD 1 – Broken down into PADD 1 A, PADD 1 B, PADD 1 C.
-PADD 1A is New England States
-PADD 1B is Central Atlantic states
-PADD 1C is Lower Atlantic states.
PADD 2 is Midwest – Ohio to Nebraska. Oklahoma, to Minnesota.
PADD 3 is Gulf Coast – New Mexico to Alabama.
PADD 4 is Rocky Mountain – Colorado to Montana.
PADD 5 is West coast – Also includes Alaska and Hawaii.
The five-year average for distillate stocks, has been approximately 130,000,000 barrels. A barrel is 42 gallons. Or approximately, a 27-to-28-day supply of distillates on hand. We vary, depending on seasonal demand, between 110 million barrels, to a high of around 140 million barrels, outside of the early COVID era, where we nearly crested 180 million barrels of distillates.
We have been trending down in distillate inventories now for the last two years, as of this week – 10/21/22 – we’ve reached 106 million barrels of distillate inventories.
Why are we trending down?
1.We’re exporting more than usual currently. Over the last five years, we have exported approximately 1 million barrels per day of distillates. (Barrels will now be shorted to BBL or BPD as barrels per day.) We are now exporting on average of 1.259m BPD of distillates. This represents a 25.9% increase since the Russian invasion of the Ukraine.
2.Refining capacity over the last 2 years has shrunk by approximately 1m barrels per day. In July of 2022, we had 17,962,000m BPD of refining capacity total. In July of 2017, we had 18,567,000 BDP of refining capacity. Peaking out in in 2020, at 18,976,000 BPD of refining capacity.
3.Our 5-year usage trend of distillate fuel consumption has remained statistically the same. We use approximately 4,000,000 BPD of distillate fuels.
-We produce typically more distillates than we internally consume. Our average production is 4,900,000 BPD.
Since we have increased our export by approximately 26% and our refining capacity is scaled back approximately 6%, we now are utilizing more distillate fuels than we produce, between consumption internally and external exports.
What does this mean? That we are not going to run out of fuel in 25 days. At current burn rate on average of 360,000 BPD, we would completely deplete our inventories in 294 days. There are some hiccups in the system, that could decrease this inventory number faster than expected.
We are experiencing some unexpected downtime at refineries currently. Recently, we had the BP-Husky Toledo explosion and fire. Husky Lima is still down, although supposedly going online for production soon. There are other refinery maintenance and closures planned for the end of 2022 or early 2023. Motiva Port Arthur, the largest refinery in the US, is scheduled to go down for planned maintenance soon.
What is the realistic number? If we keep the export volume up, with the decrease in refining capacity that is expected, along with the typical seasonal increase in demand, we would have about 130 to 150 days’ worth of distillate fuels in inventory. However, with big picture of economic downturn becoming a reality, that could once more extend that as we have demand go down, as prices go higher.
Refinery income levels have become profitable again, long term this could lead to re-investment into new capacity, however long-term CAPEX spending by major oil companies has been cut significantly. We also do have several dedicated refinery companies now, that could pick up the slack. Holly-Frontier, Ergon, Par Pacific and even Vertex now have refineries that could be expanded for further production of distillates.
There is certainly a rocky future, however it is not as doom and gloom as the media presents it to be.
Cited sources:
EIA Weekly distillate: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/distillate.php
EIA Weekly Supply Estimates: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_epd0_vpp_mbblpd_w.htm
EIA Refinery Utilization and Capacity: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_unc_dcu_nus_m.htm
EIA PADD inventories: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_a_epd0_sae_mbbl_w.htm
I appreciate the most recent post. But I’m about to lock this one.
We’ve starting making ad hominem arguments. We’ve revisited every argument present in this thread:
And we’re making veiled political commentary.
Stick to the subject without crossing into ad hominem arguments, or politic, and this can stay open.
We’ve starting making ad hominem arguments. We’ve revisited every argument present in this thread:
Bye bye Valvoline EP
Since I change the oil in my wife's car at 5,000 mile intervals, I'm going to have to move on to a new oil, probably Super Tech...I can't justify the price....
bobistheoilguy.com
And we’re making veiled political commentary.
Stick to the subject without crossing into ad hominem arguments, or politic, and this can stay open.
Shocked this wasn't locked in minutes
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My radio show yesterday was talking about this, as well as Houston news. We all may be totally screwed soon.The US could be out of diesel fuel in less than 25 day, if that happens you wont have to worry about higher prices, there will be nothing to buy.
There is only one person to blame. Thanks ESJ.
Not political at all just the gods honest truth. You sound sorry to say out of touch, too many sites are publishing this info. Who cares if you wrote a company email 3 pages long, it means nothing. Saying click bait and false is ridiculous, it is not click bait and true. Sorry chief they are all lying or you don't have a clue. I doubt they are lying.
Diesel shortage across the US? Reports say only 25 days of supply left, read here
The United States is experiencing a diesel shortage, particularly on the East Coast, as a result of multi-year low stockpiles and supply bottlenecks with reports suggesting that only 25 days of fuel is left in the nation's fuel bank.
Diesel Supply of Just 25 Days Poses Problem for Biden
Diesel demand is surging in the US while supplies remain at the lowest seasonal level ever, according to government data released Wednesday.
There's Only a 25 Day Supply of Diesel in the U.S.: Report
Diesel supplies in the United States are at their lowest levels since 2008.
4WD
$50 site donor 2024
than
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I wasnt going to wade in, but the diesel supply thing is a bit skewed. Yes were at record lows near 25 days, but we also have been running at about 30 days worth most of the year, and have been down in 30 day range many times in the past.
So yes, its certainly worth paying attention to, but in context its not time to panic yet.
At 15 days I think I will panic.
So yes, its certainly worth paying attention to, but in context its not time to panic yet.
At 15 days I think I will panic.
Yea not like drilling holes in to the ground, and then spilling it off a ship, or a broken pipeline.
Last time I bought supertec it was $9.99 & $12.99, wasn’t that long ago either
I’ll never buy anything super tech when I can get a MC filter for $3 and or a Prime Guard for my vehicles for $1-2
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