Why have motor oil prices gone up so much?

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We’ve had a price increase essentially 16 out of the last 20 months.

Wholesale pricing has gone up about ~210%

If anything, pre-Covid retail pricing on oil was absurdly high.

That being said, let’s get into pricing a bit.

What effects cost of lubricants? Well, primarily 2 aspects:
1. Base oil pricing.
2. Additive pricing.

Base oil pricing you can see a general ballpark of in lubes and greases. Additives have been a little more… erratic. In the last 18 months we’ve had several severe additive shortages in the market place. Primarily PCEO and HDEO additive shortages were notable. But we’ve also had industrial additive shortages on EP gear oils, compressor products and some cutting oils. Less notable to the retail consumer.

There are some other costs associated with retail oil:
1. Toll blending fees - plant management, equipment repairs and of course, labor costs. All general costs of doing business are up about 25% in 2 years.

2. Packaging costs have gone up dramatic. As, plastic bottles are made out of oil based products. The cost of 55 gallon drums has essentially doubled. Other containers such as kegs are hard to get. And god help you trying to get grease tubes.

3. Transportation costs have doubled to tripled. It’s about $6 a mile to haul bulk lubricants now commercially.

So, why have lubricants costs doubled, Or more?

Base oil prices are not only affecting the lubricants market. But additives need to be solubilized. Additives increase as base oil does. As well as independently of base oil due to their own plant costs. The cost of throughput blending has gone up. The cost of trucking additives and base oils have gone up. The cost of rail car movement has gone up for both additives and base oils. Due to additive shortages, companies are turning to truck over rail for additives.

And, it costs more to blend the oil. While packing has essentially tripled in costs.

Yep. Retail oil is going to get more expensive. AW46 today, is about the same price as Dexos 1 Gen 2 products were, in 2019, on the wholesale level.
 
Walmart, who USED to have the least expensive oil (Super Tech)...they may still do if all the others have gone up this much...
Walmart is also getting higher than every other store on everything. They used to be the cheapest, but now are the most expensive, even on their groceries.

For example, I went to go buy a screen protector and case for my brand new iPhone 14 Plus, and I found all of that stuff cheaper at the T-Mobile store and Best Buy.

The ONLY thing I buy at Walmart now is motor oil. HEB spanks them on grocery prices.
 
Walmart is also getting higher than every other store on everything. They used to be the cheapest, but now are the most expensive, even on their groceries.

For example, I went to go buy a screen protector and case for my brand new iPhone 14 Plus, and I found all of that stuff cheaper at the T-Mobile store and Best Buy.

The ONLY thing I buy at Walmart now is motor oil. HEB spanks them on grocery prices.
Price and product availability is a problem at our WM's.
 
You will get more longevity from 5 qts of oil, than you will get from 5 gallons of gasoline. Most will get a years worth of use from 5qts of oil, at a cost of maybe $45. How much does a years worth of gas run you ?.,,,
 
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Exxon’s profit of nearly $20 billion for the July-September period was a record for any quarter, and 10 percent higher than the previous record, set the quarter before. The company raised its dividend on Friday, citing a commitment to “return excess cash” to shareholders.


  • Dig deeper into the moment

Chevron’s profit of $11.2 billion was only slightly weaker than the previous quarter’s record total. Two big European producers, Shell and TotalEnergies, reported Thursday that their profits more than doubled in the third quarter from the same period the year before.
 
Walmart (and other stores) have decided that if they raise prices, people will blame an outside force, person, or entity and not walmart themselves. So the spread between wholesale and retail has risen, to the benefit of their own profits.

It's like we're in a game of musical chairs before the next recession, and everyone wants to see if they can be the one to skim the most profit before it all goes down.

One should be careful what they choose as a baseline. Supertech had, say, a $17/jug "baseline" but dipped to $14 for one month that the whole of BITOG remembers fondly. Now it's $21, so did it jump four bucks or seven?

Oversupplies are limited so sales have dried up, so for the bargain shopper things look worse than for the chad who just shows up and takes what they have that day.

In a nutshell, I still have over a hundred quarts of oil stashed all around and am riding this out.
 
Exxon’s profit of nearly $20 billion for the July-September period was a record for any quarter, and 10 percent higher than the previous record, set the quarter before. The company raised its dividend on Friday, citing a commitment to “return excess cash” to shareholders.


  • Dig deeper into the moment

Chevron’s profit of $11.2 billion was only slightly weaker than the previous quarter’s record total. Two big European producers, Shell and TotalEnergies, reported Thursday that their profits more than doubled in the third quarter from the same period the year before.

Do you understand how small the lubricants world is, to the rest of what a super major does?
 
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We’ve had a price increase essentially 16 out of the last 20 months.

Wholesale pricing has gone up about ~210%

If anything, pre-Covid retail pricing on oil was absurdly high.

That being said, let’s get into pricing a bit.

What effects cost of lubricants? Well, primarily 2 aspects:
1. Base oil pricing.
2. Additive pricing.

Base oil pricing you can see a general ballpark of in lubes and greases. Additives have been a little more… erratic. In the last 18 months we’ve had several severe additive shortages in the market place. Primarily PCEO and HDEO additive shortages were notable. But we’ve also had industrial additive shortages on EP gear oils, compressor products and some cutting oils. Less notable to the retail consumer.

There are some other costs associated with retail oil:
1. Toll blending fees - plant management, equipment repairs and of course, labor costs. All general costs of doing business are up about 25% in 2 years.

2. Packaging costs have gone up dramatic. As, plastic bottles are made out of oil based products. The cost of 55 gallon drums has essentially doubled. Other containers such as kegs are hard to get. And god help you trying to get grease tubes.

3. Transportation costs have doubled to tripled. It’s about $6 a mile to haul bulk lubricants now commercially.

So, why have lubricants costs doubled, Or more?

Base oil prices are not only affecting the lubricants market. But additives need to be solubilized. Additives increase as base oil does. As well as independently of base oil due to their own plant costs. The cost of throughput blending has gone up. The cost of trucking additives and base oils have gone up. The cost of rail car movement has gone up for both additives and base oils. Due to additive shortages, companies are turning to truck over rail for additives.

And, it costs more to blend the oil. While packing has essentially tripled in costs.

Yep. Retail oil is going to get more expensive. AW46 today, is about the same price as Dexos 1 Gen 2 products were, in 2019, on the wholesale level.
And don't forget to add in the extra bump in prices just to pad profits even more...
 
We’ve had a price increase essentially 16 out of the last 20 months.

Wholesale pricing has gone up about ~210%

If anything, pre-Covid retail pricing on oil was absurdly high.

That being said, let’s get into pricing a bit.

What effects cost of lubricants? Well, primarily 2 aspects:
1. Base oil pricing.
2. Additive pricing.

Base oil pricing you can see a general ballpark of in lubes and greases. Additives have been a little more… erratic. In the last 18 months we’ve had several severe additive shortages in the market place. Primarily PCEO and HDEO additive shortages were notable. But we’ve also had industrial additive shortages on EP gear oils, compressor products and some cutting oils. Less notable to the retail consumer.

There are some other costs associated with retail oil:
1. Toll blending fees - plant management, equipment repairs and of course, labor costs. All general costs of doing business are up about 25% in 2 years.

2. Packaging costs have gone up dramatic. As, plastic bottles are made out of oil based products. The cost of 55 gallon drums has essentially doubled. Other containers such as kegs are hard to get. And god help you trying to get grease tubes.

3. Transportation costs have doubled to tripled. It’s about $6 a mile to haul bulk lubricants now commercially.

So, why have lubricants costs doubled, Or more?

Base oil prices are not only affecting the lubricants market. But additives need to be solubilized. Additives increase as base oil does. As well as independently of base oil due to their own plant costs. The cost of throughput blending has gone up. The cost of trucking additives and base oils have gone up. The cost of rail car movement has gone up for both additives and base oils. Due to additive shortages, companies are turning to truck over rail for additives.

And, it costs more to blend the oil. While packing has essentially tripled in costs.

Yep. Retail oil is going to get more expensive. AW46 today, is about the same price as Dexos 1 Gen 2 products were, in 2019, on the wholesale level.
You nailed it. It can further be summed up by saying “everything we touch” has gone up including insurance and utilities.
 
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