you sure label your self an expert.
I pay attention too.
main point you made that is valid is the storm itself is a long way away and alot of things can happen before
If you quote someone…. Put the WHOLE quote in there. . Again, yes a lot can change days 6-10. I agree.
I know a whole, whole, whole lot more than a vast majority of people about this subject…
That’s no lie.
And I understand those models extremely well. Been using them for 20 years. I know how to read them and understand their weaknesses… And their strengths… I know this extremely well.
I have high confidence in the LONG wave pattern prediction of those models
And that is what steers those storms to n the Western Atlantic. And whether you or I like it or not this upcoming upper level pattern in days 6-10 is looking very, very similar to the one that we had just recently with Hurricane Franklin… Almost a carbon copy.
Again if you are speaking about a distance of a storm traveling 25-50 miles either way 5-10 days out… That’s a whole different circumstance.
That’s winter storm prediction which is far, far, far harder. By a wide margin…
Things can and may change days 6-10. We will see.
But if I was betting on this… And I was playing Texas Hold ‘Em… Let’s say I have a pair of 10s in my hand and the flop goes 10 of hearts, 2 of clubs, 6 of spades…. I feel pretty darn good I’m ahead at this point. Not that my hand can’t be beat because it can be beat. But odds are 4 to 1 that the hand will hold up and win.
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