New Hurricane possibly forming (Lee)

[bbhero]

you sure label your self an expert.
I pay attention too.

main point you made that is valid is the storm itself is a long way away and alot of things can happen before

If you quote someone…. Put the WHOLE quote in there. . Again, yes a lot can change days 6-10. I agree.


I know a whole, whole, whole lot more than a vast majority of people about this subject…

That’s no lie.

And I understand those models extremely well. Been using them for 20 years. I know how to read them and understand their weaknesses… And their strengths… I know this extremely well.


I have high confidence in the LONG wave pattern prediction of those models

And that is what steers those storms to n the Western Atlantic. And whether you or I like it or not this upcoming upper level pattern in days 6-10 is looking very, very similar to the one that we had just recently with Hurricane Franklin… Almost a carbon copy.

Again if you are speaking about a distance of a storm traveling 25-50 miles either way 5-10 days out… That’s a whole different circumstance.

That’s winter storm prediction which is far, far, far harder. By a wide margin…

Things can and may change days 6-10. We will see.
But if I was betting on this… And I was playing Texas Hold ‘Em… Let’s say I have a pair of 10s in my hand and the flop goes 10 of hearts, 2 of clubs, 6 of spades…. I feel pretty darn good I’m ahead at this point. Not that my hand can’t be beat because it can be beat. But odds are 4 to 1 that the hand will hold up and win.

 

[bbhero]

View attachment 177163

GFS here showing a cold front moving east and high pressure building in from the Midwest and ridging eastward too.

If that holds true.. That is what will recurve this storm out away from the coastline. Just like the previous upper level wave pattern did with Franklin.

Time will tell. But it looks like this may well verify.

 

[MSCH]

If you quote someone…. Put the WHOLE quote in there. . Again, yes a lot can change days 6-10. I agree.


I know a whole, whole, whole lot more than a vast majority of people about this subject…

That’s no lie.

And I understand those models extremely well. Been using them for 20 years. I know how to read them and understand their weaknesses… And their strengths… I know this extremely well.


I have high confidence in the LONG wave pattern prediction of those models

And that is what steers those storms to n the Western Atlantic. And whether you or I like it or not this upcoming upper level pattern in days 6-10 is looking very, very similar to the one that we had just recently with Hurricane Franklin… Almost a carbon copy.

Again if you are speaking about a distance of a storm traveling 25-50 miles either way 5-10 days out… That’s a whole different circumstance.

That’s winter storm prediction which is far, far, far harder. By a wide margin…

Things can and may change days 6-10. We will see.
But if I was betting on this… And I was playing Texas Hold ‘Em… Let’s say I have a pair of 10s in my hand and the flop goes 10 of hearts, 2 of clubs, 6 of spades…. I feel pretty darn good I’m ahead at this point. Not that my hand can’t be beat because it can be beat. But odds are 4 to 1 that the hand will hold up and win.

OK, I quoted you... sure seems like a alot of self congratulatory blah blah blah, but then again, so did the first edited quote.

 

[bbhero]

OK, I quoted you... sure seems like a alot of self congratulatory blah blah blah, but then again, so did the first edited quote.

Seriously don’t mean to give you a hard time here.

I do Not mean that as self congratulating….

Just saying what has happened. Like Byron Scott who played for my favorite basketball team the 1980s LA Lakers, “It ain’t talking number2 if you can do it”.

My previous posts on here about this subject matter bear that out.

When I played basketball or very high level volleyball… If I screwed up a play… I would be the first one to say I made the mistake. If I am wrong… which definitely can and does happen… I will own that. But like when I played those sports… Generally speaking I was pretty darn good. I could hold my own. I wasn’t the best at Tidewater Volleyball Association in Virginia Beach playing their highest level of co ed volleyball. No doubt I wasn’t that person. But I was in the top 10 best players in that league with 12 teams each having 4 guys on them. I could hold my own. I know what I could do and did. Same thing here.

I have learned a whole, whole, whole, whole lot from NHC forecast discussions, Weather Prediction Center forecast discussions, and local NWS forecast discussions. Including how to use the forecast models.

I believe the NHC, WPC, SPC and local NWS forecasters do a very, very, good job on average.


And yes I have called the local NWS in Wakefield a couple of time in the winter time to tell them they have done a very good job with very hard winter time forecasting. And I have never ever once called to complain or give them a hard time. Not one time. Matter of fact I recognized the voice of one gentleman who did the local NWS radio broadcasts 20 plus years prior. A really, really nice man.

 

[spasm3]

you sure label your self an expert.
I pay attention too.

main point you made that is valid is the storm itself is a long way away and alot of things can happen before

OK, I quoted you... sure seems like a alot of self congratulatory blah blah blah, but then again, so did the first edited quote.

It looks like following tracking these types of storms is a hobby of his ( @bbhero ). He seems to be sharing his interest.

I find the discussion interesting.

 

[MSCH]

It looks like following tracking these types of storms is a hobby of his ( @bbhero ). He seems to be sharing his interest.

I find the discussion interesting.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ I follow these storms too.. mostly because these storms do threaten my home from time to time... but because I don't know more about it than the NHC can point out in 2 minutes I don't crow about my knowledge.. The NHC is the go to place for storm info that is clear and concise and doesn't contain all the BS or credit seeking some others seem to think is their due.

 

[bbhero]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ I follow these storms too.. mostly because these storms do threaten my home from time to time... but because I don't know more about it than the NHC can point out in 2 minutes I don't crow about my knowledge.. The NHC is the go to place for storm info that is clear and concise and doesn't contain all the BS or credit seeking some others seem to think is their due.

I am not a bobble head doll like you are…

Yes the NHC does a very, very good job overall.

I do know a whole lot more about historical climatology and the computer models than a whole, whole, whole lot of people.

I do not disagree with the people at the NHC, WPC or the SPC hardly much at all.
However if i disagree with them at times… I can back up what I’m thinking by knowing historical climatology extensively well and using those forecast models.

And yes…

I have been well ahead of the curve than even the NHC at times… Just one example case where that happened . Hurricane Harvey was forecast by the NHC and the Weather Channel to be a 80 mph minimum hurricane at landfall 3 days prior to hitting Texas… I told my wife watching that satellite of that storm crossing the Yucatán peninsula that the low level circulation was remarkably intact in all 4 quadrants… I told her that if the upper level shear forecast was correct… with wind shear being less than 5 knots above that storm while over the southwest Gulf of Mexico… I told her that storm would be a category 3 or maybe a category 4 at landfall…

What was Harvey at landfall 3 days later genius???

A cat 4…

Like I have said before on here… The NHC for over 14 plus years routinely stated in their hurricane forecast discussion just how weak their intensity forecasting was…

I didn’t think what I thought about Harvey out of the blue thin air… I had a strong understanding from THE NHCs OWN hurricane forecast discussions just how weak the hurricane forecast models were in that regard…

The NHC has finally got it figured out 5 years ago… They finally started using their own brain power and knowledge to be a part of their intensity forecasting.

I will be the first one to gladly say that with Hurricane Micheal in 2018 the NHC and the Weather Channel did a GREAT job in their forecasting and handling of that storm. Even 5 days out ahead of that storm both of them did a GREAT job of predicting that storm’s ultimate intensity at landfall.

The NHC does a very, very good job overall.

 

[97K15004WD]

Just to be clear, I am not trying to step on toes or upset the apple cart, so to speak.

I am not trying to forecast or prove my worth to the weather world, nor am I interested in competing with anyone regarding that information either.

Here's the latest information from:

Current Storm Information | Tropical Tidbits

The latest information on active storms in the Atlantic Ocean

www.tropicaltidbits.com

 

[MSCH]

Just to be clear, I am not trying to step on toes or upset the apple cart, so to speak.

I am not trying to forecast or prove my worth to the weather world, nor am I interested in competing with anyone regarding that information either.

Here's the latest information from:

Current Storm Information | Tropical Tidbits

The latest information on active storms in the Atlantic Ocean

www.tropicaltidbits.com

yep. first thing in the morning, check the NHC and look at the pretty picture.. nothing near me... good. move on to the rest of my day. nothing for me to worry about yet.

 

[hrv]

I am not a bobble head doll like you are…

Yes the NHC does a very, very good job overall.

I do know a whole lot more about historical climatology and the computer models than a whole, whole, whole lot of people.

I do not disagree with the people at the NHC, WPC or the SPC hardly much at all.
However if i disagree with them at times… I can back up what I’m thinking by knowing historical climatology extensively well and using those forecast models.

And yes…

I have been well ahead of the curve than even the NHC at times… Just one example case where that happened . Hurricane Harvey was forecast by the NHC and the Weather Channel to be a 80 mph minimum hurricane at landfall 3 days prior to hitting Texas… I told my wife watching that satellite of that storm crossing the Yucatán peninsula that the low level circulation was remarkably intact in all 4 quadrants… I told her that if the upper level shear forecast was correct… with wind shear being less than 5 knots above that storm while over the southwest Gulf of Mexico… I told her that storm would be a category 3 or maybe a category 4 at landfall…

What was Harvey at landfall 3 days later genius???

A cat 4…

Like I have said before on here… The NHC for over 14 plus years routinely stated in their hurricane forecast discussion just how weak their intensity forecasting was…

I didn’t think what I thought about Harvey out of the blue thin air… I had a strong understanding from THE NHCs OWN hurricane forecast discussions just how weak the hurricane forecast models were in that regard…

The NHC has finally got it figured out 5 years ago… They finally started using their own brain power and knowledge to be a part of their intensity forecasting.

I will be the first one to gladly say that with Hurricane Micheal in 2018 the NHC and the Weather Channel did a GREAT job in their forecasting and handling of that storm. Even 5 days out ahead of that storm both of them did a GREAT job of predicting that storm’s ultimate intensity at landfall.

The NHC does a very, very good job overall.

I will take the NHC...any day...

 

[alarmguy]

yep. first thing in the morning, check the NHC and look at the pretty picture.. nothing near me... good. move on to the rest of my day. nothing for me to worry about yet. View attachment 177293

Agree, for those that know me, I dont get caught up in media sensationalism. I too look in the morning, sometimes later in the day when it gets closer. I did find it interesting this morning as the chart shows that the computers dont agree on much more than 3 days out with this storm. Though in my layman's mind it already seems to have a bias away from the coast for now. Next Monday or Tuesday will be more interesting to me personally... again, in my mind.

 

[MSCH]

Agree, for those that know me, I dont get caught up in media sensationalism. I too look in the morning, sometimes later in the day when it gets closer. I did find it interesting this morning as the chart shows that the computers dont agree on much more than 3 days out with this storm. Though in my layman's mind it already seems to have a bias away from the coast for now. Next Monday or Tuesday will be more interesting to me personally... again, in my mind.

yes Alarm guy... if you want to protect your sanity you turn the weather TV off. You check one of these dedicated hurricane sites and get the latest update and make decisions based on that.. anyway you look at it, seems when you read the small print you realize the one day track is only a 75 mile wide prediction on either side, so if you get up to the 3 day track and it might as well be the odds on picking the NFL's next Super Bowl winner..

 

[MSCH]

my favorite graphs... return period

 

[MSCH]

and average return period for major hurricanes which goes a long way towards showing why I dont get too worked up about this stuff until it is within one day of home.

 

[alarmguy]

yes Alarm guy... if you want to protect your sanity you turn the weather TV off. You check one of these dedicated hurricane sites and get the latest update and make decisions based on that.. anyway you look at it, seems when you read the small print you realize the one day track is only a 75 mile wide prediction on either side, so if you get up to the 3 day track and it might as well be the odds on picking the NFL's next Super Bowl winner..

Yeah, I have followed NOAA even before the internet with NOAA radio broadcasts on a weather radio and also on marine radios. We have been boating for many decades and used to use the NOAA broadcasts for sea conditions.
I also gave up watching the news. It's all BS and I cant believe people have that garbage on their TVs like all day long if they arent working. We all gone crazy, watching news and manufactured news for entertainment, instead of living life. A significant amount of the population is now controlled by what they see in the media and they dont even know it. Scary stuff, glad I lived my life to the fullest, Im not to positive about the future and why I dont watch. I know how and what I vote for, based on facts.

By the way, thanks for that map. Glad to learn we just moved to a red zone in the coastal Carolinas!!!! *LOL*
We were going to move to Yulee FL and that has half the risk! I actually knew that when we almost bought in Florida. Low risk of bad hurricanes.

 

[wrcsixeight]

Growing up as an avid east coast surfer in the 80's, the tropical systems usually offered the best hope for quality waves, starting mid July.

48 minutes after the hour, I'd rush to the tv just to see the latest info on anything brewing, and there was never enough information.

Now there is no shortage of info available, and the last place i would go for info is the TV and its useless talking heads.

Unfortunately, surf forcasting has helped ruin surfing for me and many others who did not grow up with a smartphone in hand.

All the hyper entitled selfie stick weilding narcissists flock to whereever their website tells them and the crowds, and the attitude of those within, ruin the experience, and make it dangerous.
It is like driving, and finding Entitled monkeys in monstertrucks, playing in intersections saying they have every right to be there.

One thing which really grinds my gears, still, 30 years later after i abandoned the area i grew up, is how the authorities would close the ocean, send cops to fine us when there would be red flag conditions, conditions we would live for.

Seeing flashbing lights on the beach and hearing loudspeakers threatening us with jailtime, and the occassional irate tourist stomping around pulling their hair out because the so called lifeguards, who were largely pool traIned ocean nitwits, were scared and unable to make it through the shorebreak, and would just blow their whistles non stop, gesturing frantically annoying everybody. I have pulled no less than 3 drowning tourists out of the ocean in such conditions, and once, was fined.

Come wintertime the conditions would often be far more dangerous, and no tourists, lifeguards or cops to care about a few surfers clad head to toe in neoprene, sharing some waves.

i still get excited when I see the tropics brewing. They instilled a lifelong interest in meteorology, and travelling the world's coastlines experiencing different cultures, having the ocean deal out regular lessons on the in significance of oneself.

I am considering going to meet the guaranteed swell from Lee somewhere, but there are too many personal obstacles, at the moment, and most beachbreaks on east coast cannot handle huge, longer period, hurricane swells.

The few places which can, will be overcrowded or unaccessible and not worth the now significant hassle.

 

[bbhero]

I will take the NHC...any day...

Go ahead…

I do too…. A very,, very high percentage of the time

But they are not … perfect,

Neither am I..

And has I said multiple times in that post above… The NHC, WPC and SPC all do a very, very good job on average.

It’s information those people give…

Not orders… Not always one hundred percent perfect in ALL circumstances..


Based upon their interpretation of computer models, satellite data and atmospheric data.

Which I have seen where the models not be so “ perfect” many times either.

 

[hrv]

Go ahead…

I do too…. A very,, very high percentage of the time

But they are not … perfect,

Neither am I..

And has I said multiple times in that post above… The NHC, WPC and SPC all do a very, very good job on average.

It’s information those people give…

Not orders… Not always one hundred percent perfect in ALL circumstances..


Based upon their interpretation of computer models, satellite data and atmospheric data.

Which I have seen where the models not be so “ perfect” many times either.

I would not compare you with them...

 

[bbhero]

and average return period for major hurricanes which goes a long way towards showing why I dont get too worked up about this stuff until it is within one day of home. View attachment 177320

I certainly agree.

I will say this that in 2003 with Hurricane Isabel the NHC and local MWS offices were sounding the alarm 4 days ahead of time.

They all did a great, great job of trying to get people to understand just how severe that hit was going to be. .

And it was the worst since Hazel in 1954.

 

[bbhero]

I would not compare you with them...

I don’t care….

I am not perfect either.

And seriously I go to the NHC first… Then the NCEP model page… Then to another page to look at the other models. Then I go back to the NHC.

They are not infallible or perfect….

IT’s information… Not ordered perfection.

It’s model interpretation… Not perfection either…