2021 Tesla Model S, is it now the best Tesla choice?

[JeffKeryk]

I'm not sure that it's that big of an advantage. New changes are made every year to a car. It's just that they do a total body platform/face lift change every 3-5 years. But year to year, you always have changes to a car. That's why they always ask you what year the car is. Sometimes they do mid year changes in which case it's important to know the date of manufacture. Like the infamous balance shaft problem on Mercedes engines, at one point in the middle of the production year they changed the part so you could figure out by the serial number of the engine if you had the bad part or not.

Two major things that I like about regular car companies is that there's a dealer network so they compete on prices. You're stuck with list price. You can also get repair manuals and 3rd party manufacturers also make parts for a car that has some volume. There's a very limited amount of parts available on rockauto for Tesla. For instance headlamps are a typical crash part, don't see those on there. You're basically stuck with the manufacturer who can charge you whatever they like.

You are comparing Tesla to other car manufacturers. Tesla is different; they are not trying to be like other cars.
Sandy Munro made the continuous improvement analysis; he is considered perhaps the leading auto manufacturing analyst.
Manufacturers buy his analysis to improve their companies.

I like your MBZ balance shaft point. Tesla has something like 17 moving parts in their drivetrain. Pretty much bullet proof.
Regarding dealer network, you are paying for those big beautiful buildings and salaries. Not to mention new car inventory carrying costs, dealer revolving credit to buy the cars, etc.

Regarding parts, the main problem Tesla has is getting replacement parts to body shops. This is a big complaint from owners.
Regarding headlights, the Tesla Model 3 has been dubbed by the Insurance Institute of Highway Safety (IIHS) as the car with the best headlights in the market today. All Tesla vehicles feature LED reflector headlights for both high beam and low beam functionality. LEDs last a looooong time.
Due to regenerative braking, brake pads last a minimum of 150K miles, many expect 300K.
Normal maintenance items are few. The 1st scheduled service for our car is at 13K miles; the service center inspects the car; that's it. No parts.

I appreciate your thoughts. These cars are different.

 

[Wolf359]

You are comparing Tesla to other car manufacturers. Tesla is different; they are not trying to be like other cars.
Sandy Munro made the continuous improvement analysis; he is considered perhaps the leading auto manufacturing analyst.
Manufacturers buy his analysis to improve their companies.

I like your MBZ balance shaft point. Tesla has something like 17 moving parts in their drivetrain. Pretty much bullet proof.
Regarding dealer network, you are paying for those big beautiful buildings and salaries. Not to mention new car inventory carrying costs, dealer revolving credit to buy the cars, etc.

Regarding parts, the main problem Tesla has is getting replacement parts to body shops. This is a big complaint from owners.
Regarding headlights, the Tesla Model 3 has been dubbed by the Insurance Institute of Highway Safety (IIHS) as the car with the best headlights in the market today. All Tesla vehicles feature LED reflector headlights for both high beam and low beam functionality. LEDs last a looooong time.
Due to regenerative braking, brake pads last a minimum of 150K miles, many expect 300K.
Normal maintenance items are few. The 1st scheduled service for our car is at 13K miles; the service center inspects the car; that's it. No parts.

I appreciate your thoughts. These cars are different.

Actually Mercedes has pretty decent headlights. They're the LED multibeam ones that are in use in Europe but not allowed by the US yet. There's a hack to enable them. People that have them enabled say they're amazing. I still like my heated headlamp washers which Tesla never had as an option.

The dealer network discount parts. You can find many other auto dealers discount anywhere from 20-30% off list price for dealer only parts. Doesn't seem like Tesla does that. Plus I think Tesla plays it pretty close to the chest with repair manuals. For $60 a day, you can get access to the full Mercedes dealer repair manual online, but most people just pay under $10 for a full knock off copy on eBay.

 

[JeffKeryk]

The dealer network discount parts. You can find many other auto dealers discount anywhere from 20-30% off list price for dealer only parts. Doesn't seem like Tesla does that. Plus I think Tesla plays it pretty close to the chest with repair manuals. For $60 a day, you can get access to the full Mercedes dealer repair manual online, but most people just pay under $10 for a full knock off copy on eBay.

What parts do you need to buy for a Tesla? What service and or repairs do you need to make?
In 2019, the company switched from recommending yearly checkups to only recommending particular services on an as-needed basis.
These are cabin air filter, tire rotation, brake fluid test, AC service and winter service (cold-weather regions should clean and lubricate their car’s brake calipers every 12 months or 12,500 miles). That's it.

The only fluid you can put in a Tesla is windshield warsher fluid. No belts, plugs, air filters, etc.
Parts can be bought st service centers. I have no idea what they sell. No owner I know of buys anything.
The biggest issues are due to accidents. I know getting body panels and glass has been a problem.

I don't mean to beat the point to death, but these cars are different. Comparing them to traditional cars is apples and oranges.
Mercedes are legendary, world class cars. No doubt.

 

[Wolf359]

What parts do you need to buy for a Tesla? What service and or repairs do you need to make?
In 2019, the company switched from recommending yearly checkups to only recommending particular services on an as-needed basis.
These are cabin air filter, tire rotation, brake fluid test, AC service and winter service (cold-weather regions should clean and lubricate their car’s brake calipers every 12 months or 12,500 miles). That's it.

The only fluid you can put in a Tesla is windshield warsher fluid. No belts, plugs, air filters, etc.
Parts can be bought st service centers. I have no idea what they sell. No owner I know of buys anything.
The biggest issues are due to accidents. I know getting body panels and glass has been a problem.

I don't mean to beat the point to death, but these cars are different. Comparing them to traditional cars is apples and oranges.
Mercedes are legendary, world class cars. No doubt.

Well in the city, crash parts are a common need. Like I said, headlights get smashed in fender benders and mirrors get knocked off. Stuff happens when you park on the street.

 

[Rmay635703]

Ever wonder how it will end? Their PE ratio is in the 300 range and most car companies are in the 30 range.

You realize Tesla isn’t a car company, never has been (no I’m not a Tesla fan)

Right now the entire stock market is over monetized due to ignorant Gen Z’s dumping cash into valueless stocks, and valueless homes.

I forget the exact percentages but PE ratios across the board are at levels never seen before, a PE Ratio Of 300 right now is not only common but doesn’t even bat anyone’s eye.

I have been lazy with it letting things ride but I am strongly considering a full exit of my cash from stocks, bonds, etc.
Haveing a month or two of physical spendable goods/currency In hand may be a good idea soon.

Just saying, stars are aligning with a depression and stagflation considering how terrible the fundamentals have been over the last 1.5 years.

 

[PimTac]

I don't really do stocks anymore. Got burned a few too many times. Just mutual fund. I'm in the Warren Buffett camp which says don't buy anything you don't understand. Don't understand how the stock makes any sense. This is probably part of the greater fool theory, just don't want to be there when that ends.

It all depends on your asset allocation and risk tolerance. If TSLA is a very small portion of your total investments then you are fine. Those who put everything on TSLA are walking the tightrope.

 

[CKN]

$69,420, you say? Elon is trolling..

I'd rather ave a nice pickup and just pay for gas at that price.....personally.

 

[CKN]

You realize Tesla isn’t a car company, never has been (no I’m not a Tesla fan)

Right now the entire stock market is over monetized due to ignorant Gen Z’s dumping cash into valueless stocks, and valueless homes.

I forget the exact percentages but PE ratios across the board are at levels never seen before, a PE Ratio Of 300 right now is not only common but doesn’t even bat anyone’s eye.

I have been lazy with it letting things ride but I am strongly considering a full exit of my cash from stocks, bonds, etc.
Haveing a month or two of physical spendable goods/currency In hand may be a good idea soon.

Just saying, stars are aligning with a depression and stagflation considering how terrible the fundamentals have been over the last 1.5 years.

Explain please. Here in the greater Salt Lake area prices are up 25% from 5 years ago. And we are not the only state with this increase. It sounds like you don't own a home-or are in a depressed area....

 

[dareo]

You realize Tesla isn’t a car company, never has been (no I’m not a Tesla fan)

Right now the entire stock market is over monetized due to ignorant Gen Z’s dumping cash into valueless stocks, and valueless homes.

I forget the exact percentages but PE ratios across the board are at levels never seen before, a PE Ratio Of 300 right now is not only common but doesn’t even bat anyone’s eye.

I have been lazy with it letting things ride but I am strongly considering a full exit of my cash from stocks, bonds, etc.
Haveing a month or two of physical spendable goods/currency In hand may be a good idea soon.

Just saying, stars are aligning with a depression and stagflation considering how terrible the fundamentals have been over the last 1.5 years.

P/E Ratios are still far from what was seen in the Dot-Com bubble. Not saying stocks are cheap, especially techs, but they can move a lot further before they are overvalued. AAPL is at 36.7x P/E, not bad considering they are very profitable and the dominant force in what they do. TSLA P/E is 1154.9x but they are not really profitable yet so its easy for that number to be so skewed. AMZN is pretty lofty at 128x but they, like apple, just dominate their space.

Homes are always going to be worth something. More in better areas of course. Bonds are offering returnless risk right now so i'd think about repositioning those while the yields are nothing.

The whole world is printing money and yields are falling near and often below zero percent. I think this will be big inflation over the next 10 years. Being in cash will cost you. So will bonds. Stocks might beat this inflation if your lucky in your picks. Invest at your own risk, i am no financial professional, ect ect.

 

[Rmay635703]

[QUOTE="dareo, post: 5553443, member: 18063]
The whole world is printing money and yields are falling near and often below zero percent. I think this will be big inflation over the next 10 years. Being in cash will cost you. So will bonds. Stocks might beat this inflation if your lucky in your picks. Invest at your own risk, i am no financial professional, ect ect.
[/QUOTE]

less than 1% of my money is in bonds, I still have a CD earning over 3% and my play money is in Mix of high risk stocks that have performed poorly this year.

Housing costs are up but about 75% of housing prices nationwide will drop in the next 18 months depending on how the Ongoing pandemic Is handled. Thus far the mortgages and rent are government paid which both inflates prices and reduces the supply of housing.
(The percentage of zombie home occupiers is quite high and since they don’t pay rent/mortgages now they can’t afford to move either)
In most areas the actual number of houses sold is quite small (9 in my county 2 months ago) but the asking prices are much higher due to a shortage of sellers and individuals who want to move but are underwater

Also I’m not talking being solely in cash for the next 10, However metrics point to stagflation where both the economy stagnates, stocks drop a lot and inflation is high. This means some money or physical valuable Raw materials in pocket is worthwhile Since it will loose the least during a stock landslide + inflation.

Choosing when to exit and re enter will be the problem. I expect a hard Rapid sell off That will be hard to avoid or predict when.

where there is high risk There can be great gains but I don’t live on the market and spend the time required to time a collapse and rather sit out the next 6-18 months on low interest but moderately safe investments with some hard goods.

 

[UncleDave]

At between 8 and 23 how much money can gen Z be dumping into anything?

 

[Rmay635703]

At between 8 and 23 how much money can gen Z be dumping into anything?

Young investors pile into stocks, seeing 'generational-buying moment' instead of risk

The major online brokers saw a major jump in new users during the coronavirus sell-off, many of who were of a younger cohort.

www.google.com

The percentage of youngpeople who invest is much higher than the number of their elders who are in the market at all.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/10/15/smead-nightmare-us-stock-valuations-driven-by-young-dumb-investors.html

it’s driving chaos which could be good or bad depending on How the lemming like behavior plays out.

a lot of little fish weighmore than one big one

 

[UncleDave]

Where does it say Gen Z ?

It talks about millennials using robin hood.

The e-broker’s new accounts proved to “skew younger” over the last quarter,” TD Ameritrade chief market strategist JJ Kinahan told CNBC.

There are no stats in here that discuss who has what invested already or who has more in total.

The second article you added talks about millennials.

 

[JeffKeryk]

The stock market is owned by the wealthy (top 1% own more than 50%) and institutional investors (including pension funds).
The vast majority of Americans who own stock do so through employer 401K plans. They probably don't even know what they own.

 

[JHZR2]

I really like what tesla did for EV's, but it's no secret that the model S can destroy itself within 1 lap on the nurburgring. Granted, that's 12 miles of going flat out and other than Pikes Peak Ii don't think anything else in the world comes close. The model 3 makes it to the end but with reduced power for half a lap. Regardless, 2 laps on 1 full battery so between 25 and 36 miles of range at those power levels...

That’s very interesting and telling... not that I’ll be driving on the ‘ring anytime soon, nor that fast. Every time that I punch it in my 135i, I realize how 300/300 is too much practically speaking for the public roads. And, having a car with 67hp, I know that that level,is serviceable,,but not quite enough. So the sweet spot is in between.

At $69k, the model s is still steep, but as a 400 mile car, it becomes a realm of practicality that IMO a 300 mile car is not.

Now add a 10hp APU for battery charging and cabin heat, and I’ll buy one.

 

[alarmguy]

P/E Ratios are still far from what was seen in the Dot-Com bubble. Not saying stocks are cheap, especially techs, but they can move a lot further before they are overvalued. AAPL is at 36.7x P/E, not bad considering they are very profitable and the dominant force in what they do. TSLA P/E is 1154.9x but they are not really profitable yet so its easy for that number to be so skewed. AMZN is pretty lofty at 128x but they, like apple, just dominate their space.

Homes are always going to be worth something. More in better areas of course. Bonds are offering returnless risk right now so i'd think about repositioning those while the yields are nothing.

The whole world is printing money and yields are falling near and often below zero percent. I think this will be big inflation over the next 10 years. Being in cash will cost you. So will bonds. Stocks might beat this inflation if your lucky in your picks. Invest at your own risk, i am no financial professional, ect ect.

I kind of agree with most of what you said. The only thing that I do not is the "cash" statement.
its easy to get in and out of cash and if inflation takes off in the way you are saying using the word "big inflation" then getting into cash at some point will make the most sense. stocks will get hammered and interest rates will go through the roof and so will the interest you collect on your cash.
I agree, historically, with all the BS money printing, inflation should go through the roof, if it doesnt, we have huge problems in this country.

 

[Wolf359]

I agree, historically, with all the BS money printing, inflation should go through the roof, if it doesnt, we have huge problems in this country.

Historically you have a good history of being wrong. The reason they don't expect inflation to go through the roof is because of all the unemployment. You might have missed that part. Inflation takes off when everyone needs to be paid more so prices need to go up to account for that. When there's plenty of people out there looking for work, that keeps somewhat of a lid on inflation. Many don't expect the economy to take off for a few more years. The stock market is a big disconnect from the economy because it's basically the big companies who are doing well. The small businesses are getting killed but they're not really reflected in the stock market.

 

[Cujet]

That’s

At $69k, the model s is still steep, but as a 400 mile car, it becomes a realm of practicality that IMO a 300 mile car is not.

Lest anyone be fooled, none of them can go 400 or even 300 miles at today's interstate speeds. 220 is the real world distance at 80mph. At which point you'd best have a charger in range. Yes if you deplete the battery you the longest range Tesla cars can reach in the upper 200's, under ideal conditions. For the rest of us that need heat or AC, have headwinds, crosswinds or hills, or operate in cold temperatures, and like to stay with left lane traffic, the range is 220 and no more.

There is a reason I pass every Tesla on the interstate. They go slow to make the next charger.

 

[alarmguy]

Historically you have a good history of being wrong. The reason they don't expect inflation to go through the roof is because of all the unemployment. You might have missed that part. Inflation takes off when everyone needs to be paid more so prices need to go up to account for that. When there's plenty of people out there looking for work, that keeps somewhat of a lid on inflation. Many don't expect the economy to take off for a few more years. The stock market is a big disconnect from the economy because it's basically the big companies who are doing well. The small businesses are getting killed but they're not really reflected in the stock market.

I’m not talking about the present, historically the Fed has raised interest rates too slowly once the economy starts heating up and the markets flooded with money = over inflation, the worst case ever was back in the 80s when they really had to slam the breaks in the economy and we had interest rates fir mortgages at 15%
They even admitted now they are going to hold rates longer and hope for inflation because without it we are doomed.
The entire world economy is in shambles, if it wasn’t for the US Debt and taking out loans on the young people’s future .. well ... anyway we are in uncharted territory ands it’s going to be an interesting ride over the next decade...

 

[dareo]

Inflation will happen, regardless of what they say the rate is, prices keep going up. The money creation is like adding more water to fixed quantity of kool-aid mix. You end up with more liquid [dollars] but its not same strength[more dollars required].

I don't think we will see high interest rates ever again. Everything would be wrecked if we had 10-15% long term rates. To go back to a 15% mortgage we would need to go back to asset prices that are about 1/3 the current level. Given most things are financed around 75% LTV, there would be endless foreclosures in a high rate market. 1% interest = 10% asset value price, as a rough estimate.

1.75% FHA and VA 30 year fixed is now on some lenders rate sheets. in 08 i was pleased to get 5.75% These plunging rates can allow even higher housing prices. People who purchased years ago under higher rates (lower prices) can now refinance and collect a big lump sum of money. They can go spend that money and push prices higher.

I believe the powers that be will love to see inflation run and will not react fast to stop it. Only equities will outpace this inflation and only the winning stocks. Good luck picking them!