Originally Posted By: cmhj
Next year, probably after my spring trips are done, I’ll post some pattern relationships. While I don’t use patterns very much as they aren’t very reliable it might be of interest to some.
Due to some schedule changes I’m doing this now.
What prompts this was the busted monthly pattern that was all over TV last fall that we had been trading long before most were aware of it due to our S/T cycle work.
I’m not one to watch much TV that’s financially related. The few times I have watched anything the wife or one of the staff will sit back and wait for me to start yelling as to how stupid or wrong someone is. For their sanity I usually thumb thru them.
Because of my lack of interest in TV financial programs I wonder if anyone has mentioned the 4 month low/low pattern, which started about 5 months after the 07 hi?
If not I’m surprised yet ironically it had fit many of our I/T and some L/T pivot projections pretty close.
The most recent examples are the last 6 I/T &/or L/T lows. They have all been about 4 months apart and on average if given a 2 week variance hits pretty darn close. By using S/T pivot points we’ve been able to hit all of these with one exception within 1.5 days of our first projections some of which I shared here either in real time or a day in advance. Then as the date arrives we have other tools to get the entry/reversal to within a few hours in many cases.
Early/mid March 08 was the first I/T low, which is when I first offered my assistance on this site. Then mid July 08, which barely fits our I/T criteria of a month or more but was important to the bigger picture. 4 months later comes mid-late Nov. 08 followed by early March 09, early/mid July 09 and early Nov. 09.
The early Nov. 09 low was very important in our work. As we worked our way thru Aug. 09 we started taking a cautious stance until we saw what the system said at the late Oct./early Nov. projected I/T low pivot point. In hindsight it was meaningless within the big picture per price but very important in our ongoing wave projections.
Another issue is that over the years this phasing has been fairly predictable as to when it’ll go off course. Due to feedback received here I’ll not release any specifics in public.
However, betweeen now and mid 2011 there's a very good chance the expected low periods will be a hi once maybe twice throwing all amatuer projecting into the trash.
The 4-ish month cycle has been a pretty good cycle for several years for S/T & I/T traders. There have been times when it wasn’t even noticed for a couple/few periods or inverts as suggested above but will again in a fairly reliable sequence return to some degree.
Like most issues the key in playing this cycle setting is in knowing what the larger cycles are saying before taking a large long/short bet.
GL
Next year, probably after my spring trips are done, I’ll post some pattern relationships. While I don’t use patterns very much as they aren’t very reliable it might be of interest to some.
Due to some schedule changes I’m doing this now.
What prompts this was the busted monthly pattern that was all over TV last fall that we had been trading long before most were aware of it due to our S/T cycle work.
I’m not one to watch much TV that’s financially related. The few times I have watched anything the wife or one of the staff will sit back and wait for me to start yelling as to how stupid or wrong someone is. For their sanity I usually thumb thru them.
Because of my lack of interest in TV financial programs I wonder if anyone has mentioned the 4 month low/low pattern, which started about 5 months after the 07 hi?
If not I’m surprised yet ironically it had fit many of our I/T and some L/T pivot projections pretty close.
The most recent examples are the last 6 I/T &/or L/T lows. They have all been about 4 months apart and on average if given a 2 week variance hits pretty darn close. By using S/T pivot points we’ve been able to hit all of these with one exception within 1.5 days of our first projections some of which I shared here either in real time or a day in advance. Then as the date arrives we have other tools to get the entry/reversal to within a few hours in many cases.
Early/mid March 08 was the first I/T low, which is when I first offered my assistance on this site. Then mid July 08, which barely fits our I/T criteria of a month or more but was important to the bigger picture. 4 months later comes mid-late Nov. 08 followed by early March 09, early/mid July 09 and early Nov. 09.
The early Nov. 09 low was very important in our work. As we worked our way thru Aug. 09 we started taking a cautious stance until we saw what the system said at the late Oct./early Nov. projected I/T low pivot point. In hindsight it was meaningless within the big picture per price but very important in our ongoing wave projections.
Another issue is that over the years this phasing has been fairly predictable as to when it’ll go off course. Due to feedback received here I’ll not release any specifics in public.
However, betweeen now and mid 2011 there's a very good chance the expected low periods will be a hi once maybe twice throwing all amatuer projecting into the trash.
The 4-ish month cycle has been a pretty good cycle for several years for S/T & I/T traders. There have been times when it wasn’t even noticed for a couple/few periods or inverts as suggested above but will again in a fairly reliable sequence return to some degree.
Like most issues the key in playing this cycle setting is in knowing what the larger cycles are saying before taking a large long/short bet.
GL
