Investors....come in please!

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We'll blow through 1301.5 tomorrow like the wind.

I have sold all my 2X longs and bought more 2X shorts.

I'm looking at some new junk to buy when we dive......

I loved the panic selling these last dives. People selling stuff at fire sale prices. Bring it on.
 
Hey Paul, give me a bottom target. I gave you a top to sell. :) If you recall when I blew in the door Mon afternoon after my Jersey trip I said we'd go back down.

Until we get thru the current phase window I''m selling my top targets but buying near bottom signals.
 
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Current phase window, just as a reminder could run into next Mon. Remember we have several for the next month or so. There's also one in mid April which I've not published here but this is the one that interests me the most.

Hitting the road, be back tonight.
 
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1292 is a level of interest. That was Monday's mid day low. Don't know what'll happen in here but my trading partners will be calling me if I need to make an execution. Just went flat @ spooz 1290 from my sell, which is about 1288 cash.

chow
 
I keep mentioning Mon., GEZ I got too many irons in the fire. Tues. was the Fed induced pop., but the price targets remained. Figured I should fix that comment or someone that knows nothing about trading would jump on me.

Just went long @ spooz 1291, single contract only. Lots of ammo to load up if needed.

Once I have confirmation I'll not even be doing much day trading. I'll lock and load and ride the waves.

Now I gotta' fly
 
Not anymore...........
33.gif
 
Just have a min., then off again.

The trading partners loaded the boat early this AM in all our day accounts, futures accounts almost at the lows and with a morning swing into all our Rydex accounts. Looks like the AM Rydex entry was around 1283, which is almost the low so far for today.

Likely they'll do something with our EOD Profunds accounts & 401K accounts but not sure how much.

Since I'm not running the show today I'll speculate if we close green it'll only be a nibble on top of what was done Fri. & Mon.

If a red close I'll speculate it'll be a split based on between the low, which was 1282 as of now and the high. So wherever the hi comes in let's say 1310. If we close at 1290 they'll probably go in at about a 50% level total.

Will have some more stuff for tonight if I'm not tired.

chow
 
Originally Posted By: cmhj
Just have a min., then off again.

The trading partners loaded the boat early this AM in all our day accounts, futures accounts almost at the lows and with a morning swing into all our Rydex accounts. Looks like the AM Rydex entry was around 1283, which is almost the low so far for today.

Likely they'll do something with our EOD Profunds accounts & 401K accounts but not sure how much.

Since I'm not running the show today I'll speculate if we close green it'll only be a nibble on top of what was done Fri. & Mon.

If a red close I'll speculate it'll be a split based on between the low, which was 1282 as of now and the high. So wherever the hi comes in let's say 1310. If we close at 1290 they'll probably go in at about a 50% level total.

Will have some more stuff for tonight if I'm not tired.

chow


Good advice...."If we close at 1290 they'll probably go in at about a 50% level total." THAT'S huge relative to your statements over the last few weeks..........
 
No new EOD buys ,, in fact we're raising a fair amount of cash from the am entries but no shorts right now 1325 is a problem right now but would like to see 1350 in 1-2 days

later
 
Forgive me if I ramble and repeat a bit. I’m tired and have so much on my plate I’m not even sure what day it is. Had sat up all Mon. night trading futures and accumulating big contracts after having driven to New Burn No. Carolina and back on Mon. That was an 1,100 mile non stop drive plus I sat up all night. Then had a 3 hour nap and drove to No. Jersey & back on Tues. another 250 mile run. Yesterday I ran the trading room. Today another run to No. Jersey and back by early this afternoon. Then out the door again to handle some business ventures. Trading all night and all day, which I do when I think we’re near a turn. It’s no wonder I’m turning grey!!!!!!!

Will be taking a trip to Wis. in about 6 weeks to visit my favorite watering hole for a few extended sessions with my old friends. The one above knows full well I need a break. Heck, the wife even bought me a bottle of booze this past weekend!! Now that’s a partner.

Most are likely confused from the constant up and down AKA volatility we’ve seen since the March 10 low. Heck, even I’m a bit confused. This March 13-ish cycle is not making it easy for me. But I did say over the weekend things might get pretty dramatic! It would be wild if today’s cycle hit turns out to be a S/T low and a S/T hi. I’ve seen it before.

Well gang,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, aahhhhhh,,,,,,,,,,, errrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, I hope my futures short cash out and initial long entry this AM wasn’t ignored. I’ll bet it was!!!

We did nothing with our EOD accounts today. In fact a fair amount of cash was raised from the AM buys as we were in with both boots. While I tend to go all in long or short I want either the confirmation signal or a bottom signal before I’ll hold a full boat for more than 1-2 days. While it’s not my style or any of my trading partners styles, if we have to do a full load at higher prices so be it without a bottom signal.

I was able to get back in time to do a fast review, consulted a bit with my one partner and it was decided that even though 1350 might be seen in a couple days we’d play it safe and back off.

Now, if you recall I had mentioned where news announcements will sometimes come in right around a pivot period and make the trade very effective. I don’t know why that is, might the human psychology thing again? Heck if I know. Anyway it happened again last night and again today around 11 AM giving us VST traders more gains in 1 day than most will see in any week or maybe month.

It’s all about opportunity and knowing what to do with it.

This 13-ish cycle might turn out to be a secondary low. Can’t say for sure. If we’re up tomorrow then the next entry point is likely to be late next week or very early the week after.

It’s going to be much harder now to project when these entries will be or at least I think it will be.

Regardless, my bear suit just went out to the cleaners. Yup, I’m ready to lock and load other than for a little day trading and a bit of Rydex and EOD accounts adjustments as we go into what should be a confirmation low swing in April.

Now, I’m not saying Mon. or Tues. AM was the low, as we didn’t get a bottom signal & from what I see having reviewed today’s data still don’t have one. But it sure would be cool if Mon./Tues. turns out to be the low as the cycles projected.

1265 is still key.

I will give you a strategy we’ve implemented in all accounts. Any EOD buys taken on Mon. will now become a core hold for several months. Some shuffling was done today to make this accommodation add up. Our core hold is about 20% non-leveraged. If we blow thru 1265 the pain should be short lived.

Then our plan is until we get confirmation or a bottom signal to trade around the core hold.

Buying weakness and selling strength until either signal is seen will continue much as I’ve demonstrated since mid Jan. No MO MO trading in our group as it just doesn’t work and won’t for several months, as you’ll see.

As we buy dips, the buys will be added to the core. My plan on the next fair sized dip is to take the core to 45-50%.

Once we get confirmation or a bottom signal the core will be shifted to a full leveraged hold along with all available cash.

The trading partners and I agreed a few weeks ago there’d be a limit as to how much I’ll be posting on a public forum. That end is coming near but not done as of tonight.

I’ll have some more non-trade related things I can share with you in a few days. I need to eat something, get some sleep and tall cold drink. Think the Southern and DP first sounds good. After all, one must have priorities.

chow
 
Ah got a cold drink so now I’m ready to kick some arse.

Here’s just some more stuff that some might find usefull. I think if you go back and piece all my noise together, take some time and read it in your spare time you’ll see where trading the market is really logical.

Earlier I had talked about what to some and myself to a small degree is looking very confusing since the March 10 low. Please, consider the following, as it’ll make more sense when you look back at my annual projection I posted a few days ago and what I’m going to add here as well.

BTW I might have to update the projection model if what I sense happens in the next week comes into play.

Ever watch a rodeo? I’m sure most have to some extent. Let’s pretend the start gate is at the bottom of a hill. The hill is very wavy with gulleys and sharp inclines all the way to the top. At any point it never comes to a level lower than the start gate.

Note how the horse comes flying out of the gate. Then as the ride goes on the horse’s gyrations tend to ease off? Yet once in a while he’ll get his breath back & kick up again for a short period of time then maybe fall to his knees, get up and buck again. Also, the rider never goes below the elevation level that he held at the gate, which you could reference to as the start of the run or maybe, this is a big maybe March 10 if you’re looking at it from a market close perspective, which most do. Then he’ll finally decide that the rider is more determined than he is so up we’ll go for a while before he gets another attitude or burr in his saddle.

This is how many bull markets start. The bull will try to toss the weak hands off. You must be disciplined, firm with your conviction, have a firm grip on the rope and trust your system, if you have one.

Sometimes we’ll get what I like to call a timid bull. This is what I’m looking for this time.

With the cycles, the way they are lining up I was expecting a Tue. or Wed. low with an outside chance we could bleed into early next week, even though I had started buying in a day or 2 earlier. Now, so far the low did come in very early Tues. so the cycles, are working at least to this point.

The Fed threw us a curve ball but as I said Tues. afternoon when I was pulling some cash back into my account I said it was just more S/T noise. We got the same again Wed. night, which brought everything down and again Thurs. morning, which turned everything back up.

Let’s go back to psychology 101. If the markets have been going down for months I should continue to concentrate on shorts. Right?

A few days ago I talked about a friend of mine that gave me some strange looks when he wanted to bail in 02. This is the guy I said something to like, fine then why not sell me your shares. He was one of many that ignored my late Feb. 2000 bear alert and kept adding into his 401K on a monthly basis all the way down. He kept saying, something like but I’m buying cheaper, would smile at me but then at the bottom was getting concerned.

Let’s go back to the timid bull. Whenever we hit rock bottom we’d get an initial burst then settle down. Then we’ll zig zag all over the place and to many it’ll seem like nothing is happening when looking at the big picture. The weak bulls will bail and those still in the bear mind set will be shorting into another hole.

A timid bull will not show any conviction for a long time other 2-5 day runs in the beginning. Then he’ll need to take a break and come back at you just as the old bear mentality has kicked back in. I’ve seen timid bulls take 2-3 months before they wake up and we might be in the starting phase of one like this right now.

I never short going into what I expect will be a cycle low other than VST trades like I did Wed. AM at 1335-ish. That trade was a given.

I’ll reverse and slowly buy in early, when it looks like we’re getting close, with the big picture in mind and take some S/T pain with my initial longs if I must instead of getting caught with my shorts down.

See, even though I’m very good at VST and day trading, I’m more of an intermediate term trader. Even though intermediate trading isn’t as profitable, it’s less stressful. I’ll hold a trade for several weeks even months and bail or reverse at times, which I’ve done a lot the past 5-6 years. When I get bored I’ll put on my trader shoes for a week or 2. I’ll do some day trading & VST trading every week or so just to stay sharp.

Day trading these gyrations is great if you know when & where to get on and off or long or short. I’ve seen may traders buy into short instruments after the market heads down or long when it goes up. MO MO traders got their heads handed to them in early 2000, mid 2002 and again last summer, which I talked about a bit a few days ago in my psychology comments. While MO MO trading isn’t always bad, max gains aren’t made that way and it’s toooooooooo easy to get whipsawed in a sideways or timid bull market.

How do we know we’re in a timid bull market? It’s mostly in the cycle projections. Right now it sure looks like we have one in the corral.

When a trader gets whipsawed enough they become chicken. They trust no one and sit on the sides licking their wounds. Hey, I’ve been there. I’ve done that. I have some battle scars that run deeper than the Grand Canyon.

Everyone says to use a stop. Not to be disrespectful but stops are for those that can’t read the market. I used stops until gramps taught me how to read the market and I learn more every year.

Note, every time I’ve given a price level how the market gets right there or about there and turns both at my price level and in my time window. Like my low call in Jan., my Feb. high sell call, my Feb. high re-test level calls a few weeks ago, my 1335-ish call after the Fed pop last Tues. and again with my AM 1291 futures buy Thurs. AM which is about 1288 cash. Thurs low was 1282, which is close enough for me and not bad since I was trading off projections & cycles only plus I had to get out the door.

Now, can I do the above every day? No, 90% is still 90% but Vega would run me out of town on a rail if I could count cards like this.

I won’t set a stop if I’m out of the office, as some times it’ll get run and then reverse. What I’ll do is have my wife simply take me out of a trade be it long or short when my target is hit or approached and I’ll re-enter long or short when I’m back at my desk.

The operators are a bunch or crooks so I use mental stops instead of setting a stop out, which works fine. Again, you simply need to know option strategies, geometry, Fibonacci numbers, cycle projections “on all time frames” and the rest will usually fall in place if you allow a little cushion.

I see so many traders make a hard point about setting a mental stop at some point. More times than not they’ll get stopped out, only for the market to reverse in 5-10 min. and make what could have been a good trade, just another mark in the red column. The only winner was the broker with his commission going both ways.

Knowing options strategy, geometry and cycles are the most important for a S/T and intermediate term traders.

Many will argue with me but I say prove me wrong. Show me a way that works better. Not saying I’m perfect as I’m not. Until I hit 100% on a monthly basis I need to keep working. It’s likely I’ll die with a pencil & slide rule in my hand. Yup, I’m from the old school. The hot shots can take their computer-generated garbage and fill a hole. The human gut with a little knowledge works better than they do.

It’s very likely this bull run, if Mon. was the low, will have several zigzags before any significant upside is seen.

1 When I look out several months we still have cycles that are in a down turn from last year. So in a sense we’re working a counter trend play. However, we also have enough cycles that are now working up that we should counter the negative ones or at least go into a flat congestive period for several weeks, maybe even a few months.

2 Pattern buys are usually real ragged and it can be several months before we get a good lift off. Also, and I know few want to hear this. When I look back at the type, degree and speed of correction we just had I can highly suggest the following. It’s very typical for these types of runs to take twice as long for it to reach the prior top as it did for the correction phase to occur. This would also give paragraph 1 a great deal of merit.

This is why in early Jan. I kept saying the market will go lower and kept constantly giving short term trade calls. I was hope full some saw I knew what I was doing and raised some cash to re-position at lower levels and with a clear head.

Finally, all my members that are contributing to a 401K plan do not have an automatic market injection. All contributions go into a money market fund. They then insert cash at what appears to be at selected low points instead of on a monthly theme if we’re invested.

Adding 401K money manually goes against what the houses and over paid advisors want you to do but who gives a rats behind about their interests? I sure don’t. Ya’ it’s a little work but it’s just another way to beat the market, even if only by a point or 2 when looking at the big picture.

That’s all for tonight.

Where’s my bartender? I have to hit the road again tomorrow. Sheesh dang kids,



Chow
 
Wow - thanks.

I have 50% cash left from rolling the 401k to the rollover IRA waiting for a probable bottom to get back in...(?) Looking for a time to put in for best long term growth - about 15 years.

Any general "get in" times are greatly appreciated!

I have play money also, but that's another story...
 
You're welcome tp

I've posted several trades since early Jan. & most were to sell for the final splash. That either happened last Mon. or it will within a few weeks unless we get a major curve ball. I also posted some possible buy points a few days ago.

I'm almost out of freedom as per posting trades now, per the agreement with my partners.

I'll probably only post once more, other than some final comments in April and that final post outside the final coments will be either a bottom signal if we get it or the confirmation wave.

The confirmation wave to be frank has several points on my map going all the way into late April. So it's hard to say when/where I'll be posting anything directly related to precise trades.

For now all I can suggest is to watch our current price level high, which is 1334 and the low, which is 1265. 50% retracements from any high set in a timid bull are not uncommon. Use weakness to accumulate but don't go full hog until the big signal hits.

The next week or so might clear up many things. We dump into next Thur. it's likely another buy point. We dump over the next 1-3 days it's likely a minor buy point.

I'll repeat something mentioned before both on board & in a few PMs.

Go to my profile and pull all my posts in this thread. Piece them together, take your time going thru them and you'll see how logical this whole theme is.
 
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