GOOG
Investors....come in please!
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GOOG
afterhours.
Beat up one day, with 72 virgins the next. Is this the price I pay for my sins?
If you bought it on 3/19 and sold on 7/17, you would be up over 100 points, ~ 21%.
OMG good move, I wonder what's next?
In the first half of July auto sales dropped 20 % vs last year. GM dropped 40 % ! Considering subprime issues, weakenning US$ that will heat up inflation and threat from derivatives it seems the next 2-3 months will be very tough and disapointing for investors.
Primus, even a broken clock is right twice a day, but you've been spouting this for years.
In case you haven't noticed, the growth in earnings from U.S. companies is largely from overseas earnings.
In case you haven't noticed, the growth in earnings from U.S. companies is largely from overseas earnings.
BTW Primus, the beginning of your post from 2/25/04:
"Pablo,
Nothing changed in my perception: economic situation does not improve, but imbalances become more and more serious. So I remain bearish. Looks like somebody is very interested to keep us for sheep. We are on the eve of Great Depression II and we shall still see DJ at least at 4000 and S&P at 500-600. By the way, for many European investors DJ is already at 6000 because of 35-40 % devaluation of USD."
"Pablo,
Nothing changed in my perception: economic situation does not improve, but imbalances become more and more serious. So I remain bearish. Looks like somebody is very interested to keep us for sheep. We are on the eve of Great Depression II and we shall still see DJ at least at 4000 and S&P at 500-600. By the way, for many European investors DJ is already at 6000 because of 35-40 % devaluation of USD."
That doesn't mean that you're not right this time, my friend.
I just can't figure out why you insist on prognostication. You're making this bear a bull.
I just can't figure out why you insist on prognostication. You're making this bear a bull.
Groucho,
I'm wondering myself why stocks were growing despite all these issues and imbalances. In fact, nothing has changed since my first post. You write that the growth in earnings from U.S. companies is largely from overseas earnings. But this is an optical illusion. Well, I cannot deny that there was a growth, especially from emerging markets, but if to take into consideration US$ devaluation, the rate of this growth will be considerably less promising. Companies are using quite low PO exchange rate. Say, in Europe, Middle East and Africa where last years sales are made mainly in Euro, in 2006 PO rate was 1.20-1.22 and in 2007 it's 1.25-1.27. Thus, today, when the rate is 1.36-1.38, even if a company does not increase sales in natural units, it will report 7-10 % in earnings. However, it may inspire hopes for blinded investors only.
Difficult to find an explanation of growing stocks, whether it's due to real inflation and US$ devaluation, investors' hopes or mania, but it resembles more and more to a contruction of a piramid where a cart is driven by bicycle. And once it stops ...
I'm wondering myself why stocks were growing despite all these issues and imbalances. In fact, nothing has changed since my first post. You write that the growth in earnings from U.S. companies is largely from overseas earnings. But this is an optical illusion. Well, I cannot deny that there was a growth, especially from emerging markets, but if to take into consideration US$ devaluation, the rate of this growth will be considerably less promising. Companies are using quite low PO exchange rate. Say, in Europe, Middle East and Africa where last years sales are made mainly in Euro, in 2006 PO rate was 1.20-1.22 and in 2007 it's 1.25-1.27. Thus, today, when the rate is 1.36-1.38, even if a company does not increase sales in natural units, it will report 7-10 % in earnings. However, it may inspire hopes for blinded investors only.
Difficult to find an explanation of growing stocks, whether it's due to real inflation and US$ devaluation, investors' hopes or mania, but it resembles more and more to a contruction of a piramid where a cart is driven by bicycle. And once it stops ...
Primus,
We have constant bears here too. U.S. dollar devaluation is not a consideration with the U.S.'s newest emerging trading partner, China, who has pegged the yuan.
The E.C. has a different problem, remaining competitive with a fast rising currency making their goods more expensive. The U.S. has full employment thanks to the cheap dollar. If a U.S. citizen isn't traveling to Europe he doesn't see much of a dollar devaluation effect at this time,we can thank the Chinese for that.
If it weren't for oil, the trade imbalance in dollars in the U.S. would not look so dismal. In any case, those holding U.S. dollars abroad are at the greatest risk if they have no wish to purchase U.S. goods eventually. The risk is that the currency further devalues vis a vis their local currency eroding their asset base.
As life itself is the largest ponzi scheme, I understand your concerns. A failure in the largest market in the world is good for no one, except those with gold and other hard currencies.
We have constant bears here too. U.S. dollar devaluation is not a consideration with the U.S.'s newest emerging trading partner, China, who has pegged the yuan.
The E.C. has a different problem, remaining competitive with a fast rising currency making their goods more expensive. The U.S. has full employment thanks to the cheap dollar. If a U.S. citizen isn't traveling to Europe he doesn't see much of a dollar devaluation effect at this time,we can thank the Chinese for that.
If it weren't for oil, the trade imbalance in dollars in the U.S. would not look so dismal. In any case, those holding U.S. dollars abroad are at the greatest risk if they have no wish to purchase U.S. goods eventually. The risk is that the currency further devalues vis a vis their local currency eroding their asset base.
As life itself is the largest ponzi scheme, I understand your concerns. A failure in the largest market in the world is good for no one, except those with gold and other hard currencies.
BTW, about gold. Starting from QI 2007 I finally started to build up my own small fort knox and I'm trying to do it nearly in the way Antal E. Fekete recommends in its July article: http://www.silveraxis.com/monetary/gambling.pdf
"That wager consists in scale-down purchases of physical gold. Buy on every dip of the gold price. Upon bigger dips, buy more. In doing so you may ignore all the indicators with the exception of the basis: the CPI, the dollar index, bond prices, foreign exchange rates, COT reports. You keep buying, and never sell. Your gold is fully paid for. It should be a source of infinite joy to give up worthless (well, make that ultimately worthless) paper against acquiring gold marbles."
One of the most interesting articles I read this year.
"That wager consists in scale-down purchases of physical gold. Buy on every dip of the gold price. Upon bigger dips, buy more. In doing so you may ignore all the indicators with the exception of the basis: the CPI, the dollar index, bond prices, foreign exchange rates, COT reports. You keep buying, and never sell. Your gold is fully paid for. It should be a source of infinite joy to give up worthless (well, make that ultimately worthless) paper against acquiring gold marbles."
One of the most interesting articles I read this year.
JHZR2
Staff member
My father has been reading this sortofthing and has been getting in on it lately too.
Me, I was buying back in 98, when I sensed that gold was going down and the market for it was poor... remember central banks unloading gold? $2xx/oz?
For me, I am a coin collector, so $20 gold pieces have some extrinsic value beyond the metal. I like them... They are fun to visit in the bank, and if needs be, they will help to offset bad economic times (so long as one can find buyers). Still am buying when I can, but having a mortgage cuts into that sort of thing. Ill have to read this article to see their reccomendations of how to buy.
Then again, I also have most of my positions in stocks... and Im not looking to change that, just buy into quality at low prices should the sitation arise. things are never as dire as those salesmen type folks try to make them to be... But I like to be diversified just the same, just in case
JMH
Me, I was buying back in 98, when I sensed that gold was going down and the market for it was poor... remember central banks unloading gold? $2xx/oz?
For me, I am a coin collector, so $20 gold pieces have some extrinsic value beyond the metal. I like them... They are fun to visit in the bank, and if needs be, they will help to offset bad economic times (so long as one can find buyers). Still am buying when I can, but having a mortgage cuts into that sort of thing. Ill have to read this article to see their reccomendations of how to buy.
Then again, I also have most of my positions in stocks... and Im not looking to change that, just buy into quality at low prices should the sitation arise. things are never as dire as those salesmen type folks try to make them to be... But I like to be diversified just the same, just in case
JMH
I'm getting eaten alive.
Quote:
I'm getting eaten alive.
Me to..
Anyone here own short ETFs?
What do ya think? Big down................holy ----.....down 318 as I type.
This credit market tightening up from the mortgage blues I think has some weight in the market. Who knows what the ---- makes oil moves, but it makes the market move.
This credit market tightening up from the mortgage blues I think has some weight in the market. Who knows what the ---- makes oil moves, but it makes the market move.
I bought SDS two days ago along with some more QID.
It hasn't made up for a lot of sideline sitting this year.
It hasn't made up for a lot of sideline sitting this year.
Man these drops are scary.
They usually don't mean much though. Hopefully the short-sellers will start covering tomorrow and life will be good again.....
They usually don't mean much though. Hopefully the short-sellers will start covering tomorrow and life will be good again.....
Did much better today.
Only lost half my butt......
Only lost half my butt......
Last weeks Goldman Sachs and J.P.Morgan sold 175 tons of gold in order to keep gold from rising. 175 tons during a week, this is really a lot ! Their efforts together with a shortage of liquidity due to falling Stocks led to a considerable gold price drop. 25-26/07, when gold reached certain bottom they re-purchased about 110 tons.
Seems the main target of Goldman and Morgan is to disconnect gold from US$ and stocks in order to decrease/compromise the value of gold as a safe heaven for private investors.
Seems the main target of Goldman and Morgan is to disconnect gold from US$ and stocks in order to decrease/compromise the value of gold as a safe heaven for private investors.
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