Couldn't Deposit $1000 for Tesla Model 3 !

[HTSS_TR]

My thinking is some Model 3(heavily optioned) buyers in western states, especially California, may get full $7500 Federal tax credit(assume they have $7500 or higher tax liability) from late 2017 till mid-late 2018.

Buyers in eastern states, specially with base model without option, may not get the car until 2019 or 2020, by that time no more Federal tax credit if Congress don't extend the incentive.

 

[CarbonSteel]

Originally Posted By: Chris142
Originally Posted By: user52165
Originally Posted By: Chris142
Is this kinda like the Tucker 48?
Well, NO. If you knew anything about Tucker and Tesla, you wouldn't ask such a question. Couldn't be more different.
Tucker took orders for cars that were never built.that's what ultimately got him in trouble
Almost, but not quite - here from Wikipedia:

One of Tucker's most innovative business ideas caused trouble for the company. His Accessories Program raised funds by selling accessories before the car was even in production. After the war, demand for new cars was greater than dealers could supply, and most dealers had waiting lists for new cars. Preference was given to returning veterans, which meant that non-veterans were bumped down on the waiting lists indefinitely. Tucker's program allowed potential buyers that purchased Tucker accessories to obtain a guaranteed spot on the Tucker dealer waiting list for a Tucker '48 car.

This concept was investigated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the United States Attorney, and led to an indictment of company executives. Although all charges were eventually dropped, the negative publicity destroyed the company and halted production of the car.

Curiously enough, he actually did produce the minimum number of cars needed to meet the requirements, but he was not allow to sell them due to the investigation and the legal battle which ensued bankrupted the company. A shame really because many of his ideas were eventually adopted by the Big 3 and led to significant improvements in safety. I have no feelings about Tesla either way (other than liking the name of the company because I like Nikola Tesla), but it is nice to see alternate energy cars becoming more affordable, so in that regard, I hope they are successful.

 

[Nate1979]

Bumping this thread. Found a few interesting points from various articles that are worth noting.

About the screen vs no instrument cluster:

http://gas2.org/2016/04/02/why-does-the-model-3-have-no-instrument-panel/

This article a Tesla engineer told the reporter that the dash in the unveiling is almost production ready - probably means that there will be no instrument panel and only the big screen.

Other interesting point from the article is that speculation is the reason there is no instrument panel and only a screen is because this car is really targeted at future self driving car. So why do you need an instrument panel.

Second interesting article:
http://bgr.com/2016/03/31/tesla-model-3-details-unveiling/
http://myinforms.com/en/a/19336578-tesla...ter-efficiency/

Ok, this is an old topic but interesting. There were rumors that Musk was pushing the engineers to get the drag coefficient down to 0.2. The Model S is a 0.24. To get to 0.2 or lower you start to get more crazy designs (like the IAA: http://www.alphr.com/cars/1001536/this-m...rove-efficiency).

So, is the version of the Model 3 at the unveiling actually that close to the production model? I doubt the version they showed is close to a drag coefficient of 0.2. It's far too conventional design. In other articles Musk had commented that the Model 3 won't look anything like previous models. Ok, he missed on that one or else the version they showed at the pep rally is not production ready.

Here is a recent article questioning if Tesla can actually make the cars it has in pre-order. Main point is the cost to build production capacity (will they need another plant?) and the fact that Tesla has a very poor track record so far in ramping and producing a new product without glitches:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/bertelschmit...r/#40c9dd9e4dcb

Quote:
Tesla refuses to learn from its many production problems. The unbelievable number of pre-orders conveniently came just in time to distract from Tesla’s announcement Monday that in all of the first quarter, it managed to make just 2,400 of its ballyhooed Model X, due to – self awareness is the first step towards improving oneself – “Tesla’s hubris in adding far too much new technology to the Model X in version 1, insufficient supplier capability validation, and Tesla not having broad enough internal capability to manufacture the parts in-house.”

 

[HTSS_TR]

Tesla is good at designing vehicles people wants to buy, but they are clearly having problem with manufacturing.

All traditional automakers are good at parts securing and manufacture/assembly but they couldn't design any good EV, except BMW i8.

The missing instrument, Musk tweeted “It will make sense after part 2 of the Model 3 unveil.”, also he tweeted "It will looks like space ship" or something like that.

I think Elon Musk can change anything he likes between now and when the car is in production. No designer/engineer in Tesla has final word.

 

[SeaJay]

They just took in a quarter of a billion dollars in deposits.

Not accusing anyone of anything yet, but there have been a few less than honest organizations in the past who with a large cash windfall would immediately start ramping up production with maybe half of the money, then start declaring the process a big success that will prove to be a winner so that they can justify giving themselves big bonuses with the rest of the cash.

The bonuses are parked offshore, and the company declares bankruptcy a few months later.

 

[Quattro Pete]

Originally Posted By: Nate1979
Here is a recent article questioning if Tesla can actually make the cars it has in pre-order.

It's more of a question of 'when' rather than 'if', IMO. Those people on the pre-order list may be waiting a really long time, and the longer they have to wait, the higher the risk that they'll back out and buy something else instead.

 

[HTSS_TR]

Originally Posted By: SeaJay
They just took in a quarter of a billion dollars in deposits.

Not accusing anyone of anything yet, but there have been a few less than honest organizations in the past who with a large cash windfall would immediately start ramping up production with maybe half of the money, then start declaring the process a big success that will prove to be a winner so that they can justify giving themselves big bonuses with the rest of the cash.

The bonuses are parked offshore, and the company declares bankruptcy a few months later.

Tesla Market Cap is $35 billion(stock price x shares outstanding) as of today.

The amount of deposit for model 3 is $300 million or about 1% of market cap.

Any company would file for bankruptcy to forfeit $35 billion to scam $300 million ?

$300 million is a big amount, but for car companies they are peanut, $300 million is not even half the cost of R&D a new car.

 

[PandaBear]

Originally Posted By: HTSS_TR
Why German waited inline for hours for a lousy EV made in America and wait another 2-3 years for the car, while they can just walk in BMW dealer to buy made in Germany I3 ?


I test drove the i3 to get the $25 gift card from the dealer.

That i3 is horrible if you are not into fashion statement. It is tall and roll around, not a big deal if you are into SUVs but I don't like it. It is fast but the car will not coast if you let off the gas, it will regen instead, so you have to hold your foot to go on a constant speed. The rear doors are suicide door and the seat tucked inward, so if you have a rear facing car seat you cannot get your children in and out.

 

[PandaBear]

Tesla is not really in the EV business but really in the battery business, once the gigafactory is done. It is going to sell batteries to everyone and make money from that instead of making money building cars.

 

[Nate1979]

Originally Posted By: HTSS_TR
Originally Posted By: SeaJay
They just took in a quarter of a billion dollars in deposits.

Not accusing anyone of anything yet, but there have been a few less than honest organizations in the past who with a large cash windfall would immediately start ramping up production with maybe half of the money, then start declaring the process a big success that will prove to be a winner so that they can justify giving themselves big bonuses with the rest of the cash.

The bonuses are parked offshore, and the company declares bankruptcy a few months later.

Tesla Market Cap is $35 billion(stock price x shares outstanding) as of today.

The amount of deposit for model 3 is $300 million or about 1% of market cap.

Any company would file for bankruptcy to forfeit $35 billion to scam $300 million ?

$300 million is a big amount, but for car companies they are peanut, $300 million is not even half the cost of R&D a new car.


I don't think the market cap of Tesla has anything to do with their chance of going bankrupt in the next few years. GM went from a market cap of >$60B to $1B before their bankruptcy.

Tesla going bankrupt would be more related to lack of cash flow from inability to sell cars due to production issues, higher cost, inability to invest in the production capacity, R&D costs, etc.

Likely? I doubt it. But I don't think it's going to be smooth sailing neither and if the Model X is anything of a pattern the Model 3 will face big problems.

 

[surfstar]

Originally Posted By: SeaJay
Not accusing anyone of anything yet, ...


"No offense, but..."

"I'm just saying..."

You are exactly accusing them of being a shady company. Guess you figured out Musk's strategy! Get SpaceX working so that he can pocket cash from Tesla deposits then head to Mars.

 

[HTSS_TR]

My respond was to SeaJay, he claimed that some companies filled bankruptcy because of millions deposit from customers.

$300 millions is not small change, but to a car company it isn't substantial amount.

Tesla can easily raise capital after this 300,000 deposit for model 3 to fund expanding production line.

I think Musk knows the problem(s) with model S and especially model X, he and his team are working hard to avoid similar mistakes.

As many posted before, produce high volume vehicle with consistence quality isn't easy, it seems Japanese know how to do it many years ago, but we and Germany don't know yet. Tesla is still very young, they are still in learning curve of manufacturing.

 

[Nate1979]

By the way, why are you buying a Tesla Model 3?

 

[HTSS_TR]

My wife wants a new car to replace her 16 years old E430.

I think we don't need a larger than compact car, we don't like SUV/CUV and I'm a little tired of gasoline price in California keep going up whenever someone in the oil industry had a sneeze.

Since the $1,000 deposit is refundable, I will wait until there are more details about it, sometime in mid 2017, to decide if I will actual place an order or looking for something else.

If I buy an ICE vehicle today I'll probably go with 2016 Civic coupe with 2.0L non-turbo engine. It's small enough for easy maneuver and roomy enough for 2.

 

[Nate1979]

Originally Posted By: HTSS_TR
My wife wants a new car to replace her 16 years old E430.

I think we don't need a larger than compact car, we don't like SUV/CUV and I'm a little tired of gasoline price in California keep going up whenever someone in the oil industry had a sneeze.

Since the $1,000 deposit is refundable, I will wait until there are more details about it, sometime in mid 2017, to decide if I will actual place an order or looking for something else.

If I buy an ICE vehicle today I'll probably go with 2016 Civic coupe with 2.0L non-turbo engine. It's small enough for easy maneuver and roomy enough for 2.

Why not something like a Chevy Volt?

 

[HTSS_TR]

I don't like plug-in hybrid.

What you have is a two engines vehicle. You still need to plugin once in a while and you still need to do normal maintenance for an ICE. Too much works for little operating saving over Civic, too much more to purchase too.

Comparing performance/handling between Volt and Civic or between Volt and Model 3, I'm pretty sure Volt would come out not a winner.

 

[DoubleWasp]

Originally Posted By: HTSS_TR
Question for those Tesla haters, is there an EV that costs $35,000 or less with these features:

. Not as ugly as BMW I3.
. 215 miles or more per charge and free use of Superchargers that can charge the battery to 80% in 30 minutes or less, so that you can travel from New York to California using Superchargers along the way.
. Accelerate from zero to 60 mph in less than 6 seconds.
. Made in America by American.
. Don't have to deal with Stealers.


. The 1950's "melting in the sun" jellybean/shoe look is beyond passe.
. Why should I care about using supercharger stations that are well out of the way of anywhere I actually live or go? A Tesla is probably the worst vehicle to make a cross-country trip in anyway.
. How's that 215 miles of range doing while accelerating from 0-60 in less than 6 seconds?
. This is actually a good thing, so long as the company is actually good for Americans.
. Don't have to deal with stealers? There has never been a stealership dreamed of that is more totalitarian, abusive, and petty than Tesla Motors. I'd rather deal with the crummiest dealer than something like that.

 

[SteveSRT8]

I'm just wondering why the test I saw of one of these things said it was north of 100k???

 

[HTSS_TR]

Quote:
. The 1950's "melting in the sun" jellybean/shoe look is beyond passe.

Styling is subjective. Until now I think the best exterior styling of all EV and plug-in hybrid is BMW i8, but this car costs more than $100k and battery range is very short at less than 20 miles.

At the minimum this model 3 looks like a standard sedan, with a little unusual front end design because of no grill. At least it doesn't looks anything like BMW i3, or anything like "Look at me, I am special".

Quote:
. Why should I care about using supercharger stations that are well out of the way of anywhere I actually live or go? A Tesla is probably the worst vehicle to make a cross-country trip in anyway.

Not everyone will be able to use supercharger on daily basic, but someone may be able to drive a Tesla EV cross country utilizing supercharger stations. Other pure EV's driving across country is very difficult and very time consuming, if not impossible because there isn't charging station along major highways.

Yes, an ICE vehicle can travel anytime to anywhere with thousands gas stations open 24/7. An EV can't compete with ICE for the convenience as of today and foreseeable future.

A fair comparison is an EV with a FCV(Fuel Cell Vehicle), both are zero tailpipe emission vehicles. Can you fuel up a FCV in Florida or anywhere in US outside California ? We have 9 public hydrogen stations in the whole state of California.

Quote:
. How's that 215 miles of range doing while accelerating from 0-60 in less than 6 seconds?

You don't do maximum accelerate for the whole distance of 200+ miles, you only do it when there is a chance to do so, which is probably no more than 10-20% of all the stops.

The driving distance will shorten with higher speed and usage of other features in the car, such as A/C, stereo ... similar to gas mileage of an ICE vehicle.

How often did you do maximum acceleration of your Porsche on your daily drives ?

Quote:
. This is actually a good thing, so long as the company is actually good for Americans.

So far Tesla is good for USA and American. They exported almost half of their production to oversea. Tesla didn't break down the 300+k model 3 pre-order, how many from US and how many from oversea my guess is no less than 25-30% from oversea. They are expanding their production capacity and hire many more engineer/assembly and other workers to support the order of model 3.

Quote:
. Don't have to deal with stealers? There has never been a stealership dreamed of that is more totalitarian, abusive, and petty than Tesla Motors. I'd rather deal with the crummiest dealer than something like that.

You don't have to deal with third party(dealer), whenever there is a problem you have your car serviced at a Tesla service center, the service writer is Tesla employee and they can contact his/her supervisor at Tesla headquarter quickly to resolve any problem. Most model S customers seem to be happy with services they received from Tesla service centers.

I hear that some owners had their electric motor replaced with a slightest noise. Try that with Nissan Leaf or Chevy Bolt or any other EV maker.


Originally Posted By: SteveSRT8
I'm just wondering why the test I saw of one of these things said it was north of 100k???

Probably model S or X, not model 3.

Tesla didn't have any info about what are the options for model 3. My guess is that it isn't possible to add more than $50-60k options to model 3.

I think I will probably stay close to base price of $35k. When it is time to sign the actual contract to have them build the car, they will have all options' price available and at that time I will know for sure if I like to add any option.

 

[DoubleWasp]

Originally Posted By: HTSS_TR

Styling is subjective. Until now I think the best exterior styling of all EV and plug-in hybrid is BMW i8, but this car costs more than $100k and battery range is very short at less than 20 miles.

At the minimum this model 3 looks like a standard sedan, with a little unusual front end design because of no grill. At least it doesn't looks anything like BMW i3, or anything like "Look at me, I am special".


So you admit that styling is subjective, and therefore the Model 3 is only "better looking" under personal opinion.

Quote:

Not everyone will be able to use supercharger on daily basic, but someone may be able to drive a Tesla EV cross country utilizing supercharger stations. Other pure EV's driving across country is very difficult and very time consuming, if not impossible because there isn't charging station along major highways.

Yes, an ICE vehicle can travel anytime to anywhere with thousands gas stations open 24/7. An EV can't compete with ICE for the convenience as of today and foreseeable future.

A fair comparison is an EV with a FCV(Fuel Cell Vehicle), both are zero tailpipe emission vehicles. Can you fuel up a FCV in Florida or anywhere in US outside California ? We have 9 public hydrogen stations in the whole state of California.


So you admit that to take a Tesla on a Cali/NY trip would be extremely inconvenient compared to almost everything available to a driver besides possibly other electric cars.

Quote:

You don't do maximum accelerate for the whole distance of 200+ miles, you only do it when there is a chance to do so, which is probably no more than 10-20% of all the stops.

The driving distance will shorten with higher speed and usage of other features in the car, such as A/C, stereo ... similar to gas mileage of an ICE vehicle.


An ICE vehicle doesn't have to punch up the nearest supercharger station if it suffers range loss due to acceleration events. It's cool that it can accelerate so quickly, but hardly an attractive feature since there's an exaggerated penalty for hitting the go-pedal too much.

Quote:
How often did you do maximum acceleration of your Porsche on your daily drives ?


Oh, if you only knew.

Quote:

So far Tesla is good for USA and American. They exported almost half of their production to oversea. Tesla didn't break down the 300+k model 3 pre-order, how many from US and how many from oversea my guess is no less than 25-30% from oversea. They are expanding their production capacity and hire many more engineer/assembly and other workers to support the order of model 3.


No disagreement there. But Tesla's active combat against right-to-repair laws, and totalitarian control over everything is not as beneficial.

Quote:
You don't have to deal with third party(dealer), whenever there is a problem you have your car serviced at a Tesla service center, the service writer is Tesla employee and they can contact his/her supervisor at Tesla headquarter quickly to resolve any problem. Most model S customers seem to be happy with services they received from Tesla service centers.

I hear that some owners had their electric motor replaced with a slightest noise. Try that with Nissan Leaf or Chevy Bolt or any other EV maker.


Whenever you have a problem, the only place you can have your car serviced is a Tesla service center, if Elon Musk doesn't have a personal problem with you. This is not going to pan out well when Tesla (allegedly) has hundreds of thousands of daily driven vehicles out on the road.

What information do you have that Leaf or Bolt owners are receiving inferior treatment to Tesla owners? Are there really that many Bolts out there for so long that someone has compiled that info?