Couldn't Deposit $1000 for Tesla Model 3 !

[HTSS_TR]

From Tesla model S owners, these are miles per kWh:

Originally Posted By: jordanrichard

Driver jordanrichard: P85, 6894 miles and have used 2240 kWh (3.1 mile per kWh)

Driver robert: P85, 6236 miles, lifetime energy consumption: 1615 kWh (3.9 mile per kWh)

Driver CQN: 27,500 miles, 295 Wh/mile (3.4 mile per kWh)

Driver jai9001: 11,500 miles. Total 3761 kWh (3.0 mile per kWh)

Driver ramrod: 12,000 miles and averaged 303 kWh/mile (3.3 mile per kWh)

Average is about 3.3-3.5 miles per kWh.

https://forums.teslamotors.com/it_IT/forum/forums/model-s-1-year-kwh-consumption


Model 3 is smaller and much lighter, especially the base model with smaller battery for 215 miles range, the driving distance can be as high as 4 miles per kWh.

For 60 miles daily commute you need 15-20 kWh. With smart meter and local power company has low cost for off peak usage, you can charge your car between 9-10PM to 6-7AM at cost much lower than daytime. A 240V 20A charger can easily add 20-25 kWh to the battery within 6-8 hours.

In some states in US the cost of off-peak can be as low as 5-7 cents, cost to drive 60 miles in model 3 can be as low as $1-2, which is much less than similar gasoline high performance car(0-60MPH in less than 6sec). Plus you drive 100 miles on weekend so the cost of electricity is about $8-12 a week or $400-600 a year. For high cost area such as California we probably would pay $800-1000 a year for similar usage.

I think charging at home during off-peak is much more economical than installing solar and battery, the cost is too high to fully recover within 5-10 years.

The above estimate doesn't take into account possible subsidizes from Federal, state and local agencies.

 

[OVERKILL]

3.3-3.5KWH per mile is definitely less range than I was calculating, which was roughly 15KWH per 65 miles or 4.3KWH per mile.

If we use your numbers, Ian would be using 19KWH a day, which would be ~590KWH a month.

 

[OVERKILL]

Originally Posted By: IndyIan

$3k per year to eliminate my electricity bill and my fuel bill? And you get to tell Hydro1 where to go? Sign me up! That would be significantly less than we pay now.
There is the overall charging efficiency as well, but I suppose if everyone really got smart, you could charge DC to DC from home battery to car battery without much waste, and just configure the home battery for the ideal charging voltage for the car battery.
I suspect the 30 min Tesla super charger isn't totally efficient and charges faster than the most efficient rate.
The great thing about the Tesla's is they have the range for 4 days commute too so a couple cloudy days won't have me cranking up the generator.
So if you've got the space for the solar panels and batteries, I'd think most families that have 2 cars, could have one electric one without any hardship. One of our cars often sits all weekend anyways I find.


I was told today (but cannot verify) that you cannot completely cut yourself off from Hydro? If that's the case, you'd still be saddled with your delivery charge every month even if you used no juice.

Do you heat with wood or gas? If so, it makes a lot more sense. You really need to figure out your hydro needs for this scenario. Take your current usage, tack 600KWH on top of that and that will give you the size of the kit you need.

 

[HTSS_TR]

Originally Posted By: OVERKILL
3.3-3.5KWH per mile is definitely less range than I was calculating, which was roughly 15KWH per 65 miles or 4.3KWH per mile.

If we use your numbers, Ian would be using 19KWH a day, which would be ~590KWH a month.

It is 3.3-3.5 miles per kWh, not the other way around. This is an estimate from some model S owners with about 5-10k miles or longer. I think your estimate of 4.3 miles per kWh for model S is too optimistic.

For someone who accumulates 15k miles a year, he/she would spend about $1500 on gas (30 MPG at $3/gal) compares with model 3 at $375 (4 miles/kWh and 10c/kWh).

PS To calculate the worst case scenario I would use 3 miles per kWh. That means monthly usage is about 700 kWh.

 

[OVERKILL]

Originally Posted By: HTSS_TR
Originally Posted By: OVERKILL
3.3-3.5KWH per mile is definitely less range than I was calculating, which was roughly 15KWH per 65 miles or 4.3KWH per mile.

If we use your numbers, Ian would be using 19KWH a day, which would be ~590KWH a month.

It is 3.3-3.5 miles per kWh, not the other way around. This is an estimate from some model S owners with about 5-10k miles or longer. I think your estimate of 4.3 miles per kWh for model S is too optimistic.

For someone who accumulates 15k miles a year, he/she would spend about $1500 on gas (30 MPG at $3/gal) compares with model 3 at $375 (4 miles/kWh and 10c/kWh).

PS To calculate the worst case scenario I would use 3 miles per kWh. That means monthly usage is about 700 kWh.


Yeah, I was reversing my units there, LOL! Thanks for noticing

My estimate was based exclusively on the official range of 270 miles from Tesla, which of course would be under ideal circumstances. It makes sense that real life is not quite as great.

Hydro here varies in price but 10c/KWH is low. Also, if Ian's usage is 65 miles a day, that's roughly 24,000 miles a year. But gas here is also more expensive so the $1,500 benchmark is low too. He says he's spending around 2K a year on gasoline.

All of this would need to be relative to the size of the solar install he'd be looking at buying. If he's at 2,000KWH a month, that's a lot more juice than I calculated earlier and would require a bigger, more expensive install and a larger, more expensive battery bank.

 

[HTSS_TR]

My estimate of 10c/kWh is based on a person has smart meter, and the power company charges much lower rate for off-peak between 8-9PM and 6-7AM. Also, the current gas price is fairly low, it may not stay low like this forever.

One thing I didn't include in the calculation is the battery may need to be replaced after about 100-150k miles. What will be the cost of 50-60kWh battery at that time ? Do they have rebuilt battery at that time for cheap ?

Since we have some Tesla service centers close by, within 10-20 miles, it is convenience for So Cal residents to own a Tesla car. Someone in other states or in Canada may not have that convenience because a closest Tesla service center can be more than 50-100 miles or farther away.

Very much it depends on individual situation, each one should do calculation carefully, an EV may works for that person in that state doesn't mean it will work for everyone anywhere.

 

[OVERKILL]

Originally Posted By: HTSS_TR
My estimate of 10c/kWh is based on a person has smart meter, and the power company charges much lower rate for off-peak between 8-9PM and 6-7AM.


Yup, we have those, but we also get dinged for a "delivery charge" which I believe varies based on your usage. So even if you use off peak to charge your car, if you use a lot more power, you'd get dinged a lot more for delivery

Our rates are:

Peak: 17.5c/KWH
Mid: 12.8c/KWH
Off: 8.3c/KWH

Last month I used:
Peak: 101.78KWH
Mid: 88.33KWH
Off: 390.89KWH

Total: 612.84KWH

I also replaced all my appliances with new ones (which cost thousands of dollars) recently including an induction range and high efficiency fridge. Prior to these changes I was chewing through ~950KWH a month.

Based on my usage, I paid $31.00 in delivery charges. A HydroONE customer would pay massively more than that.

 

[HTSS_TR]

We have these major appliances use natural gas in our house: water heater, cloth dryer, furnace and stove top. We don't have many large appliances running on electric, only refrigerator and cloth washer(and dryer's drum).

We use on average about 210-240 kWh a month in non-summer months, we may use 400-600 kWh in summer months. Last month we use 224 kWh in 32 days.

We have smart meter, but SCE(Southern California Edison) has several ways to calculate the charge, they told me since I didn't use much off-peak so they didn't calculate the charge with that method(lower rate for off-peak and much higher for peak), they charge us with standard 4-tier rates because we are within tier 1. When I was close to get model 3 I will contact them to learn more about different calculation methods.

The current base rate is 10 cents plus 3.9 cents for delivery charge for a total of 13.9 cents per kWh. Last month bill was $32 and $30 the month before.

I think if we have model 3 and my wife use it on her commute of 35 miles a day plus 50-100 miles on weekend we will save approximately $100-150/month compares with E430(average 18-19 MPG on premium). In my case I don't installing solar and battery will make financial sense.

 

[Nebroch]

Originally Posted By: HTSS_TR
One thing I didn't include in the calculation is the battery may need to be replaced after about 100-150k miles. What will be the cost of 50-60kWh battery at that time ? Do they have rebuilt battery at that time for cheap ?


Experience on Model S battery tells that battery should last longer, if individual cells or modules don't fail. If Tesla wants to be nice to its customers, they will sell refurbished batteries too and offer decent refund for the old one.

 

[IndyIan]

Originally Posted By: OVERKILL
Originally Posted By: HTSS_TR
My estimate of 10c/kWh is based on a person has smart meter, and the power company charges much lower rate for off-peak between 8-9PM and 6-7AM.


Yup, we have those, but we also get dinged for a "delivery charge" which I believe varies based on your usage. So even if you use off peak to charge your car, if you use a lot more power, you'd get dinged a lot more for delivery

Our rates are:

Peak: 17.5c/KWH
Mid: 12.8c/KWH
Off: 8.3c/KWH

Last month I used:
Peak: 101.78KWH
Mid: 88.33KWH
Off: 390.89KWH

Total: 612.84KWH

I also replaced all my appliances with new ones (which cost thousands of dollars) recently including an induction range and high efficiency fridge. Prior to these changes I was chewing through ~950KWH a month.

Based on my usage, I paid $31.00 in delivery charges. A HydroONE customer would pay massively more than that.

I am a hydroONE customer and "delivery" is about 10c/KWH on top of our 9c/KWH as our smart meter isn't accessible from the cell network.
We use between 400-600KWH a month depending on the season, but if one decides to go off-grid, the first thing you do is cut down on the usage.
We seriously considered not hooking up to the grid, but even just 12-14 years ago, the cost was excessive to be able to have a large freezer.
Probably we could get down to under 10kwh per day if we tried, and got a gas dryer.
So 300kwh for the house and another 300kwh for the car wouldn't be a huge system, although a plugin hybrid may make the most sense incase of a particularly cloudy week.
Someday I should sit down and figure it out I guess. I think in the next few years all the big automakers will make a real effort to compete with Tesla and electric cars will become much more affordable and practical.

 

[HTSS_TR]

Originally Posted By: IndyIan
We seriously considered not hooking up to the grid, but even just 12-14 years ago, the cost was excessive to be able to have a large freezer.
Probably we could get down to under 10kwh per day if we tried, and got a gas dryer.
So 300kwh for the house and another 300kwh for the car wouldn't be a huge system, although a plugin hybrid may make the most sense incase of a particularly cloudy week.
Someday I should sit down and figure it out I guess. I think in the next few years all the big automakers will make a real effort to compete with Tesla and electric cars will become much more affordable and practical.

Our usage was more than 10 kWh a day some years ago, I cut down to 7-8 kWh a day for about 5-6 years now. I only turn on A/C when indoor temperature was above 80F, otherwise only few fans were on. We have some natural gas appliances, and the cost to run those appliances was very minimum too, about $15-18 a month.

I think by 2025 we will have many ZEV's(Zero Emission Vehicle) from every manufacture with a minimum range of 200 miles and cost less than $25-30k without government incentive(s).

 

[Nebroch]

I'd like to see EVs with lower consumption. Current small EVs like Leaf, Ford Focus Electric and VW Golf Electric take 15-17 kWh/100 km.

With improved aerodynamics, cabin heat control (double glazing, heat pumps/reversed AC, other insulation..), inverters and motors consumption could decrease significantly, and 200 mile range would be achieved with a smaller and cheaper battery.

 

[whip]

Ford says they have no interest in 200 mile EVs.

http://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/no-200-mile-ford-ev-news-details-quote/

But pays $200,000 for a Model X.

http://fortune.com/2016/04/20/ford-tesla-model-x/

My weekly commute is about 50 miles. I drive another 50-100 miles on the weekend depending on activities. As soon as a 150-200 mile EV is available for about $25,000, I'm buying.