Preparing for the double dip recession.
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Originally Posted By: CivicFan
I hope I am wrong but my logic tells me that austerity in a shaky economic situation is going to make things worse...
How are you guys planning to prepare the looming double dip recession? I have not yet mapped out a plan so I'm looking for creative ideas.
Austerity? Nope the Government is borrowing hundreds of billions to keep on spending. The markets are falling because the bill that passed congress did not adequately address their spending addiction.
I hope I am wrong but my logic tells me that austerity in a shaky economic situation is going to make things worse...
How are you guys planning to prepare the looming double dip recession? I have not yet mapped out a plan so I'm looking for creative ideas.
Austerity? Nope the Government is borrowing hundreds of billions to keep on spending. The markets are falling because the bill that passed congress did not adequately address their spending addiction.
Originally Posted By: Drew99GT
I agree 100%. Jobs, jobs, and JOBS. The last decade was built on nothing but real estate equity. That is gone now. I know most people think education and college is the key for EVERY young person to pursue, but the simple fact is, it's not. Decades ago, most young people who did not want higher education could get jobs in manufacturing or other more asset based businesses that provided a real living wage and a chance at the American Dream. Today, many college graduates can't even find a decent job that provides a living wage because they're overseas. The modern day equivalent of a "middle class" domestic manufacturing job 40 years ago is working at Walmart or the Verizon store. IT jobs that paid well a decade ago are becoming mediocre. Landscaping. construction, or agriculture? FORGET ABOUT IT. Illegals working for peanuts do those jobs and they're used to a much lower standard of living. Service based retail jobs are what's available to the average Joe for the most part. Credit is maxed out and people no longer have the ability to buy the latest Chinese trinket or triple latte 3 times a day from Starbucks. When upwards of 15% of people can't get good jobs and can no longer easily use credit to purchase things, the economy is going to shrink.
This is a structural design of the global economy that IMO has been designed this way. It's called globalism, and it sure was pounded into my head in college a decade ago that it's going to be GREAT for everyone.
Agree, we as a nation already have enough education on the higher end and there is not enough demand for too much of that (yes I do have enough education for what I need to do and what the industry is paying people to do).
We've enjoyed a great ride since WWII and now the rest of the destroyed world in WWII is finally recovered, and they are going to enjoy life just like we do, with the resource that we used to get around the world for peanuts, and they'll be satisfied with just a fraction of what we enjoyed since then. The only way to stabilize the difference is to either keep steady increase in resources (energy, minerals, agricultural products, forestry, etc) while letting the developing nations catch up and the developed nations tough it out. Scenario like you'll end up living with within your mean but the mean cost what you used to pay for a comfortable lifestyle.
Technology will improve efficiency and productivity but they will be eaten up just to keep the developed world surviving, things like what we have that's called jobless recovery and a lot of the future productivity improvement will be in taking care of aging population, or freeing up productivity elsewhere to compensate for an aging population. 55mpg car is very achievable, because by the time they arrive you'll still be paying the same amount of money per mile for fuel because fuel cost increase will eat that up. No government involvement is necessary, the consumer will do it for themselves (see how the 10 year old econo boxes went up in valve).
I agree 100%. Jobs, jobs, and JOBS. The last decade was built on nothing but real estate equity. That is gone now. I know most people think education and college is the key for EVERY young person to pursue, but the simple fact is, it's not. Decades ago, most young people who did not want higher education could get jobs in manufacturing or other more asset based businesses that provided a real living wage and a chance at the American Dream. Today, many college graduates can't even find a decent job that provides a living wage because they're overseas. The modern day equivalent of a "middle class" domestic manufacturing job 40 years ago is working at Walmart or the Verizon store. IT jobs that paid well a decade ago are becoming mediocre. Landscaping. construction, or agriculture? FORGET ABOUT IT. Illegals working for peanuts do those jobs and they're used to a much lower standard of living. Service based retail jobs are what's available to the average Joe for the most part. Credit is maxed out and people no longer have the ability to buy the latest Chinese trinket or triple latte 3 times a day from Starbucks. When upwards of 15% of people can't get good jobs and can no longer easily use credit to purchase things, the economy is going to shrink.
This is a structural design of the global economy that IMO has been designed this way. It's called globalism, and it sure was pounded into my head in college a decade ago that it's going to be GREAT for everyone.
Agree, we as a nation already have enough education on the higher end and there is not enough demand for too much of that (yes I do have enough education for what I need to do and what the industry is paying people to do).
We've enjoyed a great ride since WWII and now the rest of the destroyed world in WWII is finally recovered, and they are going to enjoy life just like we do, with the resource that we used to get around the world for peanuts, and they'll be satisfied with just a fraction of what we enjoyed since then. The only way to stabilize the difference is to either keep steady increase in resources (energy, minerals, agricultural products, forestry, etc) while letting the developing nations catch up and the developed nations tough it out. Scenario like you'll end up living with within your mean but the mean cost what you used to pay for a comfortable lifestyle.
Technology will improve efficiency and productivity but they will be eaten up just to keep the developed world surviving, things like what we have that's called jobless recovery and a lot of the future productivity improvement will be in taking care of aging population, or freeing up productivity elsewhere to compensate for an aging population. 55mpg car is very achievable, because by the time they arrive you'll still be paying the same amount of money per mile for fuel because fuel cost increase will eat that up. No government involvement is necessary, the consumer will do it for themselves (see how the 10 year old econo boxes went up in valve).
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Originally Posted By: rshaw125
The markets are falling because the bill that passed congress did not adequately address their spending addiction.
Not only that but with the [censored] of spendinf[debt] (which is in effect a stimulus)..is showing that this country has no future except more debt to keep people working at jobs that do not grow the economy.
The markets are falling because the bill that passed congress did not adequately address their spending addiction.
Not only that but with the [censored] of spendinf[debt] (which is in effect a stimulus)..is showing that this country has no future except more debt to keep people working at jobs that do not grow the economy.
Originally Posted By: rshaw125
Originally Posted By: CivicFan
I hope I am wrong but my logic tells me that austerity in a shaky economic situation is going to make things worse...
How are you guys planning to prepare the looming double dip recession? I have not yet mapped out a plan so I'm looking for creative ideas.
Austerity? Nope the Government is borrowing hundreds of billions to keep on spending. The markets are falling because the bill that passed congress did not adequately address their spending addiction.
+1
Originally Posted By: CivicFan
I hope I am wrong but my logic tells me that austerity in a shaky economic situation is going to make things worse...
How are you guys planning to prepare the looming double dip recession? I have not yet mapped out a plan so I'm looking for creative ideas.
Austerity? Nope the Government is borrowing hundreds of billions to keep on spending. The markets are falling because the bill that passed congress did not adequately address their spending addiction.
+1
I probably won't do anything.
I sold an office building last year, bought another closer to my primary home and did a ground up renovation on it, so I created a few jobs for awhile and put some money in circulation, but I doubt I'll do anything else.
I have some other properties that are not making any income, need to have their structures demolished or renovated, but I doubt I will do it soon. Maybe some work on one this Fall or next Spring, but not much. I just can't see any reason to spend a bunch of money getting a property ready for a new business, when the prospects of somebody starting up a business are so bleak, as they presently are.
As a (very) small business owner, there are two things that are a certainty about the current administration: 1) they will relentlessly attempt to take business and personal capital and redistribute it to buy votes, or otherwise pee it away on bigger government; and 2) they will just as relentlessly attempt to impose greater regulation, and greater regulatory cost on business.
So why would any sane person do anything that you don't have to do in this business climate, which would only reward bad behavior by our leaders? To the maximum extent I can, I intend to just wait this adminsitration out. I'll do my part to make the economy better on somebody else's watch - he or she will need it to deal with the pile of debt they will inherit from this administration. I'm sure I'm not the only person who feels this way.
The job market will improve when the guys at the top are unemployed. Mass resignations in D.C., starting with the guy at the top, would improve the economy within days.
I sold an office building last year, bought another closer to my primary home and did a ground up renovation on it, so I created a few jobs for awhile and put some money in circulation, but I doubt I'll do anything else.
I have some other properties that are not making any income, need to have their structures demolished or renovated, but I doubt I will do it soon. Maybe some work on one this Fall or next Spring, but not much. I just can't see any reason to spend a bunch of money getting a property ready for a new business, when the prospects of somebody starting up a business are so bleak, as they presently are.
As a (very) small business owner, there are two things that are a certainty about the current administration: 1) they will relentlessly attempt to take business and personal capital and redistribute it to buy votes, or otherwise pee it away on bigger government; and 2) they will just as relentlessly attempt to impose greater regulation, and greater regulatory cost on business.
So why would any sane person do anything that you don't have to do in this business climate, which would only reward bad behavior by our leaders? To the maximum extent I can, I intend to just wait this adminsitration out. I'll do my part to make the economy better on somebody else's watch - he or she will need it to deal with the pile of debt they will inherit from this administration. I'm sure I'm not the only person who feels this way.
The job market will improve when the guys at the top are unemployed. Mass resignations in D.C., starting with the guy at the top, would improve the economy within days.
I'll try to post more. That always helps. I think if Pablo posts more, it will help even more.
Originally Posted By: CivicFan
I hope I am wrong but my logic tells me that austerity in a shaky economic situation is going to make things worse...
Then we should be just fine.
Austerity??
I'll do what I always do. Bottom fish!! Not a bottom quite yet, but I'll buy just a little today.
I hope I am wrong but my logic tells me that austerity in a shaky economic situation is going to make things worse...
Then we should be just fine.
Austerity??
I'll do what I always do. Bottom fish!! Not a bottom quite yet, but I'll buy just a little today.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/08/fiscal-policy
Stimulus wasn't large enough from the start. Too much money went to banks. I'm tired of the pandering to the top 1%. Im tired of hearing they are the job creators. Demand drives job growth. You can argue about the fairness of taxing them more but you won't get any sympathy from me, sorry. Tax unearned income as income . We need strong tax relief for middle class workers. We also need more spending . It wasn't until WWII that we got out if it. We don't need a war but we need something as substantial.
Stimulus wasn't large enough from the start. Too much money went to banks. I'm tired of the pandering to the top 1%. Im tired of hearing they are the job creators. Demand drives job growth. You can argue about the fairness of taxing them more but you won't get any sympathy from me, sorry. Tax unearned income as income . We need strong tax relief for middle class workers. We also need more spending . It wasn't until WWII that we got out if it. We don't need a war but we need something as substantial.
Originally Posted By: addyguy
I know there are other factors at play, but I'm suprised the markets didn't bounce back once Congress came to a debt deal - I thought once that uncertainty was taken out, markets would have rebounded sharply to where they were.
I agree that austerity at a weak economic time is not a recipe for sucess, but if one faces the truth, the US (and many others) HAVE to cut spending at some point. Now or later, it doesn't really matter - it has to happen.
Even Bill Gross and others have been saying we have a jobs problem not an debt problem. But until we realize that we are not the next Greece, and more like Japan, growth will be weak. My. 02
I know there are other factors at play, but I'm suprised the markets didn't bounce back once Congress came to a debt deal - I thought once that uncertainty was taken out, markets would have rebounded sharply to where they were.
I agree that austerity at a weak economic time is not a recipe for sucess, but if one faces the truth, the US (and many others) HAVE to cut spending at some point. Now or later, it doesn't really matter - it has to happen.
Even Bill Gross and others have been saying we have a jobs problem not an debt problem. But until we realize that we are not the next Greece, and more like Japan, growth will be weak. My. 02
Originally Posted By: addyguy
I know there are other factors at play, but I'm suprised the markets didn't bounce back once Congress came to a debt deal - I thought once that uncertainty was taken out, markets would have rebounded sharply to where they were.
I agree that austerity at a weak economic time is not a recipe for sucess, but if one faces the truth, the US (and many others) HAVE to cut spending at some point. Now or later, it doesn't really matter - it has to happen.
from another site:
The market’s known for weeks that the deal wasn’t going to touch entitlements or lock in major spending cuts. Once Obama demanded an extra $400 billion in new revenue and Boehner walked away, the grand bargain was dead. If, as Erin Burnett speculated, shares were pricing in an elevated risk of a credit downgrade, that should have happened Monday or last week. I think J Pod’s right that what we’re seeing here is markets pricing in something else — namely, the growing risk of a double dip:
In fact, the debt deal came to fruition at exactly the same time as a series of devastating economic reports that indicate we will be lucky if the current moment is only a “slowdown” and not the beginning of—maybe even the middle of—a double-dip recession. You don’t need an economics degree to see the disaster in these numbers. Lower consumer confidence means less consumer spending, which means less demand, which means less economic activity, which means no improvement in employment figures and very possibly a worsening of unemployment. What we are seeing on Wall Street this week is that a coming recession is being “priced in.”
Investors can’t make a move because they’re paralyzed with uncertainty over government policy, and since the Super Committee may or may not produce tax reform four months from now, that’s bound to continue until Thanksgiving at least. That’s a more trenchant criticism of the debt deal vis-a-vis the stock sell-off, I think, than knocking it because it took only a few pebbles off of America’s mountain of debt. It did nothing much to encourage job creation and it prolonged regulatory uncertainty, and now the market’s reacting accordingly. Bad days ahead — starting tomorrow, when the July unemployment numbers come out.
I know there are other factors at play, but I'm suprised the markets didn't bounce back once Congress came to a debt deal - I thought once that uncertainty was taken out, markets would have rebounded sharply to where they were.
I agree that austerity at a weak economic time is not a recipe for sucess, but if one faces the truth, the US (and many others) HAVE to cut spending at some point. Now or later, it doesn't really matter - it has to happen.
from another site:
The market’s known for weeks that the deal wasn’t going to touch entitlements or lock in major spending cuts. Once Obama demanded an extra $400 billion in new revenue and Boehner walked away, the grand bargain was dead. If, as Erin Burnett speculated, shares were pricing in an elevated risk of a credit downgrade, that should have happened Monday or last week. I think J Pod’s right that what we’re seeing here is markets pricing in something else — namely, the growing risk of a double dip:
In fact, the debt deal came to fruition at exactly the same time as a series of devastating economic reports that indicate we will be lucky if the current moment is only a “slowdown” and not the beginning of—maybe even the middle of—a double-dip recession. You don’t need an economics degree to see the disaster in these numbers. Lower consumer confidence means less consumer spending, which means less demand, which means less economic activity, which means no improvement in employment figures and very possibly a worsening of unemployment. What we are seeing on Wall Street this week is that a coming recession is being “priced in.”
Investors can’t make a move because they’re paralyzed with uncertainty over government policy, and since the Super Committee may or may not produce tax reform four months from now, that’s bound to continue until Thanksgiving at least. That’s a more trenchant criticism of the debt deal vis-a-vis the stock sell-off, I think, than knocking it because it took only a few pebbles off of America’s mountain of debt. It did nothing much to encourage job creation and it prolonged regulatory uncertainty, and now the market’s reacting accordingly. Bad days ahead — starting tomorrow, when the July unemployment numbers come out.
Originally Posted By: buster
Stimulus wasn't large enough from the start.
Buster..just where did the 7 trillion of borrowing and overspending go the last few years?? Guess what..in went into the economy as an unaffordable stimulus. I can't see why you can't see that..and why you want to provide more debt (stimulus)...with all due respect.
Stimulus wasn't large enough from the start.
Buster..just where did the 7 trillion of borrowing and overspending go the last few years?? Guess what..in went into the economy as an unaffordable stimulus. I can't see why you can't see that..and why you want to provide more debt (stimulus)...with all due respect.
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Originally Posted By: buster
It's funny how many small business owners don't understand macro economics.
They understand macro economics, but like large businesses their priority is not the greater good of the nation or the world but their own bottom line. So the voting / donating / opinions are inline toward what works for that purposes.
This is what we called capitalism at work, it produce localized optimal result (i.e. business friendly environment) but it isn't never going to guarantee the optimal overall result. In computer algorithm we call this the "greedy" algorithm.
Now before you bash me for anti business, individuals of a society is also the same. Unless everything is owned by one individual or his / her family, you'll not be able to take the optimal overall result in a democracy.
Having non profiting policy makers from academic may achieve a non profit biased result, but they too can be corrupted if the party of profit bribe them. (see how the US rating got artificially floated at AAA when every investor already assume it is downgraded and price it as so).
It's funny how many small business owners don't understand macro economics.
They understand macro economics, but like large businesses their priority is not the greater good of the nation or the world but their own bottom line. So the voting / donating / opinions are inline toward what works for that purposes.
This is what we called capitalism at work, it produce localized optimal result (i.e. business friendly environment) but it isn't never going to guarantee the optimal overall result. In computer algorithm we call this the "greedy" algorithm.
Now before you bash me for anti business, individuals of a society is also the same. Unless everything is owned by one individual or his / her family, you'll not be able to take the optimal overall result in a democracy.
Having non profiting policy makers from academic may achieve a non profit biased result, but they too can be corrupted if the party of profit bribe them. (see how the US rating got artificially floated at AAA when every investor already assume it is downgraded and price it as so).
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Originally Posted By: Al
Originally Posted By: buster
Stimulus wasn't large enough from the start.
Buster..just where did the 7 trillion of borrowing and overspending go the last few years?? Guess what..in went into the economy as an unaffordable stimulus. I can't see why you can't see that..and why you want to provide more debt (stimulus)...with all due respect.
+1
Huge amounts of that cash went into state coffers, who in turn used it to kick their own can down the road. Propping up short term deficits in local governments/school districts and paying state union employees like teachers, police, fireman and on and on. Remember a job saved is as good as one that gets created...lol
Originally Posted By: buster
Stimulus wasn't large enough from the start.
Buster..just where did the 7 trillion of borrowing and overspending go the last few years?? Guess what..in went into the economy as an unaffordable stimulus. I can't see why you can't see that..and why you want to provide more debt (stimulus)...with all due respect.
+1
Huge amounts of that cash went into state coffers, who in turn used it to kick their own can down the road. Propping up short term deficits in local governments/school districts and paying state union employees like teachers, police, fireman and on and on. Remember a job saved is as good as one that gets created...lol
As long as you live within your means and don't take on so much debt you will be OK in this [censored] economy.
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