InsideEVs : Tesla Delivers Record-Setting 343,830 Cars In Q3 2022.

Also seeing the development of tow behind diesel powered fast chargers... should help when the line at the supercharger is several hours long and a small storm, like Ian/Katrina/Michael...., knocks out power for a few weeks. We'll see who develops the 1st super/hyper/ultra tow behind gas/diesel powered charger for "roadside service". I bet AAA will buy a ton of 'em.

 
By the way the Tesla battery warranty for the Model 3 is 8 years or 100,000 miles, whichever is less. Many will be miled out soon with no warranty.

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Except for $20,000 batteries. We shall see.
Are you assuming the batteries die soon after warranty period expires? Your post #5 regarding Tesla battery warranty is incomplete; it did not include "with minimum 70% retention of Battery capacity over the warranty period."

What is the Tesla battery life track record?
My understanding is, it is very good. Here's some data for your review, if you choose to do so.

According to user supplied data,
"In the real world, Tesla claims the battery in one of the premium Tesla Model S or Model X cars will retain an average of 90 percent of its capacity after 200,000 miles.
Third-party data shows a similar story. An April 2020 study from NimbleFins, using user-submitted data from Model S cars made between 2013 and 2019, found these cars lose around one percent battery range per year."

Tesla battery tech continues to improve, but as you say, time will tell. Tesla is a young company. But the results, so far, have been stellar. The battery will likely outlast the car. If you have any real world data that shows otherwise, I would love to review it, as I am likely to buy another Tesla.
 
A
"In the real world, Tesla claims the battery in one of the premium Tesla Model S or Model X cars will retain an average of 90 percent of its capacity after 200,000 miles.
...user-submitted data from Model S cars made between 2013 and 2019, found these cars lose around one percent battery range per year."

Tesla battery tech continues to improve,
Tesla vehicles have the best batteries. The quality is well known, and the individual cells removed from damaged cars are in high demand for other applications. This alone speaks volumes.

However, all lithium batteries grow dendrites over time. They start to cause at least minor problems at about the 8 year mark. The push for ever greater energy density means thinner internal components and age related failures.

Tesla's various cells cycle very well, and retain energy very well. They also handle abuse well. However, the early ones are failing, right on schedule. Owners notice mild range loss, with a few noticing ever increasing range loss. But what tends to happen is that a (single) or a few (a sufficient number of) cells fail outright and the battery suddenly bricks.
 
Tesla vehicles have the best batteries. The quality is well known, and the individual cells removed from damaged cars are in high demand for other applications. This alone speaks volumes.

However, all lithium batteries grow dendrites over time. They start to cause at least minor problems at about the 8 year mark. The push for ever greater energy density means thinner internal components and age related failures.

Tesla's various cells cycle very well, and retain energy very well. They also handle abuse well. However, the early ones are failing, right on schedule. Owners notice mild range loss, with a few noticing ever increasing range loss. But what tends to happen is that a (single) or a few (a sufficient number of) cells fail outright and the battery suddenly bricks.
@Cujet I don't doubt your expertise, but I would like to see some data. My understanding is that the batteries that fall below 80% capacity have close to 200K, or even many more miles. And those would have to be the earlier cars.
From a statistical standpoint, there are 2 issues regarding the data we have:
  1. Too small data set.
  2. Technology change. To what degree are the early batteries comparable to the newer batteries?
I bet you can speak to #2...
Then you have to delve deeper and inspect driving and charging, geographical and climate affects. Then we can draw meaningful conclusions.

I would like to know how many cars have bricked and what percentage this represents.
 
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