Average age for a car on the road equals average age for an EV battery to fail

[JeffKeryk]

Yes, a number of tech oriented articles seemingly with high credibility.

But more important: With decades of life experiences, seeing thru corporate over-promises, living thru numerous financial collapses and tech bubbles bursting (almost universally the common theme is deception and fraud), and using a myriad of batteries in my lifetime that rarely life up to the projections, I believe my life experiences over some tech company illusory promises.

Simple hand tool lithium batteries are a great example. I have a Dewalt drill from probably 10-20 years ago. Both battery packs are shot. One is completely dead and the other very weak. Dewalt redesigned the battery fitment, to frustrate consumers. It's cost prohibitive to try to source a new "old design" battery, so I have a drill that is near useless and less expensive to replace, than get a new battery for. Meanwhile, I have my original corded Sears drill from 1992 that works perfectly, and a collection of garage sale corded drills that are 30-40-50 years old that work just as good as new.

Cellular phones and laptops are another example. These batteries never meet expectations, batteries get redesigned so they no longer fit, and the product then becomes disposable. That is the purposeful designed obsolescence of these EVs that people are foolishly demanding and transitioning to. Around year 10 - 15 these become too expensive to repair so they are disposed of in favor of new and better...

In other words:

Please cite those articles.

 

[leadcounsel]

My Corolla Hybrid battery has a 10 year, 150K mile warranty.

At year 12 or so when the battery dies and the estimate is $15,000 for a new battery, what will you chose to do?

 

[The Critic]

At year 12 or so when the battery dies and the estimate is $15,000 for a new battery, what will you chose to do?

Please.....Toyota does a much better job with HV Batteries than most brands.

I found a used Corolla Hybrid for sale and used its VIN to lookup the HV Battery:

 

[leadcounsel]

I imagine it will get cheaper. Also odds are batteries will be getting cheaper per kwh as well.

When have batteries gotten easier or cheaper? It's never been my experience. They tend to be redesigned and instead of more efficient, they are just expected to power more stuff consumers don't need.

Car batteries, in my experience, have gotten less reliable over time, not better. Same with phones, computers, etc. There are some notable exceptions, such as I love my rechargeable flashlights vs. AAA batteries, very powerful and convenient lights, but that's a small device and LED vs. candlescent.

Please cite those articles.

They have been posted and discussed ad nasuem, and it's all out there if are receptive to views that counter your views and you care to get the information.

 

[brianl703]

I found a used Corolla Hybrid for sale and used its VIN to lookup the HV Battery:

Hybrids don't use very large batteries compared to full electric or plug-in hybrids, and so those batteries should be commensurately cheaper. EDIT: A quick Google search says that Corolla Hybrid battery you looked up is a whopping 1.3kWh in size. About a dollar per Wh is what that battery costs after the core charge...

 

[leadcounsel]

a used Corolla Hybrid for sale and used its VIN to lookup the HV Battery:

Used hybrid battery. I said new.

 

[simple_gifts]

Used hybrid battery. I said new.

Still after 20 years, the FUD continues; I got a new G2 Toyota battery for $1950; $2400 installed; the original lasted 17 years

2004 Prius RTOD; battery failure

Thought I would just add this record of my 2004 Prius item in case someone searched the forum. Purchased this vehicle from my parents in 2016 when they downsized their life; had 65K miles on it, always garaged kept, not really driven in snow . Repaired the coolant valve for the thermos bottle...

bobistheoilguy.com

 

[The Critic]

Used hybrid battery. I said new.

Huh? That quote is for a new HV Battery.

I took the VIN from a used vehicle (for sale) to lookup the battery.

 

[brages]

Eh, I guess we'll see, once the market is there for replacing battery packs, I imagine it will get cheaper. Also odds are batteries will be getting cheaper per kwh as well.
Its probably a good reason to buy a Tesla Model Y or 3, if you keep cars for a long time, as the Y is soon going to be the most popular vehicle sold world wide. So even if Tesla wants to gouge you for battery replacements 10 years from now, with millions sold, someone will fill the gap for reasonable priced battery replacements. For 2023 Tesla is projected to sell about 2M in total Model Y's and 3's.
Pretty soon, you might have better luck with servicing an electric car in the future, compared to a relatively rare gas car.

In theory, electric vehicles should be easier to keep on the road in the future, if we get some decent right to repair legislation passed.

I think you could be right -- Teslas are so popular and valuable that even supposing a 10-12 year battery lifespan, there will be a big incentive to produce good battery replacements for them in the future.

With Priuses, we see how there are a lot of people who understand the batteries and how to disassemble and troubleshoot them. There are even new battery packs for old Priuses that use lithium-ion batteries (original were NiMH), and they supposed to work great. Of course, a Prius battery is a lot smaller than a Tesla battery...

 

[Passport1]

Have two vehicles at 17 years, one at 32 years. All three run fine. Probably last longer than me w/o anything expensive. The rest is a mute point as in a decade or two almost everybody is going to be herded into gigantic megalopolises where public transportation is mandatory.

Acquaint yourselves with 'Agenda 21'.

 

[leadcounsel]

You're cherry picking hybrids when the discussion is on EVs.

Here's a used Tesla 3 battery, Ebay. $10,000. Seems like the going rate.

2022 Tesla model 3 Long Range Battery 75-82 kWh 1104422-02-W Very Low Mileage | eBay

Find many great new & used options and get the best deals for 2022 Tesla model 3 Long Range Battery 75-82 kWh 1104422-02-W Very Low Mileage at the best online prices at eBay! Free shipping for many products!

www.ebay.com

Tesla Model 3 Battery Replacement Cost (Solved & Answered) |

So, you just bought your brand new Tesla Model 3, but now you're starting to worry and wonder whether the price of battery replacement will…

electriccarpledge.com

"Tesla Model 3 Battery Replacement Cost
In short, the average cost to replace a Tesla Model 3 battery is $15000 including labor, Battery price ranges from $13500-14500 and for labor you can expect to pay anywhere between $1500-$3000

The Model 3 battery is a very complicated component that requires many tools to remove, which means it should be done by a professional.

The cost of replacing a battery on the Tesla Model 3 will vary depending on which company you go with. The prices will range from $13,500 to $14,500 per battery.

The labor costs for replacing the battery on the Tesla Model 3 vary widely as well. They can range anywhere from $1,500 to $3,000 depending on the company you choose and what kind of service they offer."

 

[JeffKeryk]

They have been posted and discussed ad nasuem, and it's all out there if are receptive to views that counter your views and you care to get the information.

Pretty weak... Let me see if I can help you out.
By the way, just so you know, I don't ask these kind of questions if I don't already know the answer.

The simple answer is that we don’t know because electric cars have not been around long enough for us to tell. The best we can do is observe the apparent degradation in those cars on the road.
Even that observation can prove a challenge, though, since most EVs have been on the road well under six years, with almost 30% sold last year in 2022.

Beyond that, very few EV batteries have been replaced, with the exception of cars like the Bolt.

 

[leadcounsel]

Yup, and as they age NEAR TERM (starting around year 10) we're going to see landfills of EVs too expensive to repair.

200,000 miles for the typical American profile is ~8 years of driving at 12,000 mpy.
1500 charging cycles, 300-500k miles, again around 10-15 years.
Time for battery replacement. $10,000 today. On a vehicle that has depreciated to about the same value. The economic analysis will LIKELY based on modern trends to dispose of the car and get a new one.

Can we agree that MOTORTREND research and analysis, including directly quoting Musk, is sufficient or are they also wrong, like with the nonsense that a Camaro isn't an America muscle car and all these magazines are wrong too on EVs?

How Long Does a Tesla Battery Last?

A look at what Tesla says and what’s happening in the real world provides some answers to a tricky question.

www.motortrend.com

"...Tesla designs its products and its warranties so that the company doesn't burn through cash replacing parts at its own expense. ... Before 2020, Tesla provided an eight-year, unlimited-mileage warranty on Model S and Model X batteries and drive units. That guarantee has since been revised to eight years or 150,000 miles for those vehicles. Tesla's less expensive models have shorter mileage limits. The Model 3 RWD is covered for 8 years or 100,000 miles, while Performance, Long Range AWD, and Standard Range AWD versions of the Model 3 and Model Y are guaranteed for 8 years or 120,000 miles. "According to Tesla's 2021 impact report, its batteries are designed to last the life of the vehicle, which the company estimates as roughly 200,000 miles in the U.S. and 150,000 miles in Europe. Tesla's own data show Model S and X batteries retain about 90 percent of their original capacity on average over 200,000 miles of use. Tesla CEO Elon Musk also once tweeted that the battery pack in the Model 3 and Model Y was designed to last 1,500 charging cycles, which translates to about 300,000 miles for Standard Range models and about 500,000 miles for Long Range versions."

 

[leadcounsel]

Huh? That quote is for a new HV Battery.

I took the VIN from a used vehicle (for sale) to lookup the battery.

Oh, okay. Only $2500 for a new Hybrid a battery around year 10. So, just the cost of installing a new ICE engine every decade. Face-palm.

We're also talking mainly of EVs, which around every decade need a new $15,000 battery.

 

[ProbeGT]

Eh, I guess we'll see, once the market is there for replacing battery packs, I imagine it will get cheaper.
... someone will fill the gap for reasonable priced battery replacements.

Haha, what replacements? You're obviously not up to date on current news. Tesla has recently updated their new battery packs to be "structural." As if the old packs weren't tough and expensive enough to replace, they just made it practically impossible.

They pour structural glue all over the cells in battery packs now. Super nasty, requires a ridiculous process to dissolve/remove and then you've compromised the car structure.

When a few $8 cells fail, junk or part-out are the only options.

 

[The Critic]

Oh, okay. Only $2500 for a new Hybrid a battery around year 10. So, just the cost of installing a new ICE engine every decade. Face-palm.

We're also talking mainly of EVs, which around every decade need a new $15,000 battery.

I was answering your comment to @skyactiv , who was discussing his Corolla Hybrid.

Also, I've yet to see an ICE engine installed for $2500. Not even a used one. You're looking at minimum $5K for a USED ICE engine installed, $10K+ for reman.

 

[pghvolvo]

My Corolla Hybrid battery has a 10 year, 150K mile warranty.

My 2010 Prius had an eight year 100K warranty. The battery started to deteriorate at eight years and one month, 73K miles. It died at nine years and one month at 78k miles. It would have been $3,500 to replace out of warranty but Toyota and the Dealer kicked in money and sold me a new battery close to cost so it was $2,300. BTW it isn't miles it's time that kills batteries.

 

[The Critic]

My 2010 Prius had a eight year warranty. The battery started to deteriorate at eight years and one month, 73K miles. It died at nine years and one month at 78k miles. It would have been $3,500 to replace out of warranty but Toyota and the Dealer kicked in money and sold me a new battery close to cost so it was $2,300. BTW it isn't miles it's time that kills batteries.

Yet my 2011 still has the original HV Battery at 233,000 miles.

 

[pghvolvo]

Yet my 2011 still has the original HV Battery at 233,000 miles.

From what I can tell the more you drive the longer the battery will last. I only have 113,500 miles on my 2010 or about 8,400 per year.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Yup, and as they age NEAR TERM (starting around year 10) we're going to see landfills of EVs too expensive to repair.

200,000 miles for the typical American profile is ~8 years of driving at 12,000 mpy.
1500 charging cycles, 300-500k miles, again around 10-15 years.
Time for battery replacement. $10,000 today. On a vehicle that has depreciated to about the same value. The economic analysis will LIKELY based on modern trends to dispose of the car and get a new one.

Can we agree that MOTORTREND research and analysis, including directly quoting Musk, is sufficient or are they also wrong, like with the nonsense that a Camaro isn't an America muscle car and all these magazines are wrong too on EVs?

How Long Does a Tesla Battery Last?

A look at what Tesla says and what’s happening in the real world provides some answers to a tricky question.

www.motortrend.com

"...Tesla designs its products and its warranties so that the company doesn't burn through cash replacing parts at its own expense. ... Before 2020, Tesla provided an eight-year, unlimited-mileage warranty on Model S and Model X batteries and drive units. That guarantee has since been revised to eight years or 150,000 miles for those vehicles. Tesla's less expensive models have shorter mileage limits. The Model 3 RWD is covered for 8 years or 100,000 miles, while Performance, Long Range AWD, and Standard Range AWD versions of the Model 3 and Model Y are guaranteed for 8 years or 120,000 miles. "According to Tesla's 2021 impact report, its batteries are designed to last the life of the vehicle, which the company estimates as roughly 200,000 miles in the U.S. and 150,000 miles in Europe. Tesla's own data show Model S and X batteries retain about 90 percent of their original capacity on average over 200,000 miles of use. Tesla CEO Elon Musk also once tweeted that the battery pack in the Model 3 and Model Y was designed to last 1,500 charging cycles, which translates to about 300,000 miles for Standard Range models and about 500,000 miles for Long Range versions."

This is not an analysis. There is simply not enough data to do a proper analysis. In addition, products do not automatically fail at end of warranty. Tesla even offers warranty extensions, by the way.
If you can't measure it, it's not real. You are stating, with no data, that a battery will require replacement in 10 years. You also posted "They have been posted and discussed ad nasuem, and it's all out there if are receptive to views that counter your views and you care to get the information."