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#377286 - 08/08/05 08:25 AM Re: Investors....come in please!
GROUCHO MARX Offline


Registered: 07/24/02
Posts: 11410
Loc: The Sandhills of NewYorkistan
JHZR2, nothing wrong with taking a profit.

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#377287 - 08/10/05 12:58 AM Re: Investors....come in please!
GROUCHO MARX Offline


Registered: 07/24/02
Posts: 11410
Loc: The Sandhills of NewYorkistan
Oil up, crap for the market.

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#377288 - 08/10/05 01:11 AM Re: Investors....come in please!
Bugshu Offline


Registered: 08/06/04
Posts: 247
Loc: Texas
Earnings history for Pep Boys.

July 04 Est .37 Actual .29
Oct. 04 Est .20 Actual .14
Jan. 05 Est .01 Actual -.18
Apr. 05 Est .20 Actual -.04

Total Miss past 12 months .57 cents.

Next earnings report est .11 cents.

Im not sure that Pep Boys can hold in there if they miss again. Debts already reduced to junk. BBB-

What do I know? None of you listened to me when I last recommended Kosp.

I cant help but wonder if high gas prices will keep mileage off older cars and the need to replace tires will drop. Employee pricing has encouraged many to trade in clunkers for new cars and that wont help pep boys either. They seem to be remodeling their entire line of stores and I cant imagine earnings being positive until they get done with that project. But hey, Im just a good ole boy from Texas and shorting stock can be tricky.

Oh well .... Do your own due diligence.

Happy Motoring All,

[Cool]

Bugshu

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#377289 - 08/10/05 02:29 AM Re: Investors....come in please!
GROUCHO MARX Offline


Registered: 07/24/02
Posts: 11410
Loc: The Sandhills of NewYorkistan
Bugshu, I can't speak specifically about pep boys, but a lot of the SUVs sold 5-7 years ago are due for a lot of parts replacement.

If the owners can't afford to get killed on a trade/sale, they will have to repair.

A bud in auto parts (independent) is seeing this.

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#377290 - 08/12/05 06:59 AM Re: Investors....come in please!
TheLoneRanger Offline


Registered: 05/27/02
Posts: 1456
Loc: Southeast United States
I heard mention yesterday of a nationwide truckers strike, because of high fuel prices. Can you imagine what a strike like that would do to the stock market?

He he, just something to keep everyone awake at night....
[Sleeping]

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#377291 - 08/12/05 05:27 PM Re: Investors....come in please!
Amkeer Offline


Registered: 05/06/03
Posts: 2426
Loc: Florida
Might as well vent! I am embarrased to admit we voted for Bush! I am disgusted with the way he has handled his job over the term. Most evrything is out of control and the oil prices will certainly kill any recovery that has happened the past few years in the economy. The gas prices were about $1.20 when Clinton left office.

There has been no attempt to intimidate the oil market by correct verbage. Now it has free reign to escalate rapidly. The problem now is we haven't even seen the worst of the oil prices yet since the charts haven't showed the rapid blow off phase.

So we have rising interest rates to curb inflation that can't be curbed because of rapidly rising fuel costs. On top of that we have a housing market that is cooling that has been feeding the majority of growth. So when this thing goes south what will they do to stimulate???? Ugly!!!!

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#377292 - 08/12/05 06:20 PM Re: Investors....come in please!
GROUCHO MARX Offline


Registered: 07/24/02
Posts: 11410
Loc: The Sandhills of NewYorkistan
Amkkeer, I don't think there is much more any one person could do about the economy. Commodity prices will be what they will be. I guess we could try to blow China off the face of the earth to curb their demand for oil?

The only bright spot that I can see is that at least exports are growing at a faster rate than imports, and that's pretty impressive considering how the high price of crude is affecting imports.

Don't despair, it won't do any good. You can always short.

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#377293 - 08/12/05 06:24 PM Re: Investors....come in please!
Pablo Offline


Registered: 10/28/02
Posts: 46689
Loc: Duvall WA - Pacific NW USA
The oil price is speculative - and ridiculous. I'm not sure if it's 100% the pres's fault - BUT some cooling needs to come.

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#377294 - 08/12/05 06:32 PM Re: Investors....come in please!
GROUCHO MARX Offline


Registered: 07/24/02
Posts: 11410
Loc: The Sandhills of NewYorkistan
P, oil inventories are high. A correction should come. Use less, save money.

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#377295 - 08/13/05 01:15 PM Re: Investors....come in please!
Bugshu Offline


Registered: 08/06/04
Posts: 247
Loc: Texas
The Venezualan situation has everyone scared. There isnt any excess capacity in the world and Venezuala is rattling swords and threatening to shut down production. Opinions on Venezuala vary and you could almost suggest that its leaning towards communism or certainly socialism and democratic values are not present. You have a leader using oil profits to insure votes so that he can stay in power which isnt an ideal situation. On the other hand you have a leader sharing oil profits with his citizens rather than building palaces and trying to build an army.

I dont know what to think but Venezuala has everyone scared.

The growing demand for oil in China is inevitable in a country thats turning from a 3rd World Nation to an economic powerhouse. But hey we like cheap imports when we shop and establishing competition for oil isnt a problem for us. We import so very much from China that it shouldnt surprise any of us that China competes with us for oil.

Im not sure we can blame the current president for the demands in the oil market. Venezuala nationalized its oil fields long before Bush came into office. Our love of Chinese imports cant be blamed on George W. Weve handed the keys to the kingdom over to China.

Its stupid of us to want to hire Chinese workers to build us cheap stuff and then not expect them to want to buy cars and the gasoline that powers them. People work; they make money; they buy a car; they buy gasoline for it. We can hire Americans or we can hire Chinese and when we shop we hire the Chinese because they work cheaper and the cash register receipt shows the value of hiring the Chinese.

Its easy to blame the President but hes a minor pawn in the price of oil. Supply and Demand is what matters and Demand is up because of China and supply is uncertain because of Venezuala. Uncertainty leads to speculation and the buying of commodities contracts and the perfect storm of fear, speculation, high demand, and supply fears leads to $3 gasoline.

I think its totally unfair to blame the president. I can think of problems that are his fault but high oil prices arent among them.

Im completely scared that continuation of rising oil prices can derail our economy. The trade deficit is staggering and its rising with every increase in the price of oil.

Happy Motoring All,

[Cool]

Bugshu

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#377296 - 08/13/05 06:25 PM Re: Investors....come in please!
GROUCHO MARX Offline


Registered: 07/24/02
Posts: 11410
Loc: The Sandhills of NewYorkistan
Bugshu, I couldn't agree more. The money one's saving buying cheap Chinese goods, is now going into the gas tank.

Oil is a commodity, laws of economics govern it, not Dubya.

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#377297 - 08/14/05 09:34 AM Re: Investors....come in please!
Drew99GT Offline


Registered: 10/11/02
Posts: 20748
Loc: Colorado Springs
Bush's twin defecit policies which in part caused the dollar to fall are in part responsible for the higher cost of oil.

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#377298 - 08/14/05 02:33 AM Re: Investors....come in please!
Amkeer Offline


Registered: 05/06/03
Posts: 2426
Loc: Florida
Good post Bug.

Bush is not as helpless as most would think. He is lacking the creativity necessary to implement a strategy to to forestall the manipulation that is evident with the oil futures. Unfortunately any strategy at this point will be a little to late to circumvent the powering up in the technical pattern in a BULLISH trend. Any technical strategist could have advised the appropriate adviser to make the appropriate call at a strategic pattern that would have determined the shorter term BULLISH or BEARISH pattern. This was available at $58 a barrel and was effectively ignored or not implemented, hence the breakout $60 and beyond. This may be ignored by design in order to allow oil prices to rise. I do not know what positive will come from rising oil prices. If you are part of the oil companies I guess its a positive for you, but how positive can it be if everyone else is suffering.

You may say you need to reduce consumption in order for prices to fall, but this couldn't be furthest from the truth. Lower consumption would inevitabely lead to EVEN HIGHER prices to compensate for lower revenue.

Bottom line is oil is a renewable resource since its a fossil fuel. The market is manipulated to pad the pockets of the wealthy and squash everyone else. Greed destroys and this is a prime example of greed!

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#377299 - 08/14/05 08:13 AM Re: Investors....come in please!
GROUCHO MARX Offline


Registered: 07/24/02
Posts: 11410
Loc: The Sandhills of NewYorkistan
Sorry Drew, oil is more expensive all over the world, not just in the U.S.

Twin deficits are not uncommon. I do believe the government is spending like a drunken sailor, but tax revenues are increasing and there has been a war and a recession which makes deficit spending more likely.

On trade deficits, the price of crude is a large component. I believe that exports are currently growing at a faster rate than imports, doesn't mean that I'm optimistic.

If you want a real look into the future, catch a glimpse of local taxation and spending. Most states are in for a bleak future as are most local taxpayers.

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#377300 - 08/15/05 09:19 AM Re: Investors....come in please!
Drew99GT Offline


Registered: 10/11/02
Posts: 20748
Loc: Colorado Springs
Groucho, oil is more expensive to us RELATIVE to other currecies that have appreciated against the dollar. Oil exporters have raised the price of crude in US DOLLARS for this very reason. I read an article on the National Review website about it last year but I can't find it now. There's been many other articles written about it.

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