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#375876 - 01/18/04 03:23 AM Re: Investors....come in please!
Pablo Offline


Registered: 10/28/02
Posts: 46630
Loc: Duvall WA - Pacific NW USA
Primus - gotcha covered (see my China stock recommendations!)

You are right in a way, but China is a funny place and still quite dependent on us to consume.

Man, I need to make it to Minsk someday. What's the temp? How are the girls?...oops... [Embarrassed]

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#375877 - 01/18/04 05:24 AM Re: Investors....come in please!
Drew99GT Online   happy


Registered: 10/11/02
Posts: 20660
Loc: Colorado Springs
quote:
Originally posted by Primus:
Last_Z,
Nobody can give you a right answer and you may know it when it would be hardly possible to change something. Any investment remains a casino. Just remember how many people lost money in 2001-2002 bear market and ask yourself what will be less painful to you: if you lose money or if you regret not to earn a little bit more.

Unlike Amkeer I don't believe that you " ... are coming off one of the worst bear market in many years! Notice I said "coming off" which means a bottom is in place in this latest "dip you are cycle"."

Unforunately nothing yet clear and despite certain evidence of improving economy it is still around the corner. I am afraid America is going to the 2nd Great Depression. We cannot watch this without worry and forecast of possible consequences since our life here fully depends on the good health the US economy. If your locomotive stops now, we can bury our hopes to recover from communist marasm and post communist reforms for the next 10 years.

What was moving market in 2003 ? Think certain optimism. People was just tired of 2001-2002 bear market. Over this, given the system of performance evaluation of funds their managers are obliged to be bullish (often irrespective of real situation) because this evaluation defines their personal well-being and earnings. Looks like they are always afraid to miss a rally.

But this market growth does not reflect fundamentals and it cannot last a long time. In addition to new stock bubble you are creating real estate bubble. To cover trade and current account deficits you need around $ 1,5 billion/day of inflow from abroad, but with weakening dollar it is a very difficult target.

Think current growth is probably limited by 3-4 %. In the best case the stock market will see some correction. In the worse, it will be investors' fear and capitulation. Then actual Japaneese stock market would not yet seem the worth scenario.

Think about gold. And good luck !

Gold and other inflationary hedges/currency hedges are skyrocketing now. Your not the only one that sees a bad thing in the highest current account defecit and budget defecit in history. Amongs the right conditions, the current account defecit hasn't always hurt us, but with a weakening dollar and a high defecit, we're not getting that money back.
[I dont know]
I wish Bush would read a newspaper column from someone who looks at the other side of what's going on and not just think that everything that his advisors shovels his way is right. With our current conditions, IMO, everything hangs on whether we have another catostrophic terrorist attack. If we do, our economy will squashed. What's Bush going to do, have another round of tax cuts to spur aggregate demand? Have more outrageous government spending to try and spur demand?

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#375878 - 01/19/04 04:32 AM Re: Investors....come in please!
Amkeer Offline


Registered: 05/06/03
Posts: 2423
Loc: Florida
Primus,

Your opinion is your opinion and you are entitled to that! I can tell you right now with HUGE confidence that you are wrong!

As far as stocks being a casino, that is depending on the individual and their approach to stocks. If your choice is to buy a stock with no research or knowledge about the company your buying into then you are rolling the dice. If you do good research and plan your purchases you will be handsomely rewarded. A step further is technical analysis which allow a technician to time entries and exits based on specific patterns.

On to the real estate bubble. A real estate bubble really depends on what region of the country you live in. If you live in Fla. like me its not an issue. If you live in the Northeast it will be a short term event since we are in the recovery phase of an economic cycle and interest rates are low.

I don't think gold is a good investment because its had its run. I don't follow the metals so I am taking that off the top of my head. If I read the charts it would tell me but I don't follow metals.

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#375879 - 01/19/04 05:47 AM Re: Investors....come in please!
GROUCHO MARX Offline


Registered: 07/24/02
Posts: 11410
Loc: The Sandhills of NewYorkistan
Amkeer, the economy really depends upon which region of the country you're in. Good luck with the charts, I feel that they are much better at predicting weakness than strength, but that's JMO.

Gold has generally been a predictor of inflation. A part of the rise in gold has to be attributed to the weakness of the greenback. Any rise in interest rates will turn that tide. I won't pump any stocks here, but I do look for a correction in the indices. I believe that 7 of the 10 best performing NASDAQ stocks did not show a profit last year. Makes one wonder?

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#375880 - 01/20/04 03:19 AM Re: Investors....come in please!
Amkeer Offline


Registered: 05/06/03
Posts: 2423
Loc: Florida
Groucho,

I have been using the Charts for over 3 years! If they didn't work I wouldn't use them!

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#375881 - 01/20/04 03:26 AM Re: Investors....come in please!
Amkeer Offline


Registered: 05/06/03
Posts: 2423
Loc: Florida
No doubt the market is overbought but it can remain that way for a long time. If it corrects I will short it. I prefer to stick with what the charts tell me rather than what I think will happen. The late money hasn't even hit the market yet!


The trend is your friend!

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#375882 - 01/21/04 07:08 AM Re: Investors....come in please!
Last_Z Offline


Registered: 10/21/02
Posts: 2790
Loc: San Antonio, TX
quote:
Originally posted by Amkeer:
No doubt the market is overbought but it can remain that way for a long time. If it corrects I will short it. I prefer to stick with what the charts tell me rather than what I think will happen. The late money hasn't even hit the market yet!


The trend is your friend!

I think the market pulled back and corrected itself a bit. Lucent is down $0.33 and maybe a bit more tomorrow. Experts think the problem is that people are expecting way too much and for investors not to pull out, profit estimates are having to be surpassed big time. It isn't enough just to meet.....you now have to exceed!

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#375883 - 01/22/04 07:16 AM Re: Investors....come in please!
Last_Z Offline


Registered: 10/21/02
Posts: 2790
Loc: San Antonio, TX
Holy crap.....Lucent and tech stocks are on the move.....moving down that is. I "stop limit" at $3.50....I'm hoping It doesn't go that low [Frown]

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#375884 - 01/22/04 07:32 AM Re: Investors....come in please!
Pablo Offline


Registered: 10/28/02
Posts: 46630
Loc: Duvall WA - Pacific NW USA
I did sell my Pfizer (on the good news) and finally my Exxon/Mobil today. Nice quick sums, not exactly by the book, but legal none the less.

David - IMH is doing nicely I notice. When do they post dividends? I had better check.

I sold all my AMD awhile back....down today.

I thought Lu reported decent earnings? But not high enough??

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#375885 - 01/22/04 07:41 AM Re: Investors....come in please!
Last_Z Offline


Registered: 10/21/02
Posts: 2790
Loc: San Antonio, TX
Pablo,
The news from Lucent are encouraging, but as has been stated before, people are beginning to think the market is overbought and all the gains thus far are solely based in hopes of a recovery and not on actual earnings and demand. The warehouse inventories are not shrinking....at least not fast enough:shrug:

EDIT: Pablo....you might wanna consider LU.....it is very risky, but has a lot of potential!

[ January 22, 2004, 11:44 PM: Message edited by: Last_Z ]

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#375886 - 01/22/04 07:43 AM Re: Investors....come in please!
Amkeer Offline


Registered: 05/06/03
Posts: 2423
Loc: Florida
Last Z did you start reading the link a gave you? No better time than now! It will make you a better investor.

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#375887 - 01/22/04 07:45 AM Re: Investors....come in please!
Last_Z Offline


Registered: 10/21/02
Posts: 2790
Loc: San Antonio, TX
yes i did.....didn't get too far though.....I had to take one of MANY Air Force tests and courses and briefings and.......

I'm done for the next few days, so I intend to finish reading it.
THANKS!!!!!

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#375888 - 01/22/04 07:48 AM Re: Investors....come in please!
Amkeer Offline


Registered: 05/06/03
Posts: 2423
Loc: Florida
Pablo,

The trend is sell the news! AMD had great earnings and it tanked! It was up 15% in 3 days!

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#375889 - 01/22/04 07:49 AM Re: Investors....come in please!
Last_Z Offline


Registered: 10/21/02
Posts: 2790
Loc: San Antonio, TX
Amkeer,
Who is your trader?

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#375890 - 01/22/04 07:55 AM Re: Investors....come in please!
Amkeer Offline


Registered: 05/06/03
Posts: 2423
Loc: Florida
It will take a long time! lots to learn! You will get there just keep it up and don't panic! I am not sure about your stop? Why? Are you preserving gains from a run up? What if it hits your stop, what will you do?

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