Investors....come in please!

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The current market cap to GDP ratio is historically greatly overvalued at 118%. This is the indicator Buffett has used in the past as a gauge to relative value in the market.

I am also currently under invested in the market because it is difficult to pinpoint new sectors with value and inflation in the market.
 
Originally Posted By: surfstar
WHAT F*&^*ING CRASH?

People have been swearing up and down about the coming crash. I started really noticing in 2013, as I was saving/investing more.

Here is what the s&p 500 has done since 1/1/2013, when "experts" were convinced a crash was coming:
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhos...9&mocktick=


Older folks worry about another recession and their nest egg losing 40% of value. Older folks want cash in mattress and not being overexposed in stocks.

You would also worry if you had all your eggs in one basket...
 
As you near retirement, you should not be 80-100% in stocks. Its called a glidepath. Increase bonds / fixed income, as you age / near retirement. Then a 40% market crash, does not hit your portfolio for 40%.

If people don't understand this, they should not be investing themselves or should stick to Target Date type funds. They rebalance and 'glide' for you.
 
Originally Posted By: JBinKC
The current market cap to GDP ratio is historically greatly overvalued at 118%. This is the indicator Buffett has used in the past as a gauge to relative value in the market.

I am also currently under invested in the market because it is difficult to pinpoint new sectors with value and inflation in the market.

I agree. The 08-09 dip was a correction, not a crash, a correction. The same conditions exist today, more or less, we may not have one, but I'm being careful. My portfolio has solid stocks. I looked at each one as to how they did in the 08 correction. I'm as covered as I'm able to get at this time.
 
I think currently stock holdings are going up in percentage terms for retired people by large percentages because I wouldn't define a 1.5% return on 10 yr treasury bond ( and with negative rates in many European countries) as a good bet long term. They are chasing high dividend stocks in droves paying rates too high to believe in some circumstances and taking on much more implied risks. It certainly explains why the market is historically over valued on that metric I used in the previous post.
 
Originally Posted By: Oldmoparguy1
Sold 2 laggards today. Picked up ~$26k. Feel better now. Ready for the crash.
coffee2.gif



lol.gif


What did you sell?
 
Originally Posted By: Pablo
Originally Posted By: Oldmoparguy1
Sold 2 laggards today. Picked up ~$26k. Feel better now. Ready for the crash.
coffee2.gif



lol.gif


What did you sell?

FOCPX - I just had the minimum buy in and changed my mind.

PG - It wasn't going anywhere and the div wasn't good enough to keep.

I had small profits in both. I sold SWKS earlier. I'm at about 1/3 cash right now.
Another new all time high for my portfolio today.
thumbsup2.gif


How you doing these days Pablo?
 
Originally Posted By: Drew99GT
Originally Posted By: firemachine69
I won't lie, not holding any other holdings besides the IAU. I'm waiting for the Ponzi scheme to come crashing...

Then it's buy time.
grin.gif



People have been saying that since the dawn of man............and US growth stocks over the long term essentially go up in a straight line and outperform all other asset classes, ESPECIALLY gold.

http://www.joshuakennon.com/stocks-vs-bonds-vs-gold-returns-for-the-past-200-years/



One: As 2008 showed, you're in a [censored] of a pickle if you're 60, laid off because there's no work and no one wants an old worker (reality of the workforce, not my opinion), and you're portfolio is a mess. So I can't really give two hoots about "historical trends" if when I might be forced to retire, I have to take a serious downward cut in lifestyle.

Two: We are at the tipping point of ground zero. There's something fundamentally wrong about paying someone to borrow your money. I think you're confusing loosening fiscal fiat policy (which bankruptcy is bankruptcy, regardless how much you supposedly owe), with true "wealth" growth. The world is wising up the American treasuries aren't worth the paper they're printed on. Understand that all that "growth" has been companies capitalizing on the ever-growing quantitative easing. 2008 basically showed that to a tee. Intel stock lost nearly half it's value, and within a few years, it was again surpassing new highs. What, did they suddenly start selling twice as many processors? Nope, they were simply accumulating people's IOU's (otherwise known as "a dollar").
 
Originally Posted By: firemachine69
The world is wising up the American treasuries aren't worth the paper they're printed on.


LMAO. People keep saying that load of [censored] as well and yields keep PLUMMETING/treasury prices climbing. Given the fact that US 10 year yields are higher than any other developed economy and they are the best rated, if the [censored] hits the fan, they STILL will be a bargain if/when US yields catch up to other developed countries where rates are going negative.

Some of you guys should really really learn economics before typing the same ultra right ring doomer non sense that people have been regurgitating for 50 years, and non of it EVER has or will come true. US debt is not the same as household debt/corporate debt or non monetarily sovereign nation debt because it's denominated in US dollars. It's literally printed money. IT'S NOT DEBT by definition and the Federal Reserve can and does set interest rates to whatever it pleases, which is why people who constantly short treasuries lose their lifes savings.

If you really believe what you say and are willing to put your money where your mouth is, buy a short treasury ETF. Load the boat and see what happens. It's a stupid bet because the chart literally goes from upper left to lower right, same as rates. That's a freight train I'd never step in front of...
 
Last edited:
Originally Posted By: Oldmoparguy1

FOCPX - I just had the minimum buy in and changed my mind.

PG - It wasn't going anywhere and the div wasn't good enough to keep.

I had small profits in both. I sold SWKS earlier. I'm at about 1/3 cash right now.
Another new all time high for my portfolio today.
thumbsup2.gif


How you doing these days Pablo?


All good really. A LOT has changed in my investment world. The money (which was not tiny)in my "original" IRA's/401K suddenly became a relatively smaller portion of my portfolio due to changes in my personal life that I cannot share publicly. The new $ (some "pre" tax, some taxed) will be invested a bit differently, point being I can be a tad more aggressive with the original $ so only speaking about that, it is around 30% cash, the rest a wide mix. But a lot of REITs and income items. 58 in a few days, 1.5 years to retire!!
 
Originally Posted By: Drew99GT
Originally Posted By: firemachine69
The world is wising up the American treasuries aren't worth the paper they're printed on.


LMAO. People keep saying that load of [censored] as well and yields keep PLUMMETING/treasury prices climbing. Given the fact that US 10 year yields are higher than any other developed economy and they are the best rated, if the [censored] hits the fan, they STILL will be a bargain if/when US yields catch up to other developed countries where rates are going negative.

Some of you guys should really really learn economics before typing the same ultra right ring doomer non sense that people have been regurgitating for 50 years, and non of it EVER has or will come true. US debt is not the same as household debt/corporate debt or non monetarily sovereign nation debt because it's denominated in US dollars. It's literally printed money. IT'S NOT DEBT by definition and the Federal Reserve can and does set interest rates to whatever it pleases, which is why people who constantly short treasuries lose their lifes savings.

If you really believe what you say and are willing to put your money where your mouth is, buy a short treasury ETF. Load the boat and see what happens. It's a stupid bet because the chart literally goes from upper left to lower right, same as rates. That's a freight train I'd never step in front of...



Please list one fiat currency that has ever survived a millennium. Patiently awaiting your response.
 
Originally Posted By: firemachine69
Originally Posted By: Drew99GT
Originally Posted By: firemachine69
The world is wising up the American treasuries aren't worth the paper they're printed on.


LMAO. People keep saying that load of [censored] as well and yields keep PLUMMETING/treasury prices climbing. Given the fact that US 10 year yields are higher than any other developed economy and they are the best rated, if the [censored] hits the fan, they STILL will be a bargain if/when US yields catch up to other developed countries where rates are going negative.

Some of you guys should really really learn economics before typing the same ultra right ring doomer non sense that people have been regurgitating for 50 years, and non of it EVER has or will come true. US debt is not the same as household debt/corporate debt or non monetarily sovereign nation debt because it's denominated in US dollars. It's literally printed money. IT'S NOT DEBT by definition and the Federal Reserve can and does set interest rates to whatever it pleases, which is why people who constantly short treasuries lose their lifes savings.

If you really believe what you say and are willing to put your money where your mouth is, buy a short treasury ETF. Load the boat and see what happens. It's a stupid bet because the chart literally goes from upper left to lower right, same as rates. That's a freight train I'd never step in front of...



Please list one fiat currency that has ever survived a millennium. Patiently awaiting your response.


Please list any historical society of your choosing that still is alive. Stupid straw man argument.
 
Originally Posted By: Drew99GT
Originally Posted By: firemachine69
Originally Posted By: Drew99GT
Originally Posted By: firemachine69
The world is wising up the American treasuries aren't worth the paper they're printed on.


LMAO. People keep saying that load of [censored] as well and yields keep PLUMMETING/treasury prices climbing. Given the fact that US 10 year yields are higher than any other developed economy and they are the best rated, if the [censored] hits the fan, they STILL will be a bargain if/when US yields catch up to other developed countries where rates are going negative.

Some of you guys should really really learn economics before typing the same ultra right ring doomer non sense that people have been regurgitating for 50 years, and non of it EVER has or will come true. US debt is not the same as household debt/corporate debt or non monetarily sovereign nation debt because it's denominated in US dollars. It's literally printed money. IT'S NOT DEBT by definition and the Federal Reserve can and does set interest rates to whatever it pleases, which is why people who constantly short treasuries lose their lifes savings.

If you really believe what you say and are willing to put your money where your mouth is, buy a short treasury ETF. Load the boat and see what happens. It's a stupid bet because the chart literally goes from upper left to lower right, same as rates. That's a freight train I'd never step in front of...



Please list one fiat currency that has ever survived a millennium. Patiently awaiting your response.


Please list any historical society of your choosing that still is alive. Stupid straw man argument.



Exactly. They almost all failed because they tried to print away the wealth created by others.
 
Originally Posted By: Warstud
Looks like Oil may have topped. May buy SCO or DNO as it drops.

For me, that would be like standing at the table throwing the dice.
 
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