Investors....come in please!

[TheLoneRanger]

Originally Posted By: GROUCHO MARX
"At this point, I can't see the bottom."
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There's a Xerox copy of Pablo's bottom somewhere out there.


I'll have to scratch my eyes out now to remove that image.......

Could this have been a capitulation day? Things are looking bleaker and bleaker; we might be getting very close to a buy-in point.....

 

[Pablo]

So bleak.

Check out the Nikkei right now.

 

[GROUCHO MARX]

Asia down at the Friday open.

 

[Pablo]

Keep watching. Almost back up....oh well I'm nauseous.

 

[VeeDubb]

I agree with JMH. There seems to be some consensus among the CNBC analysts and some of the online analysts that the bottom will be somewhere in the neighborhood of 11,000. Plus there is still so much uncertainty out there. If commercial real estate goes next, then we're in for even more fire and brimstone. So keep it in cash or in short ETFs for a while.

BTW Pablo, thanks for your previous advise on Fidelity online brokerage. I switched over to them and they are really professional. They gave me 6 months of free trades and everyone I've spoken to seems to know their sh$t.

 

[VeeDubb]

BTW, here is a great pictorial description of recessions and what the Fed is facing:

http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2008/01/are-we-in-a-rec.html

 

[Pablo]

Yesterday was a mixed bag. Finally some of my stuff held up. PFO has been performing quite nicely. I think we found where the rich guys are running!

My stouter funds did fine.

Next week we'll shake out some more chicken littles!

 

[Pablo]

Brinker was good today!!!

 

[GROUCHO MARX]

I heard part of Brinker (20 seconds). I was surprised that he placed so much blame on predatory lenders.

He knows how stupid people are and that they need protection. Most victims of scam artists are ashamed to admit to their stupidity.

 

[Pablo]

Yeah that did surprise me a bit, and he said we need stronger laws.....later he toned it down a bit with a statement about people not doing any homework at all.

His guest was good. Former Berkeley Nuke guy.

But the main tone was that the market is completely in fear mode and way oversold. He's not changing his Market Timer stance.

 

[VeeDubb]

Brace yourselves folks, as of 7:41am this morning, Dow Jones futures are -462, which puts the value at 11,644. In other words, the futures markets are predicting shock and awe tomorrow. Let's hope it is just an initial fear response to the global markets and turns around before tomorrow.

 

[Pablo]

Looks like chicken little is finally heading for the door!

 

[GROUCHO MARX]

Listen, as equities plunge the percentage of cash in my holdings increases dramatically without any action on my part!

Isn't that great!

 

[VeeDubb]

Dow futures dipped below -500 and now back up to -470. All I've gotta say is Gawd bless inverse ETFs.

 

[Turk]

The sky is so heavy, I've lost a foot of height today.

Watch out. May be a little late to pull out, but if you have a good % in Cash like I do, wait it out and pull the trigger later.

It may be a lot later IMO...

 

[Gary Allan]

Hmmm ..shock and awe ...highly liquid is good. Where have I heard this rhetoric before?


I sincerely hope that you all do very well here. Good luck

 

[Pablo]

Originally Posted By: VeeDubb
Dow futures dipped below -500 and now back up to -470. All I've gotta say is Gawd bless inverse ETFs.


Yeah the few I have help a bit but I was not that highly leveraged.

I'm really curious how the CEF and yield stuff does tomorrow. That's the key for me. If the market is heading for down 300-400+, I may go all in.....a little bird tells me the big guys are getting ready to pull the trigger. This manufactured crisis isn't nearly as bad as the press and others want it to be.

 

[VeeDubb]

Originally Posted By: Pablo
Originally Posted By: VeeDubb
Dow futures dipped below -500 and now back up to -470. All I've gotta say is Gawd bless inverse ETFs.


Yeah the few I have help a bit but I was not that highly leveraged.

I'm really curious how the CEF and yield stuff does tomorrow. That's the key for me. If the market is heading for down 300-400+, I may go all in.....a little bird tells me the big guys are getting ready to pull the trigger. This manufactured crisis isn't nearly as bad as the press and others want it to be.


I suspect you may be on to something. I think the market will take a huge dive and then the buyers will lurch back in. I may be selling half my short ETFs when they peak sometime in the AM. I'm not going to get greedy, especially since they are at all time highs.

P.S., Asian markets just opened and are already down 3-4%

 

[Pablo]

Crazy markets....yen up....yen down.........what is fundamentally different from say Friday? or Dec 21? I've got some years into this market. If I needed the money tomorrow I wouldn't be playing stocks and funds and bonds....

 

[VeeDubb]

My 401K is taking a real beating. But not much I can do and it wouldn't be wise to convert all to cash right now when the market is down. Then I'd be selling low and buying high. I figure (hope?) in the long term, it pays off. The inverse ETFs have saved my butt in the portfolios that I manage myself. But I'm starting to get real nervous because I don't know where the bottom is and when to sell the ETFs. Tomorrow could be a real turning point or yet another step down.