Stock market!!!!
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Originally Posted by PimTac
Do you know why the market futures are up so much this morning?
Preparation to play the futures and now its starting to look like what they call the dead cat bounce.
Do you know why the market futures are up so much this morning?
Preparation to play the futures and now its starting to look like what they call the dead cat bounce.
Last edited:
Originally Posted by JohnnyJohnson
Originally Posted by PimTac
Do you know why the market futures are up so much this morning?
Preparation to play the futures and now its starting to look like what they call the dead cat bounce.
Starting to look that way. My experience tells me that when we see these big swings both ways in the market it's like ventricular fibrillation in a patient. The outlook is concerning.
Originally Posted by PimTac
Do you know why the market futures are up so much this morning?
Preparation to play the futures and now its starting to look like what they call the dead cat bounce.
Starting to look that way. My experience tells me that when we see these big swings both ways in the market it's like ventricular fibrillation in a patient. The outlook is concerning.
I'm just a casual investor, the sorta guy who leaves most of his money in a target date index fund and forgets about it for years at a time. I have a couple of local Seattle stocks I bought about 10 years ago that have done really well, but otherwise I'm just not smart or interested enough to drill down to individual stocks unless I know people working at the company. I have rental property as well, which I like--since it's positive cashflow and tangible assets I can touch and feel (and replace water heaters when they go bad....).
That said, from a macro perspective, I got scared in mid-December and pulled out and put my money on a MM bond fund. Not because of Covid 19, but because of the general state of China. I spend enough time in Asia to be able to tell that the trade war was really putting small and mid-tier suppliers under a tremendous amount of strain, with a lot of them at the breaking point. I figured this ripple effect would have a pretty big impact on the economy here and worldwide, and I didn't really have much faith in the last trade deal.
Fast forward to mid-January when I was on one of the last flights out of Taiwan before Chinese New Year, and when I saw the Chinese were cancelling events for the Spring Festival the seriousness of the virus hit home. I told a good friend of mine, whose family had literally lost everything during the great Taiwanese crash in 1990, to get out of the market. He did. There will naturally be trolling comments about it being impossible to time the peak, blah blah.. and really, I don't care. I didn't time the peak (though by happenstance, my Taiwanese friend pretty much did...). I did get out just before it though. I got out in time specifically because I DIDN'T try and time the peak. I got out because I wasn't greedy. I had roughly 10 years of ridiculous growth, and was happy with it.
I got out not because of what I read on the internet, but because of what I saw with my two eyes, in China. People leveraged to the absolute hilt--their property, their businesses, their factories...everything. I'm sure some will say "so what, this isn't China". I think it's time to understand China's role in the global economy--not just their exports, but their consumption. I think this guy lays it out pretty well. China has an outsized role in our economy, and their problems are going to be our problems.
When you look at the problems China is facing and add in the domestic turmoil from the Covid 19 epidemic (and the response), and I just don't see how this is going to be a short-term thing. I'm sure there are some current opportunities for those who like to gamble, and I'm moving a portion right now into an energy ETF myself--the portion I won't look at for 10 years. But I'm just sitting on the rest, and I will continue to do so until things get right in China.* None of this is "advice", just one guy's opinion. I'm sure there will be plenty of people to tell me how stupid I am, and how I won't get lucky twice. And that's fine.
*I see comments about Apple and Starbucks being "back" in China, and somehow that's viewed as a sign that everything is OK. I just don't see it that way. This is a simple prop, for their own people and for the west, to say "everything's gonna be ok". This is what they do. Everything is not OK. They are operating on about 60% capacity, at best. Workers can't get back to work, goods can't get to and from port because of roadblocks and quarantines, shipping lines are clogged.. It is going to be months before this is resolved over there, and the ripple effects are going to be felt here for several months or a year or two.
That said, from a macro perspective, I got scared in mid-December and pulled out and put my money on a MM bond fund. Not because of Covid 19, but because of the general state of China. I spend enough time in Asia to be able to tell that the trade war was really putting small and mid-tier suppliers under a tremendous amount of strain, with a lot of them at the breaking point. I figured this ripple effect would have a pretty big impact on the economy here and worldwide, and I didn't really have much faith in the last trade deal.
Fast forward to mid-January when I was on one of the last flights out of Taiwan before Chinese New Year, and when I saw the Chinese were cancelling events for the Spring Festival the seriousness of the virus hit home. I told a good friend of mine, whose family had literally lost everything during the great Taiwanese crash in 1990, to get out of the market. He did. There will naturally be trolling comments about it being impossible to time the peak, blah blah.. and really, I don't care. I didn't time the peak (though by happenstance, my Taiwanese friend pretty much did...). I did get out just before it though. I got out in time specifically because I DIDN'T try and time the peak. I got out because I wasn't greedy. I had roughly 10 years of ridiculous growth, and was happy with it.
I got out not because of what I read on the internet, but because of what I saw with my two eyes, in China. People leveraged to the absolute hilt--their property, their businesses, their factories...everything. I'm sure some will say "so what, this isn't China". I think it's time to understand China's role in the global economy--not just their exports, but their consumption. I think this guy lays it out pretty well. China has an outsized role in our economy, and their problems are going to be our problems.
When you look at the problems China is facing and add in the domestic turmoil from the Covid 19 epidemic (and the response), and I just don't see how this is going to be a short-term thing. I'm sure there are some current opportunities for those who like to gamble, and I'm moving a portion right now into an energy ETF myself--the portion I won't look at for 10 years. But I'm just sitting on the rest, and I will continue to do so until things get right in China.* None of this is "advice", just one guy's opinion. I'm sure there will be plenty of people to tell me how stupid I am, and how I won't get lucky twice. And that's fine.
*I see comments about Apple and Starbucks being "back" in China, and somehow that's viewed as a sign that everything is OK. I just don't see it that way. This is a simple prop, for their own people and for the west, to say "everything's gonna be ok". This is what they do. Everything is not OK. They are operating on about 60% capacity, at best. Workers can't get back to work, goods can't get to and from port because of roadblocks and quarantines, shipping lines are clogged.. It is going to be months before this is resolved over there, and the ripple effects are going to be felt here for several months or a year or two.
JOD,
Quote
I got out in time specifically because I DIDN'T try and time the peak. I got out because I wasn't greedy. I had roughly 10 years of ridiculous growth, and was happy w
ith it.
Yep. ðŸ‘
That's exactly how I felt.
I was telling some people I know it's time to sell at least 50% and sleep well at night. Wait to get back into the market.
Quote
I got out in time specifically because I DIDN'T try and time the peak. I got out because I wasn't greedy. I had roughly 10 years of ridiculous growth, and was happy w
ith it.
Yep. ðŸ‘
That's exactly how I felt.
I was telling some people I know it's time to sell at least 50% and sleep well at night. Wait to get back into the market.
Originally Posted by Navi
Look just buy it and come back in May and re evaluate. The market will trade as it will. Wall Street doesnt care about war or disease. In fact we could all be dead and the market still trades. All I know now is the time to buy.
The market does care about everything that's going on that involves people and their money investments and spending. And now the stock market is connected to the world economy more than it's ever been. If a world wide virus/disease causes world wide havoc and people don't work and spend or invest money, then that's about as close to a real factor that effects the stock market then you'll ever find.
Look just buy it and come back in May and re evaluate. The market will trade as it will. Wall Street doesnt care about war or disease. In fact we could all be dead and the market still trades. All I know now is the time to buy.
The market does care about everything that's going on that involves people and their money investments and spending. And now the stock market is connected to the world economy more than it's ever been. If a world wide virus/disease causes world wide havoc and people don't work and spend or invest money, then that's about as close to a real factor that effects the stock market then you'll ever find.
Are the markets beholden to the Federal Reserve...... or is the Federal Reserve beholden to the markets ?
Not political, just wondering... 🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔
Not political, just wondering... 🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔
Originally Posted by Mr Nice
Are the markets beholden to the Federal Reserve...... or is the Federal Reserve beholden to the markets ?
Not political, just wondering... 🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔
The Fed feeds the markets when they get hungry. Today they got around $1 trillion. It was the largest pump that I know of.
Are the markets beholden to the Federal Reserve...... or is the Federal Reserve beholden to the markets ?
Not political, just wondering... 🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔
The Fed feeds the markets when they get hungry. Today they got around $1 trillion. It was the largest pump that I know of.
Things not good when they need to pump in $1 trillion.
Originally Posted by Mr Nice
Things not good when they need to pump in $1 trillion.
Things have not been good in many years
Things not good when they need to pump in $1 trillion.
Things have not been good in many years
Up on the down. Earnings are taking a hit and the market is pricing in a looming recession. This correction is long overdue. The market has been on fire for 11 years. It doesn't grow like a tree. I lost a whopping half a percent on the downtrend so far. This came after the Oval Office speech which cratered the markets.
Short covering happened yesterday at the close and drove the market up. We will see what Monday brings.
Short covering happened yesterday at the close and drove the market up. We will see what Monday brings.
WMT
Schroeder's Cat Bounce. The euphoria will vane. The fundamentals haven't change. Time to wipe out the floor and wait for new rush to the counters.
Every down January since 1950 was followed by a bear market. The notable exception was 2010: we had a nice 17% correction in the second quarter, but it was swift.
For now, technicals and fundamentals are broken.
Every down January since 1950 was followed by a bear market. The notable exception was 2010: we had a nice 17% correction in the second quarter, but it was swift.
For now, technicals and fundamentals are broken.
Originally Posted by Y_K
Schroeder's Cat Bounce. The euphoria will vane. The fundamentals haven't change. Time to wipe out the floor and wait for new rush to the counters.
Every down January since 1950 was followed by a bear market. The notable exception was 2010: we had a nice 17% correction in the second quarter, but it was swift.
For now, technicals and fundamentals are broken.
Naw, it's not Schrodinger's cat. That just calls out superposition. The market is not both, one day it's up and the other it's down, it's not down and up at the same time.
But probably true, wild gyrations probably for the next several weeks or months.
Schroeder's Cat Bounce. The euphoria will vane. The fundamentals haven't change. Time to wipe out the floor and wait for new rush to the counters.
Every down January since 1950 was followed by a bear market. The notable exception was 2010: we had a nice 17% correction in the second quarter, but it was swift.
For now, technicals and fundamentals are broken.
Naw, it's not Schrodinger's cat. That just calls out superposition. The market is not both, one day it's up and the other it's down, it's not down and up at the same time.
But probably true, wild gyrations probably for the next several weeks or months.
Thank you for correcting my misspellings. What was I thinking?
On the substance: the very nature of auction markets is one of the Schroedingers Katze: there is Ying and Yang, Bull and Bear at the same time. It's catastrophic though, when one of the sides suddenly disappears - that's when real trouble comes.
Mr Hegel also smiles, as it is a great example of Unity of Opposites.
Anyway, damage to Economy as we know is done, I have no tears for Hollywood though, but a lot of good companies will go under as well with this Titanic. And it is not a virus, of course, that has done the damage. It is Mass Manias, as always. Psychology rules. I wonder how Rentech is doing right now...
On the substance: the very nature of auction markets is one of the Schroedingers Katze: there is Ying and Yang, Bull and Bear at the same time. It's catastrophic though, when one of the sides suddenly disappears - that's when real trouble comes.
Mr Hegel also smiles, as it is a great example of Unity of Opposites.
Anyway, damage to Economy as we know is done, I have no tears for Hollywood though, but a lot of good companies will go under as well with this Titanic. And it is not a virus, of course, that has done the damage. It is Mass Manias, as always. Psychology rules. I wonder how Rentech is doing right now...
Originally Posted by Y_K
Thank you for correcting my misspellings. What was I thinking?
On the substance: the very nature of auction markets is one of the Schroedingers Katze: there is Ying and Yang, Bull and Bear at the same time. It's catastrophic though, when one of the sides suddenly disappears - that's when real trouble comes.
Mr Hegel also smiles, as it is a great example of Unity of Opposites.
Anyway, damage to Economy as we know is done, I have no tears for Hollywood though, but a lot of good companies will go under as well with this Titanic. And it is not a virus, of course, that has done the damage. It is Mass Manias, as always. Psychology rules. I wonder how Rentech is doing right now...
I don't think you understand superposition. It would be up and down at the same time. Not up one moment and down the next. Like having tea and no tea at the same time. Plus you're using it with the assumption that it's a dead cat, it's supposed to be unknown but the normal term is dead cat bounce. Nice use of the term though it only really applies to the quantum realm. Now if the false vacuum is true, we'd have nothing to worry about.
It's not mass manias. It's history. Just look at what happened during the spanish flu. Same thing is happening in Italy now. Doctors are deciding who can live or die at the hospitals because there's only so many ventilators to go around. That's one of the contributing factors to the higher death rate.
Thank you for correcting my misspellings. What was I thinking?
On the substance: the very nature of auction markets is one of the Schroedingers Katze: there is Ying and Yang, Bull and Bear at the same time. It's catastrophic though, when one of the sides suddenly disappears - that's when real trouble comes.
Mr Hegel also smiles, as it is a great example of Unity of Opposites.
Anyway, damage to Economy as we know is done, I have no tears for Hollywood though, but a lot of good companies will go under as well with this Titanic. And it is not a virus, of course, that has done the damage. It is Mass Manias, as always. Psychology rules. I wonder how Rentech is doing right now...
I don't think you understand superposition. It would be up and down at the same time. Not up one moment and down the next. Like having tea and no tea at the same time. Plus you're using it with the assumption that it's a dead cat, it's supposed to be unknown but the normal term is dead cat bounce. Nice use of the term though it only really applies to the quantum realm. Now if the false vacuum is true, we'd have nothing to worry about.
It's not mass manias. It's history. Just look at what happened during the spanish flu. Same thing is happening in Italy now. Doctors are deciding who can live or die at the hospitals because there's only so many ventilators to go around. That's one of the contributing factors to the higher death rate.
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