Will today's cars last 20 years?
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Patman
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I believe the brakes and the suspension on the Probe GT were considerably better than that of the 626 though. That car handled and braked better than just about any car back in 1993 when it came out. My mom bought a 94 GT brand new and it was a fun car to drive!
I think that was simply because most Probes had the "sport" suspension, while most 626s did not-and also I recall all Probes had performance tires. My sister had a base (4-cylinder/auto) Probe SE, and the handling was nothing special.
Originally Posted By: Chris142
Very few will last 20 yrs. The cost to replace and reprogram the various modules will be cost prohibitive if even available. Planned obsolence.
Yep. Manufacturers have you by the short hairs. Load up all the new vehicles with as many electronic dodads as possible, and then they stop producing replacement electronic parts rendering the vehicle useless...
Very few will last 20 yrs. The cost to replace and reprogram the various modules will be cost prohibitive if even available. Planned obsolence.
Yep. Manufacturers have you by the short hairs. Load up all the new vehicles with as many electronic dodads as possible, and then they stop producing replacement electronic parts rendering the vehicle useless...
Originally Posted By: grampi
Originally Posted By: Chris142
Very few will last 20 yrs. The cost to replace and reprogram the various modules will be cost prohibitive if even available. Planned obsolence.
Yep. Manufacturers have you by the short hairs. Load up all the new vehicles with as many electronic dodads as possible, and then they stop producing replacement electronic parts rendering the vehicle useless...
No. The years are not as important. It's the mileage that's a better barometer for the longevity of a vehicle. Data today shows people are keeping their rides longer. Engines are mush better, oils are better, tires last longer, cars do not rust nearly as bad as they did 40-50 years ago. Also many BITOG members have vehicles that are 1998 models and older. Here is a link showing that.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/201...r-too/30821191/
Originally Posted By: Chris142
Very few will last 20 yrs. The cost to replace and reprogram the various modules will be cost prohibitive if even available. Planned obsolence.
Yep. Manufacturers have you by the short hairs. Load up all the new vehicles with as many electronic dodads as possible, and then they stop producing replacement electronic parts rendering the vehicle useless...
No. The years are not as important. It's the mileage that's a better barometer for the longevity of a vehicle. Data today shows people are keeping their rides longer. Engines are mush better, oils are better, tires last longer, cars do not rust nearly as bad as they did 40-50 years ago. Also many BITOG members have vehicles that are 1998 models and older. Here is a link showing that.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/201...r-too/30821191/
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The issue I have with that warranty is if it ever costs them more to repair the vehicle than it's worth they just decline & pay you the difference & your done!
Originally Posted By: tig1
Originally Posted By: grampi
Originally Posted By: Chris142
Very few will last 20 yrs. The cost to replace and reprogram the various modules will be cost prohibitive if even available. Planned obsolence.
Yep. Manufacturers have you by the short hairs. Load up all the new vehicles with as many electronic dodads as possible, and then they stop producing replacement electronic parts rendering the vehicle useless...
No. The years are not as important. It's the mileage that's a better barometer for the longevity of a vehicle. Data today shows people are keeping their rides longer. Engines are mush better, oils are better, tires last longer, cars do not rust nearly as bad as they did 40-50 years ago. Also many BITOG members have vehicles that are 1998 models and older. Here is a link showing that.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/201...r-too/30821191/
What difference does it make how long these things last if one electronic component that if failed, renders the vehicle inoperable, is no longer made?
Originally Posted By: grampi
Originally Posted By: Chris142
Very few will last 20 yrs. The cost to replace and reprogram the various modules will be cost prohibitive if even available. Planned obsolence.
Yep. Manufacturers have you by the short hairs. Load up all the new vehicles with as many electronic dodads as possible, and then they stop producing replacement electronic parts rendering the vehicle useless...
No. The years are not as important. It's the mileage that's a better barometer for the longevity of a vehicle. Data today shows people are keeping their rides longer. Engines are mush better, oils are better, tires last longer, cars do not rust nearly as bad as they did 40-50 years ago. Also many BITOG members have vehicles that are 1998 models and older. Here is a link showing that.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/201...r-too/30821191/
What difference does it make how long these things last if one electronic component that if failed, renders the vehicle inoperable, is no longer made?
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Originally Posted By: grampi
Originally Posted By: tig1
Originally Posted By: grampi
Originally Posted By: Chris142
Very few will last 20 yrs. The cost to replace and reprogram the various modules will be cost prohibitive if even available. Planned obsolence.
Yep. Manufacturers have you by the short hairs. Load up all the new vehicles with as many electronic dodads as possible, and then they stop producing replacement electronic parts rendering the vehicle useless...
No. The years are not as important. It's the mileage that's a better barometer for the longevity of a vehicle. Data today shows people are keeping their rides longer. Engines are mush better, oils are better, tires last longer, cars do not rust nearly as bad as they did 40-50 years ago. Also many BITOG members have vehicles that are 1998 models and older. Here is a link showing that.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/201...r-too/30821191/
What difference does it make how long these things last if one electronic component that if failed, renders the vehicle inoperable, is no longer made?
There will always be aftermarket companies that remanufacture electronic modules. Your scenario of thousands of vehicles sitting inoperable because of one little module that doesn't exist anymore will never happen.
Originally Posted By: tig1
Originally Posted By: grampi
Originally Posted By: Chris142
Very few will last 20 yrs. The cost to replace and reprogram the various modules will be cost prohibitive if even available. Planned obsolence.
Yep. Manufacturers have you by the short hairs. Load up all the new vehicles with as many electronic dodads as possible, and then they stop producing replacement electronic parts rendering the vehicle useless...
No. The years are not as important. It's the mileage that's a better barometer for the longevity of a vehicle. Data today shows people are keeping their rides longer. Engines are mush better, oils are better, tires last longer, cars do not rust nearly as bad as they did 40-50 years ago. Also many BITOG members have vehicles that are 1998 models and older. Here is a link showing that.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/201...r-too/30821191/
What difference does it make how long these things last if one electronic component that if failed, renders the vehicle inoperable, is no longer made?
There will always be aftermarket companies that remanufacture electronic modules. Your scenario of thousands of vehicles sitting inoperable because of one little module that doesn't exist anymore will never happen.
Originally Posted By: PimTac
I’ll bet that this same discussion took place twenty years ago and twenty years before that.
It is. I've been hearing this same thing since I first got interested in cars at the age of 10. Fifty years ago.
Robert Gottlieb, Motor Trend's Classic Comments writer was making the same claim about any car of the 60s ever being collectible: too complex, pot metal, too plastic, who would want to etc.
Always fun to revisit the topic periodically.
It's not different this time. Really.
I’ll bet that this same discussion took place twenty years ago and twenty years before that.
It is. I've been hearing this same thing since I first got interested in cars at the age of 10. Fifty years ago.
Robert Gottlieb, Motor Trend's Classic Comments writer was making the same claim about any car of the 60s ever being collectible: too complex, pot metal, too plastic, who would want to etc.
Always fun to revisit the topic periodically.
It's not different this time. Really.
Originally Posted By: philipp10
I cannot understand why I would want a car to last that long. Safety technology is changing so quickly that an old car actually costs you more in higher insurance premiums...of course offset by the low depreciation of an old car. But overall, I want something no older than maybe 14 years.
I've never encountered a higher premium just because a car has period safety features.
At a certain point, insurance costs are lower because having collision and comprehensive on a car after 7-10 years makes no financial sense at all.
If there's some data out there confirming your claim, I'd be happy to see it. It's something I have never encountered and I've owned a 63 Valiant for 37 years, an 86 Calais that I first bought in 1992 and recently got back from a family member and an 05 ION.
I buy my cars for the long term. And with that in mind it's usually, simple, basic, with minimal gadgets and one that has been in production with widespread use of corporate components that will be available for years.
As well, depreciation is not an issue as I don't plan on selling or trading and in the end will have gotten full value for the money. So any penalty I might have allegedly incurred via insurance is negated.
And for added safety both hands on the wheel, seat belts buckled, use of mirrors, signals, no phone [censored] and no drinking and driving. Vehicle, tires, pressure and brake systems maintained and operational.
Well over 50% of vehicle casualties are from people too ignorant to fasten their seat belts according to AAA. I've increased my own safety just by taking a simple action.
I cannot understand why I would want a car to last that long. Safety technology is changing so quickly that an old car actually costs you more in higher insurance premiums...of course offset by the low depreciation of an old car. But overall, I want something no older than maybe 14 years.
I've never encountered a higher premium just because a car has period safety features.
At a certain point, insurance costs are lower because having collision and comprehensive on a car after 7-10 years makes no financial sense at all.
If there's some data out there confirming your claim, I'd be happy to see it. It's something I have never encountered and I've owned a 63 Valiant for 37 years, an 86 Calais that I first bought in 1992 and recently got back from a family member and an 05 ION.
I buy my cars for the long term. And with that in mind it's usually, simple, basic, with minimal gadgets and one that has been in production with widespread use of corporate components that will be available for years.
As well, depreciation is not an issue as I don't plan on selling or trading and in the end will have gotten full value for the money. So any penalty I might have allegedly incurred via insurance is negated.
And for added safety both hands on the wheel, seat belts buckled, use of mirrors, signals, no phone [censored] and no drinking and driving. Vehicle, tires, pressure and brake systems maintained and operational.
Well over 50% of vehicle casualties are from people too ignorant to fasten their seat belts according to AAA. I've increased my own safety just by taking a simple action.
Originally Posted By: Garak
Originally Posted By: billt460
Basically yes. Say 15 years down the road the transmission takes a dump....
Still nothing terribly wrong with that. On occasion, Chrysler Canada has offered lifetime warranties on Cummins engines. Considering how some of those vehicles hold their value, that could be more troublesome to them.
In that case, they hold their value because it is reliable, so that is good for Chrysler Canada too.
Originally Posted By: billt460
Basically yes. Say 15 years down the road the transmission takes a dump....
Still nothing terribly wrong with that. On occasion, Chrysler Canada has offered lifetime warranties on Cummins engines. Considering how some of those vehicles hold their value, that could be more troublesome to them.
In that case, they hold their value because it is reliable, so that is good for Chrysler Canada too.
I just had a cluster rebuilt on my Y2K Mustang in Richmond, VA by a local electronics repair place. They claim they can rebuild anything, so the electronic stuff I once worried about I don't worry about so much anymore.
Back in the sixty's Chevy 283-327-350 ford 289-302-351-460 Chrysler slant 6-318-383-440 Caddy 472-500 all could reach 100,000-200,000 miles with good service. And you could Carry spare parts in a tool bag if you broke down. I repaired these cars in my shop. What spare parts can you carry with today's cars. Today's cars think for us and make decisions for us. Yes safety is better with air bags, ABS (smacking your head into a steel dash). Better gas mileage. But I miss the old iron. Just saying.
Originally Posted By: littleant
Back in the sixty's Chevy 283-327-350 ford 289-302-351-460 Chrysler slant 6-318-383-440 Caddy 472-500 all could reach 100,000-200,000 miles with good service. And you could Carry spare parts in a tool bag if you broke down. I repaired these cars in my shop. What spare parts can you carry with today's cars. Today's cars think for us and make decisions for us. Yes safety is better with air bags, ABS (smacking your head into a steel dash). Better gas mileage. But I miss the old iron. Just saying.
I miss those days too. I learned to work on my own cars living in WV in the late 70s -early 1980s and as a mechanic in the USCG. When I was in college I was too poor to have someone else work on stuff for me, so I learned to do it all myself. Nowadays all a shadetree can do is the mechanical stuff as the problems w/computer components can be complex to figure out.
Back in the sixty's Chevy 283-327-350 ford 289-302-351-460 Chrysler slant 6-318-383-440 Caddy 472-500 all could reach 100,000-200,000 miles with good service. And you could Carry spare parts in a tool bag if you broke down. I repaired these cars in my shop. What spare parts can you carry with today's cars. Today's cars think for us and make decisions for us. Yes safety is better with air bags, ABS (smacking your head into a steel dash). Better gas mileage. But I miss the old iron. Just saying.
I miss those days too. I learned to work on my own cars living in WV in the late 70s -early 1980s and as a mechanic in the USCG. When I was in college I was too poor to have someone else work on stuff for me, so I learned to do it all myself. Nowadays all a shadetree can do is the mechanical stuff as the problems w/computer components can be complex to figure out.
Originally Posted By: Silverado12
Originally Posted By: littleant
Back in the sixty's Chevy 283-327-350 ford 289-302-351-460 Chrysler slant 6-318-383-440 Caddy 472-500 all could reach 100,000-200,000 miles with good service. And you could Carry spare parts in a tool bag if you broke down. I repaired these cars in my shop. What spare parts can you carry with today's cars. Today's cars think for us and make decisions for us. Yes safety is better with air bags, ABS (smacking your head into a steel dash). Better gas mileage. But I miss the old iron. Just saying.
I miss those days too. I learned to work on my own cars living in WV in the late 70s -early 1980s and as a mechanic in the USCG. When I was in college I was too poor to have someone else work on stuff for me, so I learned to do it all myself. Nowadays all a shadetree can do is the mechanical stuff as the problems w/computer components can be complex to figure out.
+1 That's why I keep my 02 jeep. I can do all the repairs. My 2010 mountaineer not so much.
Originally Posted By: littleant
Back in the sixty's Chevy 283-327-350 ford 289-302-351-460 Chrysler slant 6-318-383-440 Caddy 472-500 all could reach 100,000-200,000 miles with good service. And you could Carry spare parts in a tool bag if you broke down. I repaired these cars in my shop. What spare parts can you carry with today's cars. Today's cars think for us and make decisions for us. Yes safety is better with air bags, ABS (smacking your head into a steel dash). Better gas mileage. But I miss the old iron. Just saying.
I miss those days too. I learned to work on my own cars living in WV in the late 70s -early 1980s and as a mechanic in the USCG. When I was in college I was too poor to have someone else work on stuff for me, so I learned to do it all myself. Nowadays all a shadetree can do is the mechanical stuff as the problems w/computer components can be complex to figure out.
+1 That's why I keep my 02 jeep. I can do all the repairs. My 2010 mountaineer not so much.
Originally Posted By: exranger06
There will always be aftermarket companies that remanufacture electronic modules. Your scenario of thousands of vehicles sitting inoperable because of one little module that doesn't exist anymore will never happen.
I beg to differ, it's already happening. I plan on buying myself a '97-'04 Corvette as a retirement gift. Many of it's electronic parts are no longer available either from GM, or the aftermarket. The EBCM (which controls the anti-lock brakes, traction control, and active handling) are no longer made by anyone, and the '97-'00 units can't even be repaired. The SWS is also no longer made by anyone. Granted, these parts don't render the vehicle undrivable, but if this is already happening with an iconic car like the Corvette, what do you think will happen with all of today's Plain Jane-mobiles once they've been discontinued or replaced with newer models? Many, if not most of today's vehicles rely on electronics to be drivable, and when those units go out and can no longer be replaced, all you have then is a spare parts-mobile...
There will always be aftermarket companies that remanufacture electronic modules. Your scenario of thousands of vehicles sitting inoperable because of one little module that doesn't exist anymore will never happen.
I beg to differ, it's already happening. I plan on buying myself a '97-'04 Corvette as a retirement gift. Many of it's electronic parts are no longer available either from GM, or the aftermarket. The EBCM (which controls the anti-lock brakes, traction control, and active handling) are no longer made by anyone, and the '97-'00 units can't even be repaired. The SWS is also no longer made by anyone. Granted, these parts don't render the vehicle undrivable, but if this is already happening with an iconic car like the Corvette, what do you think will happen with all of today's Plain Jane-mobiles once they've been discontinued or replaced with newer models? Many, if not most of today's vehicles rely on electronics to be drivable, and when those units go out and can no longer be replaced, all you have then is a spare parts-mobile...
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Originally Posted By: Silverado12
I just had a cluster rebuilt on my Y2K Mustang in Richmond, VA by a local electronics repair place. They claim they can rebuild anything, so the electronic stuff I once worried about I don't worry about so much anymore.
I would love to see them rebuild an EBCM from a '97-'00 Corvette...the circuit boards in these things are covered in a thick, epoxy-like resin material, which makes it impossible to get to the components on the board without destroying them...
I just had a cluster rebuilt on my Y2K Mustang in Richmond, VA by a local electronics repair place. They claim they can rebuild anything, so the electronic stuff I once worried about I don't worry about so much anymore.
I would love to see them rebuild an EBCM from a '97-'00 Corvette...the circuit boards in these things are covered in a thick, epoxy-like resin material, which makes it impossible to get to the components on the board without destroying them...
Originally Posted By: grampi
Originally Posted By: exranger06
There will always be aftermarket companies that remanufacture electronic modules. Your scenario of thousands of vehicles sitting inoperable because of one little module that doesn't exist anymore will never happen.
I beg to differ, it's already happening. I plan on buying myself a '97-'04 Corvette as a retirement gift. Many of it's electronic parts are no longer available either from GM, or the aftermarket. The EBCM (which controls the anti-lock brakes, traction control, and active handling) are no longer made by anyone, and the '97-'00 units can't even be repaired. The SWS is also no longer made by anyone. Granted, these parts don't render the vehicle undrivable, but if this is already happening with an iconic car like the Corvette, what do you think will happen with all of today's Plain Jane-mobiles once they've been discontinued or replaced with newer models? Many, if not most of today's vehicles rely on electronics to be drivable, and when those units go out and can no longer be replaced, all you have then is a spare parts-mobile...
If that's the case for the Corvette, then obviously there isn't enough of a market for rebuilt modules for aftermarket companies to bother fixing them. If you owned a company that rebuilt modules, and you knew there were thousands, if not millions of cars that were undrivable, but only needed a new module to become drivable, why would you not start rebuilding those modules and sell them and make millions of dollars? When consumers are faced with the decision to scrap a car and spend $30k on a new one, or fix their current car for $200 by installing a rebuilt module, most will opt for fixing it. And if almost every one will break like you say they will, there will be a HUGE market for rebuilt modules and companies WILL start rebuilding them. Like I said, your scenario of millions of cars being inoperable because of one stupid little module will never happen.
Originally Posted By: exranger06
There will always be aftermarket companies that remanufacture electronic modules. Your scenario of thousands of vehicles sitting inoperable because of one little module that doesn't exist anymore will never happen.
I beg to differ, it's already happening. I plan on buying myself a '97-'04 Corvette as a retirement gift. Many of it's electronic parts are no longer available either from GM, or the aftermarket. The EBCM (which controls the anti-lock brakes, traction control, and active handling) are no longer made by anyone, and the '97-'00 units can't even be repaired. The SWS is also no longer made by anyone. Granted, these parts don't render the vehicle undrivable, but if this is already happening with an iconic car like the Corvette, what do you think will happen with all of today's Plain Jane-mobiles once they've been discontinued or replaced with newer models? Many, if not most of today's vehicles rely on electronics to be drivable, and when those units go out and can no longer be replaced, all you have then is a spare parts-mobile...
If that's the case for the Corvette, then obviously there isn't enough of a market for rebuilt modules for aftermarket companies to bother fixing them. If you owned a company that rebuilt modules, and you knew there were thousands, if not millions of cars that were undrivable, but only needed a new module to become drivable, why would you not start rebuilding those modules and sell them and make millions of dollars? When consumers are faced with the decision to scrap a car and spend $30k on a new one, or fix their current car for $200 by installing a rebuilt module, most will opt for fixing it. And if almost every one will break like you say they will, there will be a HUGE market for rebuilt modules and companies WILL start rebuilding them. Like I said, your scenario of millions of cars being inoperable because of one stupid little module will never happen.
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