Pilot shortage

[Astro14]

Yeah there is a pilot shortage.

A decade of bankruptcies squeezing pilot pay down. A decade of outsourcing to the regionals, where pilots start at $25,000/ year and $100K in debt. A decade of little movement and hiring, so no hope for pay raises.

And the folks running airlines, those who made the jobs pay a lot less, outsourced what they could, and removed advancement opportunities, are left scratching their heads why so few people were willing to go over $100K in debt for a job that makes less than a Panera Bread associate

From 2002-2003, my pay was cut by 65%. Not a typo, not a mistake. A 42% cut in wage rate across the contract, coupled with moving from 747 FO to A320 FO and finalized by a loss of my flying to go on reserve (for a lower number of hours than typical).

People looked at my situation and shook their heads. Who would want that? I made less in 2004 as an airline pilot for United than I had as a Navy Lieutenant in 1994, ten years prior.

It was so unattractive that young folks stayed away. I would have too, had my crystal ball been better. People remained on active duty, or pursued other, more lucrative careers, like those in the hotel service or fast food industry...Panera looks pretty good by comparison...

And everyone is shocked, shocked!, that there is a pilot shortage?

OK...

 

[Astro14]

I should add that my starting pay at United Airlines in 1997 was $27 an hour. I was paid 75 hours/month.

Do the math...please.

I was working full time, flying people on a 747 across the world, trying to support a family, for LESS than the fast food workers of today are marching for.

I left the Navy, a combat - experienced fighter pilot with 11 years of flying, including two instructor tours, for that salary, with the promise of making the "big bucks" one day...

A promise that was undone by bankruptcy and a decade of lousy wages. I went back on Active Duty in 2006 and got a huge pay raise. In 2011, I had been on active duty for five years, built a resume and connections, and interviewed with a couple of companies. I had two job offers. Long story why I didn't take them, but they were paying nearly double my airline pay at that time.

Only recently has the airline career become worth it.

 

[fdcg27]

Sure, but with respect to real airline pilot jobs, you can only get in where you fit in.
There are some big bucks senior captains but there are also lots of guys like you who are not all that well compensated.
Maybe the majors need to step up to the plate and select people for ab initio training?
It really isn't hours, it's training, but that training has to emphasize recovery in unusual situations.
Any PPL fool can fly any airliner in good conditions, and could certainly manage a take off and maybe a landing.
It's only when things get tough that the really well qualified ATPs show their stuff.
That's what they can do and that's what we pay them for.

 

[pbm]

If I get a lawyer who doesn't know his stuff...I lose the case...I appeal.
If I get a pilot who doesn't know his stuff....I lose my life....I can't appeal...
Pay pilots what they are worth...they have up to 300 lives in their hands...

 

[DeepFriar]

Originally Posted By: fdcg27

Maybe the majors need to step up to the plate and select people for ab initio training?
It really isn't hours, it's training, but that training has to emphasize recovery in unusual situations.
Any PPL fool can fly any airliner in good conditions, and could certainly manage a take off and maybe a landing.


After seeing a couple of ab initio programs, including Lufthansa who I usually respect in all airline matters, I came away not impressed. The training is good on the surface but I question if it is deep enough and whether or not it builds maturity. The offshore airlines seem much deeper into the "pilot as systems manager" first rather than stick and rudder first. That line of reasoning leads even more quickly to automation IMO. We Americans still have a large, but aging, pool of ex-military and deeply experienced civilians that influence training and operations here. Unfortunately the economics of automation is going to be irresistable in the mid to far term with crew size reduction to one the next logical step. Stinks.

 

[Astro14]

It appears that CNN has, once again, discovered the obvious...

http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/27/news/companies/pilot-shortage-figures/index.html

Here is the ugly truth: you can train a systems manager. And that's what the industry is forced to aim for.

But Sully was far more than a systems manager.

He was a pilot.

 

[Astro14]

Originally Posted By: pbm
If I get a lawyer who doesn't know his stuff...I lose the case...I appeal.
If I get a pilot who doesn't know his stuff....I lose my life....I can't appeal...
Pay pilots what they are worth...they have up to 300 lives in their hands...


On my first flight as an airline pilot, while making the princely sum of $2,000/month (gross, not net), it was 434 lives in my brand new hands.

747-400 LAX-NRT

418 passengers
12 flight attendants
4 pilots

 

[Astro14]

Originally Posted By: fdcg27
Sure, but with respect to real airline pilot jobs, you can only get in where you fit in.
There are some big bucks senior captains but there are also lots of guys like you who are not all that well compensated.
Maybe the majors need to step up to the plate and select people for ab initio training?
It really isn't hours, it's training, but that training has to emphasize recovery in unusual situations.
Any PPL fool can fly any airliner in good conditions, and could certainly manage a take off and maybe a landing.
It's only when things get tough that the really well qualified ATPs show their stuff.
That's what they can do and that's what we pay them for.


Yeah, completely agree. It's really an issue of creating pilots, not just building time. I knew a few fighter guys, about whom we said, "Sure, he's got 1,000 hours, he just keeps repeating the first 100 over and over..." in a bit of disparagement...

There is a difference between logging time and building skills and judgement.

And, to be completely fair, I am well paid now, at the age of 54, as a 757/767 Captain.

Airline compensation just sucked for the first 19 years or so...

 

[Kuato]

Originally Posted By: Mr Nice
Quote:
Being a pilot isn't like being a lawyer or doctor, where you start at 150k+ per year right out of school.


No disrespect intended, but it's laughable you think lawyers start at $150K + per year.

My lawyer older sister makes $500 an hour ($450 if she feels sorry for client) but that's with 25+ years experience. Tons of unemployed law grads begging for an entry level job with law firm. Too many young adults had big $$$$ in their heads and went to law school expecting what you mentioned.


With any career field you start at the bottom of the pay scale and work your way up with years of experience and hands on OJT. If civilian pilots (non military) want to be a commercial airline pilot.... they'll have to pay their dues and fly for peanuts when first starting out. 20+ years they'll be in a better position than very first job.




You're correct ... I guess I'm using old data to make an example...this USED to apply to lawyers, but once there were more lawyers in law school than on the street working, that balance shifted.


Astro, thanks for lending some weight to the discussion. Spot on as always sir.

 

[Yah-Tah-Hey]

More Spartan grads in the cockpit is what we need.

 

[fdcg27]

What do you think about ab initio training for the airlines?
That is how you were trained and you found yourself making your first carrier landing after very few hours TT.
If the airlines used similarly rigorous skills and knowledge training and were as willing to wash prospects out anywhere along the way, wouldn't they end up with a cadre of really good pilots?
Of course, this would force the industry to invest money, which they are loath to do, especially when they can use the regionals as their farm teams and pilots are expected to show up at regionals with self-financed ATPs.

 

[Astro14]

Originally Posted By: HosteenJorje
More Spartan grads in the cockpit is what we need.

Would you mind explaining this?

In nearly every aviation thread, you mention Spartan grads...and I have no idea what you're talking about...it clearly means something to you, but I just don't get it...

 

[LoneRanger]

After my wife died in 2012 I gave serious thought to pulling up roots and enrolling in an ab initio "zero to hero" pilot program, looked into a joint called Gulf Stream Academy in Florida all I remember is talked to a guy named "Joe." Guaranteed first officer job on their company micro-regional island hopper Beech 19's. You more or less paid to sit in the right seat and build hours. It seemed very dreamy and like a great option for a guy who flew pleasure with a PP-ASEL and always thought of an airline job, and who was at a potential turning point in the life journey, move to Florida and get to fly back and forth to the Bahamas and etc. Then I talked with actual airpline pilots. Gulf Stream Academy and some similar outfits were not well liked, and ab initio in general seemed very frowned upon as an entry route.

I am glad I didn't do it.

Went on to learn about the main regionals and what it was like to start in them as a FO. Super low pay, crash pads (rent shared apt amongst other small regional FO's or Capts in a hub city), on call to take a flight at moment's notice, and more. At the time the more I learned of the reality of it the more the romanticism of it or escapism in my case, wore off as it being a choice for a 2nd career (was in my 40's at the time).

I have deep respect for all commercial pilots. It is a tough way to make a living even in the majors, the personal/family life can suffer. I for one, am glad I didn't try to break in to it. Also, as it turns out, my eyes have developed condition that probably would bump me out of a 1st class medical-- had detached retina last year, three surgeries four months on left eye to repair it. Its okay now but don't know if history of it is a disqualifier, just know 1st class medical is pretty stringent.

 

[Astro14]

Originally Posted By: fdcg27
What do you think about ab initio training for the airlines?
That is how you were trained and you found yourself making your first carrier landing after very few hours TT.
If the airlines used similarly rigorous skills and knowledge training and were as willing to wash prospects out anywhere along the way, wouldn't they end up with a cadre of really good pilots?
Of course, this would force the industry to invest money, which they are loath to do, especially when they can use the regionals as their farm teams and pilots are expected to show up at regionals with self-financed ATPs.


As a product of ab initio training (Latin: "From the beginning") I am very much in favor of it, in principle.

But the "how" is critical, as you suggest. If the standards are high (as they were in the military) and successful completion is not assured (we washed out so very many in the military) then you'll get a good product. But if you're not willing to support those two aspects of it, then ab initio can churn out some poor pilots and I am opposed to that method. Once a pilot has a job at a major airline, it's kind of like tenure...it's quite secure and a pilot that has "issues" from an ab initio training program will be difficult to bring up to standard, or to let go.

The industry is starting to face the reality. Jet Blue, for example, has an ab initio program that they're starting up... At the higher levels of UAL, and I suspect at DAL, AAL, and SWA, it is being examined. No decisions, but it's being looked at. They can see the applicant pool starting to shrink and our pilot need is well understood. 9-11 dramatically reduced air travel demand, and the resulting bankruptcies crushed wages. The Age 65 rule (that pilots lobbied for!) further increased supply when demand for pilots was low and lots of guys got stuck for a decade flying right seat for a regional at $25K - $30K/year with enormous debt. Supply/demand was awful for the pilots and it showed. "The lost decade" is common pilot vernacular. Nearly everyone in the industry suffered.

No one wanted to become a pilot (as previously discussed in this thread) because the job didn't pay. But that is changing and rapidly.

If you're young, and you want to fly, this is a good time - the industry is finally starting to have a supply/demand situation that values pilots. Not true for much of my career. It used to be that unions forced the issue, and leveraged the supply of pilots to drive up wages. But they don't have to any more. Chinese and Middle East Carriers are offering $300K/year for captains on their planes. Straight from the date of hire. UAL is starting guys at $82/hour, not including the 16% additional B-fund contributions that are part of a pilot's compensation, and we pay for hotel/per diem from day one. I had to find my own place to live for my first 6 weeks of training at UAL.

The USAF has come out publicly and admitted that they are thousands of pilots short. Senior USAF officials (3 star generals) have met with UAL officials (EVP level) to discuss how we can support each other. We have over 1,000 active military pilots at UAL - the USAF would like to have the guys who leave for the airlines stay in the Guard/Reserve and be able to support USAF missions as a means to mitigate their manning shortfalls. But even with an industry/military partnership - we are going to be short.

And, for the record, UAL was always incredibly supportive of my military service. They would drop trips, or let me take a long-term leave of absence, any time I needed. Often it was just a phone call and I was all set. They paid my benefits for the first 3 months while I was gone to ease the transition. They would call and ask if I needed anything, check on my return date, and scheduled me for training/flying when I was able to come back. No pressure. No onerous paperwork. Just genuine support from my Chief Pilot's Office. I spent six years on long term military leave. And about 1,000 days of dropped trips and short term leave. A LOT of time gone from 2003 through my retirement last year.

 

[Astro14]

Originally Posted By: LoneRanger
After my wife died in 2012 I gave serious thought to pulling up roots and enrolling in an ab initio "zero to hero" pilot program, looked into a joint called Gulf Stream Academy in Florida all I remember is talked to a guy named "Joe." Guaranteed first officer job on their company micro-regional island hopper Beech 19's. You more or less paid to sit in the right seat and build hours. It seemed very dreamy and like a great option for a guy who flew pleasure with a PP-ASEL and always thought of an airline job, and who was at a potential turning point in the life journey, move to Florida and get to fly back and forth to the Bahamas and etc. Then I talked with actual airpline pilots. Gulf Stream Academy and some similar outfits were not well liked, and ab initio in general seemed very frowned upon as an entry route.

I am glad I didn't do it.

Went on to learn about the main regionals and what it was like to start in them as a FO. Super low pay, crash pads (rent shared apt amongst other small regional FO's or Capts in a hub city), on call to take a flight at moment's notice, and more. At the time the more I learned of the reality of it the more the romanticism of it or escapism in my case, wore off as it being a choice for a 2nd career (was in my 40's at the time).

I have deep respect for all commercial pilots. It is a tough way to make a living even in the majors, the personal/family life can suffer. I for one, am glad I didn't try to break in to it. Also, as it turns out, my eyes have developed condition that probably would bump me out of a 1st class medical-- had detached retina last year, three surgeries four months on left eye to repair it. Its okay now but don't know if history of it is a disqualifier, just know 1st class medical is pretty stringent.



Wow! Quite a story...and I am so sorry for your loss!

It's not mentioned often, but you bring up an excellent point: the medical. We lose about 1% of our pilots to medical every year. About 30% of the guys hired by an airline WILL NOT MAKE IT TO RETIREMENT AGE because of medical. So, as you've discovered, once you have the job, it's not a guarantee that you'll be able to keep it, just from the medical.

As I think I've mentioned in another place, I was hospitalized in Colorado in December of 2015. Three weeks. Pulmonary Embolisms. Bilateral, and several. Nearly didn't make it and it took nearly a year to get my medical back...

Now, every six months (1st class medical), I see a pulmonologist, hematologist, and cardiologist who are tracking my case and then present all of their test results and opinions to the FAA for their "consideration". While I'm fine, and well-managed, there simply is no guarantee that you'll be able to stay in the cockpit.

Before anyone rushes to judgement on me or my lifestyle, I am in good shape, exercise regularly, eat reasonably, not overweight, but it turns out that I have a genetic pre-disposition for clotting known as anti-phospholipid syndrome. Great adaptation for combat, or if you're a caveman facing saber-tooth tigers, but not ideal for a job that has you sitting for hours at a time.

So, yeah, add that factor into the calculus: go $100K into debt, for low pay, and you may not be able to work in that profession because of something beyond your control medically...

 

[SEMI_287]

Originally Posted By: LoneRanger
After my wife died in 2012 I gave serious thought to pulling up roots and enrolling in an ab initio "zero to hero" pilot program, looked into a joint called Gulf Stream Academy in Florida all I remember is talked to a guy named "Joe." Guaranteed first officer job on their company micro-regional island hopper Beech 19's. You more or less paid to sit in the right seat and build hours. It seemed very dreamy and like a great option for a guy who flew pleasure with a PP-ASEL and always thought of an airline job, and who was at a potential turning point in the life journey, move to Florida and get to fly back and forth to the Bahamas and etc. Then I talked with actual airpline pilots. Gulf Stream Academy and some similar outfits were not well liked, and ab initio in general seemed very frowned upon as an entry route.

I am glad I didn't do it.

Went on to learn about the main regionals and what it was like to start in them as a FO. Super low pay, crash pads (rent shared apt amongst other small regional FO's or Capts in a hub city), on call to take a flight at moment's notice, and more. At the time the more I learned of the reality of it the more the romanticism of it or escapism in my case, wore off as it being a choice for a 2nd career (was in my 40's at the time).

I have deep respect for all commercial pilots. It is a tough way to make a living even in the majors, the personal/family life can suffer. I for one, am glad I didn't try to break in to it. Also, as it turns out, my eyes have developed condition that probably would bump me out of a 1st class medical-- had detached retina last year, three surgeries four months on left eye to repair it. Its okay now but don't know if history of it is a disqualifier, just know 1st class medical is pretty stringent.




Sorry to hear about your loss! I did the whole zero to hire thing. It SUCKED and I wouldn't have done it again, it ruined me financially for years. My wife makes MORE than I did when I was flying for Air Wisconsin. Pay at my current airline is MUCH better, and I'm almost ready for the left seat so woohoo another raise! Then again my school was scamming their students too. Be glad you didn't do it.

As astro pointed out we can be medically retired before we're old enough to actually retire. My blood pressure is on the rise and granted I am not at my ideal weight the flight doc is cool about it. Less garbage food and more working out is in order, when I can de-latch my 2 year old when I'm home.

 

[Oro_O]

I will add a little aside about evaluating flying as a career. I have done it twice in my life, in different circumstances. It is not terribly informative given some of the talent here, but it might be amusing. I have been following this thread and wondered if i might have something to say; maybe not but I think I can at least make a few people chuckle.

When I was a kid, all I wanted to do was fly. I dreamed of it, and I busted myself to get into the USNA for that purpose, and I did. My dear uncle was a USAF pilot during the really dark days of the Bomber barrons and before the fighter mafia saved the USAF. He made me promise if I went to fly in the military, I would NOT do it in the USAF (things are different now). But then my eyesight fell off and back then, it was a back seat thing or no thing. Being an egotistical 18 year old, I resigned and went to a better school for what my real academic passion was (history). But I never lost that desire, or love of the Navy in general. Heck, I think "When Thunder Rolled" by Ed Rasimus is one of the finest memoirs ever written (2nd maybe to Robin Olds, but Ed is a better writer). Probably should some day replace "Red Badge of Courage," "Helmet for my Pillow," and "Rumor of War" in the pantheon someday. But anyway...

Fast forward 13/14 or so years, and I'm successful in another career. I'm also an avid skier, and thanks to breaking an SFO-NYC February business trip on the weekend in SLC so I could grab a day or two at Alta, I ended stand-by and seated next to the toilet on the Delta flight back to NYC. Which must have been carrying all of the residual cases of the Spanish Flu on it given the traffic that toilet saw. I got the nastiest case of bronchitis, then eventually pneumonia from it (this is about 1997/8). After that was over, I then came down a few months later w/CFS from the lung infection. It interrupted my career as it took months and nearly a year really to recover. When I started to, it gave me perspective to really decide what I wanted to do w/my life and change things. Plus, I was REALLY freaked out about working at terrorist target #1 in the world, and wanted out (1 WTC). I sat down for the first time really up to that point in my life and evaluated my skills and weakness, desires, what made me happy, etc.... I tried to narrow it down to a smart career choice that "fit." My three high candidates were (pretty much in this order, but not strictly) - a)motorcycle cop, b) 747 pilot, c) primary care doctor, either GP/PCP or ER, bias towards ER.

Being a generally type A person, I set out to conquer this question. I looked into the economics of it - what it would take to re-train, how likely it would be that I could get what I wanted, what it would cost to get there, and what I would make later. I talked to people in each job about their satisfaction, prospects, etc. I went to interview people in person about this and read up as much as I could. I built spread sheets about lost income, training costs, future income, etc.

What I realized was that from where I was sitting, it was EASIER, FASTER, and CHEAPER to get a seat in an entering class at an Ivy/top 10 medical school than to ever get to sit in a 747 in Row 0. As much as I wanted it to be the answer for me, I realized it would be a path of insane frustration, cost, and possibly unobtainable. So I set it aside and 3/4 years later I was sitting in a classroom at the #1 primary care medical school in the US, and slightly regretting it wasn't practical to get the flying job I wanted.

A real indictment of both professions and how they select and reward candidates IMO.

 

[HerrStig]

Originally Posted By: Or
I will add a little aside about evaluating flying as a career. I have done it twice in my life, in different circumstances. It is not terribly informative given some of the talent here, but it might be amusing. I have been following this thread and wondered if i might have something to say; maybe not but I think I can at least make a few people chuckle.

When I was a kid, all I wanted to do was fly. I dreamed of it, and I busted myself to get into the USNA for that purpose, and I did. My dear uncle was a USAF pilot during the really dark days of the Bomber barrons and before the fighter mafia saved the USAF. He made me promise if I went to fly in the military, I would NOT do it in the USAF (things are different now). But then my eyesight fell off and back then, it was a back seat thing or no thing. Being an egotistical 18 year old, I resigned and went to a better school for what my real academic passion was (history). But I never lost that desire, or love of the Navy in general. Heck, I think "When Thunder Rolled" by Ed Rasimus is one of the finest memoirs ever written (2nd maybe to Robin Olds, but Ed is a better writer). Probably should some day replace "Red Badge of Courage," "Helmet for my Pillow," and "Rumor of War" in the pantheon someday. But anyway...

Fast forward 13/14 or so years, and I'm successful in another career. I'm also an avid skier, and thanks to breaking an SFO-NYC February business trip on the weekend in SLC so I could grab a day or two at Alta, I ended stand-by and seated next to the toilet on the Delta flight back to NYC. Which must have been carrying all of the residual cases of the Spanish Flu on it given the traffic that toilet saw. I got the nastiest case of bronchitis, then eventually pneumonia from it (this is about 1997/8). After that was over, I then came down a few months later w/CFS from the lung infection. It interrupted my career as it took months and nearly a year really to recover. When I started to, it gave me perspective to really decide what I wanted to do w/my life and change things. Plus, I was REALLY freaked out about working at terrorist target #1 in the world, and wanted out (1 WTC). I sat down for the first time really up to that point in my life and evaluated my skills and weakness, desires, what made me happy, etc.... I tried to narrow it down to a smart career choice that "fit." My three high candidates were (pretty much in this order, but not strictly) - a)motorcycle cop, b) 747 pilot, c) primary care doctor, either GP/PCP or ER, bias towards ER.

Being a generally type A person, I set out to conquer this question. I looked into the economics of it - what it would take to re-train, how likely it would be that I could get what I wanted, what it would cost to get there, and what I would make later. I talked to people in each job about their satisfaction, prospects, etc. I went to interview people in person about this and read up as much as I could. I built spread sheets about lost income, training costs, future income, etc.

What I realized was that from where I was sitting, it was EASIER, FASTER, and CHEAPER to get a seat in an entering class at an Ivy/top 10 medical school than to ever get to sit in a 747 in Row 0. As much as I wanted it to be the answer for me, I realized it would be a path of insane frustration, cost, and possibly unobtainable. So I set it aside and 3/4 years later I was sitting in a classroom at the #1 primary care medical school in the US, and slightly regretting it wasn't practical to get the flying job I wanted.

A real indictment of both professions and how they select and reward candidates IMO.
The executive officer of the Marine company in Rumor of War (Feeley) later went to law school and was a good friend. When the author, and CO of the unit, Caputo, came to town to hump one of his books the silly bleep reporters would flock around and ask him silly questions..Caputo never let on that his second in command lived in "town". My favorite books of the time are "Chicken Hawk" by Bob Mason, and "Mavrick" by Denis Marvison. Both about the helicopter war in Vietnam.

 

[fdcg27]

What you're really telling us is that it's easier for a bright guy to become a physician than it is for him to get into the left seat of an airliner that pays good money.
I guess that means that more of the best and brightest aspire to that left seat than they do to the ER.
No surprise there.

 

[Astro14]

Business Week has captured some of what I've been saying about the USAF...

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-air-force-is-getting-creative-to-tackle-its-pilot-shortage-2017-7