A change in tires, air pressure in tires, weight in car (luggage) anything can effect the mileage. I also am very skeptical of economy gains from a 5w-20 oil when coming down from the same brand ( Mobil 1) 5w30. I'm also glad the new on board computers are much more accurate with mileage, I have never had one anywhere close to correct actual fuel mileage. By the way I'm new sure how much the wear on your tires if they were the same tires changing the total diameter would impact your actual fuel mileage... I would assume it would be close if not greater than going from a 5w30 to a 5w-20. Another biggy is the accuracy of the tank, temperature when filled, how soon you called it filled so many variables we have to figure in when contemplating fuel economy !!
I do hope it was the oil, however in all my years of driving, oil changing, trying different oils, weights etc I have never found an oil to consecutively improve my fuel economy enough to show it on paper when calculated by hand... for 3 tanks, my mileage is also always up, and down from tank to tank
On edit- even down to if you used the defroster or not, rear drains alternator, front turns on a/c