How often to sell stocks?

[Mr Nice]

Cujet,

What did you invest in to loose so much money and not recoup after this Bull Run for the last 10 years ?



Are any older folks investing in Bonds ?
If so, which ones ?

 

[JeffKeryk]

I have 2 scenarios, well 3 actually. Schwab managed preferred customer account, a boatload of NVLS/LRCX golden handcuffs where i worked for 22 years and an annuity at Fidelity.
So Schwab gives advice and tries to balance the portfolio.
I have put at least 20% (mostly much more) of my wages into investments over years in addition to paying off my home.
I have been very lucky.

 

[LazyDog]

I used to do some trades back when I was interested in the market. I only bought stocks that had a nice trading band or channel.

Set up your buy point close to lower end and sell it when it gets closer to the upper end. The win's and losses where not enough to maintain interest plus you had all the paper work from IRS stuff.

I still have some friend that do some of this trades but in Roth's IRS to avoid the paper work nightmare, for me not worth it!!!

 

[ecotourist]

I was saved from the big tech stock market crash in 2008 by a newspaper article. It showed an attractive woman sitting on a unicycle beside her new Jaguar. According to her, making money on tech stocks was easy. You bought an IPO (an Initial Purchase Offer), waited for it to double in price and then sold it. You then bought another IPO, and so on. I concluded that if it was that easy I wanted nothing to do with it. And a few weeks later the tech stock market crashed. I wonder if she still has the Jag.

There are however a few secrets to making serious money in the stock market. For almost everyone, the best approach is to buy a low cost broad market ETF and then leave it alone for 30 or 40 years. There is a lot you can't control. Stocks go up and stocks go down and often for no apparent reason. But you can control yourself (by not selling out whenever the market goes down), and you can control costs (by buying a low cost ETF and then leaving it alone to minimize taxes). Other than that "it's time in the market, not timing the market" that will be your friend.

That's mostly what I do. I also have a significant percentage in bonds (which tend to go up in value whenever the market goes down - preserving your sanity) and a handful of blue chip stocks for a bit of fun. I've done well on them too, though "not every day".

 

[Cujet]

Originally Posted by Mr Nice
Cujet,

What did you invest in to loose so much money and not recoup after this Bull Run for the last 10 years ?



Are any older folks investing in Bonds ?
If so, which ones ?



My IRA was invested by Ameriprise in 4 differing funds. One contained a good bit of GM stock, and as we all know, GM stock became worthless. Had a good bit of GE stock too. Nearing the 2020's my GE stock is worth about 1/4 of what I paid for it over the decade of the 2000's. It never recovered. Adjusted for inflation, my GE stock is worth 1/6th of what I've invested.

"this won't happen to me" is a common theme. "my broker is good" is another common theme.

The bottom line is that I've made money in things provided by my company. I've lost money on some personal investments.

 

[Wolf359]

Originally Posted by Cujet
Originally Posted by Mr Nice
Cujet,

What did you invest in to loose so much money and not recoup after this Bull Run for the last 10 years ?



Are any older folks investing in Bonds ?
If so, which ones ?



My IRA was invested by Ameriprise in 4 differing funds. One contained a good bit of GM stock, and as we all know, GM stock became worthless. Had a good bit of GE stock too. Nearing the 2020's my GE stock is worth about 1/4 of what I paid for it over the decade of the 2000's. It never recovered. Adjusted for inflation, my GE stock is worth 1/6th of what I've invested.

"this won't happen to me" is a common theme. "my broker is good" is another common theme.

The bottom line is that I've made money in things provided by my company. I've lost money on some personal investments.


I learned that lesson decades ago. Gave up on individual stocks and just bought the S&P 500. It's done very well the last couple decades even including a few crashes. Basically 75% of the managed funds out there can't beat the S&P 500 and of those that do, they can't do it for many years in a row. There are a very few funds that are able to beat it though.

 

[csandste]

Originally Posted by Cujet
Originally Posted by Mr Nice
Cujet,

What did you invest in to loose so much money and not recoup after this Bull Run for the last 10 years ?



Are any older folks investing in Bonds ?
If so, which ones ?



My IRA was invested by Ameriprise in 4 differing funds. One contained a good bit of GM stock, and as we all know, GM stock became worthless. Had a good bit of GE stock too. Nearing the 2020's my GE stock is worth about 1/4 of what I paid for it over the decade of the 2000's. It never recovered. Adjusted for inflation, my GE stock is worth 1/6th of what I've invested.

"this won't happen to me" is a common theme. "my broker is good" is another common theme.

The bottom line is that I've made money in things provided by my company. I've lost money on some personal investments.


Well... funny you should say Ameriprise. My second deceased wife (as opposed to my first deceased wife), had a heart of gold and adopted a kid that was taken out of the home at age two. Four boys, all had FAS and (I think) were crack babies. Kept in contact with two of the brothers (same problems) who were being raised by their grandma. Kid came home one night and announced that he was going to be an Ameriprise financial advisor as two of his brothers had already signed up. I dissuaded him. Last I heard the brothers were serving prison sentences, hope they're not selling Ameriprise products to their fellow convicts.

My present widowed girlfriend got into the insurance business with her husband, who was an old style whole life insurance salesman. She didn't understand investing (nor did he apparently) and so she got in with an insurance based "financial adviser" who churned her in and out of a number of horrible mutual funds plus various hideous variable annuity products which he also churned. He even had her IRA's in variable annuities. Have no idea how much money he got from her, but it was well into six figures. Another very well known financial-insurance fund (which since it's not central to the story (Ameriprise was mentioned) I won't repeat here.

Having a friendly local contact was important to her so I got all of her stuff into Schwab, since they have a neighborhood office. All that stuff is in two basis point index funds and she's doing much better. He couldn't get rid of all annuities without tax consequences so she was set up with some low cost (not variable) annuity products. He himself had never sold one annuity product (why would he?) so he had to call San Francisco to find out about them.

Although most of my investments are still Vanguard index based, all have been moved over to Schwab. for holding purposes, and the new Schwab products I have purchased are even CHEAPER than Vanguard. That's the secret: buy Vanguard, Schwab, Blackrock or Fidelity index funds or ETF's and have don't have costs. Or, buy Ameriprise (or insert fifty other names here) products SOLD TO YOU BY A SALESMAN-- WHO FOR ALL I KNOW COULD BE MY STEP NEPHEWS-- and have all your money churned away.

As for your GM and GE stock--even though you got it through an Ameriprise fund that was heavily weighted. Proof that you can lose money on even the bluest of blue chip names from eighty years ago-- which is why I don't like to buy individual stocks.

 

[The motor guy]

Originally Posted by Astro14
One other thought: if you really think that you could get "$50-75 a day" from $4,000 in your button clicking portfolio, you're living an absolute fantasy.

$50 return on a $4,000 investment is a 1.25% return.

Per DAY.

Compounded over a year, that's roughly a 2,200% rate of return. Reinvested, your $4,000 would be nearing $100,000 at the end of the year.

Do you really think you can do that?

"Jjust by clicking a few buttons"?

Well, do it, then.

And in a year or two, when you're a multimillionaire, tell us how.

And then, keep it up. You'll be a billionaire two years after that...asking us what oil to put in a Gulfstream 650.

All because you were able to consistently get a 1.25% daily return....


No but I could easily do $25,000/year. I have a lot more than $4000 in the stock market.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Originally Posted by Wolf359

Basically 75% of the managed funds out there can't beat the S&P 500 and of those that do, they can't do it for many years in a row. There are a very few funds that are able to beat it though.


Exactly. This is sound advice. Overtime the S&P outperforms 80% of the market.

 

[Wolf359]

Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
Originally Posted by Wolf359

Basically 75% of the managed funds out there can't beat the S&P 500 and of those that do, they can't do it for many years in a row. There are a very few funds that are able to beat it though.


Exactly. This is sound advice. Overtime the S&P outperforms 80% of the market.


Ok, I'll throw out one fund, Fidelity Contrafund. Trailed S&P 500 for last year, but beat S&P in the 3/5 and 10 year but only by a little bit, 16.22 in the 10 year vs 15.91 on the S&P 500.

 

[Warstud]

I believe in Technical Analysis....I bought Oil (UCO) at the beginning of 2019 and are up 40% now. It is a 2X fund BTW.

 

[Vuflanovsky]

Originally Posted by Wolf359
Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
Originally Posted by Wolf359

Basically 75% of the managed funds out there can't beat the S&P 500 and of those that do, they can't do it for many years in a row. There are a very few funds that are able to beat it though.


Exactly. This is sound advice. Overtime the S&P outperforms 80% of the market.


Ok, I'll throw out one fund, Fidelity Contrafund. Trailed S&P 500 for last year, but beat S&P in the 3/5 and 10 year but only by a little bit, 16.22 in the 10 year vs 15.91 on the S&P 500.


The "star manager" concept hasn't exactly died if there are those that do very well against the S&P and related indexes for periods of time. Will Danoff's name at Contrafund is often mentioned. I have T. Rowe Price New Horizons in an IRA that's done exceedingly well in the last ten years in no small part because the manager is a great stock picker and strategist. The fund's beaten the comparable Lipper and Russell indexes handily at the 1,3,5,and 10 year marks and beaten the S&P in the same 1,3,5, and 10 year categories. The manager's now left TRP unexpectedly ( a relatively rare event ) and taken his analyst team with him, LOL. If things go south, there's an argument for index / ETF funds ( which I also have ) but I've reaped the benefit for more than a decade along with PRWCX in that same IRA where you might consider another "star manager" situation exists.

 

[ecotourist]

Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
Originally Posted by Wolf359

Basically 75% of the managed funds out there can't beat the S&P 500 and of those that do, they can't do it for many years in a row. There are a very few funds that are able to beat it though.


Exactly. This is sound advice. Overtime the S&P outperforms 80% of the market.

This is good advice. It's what a smart investor will do.

If you look back in time you will find a few funds that have beaten a broad index (like the S&P 500). Problem is (with a very few exceptions) outperformance doesn't last. Were the fund managers genius or just lucky? It'll take 20 years to find out.

Or you could just buy the index.

 

[javacontour]

Originally Posted by Wolf359
Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
Originally Posted by Wolf359

Basically 75% of the managed funds out there can't beat the S&P 500 and of those that do, they can't do it for many years in a row. There are a very few funds that are able to beat it though.


Exactly. This is sound advice. Overtime the S&P outperforms 80% of the market.


Ok, I'll throw out one fund, Fidelity Contrafund. Trailed S&P 500 for last year, but beat S&P in the 3/5 and 10 year but only by a little bit, 16.22 in the 10 year vs 15.91 on the S&P 500.


How is it after fees? (And I should know since I have some ContraFund in my 401(k)

I suspect, after the fees, it's pretty close to the same.

But I do agree, as I contribute to it every payday, that the ContraFund is an attractive offering.

But I do have most of it in the S&P 500.

To someone else mentioning winning big on Boeing but missing out on losing on SUNW and others. I manged to lose on SUNW even getting it through the ESPP as an employee.

I wrote off and carried over losses for several years in the mid 2000s

 

[Sam_Julier]

I can't remember the last time I sold a stock but I'll bet it's more than 20 years ago. We own companies like W.P. Carey, Wells Fargo, Exxon, Union Pacific etc. They have served my family well. If one of our stocks drops I buy more of it. Dividends are automatically reinvested. The balance of our assets are in Vanguard Index funds.

I'm absolutely certain I do not have the ability to time the market. I'm totally comfortable earning the total market rate of return as long as it is at an uber low cost. My favorite books on investing are by Benjamin Graham, David Swensen, John Bogle and Charlie Ellis.

Sam

 

[Wolf359]

Originally Posted by javacontour
Originally Posted by Wolf359
Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
Originally Posted by Wolf359

Basically 75% of the managed funds out there can't beat the S&P 500 and of those that do, they can't do it for many years in a row. There are a very few funds that are able to beat it though.


Exactly. This is sound advice. Overtime the S&P outperforms 80% of the market.


Ok, I'll throw out one fund, Fidelity Contrafund. Trailed S&P 500 for last year, but beat S&P in the 3/5 and 10 year but only by a little bit, 16.22 in the 10 year vs 15.91 on the S&P 500.


How is it after fees? (And I should know since I have some ContraFund in my 401(k)

I suspect, after the fees, it's pretty close to the same.

But I do agree, as I contribute to it every payday, that the ContraFund is an attractive offering.

But I do have most of it in the S&P 500.

To someone else mentioning winning big on Boeing but missing out on losing on SUNW and others. I manged to lose on SUNW even getting it through the ESPP as an employee.

I wrote off and carried over losses for several years in the mid 2000s


I think I was just looking at the performance numbers and those include the fees. Fidelity has their own index fund too and surprisingly it has lower fees than the Vanguard index 500 Admirial share. Regular Vanguard index 500 is .14, the Admiral is .04 and Fidelity is .014. Basically 1/10 the fee that regular Vanguard Index 500 charges. Contrafund has .82 for an expense ratio. I believe performance numbers are calculated after the expense ratio.

I basically have most of my funds in Index 500, I do try a few others here and there like Contrafund. Used to try and do more, but then the net result was that they would inevitably trail the S&P 500 so I slowly moved over 50% over to an index 500 fund.

 

[The motor guy]

Originally Posted by Sam_Julier
I can't remember the last time I sold a stock but I'll bet it's more than 20 years ago. We own companies like W.P. Carey, Wells Fargo, Exxon, Union Pacific etc. They have served my family well. If one of our stocks drops I buy more of it. Dividends are automatically reinvested. The balance of our assets are in Vanguard Index funds.

I'm absolutely certain I do not have the ability to time the market. I'm totally comfortable earning the total market rate of return as long as it is at an uber low cost. My favorite books on investing are by Benjamin Graham, David Swensen, John Bogle and Charlie Ellis.

Sam


Union Pacific was $10/share 20 years ago. It's $165 now

 

[Sam_Julier]

Originally Posted by motor_oil_madman
Originally Posted by Sam_Julier
I can't remember the last time I sold a stock but I'll bet it's more than 20 years ago. We own companies like W.P. Carey, Wells Fargo, Exxon, Union Pacific etc. They have served my family well. If one of our stocks drops I buy more of it. Dividends are automatically reinvested. The balance of our assets are in Vanguard Index funds.

I'm absolutely certain I do not have the ability to time the market. I'm totally comfortable earning the total market rate of return as long as it is at an uber low cost. My favorite books on investing are by Benjamin Graham, David Swensen, John Bogle and Charlie Ellis.

Sam


Union Pacific was $10/share 20 years ago. It's $165 now


You are correct. I would add that on January 25, 2016 it was $72.00/share. So if you had bought some shares 6 months on either side of this date you'd have a nice return and a lower cost basis. As Warren Buffett would say: "Be greedy when people are fearful and be fearful when people are greedy."

Sam

 

[PandaBear]

Depends. I only invest in things I know about, and the rest go into Vanguard or pay down my mortgage.

I also don't invest based on the finance side of things much (others will always be better than me in that dept), only with industrial knowledge, and buy when it looks promising, sell when everyone and their moms are talking about it.

 

[stockrex]

Originally Posted by Cujet
An "especially goofy/funny" high-school friend of mine, with no formal higher education, became rich as a day trader. He jumped into real world NYC Wall Street stuff in 1981 and within short order, he was a millionaire.

I've invested conservatively over my 35 year career, and one account, my IRA, is currently valued at less than I've deposited. It took hard hits during the various crashes we've had. Never to fully recover. I would have been better off putting the IRA money under the mattress.

However, other accounts have done well and those are ahead.

I do not buy and sell.


This, investing is like the seasons,
Costco has spring potting soil out when it is 22F and 3 ft of snow outside, cuz spring is coming, it is inevitable.

I don't understand most more complicated business and other instruments, but good ol BRK or Google is a good bet,
yes, it is a bet.
Most fund will put it in an indexed instrument.

Cujet, I am sorry, in this game you need to "call it" and pull out. Move to stock to all Cash, sounds crazy but do it a few times over a decade and you will be in positive territory.

Take GE stock example, I had a sizable amount of GE, it dropped from $3x to $18 and I posted here wt...drop, Mr Nice pointed out it is going to the pitts, I got out right then at $18 [thanks!]