How is the Winter Forecast looking for your region?
- Thread starter buster
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Winter is expected to be cooler and wetter than normal in the Bay Area. The coldest daytime temperatures are expected throughout December and January. The average daytime temperature will hover around 57°F. We may see freezing temperatures a couple of times. The ocean should be between 53 and 57°F or a little higher thanks to El Niño.. Stormy weather from January into March. Skiing should be good in the Sierra.
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Hermann
Site Donor 2023
Last year I had no snows that required shoveling. My SW facing driveway insures that Sol can do his job.
At KCI airport the official total was 9 inches total last year. They are predicting about the same for this winter.
At KCI airport the official total was 9 inches total last year. They are predicting about the same for this winter.
4" of snow last night, mostly gone now. Benefit is we're not sending forest fire smoke to Florida any longer. We had an average amount of snow last year which is about 100". It mostly stays once it falls, due to cold winters.
Looking at our snow fall chart, last 10 years have been higher average snow fall than the 10 years before.
And equivalent to the 70's, 80s.
Looking at our snow fall chart, last 10 years have been higher average snow fall than the 10 years before.
And equivalent to the 70's, 80s.
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For you northern dwellers I'll trade you a Cat 2 hurricane for a couple of 10" blizzards.
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Since 2020 we haven't had much snow in our area. It gets cold,but snow totals are not worth mentioning. I bought a Ego 56v 2-stage snow blower three years ago and have only used maybe 3 times 
This year's forecast is supposed to be warmer so most likely the snow blower will be spending more time with the storage cover on it again
This year's forecast is supposed to be warmer so most likely the snow blower will be spending more time with the storage cover on it again
We had the same right before Christmas. We had -10F on 12/23 with snow over a nice base of ice. We headed north to see family on Christmas Eve and it was up to around 10F that day.
That was the worst we saw last winter.
This winter may be warmer than average, or not. We may have higher than average precipitation, or we may not.
During the '22-'23 winter we did see some good rainstorms that would have been Armageddon level snow events had the temperature been ten degrees colder.
"Winter" is a mythical thing I hear about and read about, but not totally sure it really exists. Kinda like bigfoot and maybe hockey.
I don't pay much attention to their predictions anymore. They have said its going to be a bad winter about every year for awhile now and I don't think we have actually had a bad one in close to 10 years. We might get a few days of actual bad weather but it never last.
Down here we get temps in high 30’s at night, nice and sunny breezy weather in the daytime.
A/C still running 24/7 here.
The trick is to put ice melt windshield fluid in a spray bottle.
Melts it right off.
Sometimes I leave a small ceramic space heater in the car on a timer. Melts the windows and is nice and cozy for those early mornings.
The GFS computer model is between 80-85 percent accurate at the 6-10 day time frame with the long wave jetstream pattern.
Around 2 weeks the GFS is 50 percent accurate.
That’s the long wave pattern… Which is helpful to a good degree. However… the smaller details like upper level vorticity in the jetstream can cause quite a change in perceived and sensible weather to us all. Take for example a strong arctic front passes southeast and pushes off the Atlantic coastline … Then a upper level vorticity is dropping aouthward into the Gulf of Mexico about the same time… A surface low pressure starts to form southeast of that upper level vorticity and undergo cyclogenesis south of say Mobile Alabama… That developing low pressure moves northeast along the dragging arctic front and a new area of low pressure starts to form off the coast of NC southeast of Wilmington NC… That system rapidly intensifies as the upper level vorticity catches up with the developing coastal low pressure over the Gulf Stream.. Then it is on from there… All up and down the east coast.
That say versus a strong arctic front passes off the Atlantic coastline and there are no upper level systems in the polar jetstream… The result is all quiet and very cold with broad sunshine everywhere along and east of the Mississippi.
Huge, huge difference there in sensible weather along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic coastline and the Appalachian mountains and all the big cities along interstate 95.
I don’t pay much mind to 3-4 month forecasts.
I remember the winter of 2009-2010 and they were saying warm, lot of rain in the mid Atlantic region…
Well the NAO aka the North Atlantic Oscillation turned negative in early December 2009 and the PNA aka Pacific North American pattern turned positive at that same time frame… And then a very strong winter storm hit around December 18-20th…
And that pattern continued most of the time for the next 4 months… Culminating in 2 massive snowstorms hitting mid Atlantic in February 2010. With as much as 66 inches of snow being on the ground just west and south of Baltimore Maryland…
My area had the snowiest winter since 2002-03.
The forecast was right about the active southern jetstream… But was way off in the NAO and PNA patterns… Therefore leading to a cold, active and snowy 2009-2010 winter season.
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We've had snow going on 2 months. September to May is winter.
GON
$100 Site Donor 2024
Been doing the ice melt spray for a few years and it does work on the outside....but some days I need to wait forever for the inside to defog the inside of the windshield.
Hope it rains this season.
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