Bad News For Rivian

One of the issues that none of the Domestic and European EV makers like to talk about is how fast and how much cheaper China is cranking out EVs and ICE vehicles.

China has already flooded Europe with both, and it's a matter of time until they get a foothold in the US market.

And China is also a major EV battery manufacturer. From a business perspective, things aren't working out for US manufacturers as well as they hoped. Never mind that we don't have the infrastructure and resources to support the EV Fantasy.

I think that in the end EVs will stick around, but mass adoption will never happen.
And, China is building multiple coal plants every single week in order to have a grid that could support it. It’s hardly a “green” solution, but it certainly does offer near-complete control of all vehicles dependent on the charging system…
 
The mass adoption of personal computers and the internet was driven by tangible benefits and technological synergies. Personal computers not only facilitated connectivity but also propelled the growth of the internet as commodity PC technology was integrated into servers. AMD's development of x86-64 and its support for 64-bit Linux and Microsoft's 64-bit Windows played crucial roles, while Intel, heavily invested in the less successful Itanium technology, appeared to obstruct AMD's progress.

However, the main hurdle for BEVs lies not in the 'EV' (Electric Vehicle) part, but in the 'B' (Battery) aspect. The challenges of battery weight, charging times, and the reliance on non-renewable energy sources must be addressed before widespread adoption is feasible. This situation differs markedly from the rapid acceptance of technologies such as personal computers, the internet, or smartphones, which offered immediate, substantial benefits. For example, smartphones effectively put a powerful computer in every pocket, appealing to mass consumer desires for accessibility and connectivity.

In contrast, expecting quick and broad acceptance of BEVs—considering current limitations like lengthy charging times and limited range, especially under load like towing—is unrealistic. This scenario can be likened to a hypothetical mandate from the 1960s requiring everyone to use mainframe computers for everyday transactions like banking or shopping, a proposition that would have been as impractical then as certain expectations around BEVs are today.
You said it yourself, but keep in mind we're continuously getting more renewables and battery technology is improving. Whether that crossover in tech happens in 5 years, 25 years, or 50 years has yet to be seen. We're definitely on a path to make that happen.

The one that is odd to me is the utter distain for the idea from some people. I know everything is political these days, but it seems at one time more people were of the mindset of seeing where technology goes. Nowadays we're lamenting the death of loved pieces of transportation. The auto buyer has always been slow to accept changes. Heck even I struggle accepting redesigns at times. These days it's something about a V8 no longer being available and that saying "there's no replacement for displacement" really isn't true at all.
 
Mass adoption will never happen? HAHAHAHA!! Unfortunately, I'm old enough to remember the same thing being said about personal computers ("nobody will be able to afford these"), the internet ("What would the average person need or use this for?"), and buying groceries online and having them delivered to your house ("Nobody is going to buy food over the internet").

I would urge you to print out a copy of that "will never happen" statement and shove it in a desk drawer, and pull it back out and read it about 10-15 years from now.

I'm neither for nor against electric vehicles, probably wouldnt work too well with my current situation but life, and the world, changes. I think these almost daily curmudgeonly anti-electric vehicle threads here are going to look quite foolish in a decade or so. Maybe longer, this isnt going to happen fast. But.......it IS going to happen.
The difference between all of your examples and EVs is that nobody FORCED the consumer to buy computers, or internet access, or cell phones. That means they became ubiquitous because people WANTED those items due to their convenience factor.

At nearly every turn, there is a clear INconvenience when expecting the average rural vehicle owner to adopt an EV. Nobody gets rid of a perfectly usable vehicle in order to buy one with significant problems to their routines, along with being, on average, more than 2X expensive.
 
The difference between all of your examples and EVs is that nobody FORCED the consumer to buy computers, or internet access, or cell phones. That means they became ubiquitous because people WANTED those items due to their convenience factor.

At nearly every turn, there is a clear INconvenience when expecting the average rural vehicle owner to adopt an EV. Nobody gets rid of a perfectly usable vehicle in order to buy one with significant problems to their routines, along with being, on average, more than 2X expensive.
No one has forced anyone to buy an EV. You definitely aren't being forced to sell your current vehicle. Why does this phrase still persist?
 
The one that is odd to me is the utter distain for the idea from some people. I know everything is political these days, but it seems at one time more people were of the mindset of seeing where technology goes. Nowadays we're lamenting the death of loved pieces of transportation. The auto buyer has always been slow to accept changes. Heck even I struggle accepting redesigns at times. These days it's something about a V8 no longer being available and that saying "there's no replacement for displacement" really isn't true at all.
People resist being forced to change. If there are positives (“WIIFM??”) they are more likely. Give them some input into the change process, and most people can’t wait to get on that change wagon.
 
People resist being forced to change. If there are positives (“WIIFM??”) they are more likely. Give them some input into the change process, and most people can’t wait to get on that change wagon.
No one is being forced to do anything. CAFE standards are tightening as they always have and EVs are a way of meeting this requirement while still offering internal combustion powered vehicles.
 
Mass adoption will never happen? HAHAHAHA!! Unfortunately, I'm old enough to remember the same thing being said about personal computers ("nobody will be able to afford these"), the internet ("What would the average person need or use this for?"), and buying groceries online and having them delivered to your house ("Nobody is going to buy food over the internet").

I would urge you to print out a copy of that "will never happen" statement and shove it in a desk drawer, and pull it back out and read it about 10-15 years from now.

I'm neither for nor against electric vehicles, probably wouldnt work too well with my current situation but life, and the world, changes. I think these almost daily curmudgeonly anti-electric vehicle threads here are going to look quite foolish in a decade or so. Maybe longer, this isnt going to happen fast. But.......it IS going to happen.
Those things you have mentioned were the first of their kind: something completely new so how useful they would be to the average person wasn't clear. Vehicles are different. A car is a car, whether powered by liquid fuel or a battery. It is used for the same things: commuting to work, taking the kids to school, going to the store, visiting grandma.
 
Mass adoption will never happen? HAHAHAHA!! Unfortunately, I'm old enough to remember the same thing being said about personal computers ("nobody will be able to afford these"), the internet ("What would the average person need or use this for?"), and buying groceries online and having them delivered to your house ("Nobody is going to buy food over the internet").

I would urge you to print out a copy of that "will never happen" statement and shove it in a desk drawer, and pull it back out and read it about 10-15 years from now.

I'm neither for nor against electric vehicles, probably wouldnt work too well with my current situation but life, and the world, changes. I think these almost daily curmudgeonly anti-electric vehicle threads here are going to look quite foolish in a decade or so. Maybe longer, this isnt going to happen fast. But.......it IS going to happen.
Those arguments are a leaky as 50 year old toilet. Implementing the internet was no big deal once the technology was there to use it, almost every house and apartment had a phone like (remember dial up modems), DSL and fiber was just innovation of existing infrastructure. Once the internet came into play sales of pc's took off because there were some real use for these machines for the average person.

No one needs an EV, NO ONE, at best it is an alternative and for many people a poor one. You cant drive the car up to the 5th floor and plug it in or run a 100ft 240V electrical cord down the front of the house. Apartment dwellers in big cities are very likely to face that very situation, despite what some of these guys from CA say you cannot mandate old building with no underground parking to install charging stations and no one is putting a charger on the street in a parking spot.
You guys need to take the rose colored glasses off and look at the realities, for the majority of people this is not a utopia we live in.

When they have a car priced competitively with a gas car or hybrid, can go 500 miles on a charge minimum in 20 min or less, has a lifetime warranty on the battery and you guarantee my electric rate is under 20c KwH and there are 4 times as many charging stations as gas stations to prevent long waiting lines because of the extended times over filling a gas car then I may well be a customer if I live that long. Otherwise they can shove the EV where the sun doesnt shine sideways.
 
Mass adoption will never happen? HAHAHAHA!! Unfortunately, I'm old enough to remember the same thing being said about personal computers ("nobody will be able to afford these"), the internet ("What would the average person need or use this for?"), and buying groceries online and having them delivered to your house ("Nobody is going to buy food over the internet").

I would urge you to print out a copy of that "will never happen" statement and shove it in a desk drawer, and pull it back out and read it about 10-15 years from now.

I'm neither for nor against electric vehicles, probably wouldnt work too well with my current situation but life, and the world, changes. I think these almost daily curmudgeonly anti-electric vehicle threads here are going to look quite foolish in a decade or so. Maybe longer, this isnt going to happen fast. But.......it IS going to happen.

When I see threads like this it is my cue to start buying RIVN stock lol
 
How get more people to buy? Just make recharging as fast or nearly as fast as filling a gas car. Like maybe 5 minutes tops. You might need a 5,000 volt system, but the engineers can figure that out in due time.
maybe but these grids can't sustain the juice they need. I think with any battery, the more you recharge it as well as the faster it gets charged the more wear and tear will happen.
 
No one is being forced to do anything. CAFE standards are tightening as they always have and EVs are a way of meeting this requirement while still offering internal combustion powered vehicles.
All arbitrarily arrived at, Without real data to back up the hysteria. But I completely support catalytic converters because they make exhaust less noxious.
When I see threads like this it is my cue to start buying RIVN stock lol
You mean time to short it? 🤣
 
All arbitrarily arrived at, Without real data to back up the hysteria. But I completely support catalytic converters because they make exhaust less noxious.
It's not just about emissions standards. It's to try and use less resources while we continue to add more and more cars to the road. If anything CAFE has little to nothing to do with emissions. All that number means is that they want a single gallon of fuel to go further than it used to.
 
No one is being forced to do anything. CAFE standards are tightening as they always have and EVs are a way of meeting this requirement while still offering internal combustion powered vehicles.
Except states and countries/blocs are literally banning new ICE vehicles. No, you're not forced to buy an EV (note - even hybrids are coming under the ban rule as not being ZEV), you simply have to deal without owning a car if you don't want an EV. "Oh, oh, but you're still allowed to buy a used ICE vehicle!" In a limited used vehicle market under increasingly-draconian emissions laws limiting where you're even allowed to drive them without legalized government extortion (like in London, and soon enough, more of the UK), for now, sure.

Arguing that no one is forcing EV sales to replace ICE is academically dishonest, at best.




 
maybe but these grids can't sustain the juice they need. I think with any battery, the more you recharge it as well as the faster it gets charged the more wear and tear will happen.
It's heat more than speed, but speed creates heat and it takes energy to cool it. There are trade offs.
 
Those arguments are a leaky as 50 year old toilet. Implementing the internet was no big deal once the technology was there to use it, almost every house and apartment had a phone like (remember dial up modems), DSL and fiber was just innovation of existing infrastructure. Once the internet came into play sales of pc's took off because there were some real use for these machines for the average person.

No one needs an EV, NO ONE, at best it is an alternative and for many people a poor one. You cant drive the car up to the 5th floor and plug it in or run a 100ft 240V electrical cord down the front of the house. Apartment dwellers in big cities are very likely to face that very situation, despite what some of these guys from CA say you cannot mandate old building with no underground parking to install charging stations and no one is putting a charger on the street in a parking spot.
You guys need to take the rose colored glasses off and look at the realities, for the majority of people this is not a utopia we live in.

When they have a car priced competitively with a gas car or hybrid, can go 500 miles on a charge minimum in 20 min or less, has a lifetime warranty on the battery and you guarantee my electric rate is under 20c KwH and there are 4 times as many charging stations as gas stations to prevent long waiting lines because of the extended times over filling a gas car then I may well be a customer if I live that long. Otherwise they can shove the EV where the sun doesnt shine sideways.
Dunno, electricity is just about everywhere I go.
Sure no one needs an EV, or a Porsche, Bro Dozer, Caddy, MBZ, you name it. Camrys make more sense than BMWs, but aren't half the fun.

I have said a bazillion times, an EV or whatever car depends on your use case. Most people do not drive 500 miles per day. I think the average is under 40 miles per day. Now recent numbers are likely skewed by the pandemic when people weren't driving as much...

I've owned an EV for over 5 years. Ownership is not what I thought; fueling is far more convenient that my gas vehicles. There is nothing like starting every day with a full tank. People charge at Wally World, work and many many shopping centers. Again, I understand I live in a place that is tech heavy; we love this stuff. When I go 90 miles north to our Petaluma house, there is only 1 Supercharger location in the immediate area.

Are EVs for everyone? Of course not. But your post is hardly relative to real world use. I do not know your use case, so I cannot speak to the pros and cons. But I'm pretty sure you haven't lived with an EV for 5 years to learn what ownership is really like.
 
Except states and countries/blocs are literally banning new ICE vehicles. No, you're not forced to buy an EV (note - even hybrids are coming under the ban rule as not being ZEV), you simply have to deal without owning a car if you don't want an EV. "Oh, oh, but you're still allowed to buy a used ICE vehicle!" In a limited used vehicle market under increasingly-draconian emissions laws limiting where you're even allowed to drive them without legalized government extortion (like in London, and soon enough, more of the UK), for now, sure.

Arguing that no one is forcing EV sales to replace ICE is academically dishonest, at best.




California, need I say more? 😂

We can plead about it all we want on a motor oil forum on the internet, but I can physically choose from either 8 EVs, 5 hybrids, or 35 ICE vehicles at my Ford dealer today. These are projected things that haven't happened. I have a lot more access to ICE than I do any other vehicle. I'm not seeing it.

I live in the US. A law in another country that limits ICE sales sucks, but it does not directly affect me, nor do I have a voice to vote on anything going on there. I can't even vote on the California stuff. I really don't want this thread to bend political too, but there's a reason why we have states rights. You can still be part of the United States and live in a state within that union that has laws that support your beliefs. People leave California for other states for this reason all the time.

That's why I don't lend any credence to these bans. I'm banned from buying directly from an auto manufacturer. I had to go to another state to buy a Tesla and then drive back to Wisconsin to register it, so Wisconsin still got the sales tax on the purchase so that likely will never change. I'm free to move to the state that I had to pick the car up in if I'd like. It honestly makes me less likely to buy a second one new while living here. It was an absolute pain to pick up on Tesla's schedule with my schedule.

Could the Federal government change and ban ICE? Sure, they could. I doubt it though. They won't have to. Eventually there won't be an internal combustion engine that can meet CAFE.
 
When they have a car priced competitively with a gas car or hybrid, can go 500 miles on a charge minimum in 20 min or less, has a lifetime warranty on the battery and you guarantee my electric rate is under 20c KwH and there are 4 times as many charging stations as gas stations to prevent long waiting lines because of the extended times over filling a gas car then I may well be a customer if I live that long. Otherwise they can shove the EV where the sun doesnt shine sideways.
So you need it to be guaranteed 5 times over any product you've had in your life? It was slightly ridiculous but understandable up until unlimited battery warranty and guaranteed power rates. Fine I want an unlimited powertrain warranty, free fuel pumps for life, and a guaranteed $2 a gallon fuel or all you can suck a tail pipe! I'm sorry, but that's what your complaint sounds like.

Moving. Goal. Posts. Daily!
 
Dunno, electricity is just about everywhere I go.
Sure no one needs an EV, or a Porsche, Bro Dozer, Caddy, MBZ, you name it. Camrys make more sense than BMWs, but aren't half the fun.

I have said a bazillion times, an EV or whatever car depends on your use case. Most people do not drive 500 miles per day. I think the average is under 40 miles per day. Now recent numbers are likely skewed by the pandemic when people weren't driving as much...

I've owned an EV for over 5 years. Ownership is not what I thought; fueling is far more convenient that my gas vehicles. There is nothing like starting every day with a full tank. People charge at Wally World, work and many many shopping centers. Again, I understand I live in a place that is tech heavy; we love this stuff. When I go 90 miles north to our Petaluma house, there is only 1 Supercharger location in the immediate area.

Are EVs for everyone? Of course not. But your post is hardly relative to real world use. I do not know your use case, so I cannot speak to the pros and cons. But I'm pretty sure you haven't lived with an EV for 5 years to learn what ownership is really like.
JK IMO you live in lala land with rose colored glasses and have no concept of any sort of reality, there is no discussion with you, you only see things one way, your way. JMO
 
Fine I want an unlimited powertrain warranty, free fuel pumps for life, and a guaranteed $2 a gallon fuel or all you can suck a tail pipe!
I have a lifetime powertrain warranty. The catch is I have to bring it to Jeep every 5 years for an inspection. So far they haven't had to do any repairs to it in the almost 16 years I have it. They did three inspections now. $2/gallon gas that might be a little tough though.
 
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