Synthetic Oil Test on "TRUCKS!"

[dnewton3]

http://www.autoblog.com/2008/02/01/wisconsin-mans-91-silverado-set-to-hit-1-million-miles/

http://www.knfilters.com/news/news.aspx?ID=157

Two trucks that ran one million miles each.

Not a drop of synthetic oil in sight. Just short OCIs (3-4K miles) with dino oils. (Ironic, is it not, that the guy with the K&N filter can see the fiscal benefit to re-using his air filter, but cannot grasp the concept of extended OCIs ...

)

There are two ways to get long service life out of your equipment, whatever equipment that might be.
1) use synthetic lubricants for longer OCIs, especially with BP filtration
2) use conventional lubricants for short OCIs

Clean lubricants are what makes things last a long time. There are two roads to the same destination. You can either filter out, or flush out, the contamination. Your choice. Either is just effective. But do not for one second try to convince me that synthetics and/or bypass filtration are the ONLY way to long equipment life.

Synthethic fluids and bypass filtration are a means of extending OCIs; they are a fiscal savings tool. Long equipment life is NOT UNIQUE to those products. You can achieve long equipment life from simple, frequent OCIs. Synthetics and bypass filtration make fluids last longer in service, not equipment.

What makes equipment last a long time is a proper maintenance plan!

 

[BeanCounter]

In general, you have a pretty good point.
But, like most who make this argument, the assumption is being made "given that all else is equal". Unfortunately, other than simply making assumptions, it may be a little more convoluted than that as to if X brand dino oil cleans and reconditions seals (etc.) per 3k or 5k miles as well as Y brand synthetic does over 10k or 15k miles.

I feel that a lot of the argument can be pretty relative. If someone thinks 250k is plenty of life, they may be ignorant of the fact that they could have gotten (as an example, not suggesting always) 300k+ out of their engine. But hindsight is 20/20. Being satisfied with a long-life on conventional oil has never proved that a vehicle's motor lasted just as long as it could have on a superior product.

Simply putting it in perspective. I prefer to go with the oil that is plenty enough (if not more) rather than an oil that has to be argued is just enough. Maybe that is just me though...

 

[BeanCounter]

Originally Posted By: dnewton3

What makes equipment last a long time is a proper maintenance plan!


This would solve 99% of the problems!

 

[dnewton3]

"I prefer to go with the oil that is plenty enough (if not more) rather than an oil that has to be argued is just enough. Maybe that is just me though..."

That is a very fair statement. But I would offer that even this has to be put into perspective.

I think most of us would agree that reasonably well maintained cars, using good quality dino oil, can go 5k miles on an OCI. That in mind, if one were to OCI at 3k miles, even the dino would be "plenty enough (if not more)".

On the opposite end of the spectrum, even synthetics have their limit. While 15k or 25k miles on synthetics and conventional full flow filters are reasonable, you'd never consider running 50k miles+ on ANY synthetic, if bypass filtration were not in use.

So, to my point, it becomes a matter of maintenance planning. Can you review and balance all the items I've mentioned before, to pay out for your planned ROI. Some people prefer to have a "buffer" and change oil sooner than required. That's fine for them; I have no issue with that as long as they can acknowlege some portion is waste. OCIs at 3k miles with quality dinos is a waste. OCIs at 7k miles with synthetic is a waste as well. Using any lubricant to it's full potential (without going past the safe zone) is the method to get your full value out of any product. THAT is what UOAs are supposed to be used for.

Most members here just play with UOAs and don't use them for what they are. UOAs are planning tools to reap the best value from lubricant decisions. UOAs are supposed to be for planning the OCI duration; yet most people here pick an emotionally satisfying OCI, and then UOA. Most people have it backwards. I fully understand and agree that you can also use a UOA for finding contamination such as coolant and dirt ingestion, but I'm restricting my point to wear metals at this point.

There are many, many UOAs that show short to moderate OCI durations do not result in lower wear for synthetic lubes when compared to dino lubes. The "synthetic advantage" does not show up until you extend the OCI. If you're unable or unwilling to do that, then synthetics are mostly a waste. In fact, using any fluid to less than its full, safe potential is a waste.

In theory, regardless of what lubricant you use, the "wear" experienced by your equipment should be the same, no matter what lube you use. If you choose to limit your wear metals to certain levels (say 25ppm for Fe, 30ppm for Cu, etc), based upon data showing those limits to be safe and effetive, then you would run ANY lubricant to those wear levels. So, synthetics don't result in less wear, because you're going to run out to the same wear level. But synthetics might last longer in service, before you reach that same limit.

Another thing to consider is how greatly the lubricant products have changed in relation to one another. 35 years ago, synthetics were head and heals above dino fluids. PAO products were light years ahead of dinos. But the game has changed in a lop-sided sense. Synthetic products (I'm including group III and IV) have not advanced much in the last 10 years; they are, for most purposes, maxed out. We're not likely to see major advnacements in group III and IV fluid base stock, and the additive packages are pretty much tweaked out. But dino fluids have had significant advances in the last 10 years. The quality of base stock has dramtically improved in both purity and composition. So what was true 30 years ago (synthetics might well have been able to post less wear over the same short OCI) is simply not true any longer. It takes a long OCI to allow a synthetic to show any real benefit. Quality brand name dino fluids are so good today that up to 5k, 6k or even 7k miles, there is precious little difference between dino and synthetics in regard to wear performance. I have seen several dino UOAs with Delo, Delvac and Rotella that are every bit as good as Amsoil and RTS, up to 10k miles. Why spend 3x or 4x more money for "synthetics" when you don't see 3x or 4x less wear in the same OCI duration? The only way to get your value is to extend the OCI so that you get 3x or 4x more use.

 

[BeanCounter]

I understand what you're saying, and I agree with the majority of it. I'm simply acknowledging the following:

1) First, you'd have to be assuming that the add. packs are equal to assume that there is a linear ratio between the longevity/effectiveness they have on mineral oil vs synthetic oil.
Do they additives and detergents last 90% as long as the molecules themselves in both types of oil? I don't know that it would be safe to assume here, which reduces comparability significantly.

2) That being said, you specifically mention that not using an oil to its full potential is wasteful. If some true synthetics are nearly as, if not more, cost effective as high quality dinos, as you specifically referenced them, then you are betting on the oil and all of its abilities to be maxed out in order to compete both performance-wise AND price-wise.

Quote:
That in mind, if one were to OCI at 3k miles, even the dino would be "plenty enough (if not more)".


Here you are comparing dino's at 3k as plenty enough to the comment I made about synthetics in general. If so, you have grossly sacrificed cost effectiveness to be deemed "effectively" equivalent in performance to a quality synthetic. What purpose would that serve?

Now, I am a proponent of spending more per quart to receive insurance and performance. There is absolutely nothing wrong with going "overkill" on the lifeblood of your motor for a few extra $. In fact, it may be more conservative and sure-fire than the alternative. But why would you risk spending more, if not absolutely spending more, for an inferior product to undoubtedly ensure that it returns the performance and holds up as well as its alternative?

My thought-process tells me I'd rather sleep at night knowing the possibility I spent < $20 more on a superior oil than that my oil is hopefully just "getting by" or "doing the job".
But it's different strokes for different folks, so I'm not condemning.

 

[BeanCounter]

Quote:
So, synthetics don't result in less wear, because you're going to run out to the same wear level. But synthetics might last longer in service, before you reach that same limit.


Again, are we assuming an identical linear ratio wear-rate?
In a textbook world, this may be great, but I don't think this is a unanimously conceived notion.

Quote:

Another thing to consider is how greatly the lubricant products have changed in relation to one another. 35 years ago, synthetics were head and heals above dino fluids. PAO products were light years ahead of dinos. But the game has changed in a lop-sided sense. Synthetic products (I'm including group III and IV) have not advanced much in the last 10 years; they are, for most purposes, maxed out.


Yes, an baseball team that goes 40-122 has more room to improve than a team that goes 122-40. I agree, but this doesn't necessarily make the oils "comparable", again as a ratio, on all levels.

Quote:
I have seen several dino UOAs with Delo, Delvac and Rotella that are every bit as good as Amsoil and RTS, up to 10k miles. Why spend 3x or 4x more money for "synthetics" when you don't see 3x or 4x less wear in the same OCI duration?


In what world does Amsoil and a few others cost 3-4x a quality dino oil?
This isn't severely the case when considering initial purchase price and it is absolutely not true when considering per mile of use.

I would gladly let someone base their use of an oil off of "several dino UOAs" as a reason to max out the oils effectiveness on par with a higher quality synthetic oil. Any day of the week, and twice on Sundays.
Like I've said, no slam on these dino oils because they have some great quality...for what they are. Chances are, if you are running a high quality dino oil out to 10k, you aren't paying much less than what you could get a true synthetic for...that you don't have to strain to test the limits on.

Heck, even Amsoil XL (7.5k) can be had for less than 2x the price of some oils that are 3k-ers; for those who put very few miles per year on a vehicle.

 

[dnewton3]

You make good points. I'll try to better define what I was referring to.

Condemnation levels are always compromises. In a UOA, we might be looking for certain levels of Fe or Al or Pb or Cu. At some point, we trip the trigger and say "OCI". I agree that the relationship is not linear, but there are reasonable and acceptable ppm limits that make us agree to OCI. Part of the human interaction is deciding when one attribute is above the others, the question becomes "how much above" in relation. If you were to set a limit of 25ppm for Cu, and all your other wear metals were low, and the Cu popped up to 26ppm, it might be OK to run past that 25ppm if you had other data that made for a comfortable decision. OTOH, if your wear metals were all below, but near, the condemnation limits then the decision to OCI might be prudent, if they are not "over" the limit, due to other factors such as ease of service, other service interests, etc (why not OCI the engine oil when the vehicle is also in for tranny service?, etc).

UOAs are a guide, they are NOT an end-all-be-all answer. They are a tool to help predict and decide when to change oil. They are excellent tools when they are used to their full potential, which precious few people here do. Most here use them as conversation starters for social networking; nothing wrong with that, but it's not really "informative" on some levels.

In what world does Amsoil and a few others cost 3-4x a quality dino oil?
In this one. Here's a good example, with real world numbers from myself and another member what was a former (self-proclaimed) "Amsoil Junkie".

My price comparison of dino to synthetic HDEOs is very fair. If you compare a sale-priced item to a sale-priced item, the ratio is between 3x to 4x the cost for an OCI, product dependent. Or, you can choose to compare retail to retail. Here are some examples for the true cost of OCIs:

My OCI costs:
Dino OCI with Delvac 1300 and a Wix fitler costs about $25 for my Dmax (10 qrts). That's getting the Delvac BOGOF (large promotion last year) and the Wix/NG on sale at Napa. Those are my TRUE costs. I didn't have to pay any shipping costs, and the BOGOF was priced at the counter; no "rebate" forms to worry about. The Delvac was 12.99/gallon, but two for one, and the 7202 NG filter was $5.99 on sale. Are these everyday prices? No they are not. But since I only OCI once a year, I have PLENTY of time to shop for a good sale. There are always good deals on HDEO out there eat least once every few moneths; you just have to go get them. My dino OCIs cost nothing more than a stop by a local store, which is right on my way home. The extra cost of my fuel pulling into AAP can only be pennies. I honestly paid under $25, including tax, for my OCI last fall!

B-man's Amsoil costs
Amsoil DEO oil change (or one of their other procucts that is similar). You can get the oil for around $6/qrt, but only AFTER you pay for a "preferred customer" membership of $20, so you must fairly add in that cost of the membership, otherwise your oil would be around $7.5o or more a quart. Then, to get the Amsoil advantage, you purchase an EaO filter, for around $15 or more, even with your PC membership. So the total cost of the Amsoil OCI is around $100, and quite possilby more if you have to pay for shipping. ($6/qrt x 10 qrts, + $20 membership + filter + shipping). As I recall, B-man's OCI was well over that because he was also using an Amsoil BP system. But we excluded that cost and only looked at the "conventional" OCI costs of DEO and EaO and membership; around $95 for him.

At a bare minimum, you're at 3x the cost, and quite likely much closer to the ratio of 4x the cost. The reason I say 3x to 4x is because some people can buy Amsoil off the shelf, so they pay no shipping, but they also don't get the PC discount. OTOH, some can get their Amsoil through an employer and save the shipping. Etc, Etc.

You can even apply this cost relationship to a product such as Mobil 1 TDT, which is around $7.50/qrt retail, and add a P1 filter. Still would cost around $85 or so. I have never seen TDT go on sale. Even if it did, it would still only drop the OCI to around $75, which is still 3x my dino OCI.

Dino HDEOs have plenty of promotional sales throughout the year. Tection Extra was $24/3 gallons last year at my AAP. I saw Rotella for $9/gallon at Menards last fall, and it's that price right now at my local Wally World. There was a Delvac rebate a year ago that made the stuff $7/gallon after mail-in.

Quality synthetic OCIs cost about 3x to 4x more than a quality dino OCI, all costs incurred. Period. If you doubt me, just PM Gary or Pablo, and get a real quote for your favorite Amsoil product shipped to your door. Be sure to be fair and include ALL costs.

So to get your value out of a synthetic, if you cannot get 3x or 4x less wear (which UOAs show you clearly don't experience for short to moderate OCIs) then you must get 3x to 4x more mileage out of them to even break even. The ROI is in extended OCIs, if you can/will push them out that far.

I'm sure you see the numbers to that logic, as a "beancounter".

 

[Pablo]

You can get by without paying PC cost, or you can get by with $10 pc cost, and you don't have to use an Ea0 filter. Shipping is way under $1 qt, and of course you never add the cost (and complete hassle) of driving 24 miles ONE WAY to the closest Walmart. Why is that?

Funny how you really try to get the lowest cost dino, but in reality when you want dino oil, and when you want a specific brand it's never quite as low cost as you claim. Try $3+ quart in your calculations. Sure there are sales from time to time, but be realistic, most people aren't waiting for a sale on any old brand that just happens to be on sale.

So 3X-4X is YOUR straw man. Your way of cutting down Amsoil in a polite way. Try 2.5X and sometimes less, for the real world.

 

[dnewton3]

I disagree Pablo.

Perhaps you live somewhere way out no-where, but there are LOTS of WallyWorlds closer than 24 miles each way for most of us. I believe you're being a bit over-sensitive? There are precious few people that cannot combine a trip to town, regardless of where they live, and stop by the food store, liquor store, autoparts store, WallyWorld, Dr. Office, etc and not get oil at the same time they get XYZPDQ ... I am being realistic; most of us ordinary people can figure out how to be efficient in our shopping habits.

Further, it is VERY easy to find quality dino (Delo, Delvac, Rotella, etc) on sale around this nation at least once every couple months. I haven't paid more than $9/gallon for any of those since I bought my Dmax in 2006. Those that don't buy dino fluids are probably not atuned to find the sales, but I assure they are out there with great frequency.

Regarding your Amsoil costs, what is the actual dollar cost you are saying is available for 10 quarts for a PAO Amsoil product? Shipping might be between $5-10, depending upon location, right? So how much can you provide DEO for, per quart?
Fill in the blanks:
10 quarts DEO total cost >
EaO fitler >
shipping >
PC membership >

Give us actual nubmers please.

And, let's not forget, that you cannot greatly extend your OCI and expect full Amsoil warranty coverage WITHOUT the EaO for the full benefit. Right? So why use Amsoil if you're not going to use an EaO? How many people that DO use Amsoil engine oil, choose NOT to use a EaO in a full-flow conventional system? Probably could count them on one hand. Or, are you susggesting that it's OK to go 3x the OEM OCI with the Fram OCOD? Are you stating that Amsoil will warrant their oil products that far (up to 50k miles per their warranty statement for oil) with an inexpensive run-of-the-mill oil filter?
See here:
Diesel Engine Service

Three times (3X) OEM* recommendation, not to exceed 50,000 miles/600 hours or one year, whichever comes first. Drain intervals may be extended further with oil analysis.

Now, I understand that one could extend oil drains, but you have to pay for a UOA, which again drives up the cost of the Amsoil plan, does it not?


I have averaged $25 - $27 per OCI for my Dmax for four years now.
Bman average around $95 for his Amsoil OCIs.
Those are real world examples.

The numbers don't lie.

 

[BeanCounter]

Originally Posted By: dnewton3

And, let's not forget, that you cannot greatly extend your OCI and expect full Amsoil warranty coverage WITHOUT the EaO for the full benefit. Right? So why use Amsoil if you're not going to use an EaO? How many people that DO use Amsoil engine oil, choose NOT to use a EaO in a full-flow conventional system? Probably could count them on one hand. Or, are you susggesting that it's OK to go 3x the OEM OCI with the Fram OCOD? Are you stating that Amsoil will warrant their oil products that far (up to 50k miles per their warranty statement for oil) with an inexpensive run-of-the-mill oil filter?
See here:
Diesel Engine Service


I believe this is 100% wrong, but I don't mind being corrected. As I recall, Amsoil warranties their oil with the use of other commercial brand oil filters if they are changed at the OEM recommended intervals. I won't even get into the likely savings (and added protection) of a better filter. The price "shock" of the filter is always one of the first comments, but I can pay nearly half, if not that much, for a quality commercial brand that is to be changed at OEM-specified intervals.

I'll be back to address the rest later...

 

[TiredTrucker]

I have got to chime back in on this. I realize Amsoil is stating such things as "3x oem recommended change interval", and it does sound neat, but it may not work out that way. My OEM recommended interval on my Cummins ISX is 25,000 miles. I tried the Amsoil at one time, it didn't make it much beyond the 25K interval before the sample lab and the techs at Cummins (after seeing the sample data) said to get it changed out. And that was after several OCI's on the stuff.

That being said, the current proprietary blend I use from Allied Oil Supply out of Omaha, NE, gives me as good (actually, just slightly better in iron and lead wear rate) performance as the Amsoil or any other oil did. Now, since the engine takes 10 gallons at each OCI, someone here breakout the calculator and show me how a boutique synthetic is going to be beneficial to me when I can get my current oil (a 40% grpIII blend) at $9 a gallon, delivered in a 55 drum to my house for the whopping fee of $5 and have the same OCI.

Not in any way saying that Amsoil, RP, Schaeffer, Delvac 1, etc are bad oils. They are good oils. But real world experiences may show that things don't look as good as they do in a glossy ad. Each engine is different. It costs $32,000 current price to replace my semi engine with a new one. I can't afford to just go "cheap", but likewise, I don't need to mortgage the farm for a motor oil if it isn't going to offer some real substantial cost effectiveness. My last semi engine, a '95 Cummins N-14, got 1.4 million miles (30K mile OCI's)on Kendall 15w40 dino, before it was traded, and it still had not had major work done and used, on average, only 1 gallon each 7-8 thousand miles. A lot of virtually new semi engines don't do that well.

I do still use Amsoil in some other applications (mostly small gas engines), as well as Schaeffer is others (Jeep Liberty Diesel and New Holland ag tractor), so this is not a rant against the boutique oils. But these blanket "it is the best thing there is" and "look at our 4 ball wear test" claims made by various oil products may not pan out to be what they claim depending on the application. Some users will be able to pull off the 3x OCI scenario. Especially if they operate under ideal conditions. Not sure that most will.

 

[Pablo]

10 quarts DEO total cost $63
EaO filter $13 (not required at all)
shipping $10
PC membership $10 (but why?)

Let's just compare oil cost delivered. The filter cost just muddies the comparison.

If you spend $25 per oil change - you get some low cost oil changes! But let's be realistic, say $2.50/qt. $25 for oil. And you buy gallons, find a sale and drive to the store, at least add a buck or two for that.

$73 for the Amsoil delivered to your door. Almost 3X, but not 4X!

 

[Pablo]

Also, AME works out to be $5.63 quart.

 

[BeanCounter]

Originally Posted By: TiredTrucker
I have got to chime back in on this. I realize Amsoil is stating such things as "3x oem recommended change interval", and it does sound neat, but it may not work out that way. My OEM recommended interval on my Cummins ISX is 25,000 miles. I tried the Amsoil at one time, it didn't make it much beyond the 25K interval before the sample lab and the techs at Cummins (after seeing the sample data) said to get it changed out. And that was after several OCI's on the stuff.

That being said, the current proprietary blend I use from Allied Oil Supply out of Omaha, NE, gives me as good (actually, just slightly better in iron and lead wear rate) performance as the Amsoil or any other oil did. Now, since the engine takes 10 gallons at each OCI, someone here breakout the calculator and show me how a boutique synthetic is going to be beneficial to me when I can get my current oil (a 40% grpIII blend) at $9 a gallon, delivered in a 55 drum to my house for the whopping fee of $5 and have the same OCI.

Not in any way saying that Amsoil, RP, Schaeffer, Delvac 1, etc are bad oils. They are good oils. But real world experiences may show that things don't look as good as they do in a glossy ad. Each engine is different. It costs $32,000 current price to replace my semi engine with a new one. I can't afford to just go "cheap", but likewise, I don't need to mortgage the farm for a motor oil if it isn't going to offer some real substantial cost effectiveness. My last semi engine, a '95 Cummins N-14, got 1.4 million miles (30K mile OCI's)on Kendall 15w40 dino, before it was traded, and it still had not had major work done and used, on average, only 1 gallon each 7-8 thousand miles. A lot of virtually new semi engines don't do that well.

I do still use Amsoil in some other applications (mostly small gas engines), as well as Schaeffer is others (Jeep Liberty Diesel and New Holland ag tractor), so this is not a rant against the boutique oils. But these blanket "it is the best thing there is" and "look at our 4 ball wear test" claims made by various oil products may not pan out to be what they claim depending on the application. Some users will be able to pull off the 3x OCI scenario. Especially if they operate under ideal conditions. Not sure that most will.


I understand what you are saying here and don't disagree at all that it isn't possible in certain particular situations/uses to consistently see one ending result.

As I was going to mention earlier, was the OP referring to a large diesel truck? These tend to be quite different from 99% of the average consumer's uses...but just wanted to make sure that we were comparing apples to apples.

Also, running 1 fill of Amsoil, after shocking your system coming from cheap(er) dino, is not always going to return perfectly. It has been reported to be plausible that it takes more than one OCI to determine the oil's ability. You may have run more than 1, but I am just going by the info you supplied me.

 

[BeanCounter]

Originally Posted By: dnewton3

UOAs are a guide, they are NOT an end-all-be-all answer. They are a tool to help predict and decide when to change oil. They are excellent tools when they are used to their full potential, which precious few people here do. Most here use them as conversation starters for social networking; nothing wrong with that, but it's not really "informative" on some levels.


Very true. But these are the specs that OEM recommendations and oil manufacturer's cling to because it is the easiest, and most conservative (when used appropriately) form of maintenance guidelines. This being the case, one thing never addressed is the warranty.

Amsoil provides a clear, concise recommendation AND warranty to their products when used as specified. 25,000 means 25,000, or extended as a result of UOA. I know you mentioned this is "another $20..." or whatever it was, but pro-rate $20 over 25,000 miles + the miles possibly gained by warranty extension. This is just an example, but one that shows you a very low cost factor.

I realize that you have heard of or possibly even used Delvac, Delo, Rotella and so on up to 10k. Do you realized what you are actually guaranteed by, let's say, Mobil 1, when you exceed your OEM OCI?

Originally Posted By: Mobil.com

This is a limited warranty covering the Mobil 1 motor lubricant you purchased. ExxonMobil warrants its lubricants to be free from defects and will replace any Mobil lubricant that is defective. For all vehicles follow the recommended oil change interval in your owner's manual. ExxonMobil warrants that the Mobil 1 lubricant you purchased will protect your vehicle’s critical engine parts from oil related failure. If not, provided the engine was serviceable at the time the oil was installed, Exxon Mobil will have your vehicle repaired and replace the oil at no cost to you.

ExxonMobil Lubricants & Petroleum Specialties Company, a division of Exxon Mobil Corporation ("ExxonMobil") provides this limited warranty to the purchasers who use Mobil brand lubricants in their vehicle.

This limited warranty covers the Mobil 1 lubricant and critical engine parts lubricated by the lubricant.

If there is equipment failure related to the Mobil brand lubricant you purchased, ExxonMobil will repair any equipment damage directly caused by a defect or malfunction of a Mobil lubricant, provided that the lubricant was selected and maintained in accordance with specifications of the original equipment manufacturer or the written instructions (which includes product packaging) of ExxonMobil.


So yes, I realize you might see good results extending your OCI like you mentioned, but you are giving up any warranty claim you might have had. This may not be an issue to most, who are confident in the oil, but it is important to point out since we are covering all bases.


Quote:
My price comparison of dino to synthetic HDEOs is very fair. If you compare a sale-priced item to a sale-priced item, the ratio is between 3x to 4x the cost for an OCI, product dependent. Or, you can choose to compare retail to retail. Here are some examples for the true cost of OCIs:

My OCI costs:
Dino OCI with Delvac 1300 and a Wix fitler costs about $25 for my Dmax (10 qrts). That's getting the Delvac BOGOF (large promotion last year) and the Wix/NG on sale at Napa. Those are my TRUE costs. I didn't have to pay any shipping costs, and the BOGOF was priced at the counter; no "rebate" forms to worry about. The Delvac was 12.99/gallon, but two for one, and the 7202 NG filter was $5.99 on sale. Are these everyday prices? No they are not. But since I only OCI once a year, I have PLENTY of time to shop for a good sale. There are always good deals on HDEO out there eat least once every few moneths; you just have to go get them. My dino OCIs cost nothing more than a stop by a local store, which is right on my way home. The extra cost of my fuel pulling into AAP can only be pennies. I honestly paid under $25, including tax, for my OCI last fall!

B-man's Amsoil costs
Amsoil DEO oil change (or one of their other procucts that is similar). You can get the oil for around $6/qrt, but only AFTER you pay for a "preferred customer" membership of $20, so you must fairly add in that cost of the membership, otherwise your oil would be around $7.5o or more a quart. Then, to get the Amsoil advantage, you purchase an EaO filter, for around $15 or more, even with your PC membership. So the total cost of the Amsoil OCI is around $100, and quite possilby more if you have to pay for shipping. ($6/qrt x 10 qrts, + $20 membership + filter + shipping). As I recall, B-man's OCI was well over that because he was also using an Amsoil BP system. But we excluded that cost and only looked at the "conventional" OCI costs of DEO and EaO and membership; around $95 for him.

At a bare minimum, you're at 3x the cost, and quite likely much closer to the ratio of 4x the cost. The reason I say 3x to 4x is because some people can buy Amsoil off the shelf, so they pay no shipping, but they also don't get the PC discount. OTOH, some can get their Amsoil through an employer and save the shipping. Etc, Etc.

You can even apply this cost relationship to a product such as Mobil 1 TDT, which is around $7.50/qrt retail, and add a P1 filter. Still would cost around $85 or so. I have never seen TDT go on sale. Even if it did, it would still only drop the OCI to around $75, which is still 3x my dino OCI.

Dino HDEOs have plenty of promotional sales throughout the year. Tection Extra was $24/3 gallons last year at my AAP. I saw Rotella for $9/gallon at Menards last fall, and it's that price right now at my local Wally World. There was a Delvac rebate a year ago that made the stuff $7/gallon after mail-in.

Quality synthetic OCIs cost about 3x to 4x more than a quality dino OCI, all costs incurred. Period. If you doubt me, just PM Gary or Pablo, and get a real quote for your favorite Amsoil product shipped to your door. Be sure to be fair and include ALL costs.

So to get your value out of a synthetic, if you cannot get 3x or 4x less wear (which UOAs show you clearly don't experience for short to moderate OCIs) then you must get 3x to 4x more mileage out of them to even break even. The ROI is in extended OCIs, if you can/will push them out that far.

I'm sure you see the numbers to that logic, as a "beancounter".


Well, in order to break down fixed and variable costs, you first have to begin with some non-variable factors.

For the purpose of proving a point to everyone, we cannot use "SALE" prices at one's local store, when they aren't true for everyone, at any given time. I will give you the benefit of $12.99/gallon for an example of your oil though.

Second, you cannot fairly compare two different oils, X by recommended/warranty length of OCI and Y by "So and so's UOA" and so on. I am not doubting or mocking what you said, but again, this is a presumption that varies too much to provide a straight forward result. In the same sense, Amsoil could be run longer than it is specified with positive results.

In the following, I am going to give you the benefit of the situation and factor in using surplus amounts for later oil changes. I am also going to forgo the ability to buy ATM and AMO in 2.5 Gallon quantities, which would, of course, further reduce the cost per quart. And lastly, we are going to assume that the 6-month $10 Preferred Customer cost is only allocated to this one vehicle. If you have more than one vehicle, as many households do, you can consider that $10 price a bloated gift. This goes for shipping as well. How nice of me!

This is based off a more "average" user scenario with 10W-30 or 10W-40, as specified in picture, with 5 gallons being required for each fill. The following mile-intervals are based on reaching that many miles in 1 year, for comparison. Taxes, price of oil filter and TRAVEL are disregarded due to ambiguity
.
(No travel means the calculation automatically errs on eliminating a non-objective figure like this, as it would be too hard to judge for the masses. Another benefit to dino in this computation, yet again. This calc. is essentially assuming FREE shipping to your door, which, of course, would be silly. Keep that in mind.)

25k OCI

20k OCI

15k OCI

Notes: - If you get purchase the preferred customer membership and use it for > 1 vehicle OR you spend more than $0.59 in gas to pick up the dino at the store, Amsoil becomes more cost efficient.

10k OCI #1

Notes: - W/ preferred customer calc: A combination of > 1 vehicle and a modest amount of gas to pickup dino could offset the cost advantage, if not reverse it.
- W/O pref. customer calc: > 1 vehicle or $3.58 of gas for travel to pick up dino would eliminate the greater cost effectiveness.

10k OCI #2

Notes: - W/ preferred customer calc: A combination of > 1 vehicle and a modest amount of gas to pickup dino could offset the cost advantage, if not reverse it.
- W/O pref. customer calc: > 1 vehicle or $3.36 of gas for travel to pick up dino would eliminate the greater cost effectiveness.

5k OCI

Notes: -W/O Preferred Customer calc: > 1 vehicle and/or modest amount of gas expense for travel to get dino could eliminate or reverse cost advantage


Feel free to tell me what you would like to see me change or what you would like to challenge in regards to accuracy in the previous graphics. I am open to criticism if you see me treating your product very unfairly, but keep in mind the advantages dino oil had over synthetic in this computation from the get-go.

For folks who don't run $12.99/gallon dino, but do run dino: what would the cost advantage be if you're paying $3.99+ a quart? Just putting it out there...

 

[dnewton3]

I almost think we might be in some agreement here.

Pablo - I specifically stated a "range" of cost ratio, because as I said, there are always some circumstances that will adjust individual costs. If you re-read my posts, you'll see I give specific examples. ANY synthetic that is of high quality such as the PAOs, is going to average around 3x - 4x the cost; it is certainly situation dependent. The conversation started out more generic in nature, and I even included M1-TDT in some of my comments. I apologize if I gave personal offense, because that was not my intent. But my facts are fairly secure; 3x to 4x is a fair range of cost ratio, and Amsoil clearly falls into that range.

BTW - perhaps I've learned something here from all this. Do I understand correctly that use of EaO filter is not required for the OCI extension? I was under the impression that to get the extended OCI warranty coverage, one must use an EaO in conjunction with the Amsoil oil. If not, that certainly changes a small portion of the figures I point out; it puts the figures much closer to the 3x factor than the 4x factor. Still - I would counter that MOST people that choose to run Amsoil engine oil are ALSO going to run an EaO, so the OCI cost is at least 3.5x.

Further, let's not be so presumtive to think that Amsoil is the only choice here. I already included other products in my previous statements. I started out with many generic statments, because I didn't want to get pidgeon-hole'd into only one example, but that's exactly how it turned out. Those that choose RL or RP or M1 don't get the benefits of "PC" programs, and will likely never find those products on sale. So my comment of PAO synthetics in general, being 3x to 4x the cost for an OCI, is dead on accurate. I would also NOT agree that 12.99/gallon is a fair price for dino HDEO; that is the SHELF RETAIL price. If you peruse the sale/rebate sub-forum, you'll see that AT LEAST once every few months, there is some national discount deal available on dino HDEO. It might be a brand that you're not used to, but for moderate OCIs, brand means nothing (it might affect a UOA, but it won't affect the engine's abiltiy to function safely). The realistic average price to pay for a gallon of HDEO is less than $10, and closer to $9. If you want to compare RETAIL prices of HDEO, then to be "fair" we have to use "retail" prices of Amsoil, which is nowhere near the $6/qrt! Read back through my comments; fair is fair; retail to retail, or sale to sale. Apples and oranges, gents.

The cost ratio is ONLY specific to the asumption that OCIs are held constant, but MY ENTIRE POINT is that you MUST manipulate the OCI to find a break even fiscal point. If you hold the OCI as an equally constant moderate, PAOs and premium filters cost 3-4x more money, but they certainly do not result in 3-4x less wear. So, to get your ROI, you must hold the wear levels at some constant, and manipulate the OCI. You can't get 3-4x less wear with PAOs at 5k miles, but you can get 15k or 20k miles, by holding the ppm limits at safe levels in a UOA series! The syntheics are great products for extended OCIs! That is where your "value" exists.

Beancounter - you make good points. I don't know that I agree with them all completely, but there is some merit in what you state.

My data is driven from more that 175 UOAs I have gleaned from this, and other, sites. I do statisical quality control for a living. I am attuned to seperating the wheat from the chaff. All this data goes into a statistical program I have available to me; the results are stunningly simple. The mass amount of lubricant decisions can be driven down to mileage choices. Short-to-moderate OCIs favor dino fluids because they protect against wear, experience no more soot/insolubles, and are temperature capable (as compared to "synthethics") in about 95% of all circumstances. Only when the mileage is driven out to extended OCIs, will synthetics show significant statistical advantages. In the other 5% of situations, there are times when temp flows and such will make synthetics a better decision, even though they cost more. ANY fluid can be over or under utilized; the "best" approach is to establish safe operating parameters, and then work up to (but not grossly past) those limits. Human intervention does make sense when small nuiances can slightly alter the situation. Human emotions never makes fiscal sense; they are, by definition, based upon a "feeling" and not on data; they are about "wants" and not "needs".

I don't know that I have much more to offer at this point; we can agree on many points, and agree to disagree on a few.

 

[BeanCounter]

Originally Posted By: dnewton3

BTW - perhaps I've learned something here from all this. Do I understand correctly that use of EaO filter is not required for the OCI extension? I was under the impression that to get the extended OCI warranty coverage, one must use an EaO in conjunction with the Amsoil oil. If not, that certainly changes a small portion of the figures I point out; it puts the figures much closer to the 3x factor than the 4x factor. Still - I would counter that MOST people that choose to run Amsoil engine oil are ALSO going to run an EaO, so the OCI cost is at least 3.5x.


Again, I believe this is accurate. I think you are correct that most folks running Amsoil will run the EaO if possible, in conjunction. I do, however, disagree about the cost.

Regardless of how long of an OCI you choose to run your oil, one of the only fair means of comparing apples to apples is recommendation/warranty on the oil filter.

So you claim a $15 EaO filter makes the oil change 1/6 + more expensive, but how?
What is the OEM recommendation for OCI/Filter length on your/most vehicles? 5,000?
The EaO filters are typically warrantied to 25,000 miles.
So unless you can purchase as high quality of a filter (5) times for $3 a piece ($15 x 20%), you aren't receiving the same cost effectiveness. And in all honesty, I don't think I would run a $3 or less filter for more than 3k hardly, much less 5k.

Be sure to acknowledge this is a discussion on my part as well, not to be confused with an argument. I enjoy the contrast and comparison of discussion like this, so please do not take this all wrong!

 

[BeanCounter]

Originally Posted By: dnewton3

Further, let's not be so presumtive to think that Amsoil is the only choice here. I already included other products in my previous statements. I started out with many generic statments, because I didn't want to get pidgeon-hole'd into only one example, but that's exactly how it turned out. Those that choose RL or RP or M1 don't get the benefits of "PC" programs, and will likely never find those products on sale. So my comment of PAO synthetics in general, being 3x to 4x the cost for an OCI, is dead on accurate. I would also NOT agree that 12.99/gallon is a fair price for dino HDEO; that is the SHELF RETAIL price. If you peruse the sale/rebate sub-forum, you'll see that AT LEAST once every few months, there is some national discount deal available on dino HDEO. It might be a brand that you're not used to, but for moderate OCIs, brand means nothing (it might affect a UOA, but it won't affect the engine's abiltiy to function safely). The realistic average price to pay for a gallon of HDEO is less than $10, and closer to $9. If you want to compare RETAIL prices of HDEO, then to be "fair" we have to use "retail" prices of Amsoil, which is nowhere near the $6/qrt! Read back through my comments; fair is fair; retail to retail, or sale to sale. Apples and oranges, gents.


First, I know you weren't picking out Amsoil vs. HDEO, but these were the most readily available figures, so I was using an example, clearly marked by the products above each column. That is important, as I wasn't categorizing all PAOs.

Second, I understand your statements about sale price. You make a very good point that some HDEO is likely to be on sale somewhere once a month or every few months, etc. But in order to compare fixed and variable costs, you CANNOT introduce subjectivity. The most reasonable, constant numbers you can use are what an individual can purchase the oil for at any given moment. Otherwise, the choice of 10 oils that could be on sale at some auto parts store somewhere within 50 miles of you will certainly reap more advantages in a calculation. It would be completely subjective and, realistically, unfair for me to assume in the computations I made that everyone can find some HDEO on sale for $X, which can, in no way, be true for everyone at any moment.

Also, it would make more sense that we would be stick with one brand vs the Amsoil brand, not flip-flopping between any and all, as this introduces WAY too many variables (the assumption is that you are getting the SAME wear/protection/performance from whichever HDEO special-of-the-month happens to pop up).

Lastly, I know you want to compare "Sale" prices of HDEO to Preferred Customer prices of Amsoil, but again, this is completely subjective. Whereas I can tell you what the price of Amsoil AMO quarts would be on May 3rd right now (even with the preferred customer discount), you cannot tell me the price of the HDEO of your choice because it is completely ambiguous. It is a mismatch to compare dino "retail" and "sale" vs. Amsoil "retail" and "sale", because the former is much more trivial than the latter. If someone had a hint of foresight, they would clearly be able to calculate the benefit of buying "retail" from Amsoil or buying as a PC. I factored in those prices and that, allocated amongst the quantity of oil) becomes the equivalent of dino "retail" because it is a constant, unambiguous number that will exist in 2 months and 8 days just as well as it does now.

When in doubt, you always have to lean on conservatism when comparing things like this. Basing the cost of HDEO oil on a statement like "Somewhere you can find an HDEO brand on sale for $9 or $10", unfortunately, is not NEAR concrete enough to form a calculation.

I can pick up oil from another Amsoil dealer for a small fraction of his cost to pick up the oil from a distribution center. I wouldn't be surprised if this were the case for a good number of folks with dealers in their general area, or at least some number. Would it be correct for me to assume many people in my calculation should be able to do this, saving off the cost of shipping?
Of course not, because that is too ambiguous and would never be the case for all customers at any given moment.
If there was a once-a-month sale that we knew the price on, I would go with that. I just don't think all people plan out their oil purchases in advance like some of us might.

For what it is worth, I agree that there are deals to be had, specifically referring to HDEOs like you have. I don't at all presume to say you cannot get a hot deal on good oil there. But if you look at my calculations, did you see how you have to start approaching 10k or less miles PER YEAR to make it as cost effective. So even at the deals you are getting, simply running 10k OCI doesn't make it worth it if you run (3) of those OCIs per year. That is the same as (1) 30k OCI or (2) 15k OCIs, which an oil like Amsoil will probably always be more cost effective.

When you referring to 10k OCIs, where you referring to 10k for the whole year, or multiple 10k runs throughout the year, just to clarify?

I don't discount your intelligence on this matter at all, as you definitely have some great points and support for your arguments. I don't think there is a BLACK & WHITE here. There is a lot of GRAY here, but I can only be the most objective when using the most straightforward data in examples like this. There are some things that even numbers can't always manifest the truth on all the time!

 

[dnewton3]

Good points, all.

In my example for my personal Dmax, the oil filter and oil are both recommended to the OLM. (BTW - my $25 OCI includes the oil and NG filter, for every OCI). Many people are getting 10k miles on the OLM, and seeing verification of such use with UOAs. I personally have seen great performance with dino HDEO and a "normal" Wix/NG filter, and can go to 10k miles, and that was with some heavy towing. So, you point about filters is fair (the OEM limit). But again, I try to account for some "fudge" factor by stating the RANGE of 3x-4x the price ratio. For every example I give, you could find an exception. And vice versa. At some point, I just become willing to concede "averages" for lack of desire to debate the minute. There are plenty of "normal" filters that can go 7.5k miles, some even 10k miles.

Only because you asked, I'll mention that my new Fusion 2.5L I-4 requires only 5w-20 WSS-M2C930-A (of which many dino fluids are licensed for) and a "normal" filter, all up to 7.5k miles!

In regard to cost, I would be willing to also concede the retail shelf price of $12/gallon for HDEO, but I can also point to Amsoil products sitting nearby. In my local Rural King farm supply store (Martinsville, IN), they actually have Amsoil oils right there on the shelf! But, they are no where near the $6/qrt; they are around $8/qrt!!!!!! So, again, I'm trying to be all encompassing in my generalizations. Sale to sale, or retail to retail. Those are real world experinces.

I completely agree that hopping from brand to brand messes with UOAs, but as far as engine protection goes, there is no risk. So, by finding brands on sale and being true to your wallet versus a brand, you can ALWAYS find something on sale with enough timely notice BEFORE an OCI, thereby making savings a constant, and not a variable. Like I said, in the four years I've owned my Dmax, I have yet to pay for an OCI over $25 or so. The fact that some people are not motivated to find such deals, does not make the opportunities any less real! And they are "regular" enough to be called consistent, as long as you are not brand loyal. I guess my point is simply boiled down to this: if one can plan far enough ahead in one's schedule to buy his Amsoil ordered via the net or phone (and get some preferred price), and wait for it to be shipped, then that same person should have reasonable opportunity to find a dino HDEO on sale somewhere, because it takes no more effort to surf the web for Amsoil than it does for Rotella, Delo or Delvac at AAP, PepBoys, O-R's, or such. And that doesn't include the mailer offers that come via bulk US Postal delivery for those local autoparts stores.

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on those topics. But I do suspect we're not that far off in our calculations. Which brings me to a conclusion of sorts.

For the sake of the debate, I'll accept a ratio of 2.5x cost. That still plays directly into my point that for someone to get their ROI, some magnitude of ratio must be gleaned via longer OCIs. 2.5x, or 3x, or 4x, whatever. Brands matter not. If your M1, Amsoil, RP or RL does not equate to 3x less wear at 7k miles, then you'd better hope it can go 21k miles (3x), or you've gone backwards in ROI.

I realize, as do you, that this is not only about Amsoil, but let's look at one of their popular products (DME)
http://www.amsoil.com/storefront/dme.aspx
On that page, you can scroll down and note where they tout the significant advantage of greater OCIs. But nowhere can they quantify lower wear! (They really don't even address wear, other than a generic statement that ANY oil product claims.) Even Amsoil knows that for short-to-moderate OCIs, there is no advantage to using synthetics. So the ONLY advantage that is available to 95% of us (excluding e-x-t-r-e-m-e cold) is one of longer OCIs. So however much money you spend (2x, 3x, 4x) you have to get the same ratio in OCI extension, or you've wasted money! And for MOST PAO products with a high quality filter that can go an equal distance, you're going to spend 3x to 4x the money.

Also, I find myself in great agreement with you one one point; that being individual considerations for each scenario. I try to be informative enough as to not leave gaps in my logic, and yet still be generic enough to encompass most situations; it's a difficult balance. But your point is exactly my point. One has to weigh all the variables, control what he can, and experience what results. I have always said people need to consider:
operating conditions
operating pattern
environmental conditions
price points
easy of service
ease of attainment
PM plan and desired OCI
etc.
to come up with a decision that meets the greatest number of attributes, balanced by the least amount of detriments. That in mind, if your synthetic costs 2.5x to 4x more money (for most situations), I'd like to think you'll get that same return in OCI. You certianly will NOT get 2.5x - 4x less wear over a short 5k mile OCI; the numbers simply don't support it.

BTW - no harm in this debate; I enjoy the exchange.

 

[dnewton3]

Something else occured to me as I reviewed the Amsoil site, although THIS IS NOT UNIQUE TO AMSOIL; all oil brands and many equipment OEMs have the " ... or one year, whichever come first." clause in their warranty.

If you run a premium PAO (regardless of brand) and your annual mileage does not meet/exceed the lubricant OCI limit, then you can never attain the "possible".

For example if you run AME from Amsoil, and only drive 10k or 15k miles a year, you may never touch the OCI capability limits of AME. Whatever ROI you hoped to gain is possilby shot. There is little sense in having an oil/filter that can go 3x the OEM OCI, if you only drive 12k miles a year! After the year is up, and if you intend to retain warranty coverage, you'll have to OCI. Or, you can "extend" the OCI past that annual point, but then you also have to pay for a UOA, which drives up the cost of the PAO scenario.

(Looking at a gasser oil, the situation is similar)
The same can be said for Mobil 1 EP; a 15k mile OCI is of no use to someone that only run 10k-12k miles a year. You can run two dino runs for less money than one of the EP, filters included or excluded. In my area, brand name dino is $2.69/qrt yet EP is $7.99/qrt (retail prices; filters not included) so it's almost an exact 3x ratio. For a 4 qrt sump example, you'd be looking at a total of $22 for dino in 10k miles (even up to 12k), and $32 for EP. It's cheaper to run dino, and still get reasonable wear protection.

My point being this: if you cannot attain at/near the OCI extensions in a year's time, you cannot realize the gain. Or, if you choose to extend past a year, you must pony up for the additional UOA, and that shifts the ROI.

Personally, I don't see anything wrong with going past a year's duration, but that's only for equipment that is out of warranty (I do this myself on some equipment). But for my warrantied stuff, I follow the OEM and/or lube limit.

All food for thought and debate.