Renewable energy isn't that expensive

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Originally Posted By: HTSS_TR
What you are saying is either Pacific Power of Oregon is being duped by contractors or they are lying to the state regulator and the press ?

Thinking about this article a little more I am not so sure that the rate of increase of 0.1% from current power generator to renewable for 14 years is accurate and valid. I think if changing to renewable increases customer rate by 10-20% then it may be believable.

As far as I know most utility companies operate with cost plus in their markets. They need to comply with local regulations, if they are forced to replace coal power with renewable they have no choice but to comply.

Pacific Power clearly said that they didn't expect the rate of renewable is as low as it is now, at least from the bids they received. If they claim the increase is 0.1% but it turns out to be 30-50% what the regulators will tell them ? Rate payers will not be happy with false promise.


But they don't have a choice in the end. All the same types of claims and promises were made up here too and subsequently the "Global Adjustment" fee was worked into the bill to hide these costs under something suitably ambiguous. We (the rate payers) aren't happy, we aren't happy at all! Even the bloody Auditor General has been critical of it with a report that condemned the situation in the province and was able to show that Ontario rate payers are and have been over-paying for hydro by an obscene amount. Unfortunately, as with anything political, accountability and recourse are limited. Twelve years from now, nobody is going to hold Pacific Power to a lack of adherence to their projected rate changes. People may complain about it but nothing will happen.

The crazy part about some of this is the length of the contracts. Our local utility has a 20 year contract guaranteeing them 42c/KWh. So no matter the change in the market, they are covered. Other contracts (and perhaps this one, I don't have access to it) guarantee a minimum purchase amount and a minimum guaranteed payment per month, so even under producers or facilities that are down due to issues are rewarded a certain amount and those that are told not to produce due to demand issues are still compensated as well. These contracts were drafted in a way that appears to solely benefit the awarded and at potentially great expense to the utility and subsequently the rate payer, whose lap the end costs ultimately land in.

If I sound pessimistic it is because I have literally watched this unfold up here for the last ten years. I watch Ontario tax payers, myself included, spend close to 2 billion dollars on a gas plant that doesn't exist. I watched that heavily subsidized solar farm get installed. I subsequently watched half of it get ripped up and replaced only a short few years later. I've watched the wind turbines stand idle and yet more being installed. And I've watched as my hydro bill has more than doubled to pay for all this "free" energy.
 
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860M
In 2016, nearly 300 megawatts (MW) of electricity generating capacity is expected to come online from dams that did not previously have electric generating units, commonly referred to as nonpowered dams (NPDs). NPD capacity additions make up 92% of the 320 MW of planned hydroelectric capacity for 2016. Expected capacity additions at NPDs in 2016 are large compared to recent NPD additions, which totaled 126 megawatts (MW) over 2006–15, but relatively small compared with total U.S. hydroelectric capacity of nearly 80,000 MW as of April.

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The National Hydropower Association estimates that 3% of the nation's 80,000 dams currently generate electricity. Existing conventional hydroelectric generators in the United States provided 251 million megawatthours of electricity in 2015, or about 6% of annual total net generation. Unlike other forms of renewable-fueled electricity, such as solar and wind, hydroelectric capacity additions have been relatively modest in recent years. Also, about 1,000 MW of hydroelectric capacity has been decommissioned over the 2006–15 period, mainly through the removal of existing dams. New conventional hydroelectric generators may not be eligible for federal tax credits, unlike new wind and solar additions. Depending on the state, hydroelectric generation may not be eligible for compliance with state renewable portfolio standards or voluntary goals.

Although electric generating units have been installed at NPDs throughout the country, the Ohio River accounts for much of this activity. About 74% of all the new and planned NPD capacity additions from 2006 to 2016 occurred along the Ohio River. Many of the existing dams along the Ohio River that have been or will be converted to produce electricity are used to maintain navigable depths during periods of low water flow.

In a study of hydroelectric potential at NPD, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) estimated that as of 2012, NPDs had the potential to add 12,000 MW of additional generating capacity, with about 3,000 MW of capacity in the Ohio River region alone. Since then, four NPD projects have begun construction: Cannelton, Meldahl, and Smithland in Kentucky, and Willow Island in West Virginia. Once these projects are completed, the total hydroelectric capacity along the Ohio River will increase by 313 MW to a total of 554 MW. As a result of these NPD capacity additions, Kentucky and West Virginia will increase their hydroelectric capacities by roughly 32% and 15%, respectively, in 2016.

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Overkill is spot on. I have also watched very closely the renewable energy movement in Ontario right from the beginning. All sorts of wonderful promises were made and pretty much none of them came true. Australia seems to have followed a similar path with nearly identical results. The same tactics are being used in other places now. Cheap power, reduced to nearly zero emissions and job creation are being promised.
What gets me the most is that the creation of the carbon credit exchange was supposed to help in paying for these projects, but in the end it's the end user that pays for these crooks.

I'm sure some will dismiss what had happened in Ontario and Australia. After all what, do Canucks and Aussies know? US of A will surely get it right. Good luck, you will need it in spades.
 
Blackouts looming, California speeds battery deployment after Aliso Canyon gas leak

http://www.utilitydive.com/news/blac...canyon/424241/

If there is a silver lining to California’s massive Aliso Canyon methane leak, it could be for energy storage projects.

The leak has led to plans for the fast track authorization of two energy storage projects totaling 37.5 MW (150 MWh) that are being built by AES Corp. for San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E).

The projects would be put up in about six months, about a third of the time it would take to build a gas-fired power plant.

“In our world, this is nothing short of incredible,” Alex Morris, director of policy and regulatory affairs at the California Energy Storage Alliance, said.

The project is a demonstration of the “rapid procurement potential” of energy storage, said Matt Roberts, executive director of the Energy Storage Association. It also shows that given the right mix of policies and circumstances, batteries can serve major bulk power system needs typically reserved for traditional power plants.
 
Renewable energy tends not to be "dispatchable" so that makes it fairly low value stuff. On the other hand it tends to have a siting advantage over conventional.

I wish more was being done with combined heat and power systems. 80% thermal efficiency is common and at 250kw loads and above they are cheaper overall more environmentally benign than solar.
 
If it doesn't work as planned, which is most likely what will happen they will just build another bike lanes to appease the lemmings while the traffic continues to build up.
 
Originally Posted By: SHOZ
The leak has led to plans for the fast track authorization of two energy storage projects totaling 37.5 MW (150 MWh) that are being built by AES Corp. for San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E).

The projects would be put up in about six months, about a third of the time it would take to build a gas-fired power plant.

“In our world, this is nothing short of incredible,” Alex Morris, director of policy and regulatory affairs at the California Energy Storage Alliance, said.

The project is a demonstration of the “rapid procurement potential” of energy storage, said Matt Roberts, executive director of the Energy Storage Association. It also shows that given the right mix of policies and circumstances, batteries can serve major bulk power system needs typically reserved for traditional power plants.


Problem is that they are batteries, not generators, so theyneed to be charged with power that's actually generated somewhere else...funny in other threads the requirement for storage have been poo-poohed (not by you).

Ca's peak demand is 60,000MW, so the 150MWh of batteries can provide 9 seconds of peak coverage....yeah, I know that they are contributors, but it's worth getting the scale out there.

As per my Cost of storage link from a few weeks ago, Li Ion has a round trip charge/discharge cost of $250/MWh (25c/KKWh), even if the energy charging them was free...making them very expensive MWhs...about 6 times the actual wholesale price, so add in the retail margins.

Ca is mandating renewables, and as per my previous posts, renewables, with their capacity factors in the mid 20s need storage...you need 4 times the nameplate rating, and storage sufficient to ride through.

http://www.aiche.org/chenected/2016/05/californias-newest-grid-storage-batteries-not-included

Turning off (curtailing) renewables, while mandating more of them makes zero sense...the transition has to be planned and managed.
 
It seems to me that batteries would be the most expensive way to store energy.

Steam, molten salt, compressed air, pumped storage and others would be nice ways to do it as well.

Crack water into hydrogen off peak, burn it on peak

There seems to be some very limited imagination going on. Maybe I'm going to have to figure this out. Patent pending.
 
Last edited:
turtlevette,
here's some data that I linked to a few weekd back showing the lifecycle costs of a bunch of different storage regimes.

http://www.bobistheoilguy.com/forums/ubbthreads.php/topics/4141423/Levelised_Cost_of_Energy_Stora

Again, Li Ion in stationary applications seems a waste, not just of dollars.

One of my faves is decoupling Gas turbines, and storing compressed air in salt caverns off peak, then using it for combustion air in the turbine end come peak...get way more bang for your buck, and half the turbine output isn't used to spin the compressor...
 
Originally Posted By: Jarlaxle
The elephant in the room is, of course, nuclear power.


Breeder reactors make free fuel. But people are scared of any kind of nuke.
 
Originally Posted By: Jarlaxle
The elephant in the room is, of course, nuclear power.


There is another elephant in the room, Hydroelectric. Most states don't consider it renewable energy.

Here's an article that gives a pretty even handed look at why not:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/201407101...dered-renewable

Quote:
The rush to establish RPSs seems to be born of social pressures and sincere environmental concerns at the state level. Yet a 2008 Harvard study found that: the policy appears to address global issues of sustainability and climate change more than localized pollution concerns, and hence is not an obvious state issue.

Underlying those motivators is politics and money. A comprehensive research paper published in 2010 in The Energy Journal, (Vol. 31, No. 3.) entitled “Why Do States Adopt Renewable Portfolio Standards?” provides great insight to the real motives behind the now popular RPS. They conclude: RPS adoption seems to be driven more by political ideology and private interests than by local environmental and employment benefits, raising questions as to when environmental federalism serves the public interest.


Quote:
The Manhattan Institute continued their assessment in stating that the RPS is essentially a “de facto carbon-reduction tax” that is straining state economies by leading to higher utility bills for consumers. They report that coal “dependant states” with an active RPS has lead to increases in such costs by “54.2 percent between 2001 and 2010, more than twice the average increase experienced by seven other coal-dependent states without mandates.”



Quote:
The Consequences for the Rest of Us

Where does hydroelectric power fit in all of this? No where. Including hydropower in an RPS would lessen the impact of any benchmark on wind energy development. Speaking in relative terms, hydropower is not being allowed to compete with wind energy for financial reasons, not environmental concerns. Even with massive tax credits to the wind generating industry, hydropower is still the less expensive energy source of the two in the near term.


Ed
 
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Ed.

We have five hydro electric dams around here that have been reliably making power for around the century mark. I'm sure many residents don't even know they are there. HE is a well established and proven method of reliable baseload generation.
 
Evil, coal producing Kentucky also has a bunch of hydro plants. We have some decent sized lakes and more navigable inland water than any other state in the lower 48, but no natural lakes. Many of ours are 1930s TVA projects, while some are older and some are newer. Almost every one of them has a few turbines on the dam, and they too have been reliably running for 70+ years in many cases.

Granted, as per the EIA, they only supply 4% of our state's power needs, but it's still something https://www.eia.gov/state/analysis.cfm?sid=KY
 
Can we phase out coal ? Depending on how much you want to spend and how long you're talking about, maybe.


But answer THIS - why do you WANT to ? WHY is that so important ?


A huge faction of people in the US have decided that coal is evil, and it's use must be prohibited at any cost.

This seems to be based almost entirely on the idea that the places where coal is mined are quite scenic.


In every other corner of the globe, they are going after coal as hard as they can - especially China. They are doing the Industrial Revolution 200 years later, with off-the-shelf technology, slave labor and a totalitarian government. They are doing very well for themselves.

Meanwhile, the US is to sit on MOUNTAINS of an important, valuable international resource, because some folks think places like West Virginia should be "scenic attractions" that they can enjoy driving through, rather than viable communities, with real jobs, in real industries.
 
Originally Posted By: milkboy

Can we phase out coal ? Depending on how much you want to spend and how long you're talking about, maybe.


But answer THIS - why do you WANT to ? WHY is that so important ?


A huge faction of people in the US have decided that coal is evil, and it's use must be prohibited at any cost.

This seems to be based almost entirely on the idea that the places where coal is mined are quite scenic.


In every other corner of the globe, they are going after coal as hard as they can - especially China. They are doing the Industrial Revolution 200 years later, with off-the-shelf technology, slave labor and a totalitarian government. They are doing very well for themselves.

Meanwhile, the US is to sit on MOUNTAINS of an important, valuable international resource, because some folks think places like West Virginia should be "scenic attractions" that they can enjoy driving through, rather than viable communities, with real jobs, in real industries.

Coal has a lot more drawbacks that ruining the scenic mountains of West Virginia.

Pollution of the atmosphere and waste of toxic metals and ash.
 
Originally Posted By: SHOZ
Originally Posted By: milkboy

Can we phase out coal ? Depending on how much you want to spend and how long you're talking about, maybe.


But answer THIS - why do you WANT to ? WHY is that so important ?


A huge faction of people in the US have decided that coal is evil, and it's use must be prohibited at any cost.

This seems to be based almost entirely on the idea that the places where coal is mined are quite scenic.


In every other corner of the globe, they are going after coal as hard as they can - especially China. They are doing the Industrial Revolution 200 years later, with off-the-shelf technology, slave labor and a totalitarian government. They are doing very well for themselves.

Meanwhile, the US is to sit on MOUNTAINS of an important, valuable international resource, because some folks think places like West Virginia should be "scenic attractions" that they can enjoy driving through, rather than viable communities, with real jobs, in real industries.

Coal has a lot more drawbacks that ruining the scenic mountains of West Virginia.

Pollution of the atmosphere and waste of toxic metals and ash.


both posts make good points.
money should be put into developing better "scrubber" technology,to make emissions reasonably clean, so coal can be used. I recently read a few articles about this, and there are 120 - 150 YEAR supply of coal in north America.it's moronic to leave this in the ground -- as well, it's cheap.120 -150 YEARS !!!

before any tree hugging whalesavers start to rag on me -- I repeat-- make it reasonably clean to use, and 120 - 150 YEAR supply.any thinking person knows that this, at some point, should be used.but, it's not politically correct to say such things.too bad.

over time,while coal is being used, new technologies would be developed, and existing ones improved -- while using a cheap source of power.it's win-win.
good post, milkboy.
 
Ash is the big problem now. It has been ignored by generators on the east coast for decades and now they have to do something about it.
 
Originally Posted By: SHOZ
Ash is the big problem now. It has been ignored by generators on the east coast for decades and now they have to do something about it.


Have told you previously that the industry will make it all disappear in the next 20-30 years.

If the EPA stop meddling with the classification and what can legally be done with it.
 
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