Peak Auto Sales; New Car Sales Are Declining

[Wrenchturner44]

Interesting video from Autoline about what is happening to the auto industry. I know this trend has happened before earlier in the 20th century due to both economic and "survival of the fittest" phenomenons of the industry as a whole. But this new trend does not bode well for the financials of this business long term.

 

[JHZR2]

Doom and gloom. Cars have become obscenely expensive for what they are, repairs too… and dare you look at one funny in an accident, it’s likely to get totaled. Longer lasting used cars, coupled with these issues drive people to used. Keeping them longer. How does the average age of vehicles on the road, and the average inflation adjusted new car price correlate?

 

[pbm]

I agree about the obscene costs of new vehicles. A lot of it has to do with ever increasing 'technology' (gadgetry in many cases). I think there is a market for simpler and cheaper vehicles (like the Dacia Duster that a European BITOGer posted about a few weeks back.)..Also, I've read that Gen Z (or whatever the latest Gen is called) aren't as into cars as previous generations.

 

[bullwinkle]

Autoline refers to new “car” sales-I know he means new “vehicle” sales, but how many people can afford, or even need, a $50K plus new truck or SUV?? Not talking commercial sales. That’s a big part of the issue-virtually NO domestic cars available, and many of the import cars have very, very bad reliability records.

 

[supton]

Hey, I did my part in the 21st century, bought several new cars.

I’d buy another one, but… too darn expensive.

I’m also turning into a luddite. While I have grown to really like my backup camera, that’s about the good use of the LCD display in my car. Vast majority of my driving does not need maps… thankfully I still have knobs and buttons for HVAC.

I realize that LCD’s and much of this tech is not expensive when mass produced, and probably not what is driving the purchase price—but they sure have the possiblity of being major repair cost drivers. Low rate of failure times high repair cost if it fails = still a hurting wallet. A commonly occurring failure (wearout on belts, hoses, coolant, bearings of various kinds) can have that cost spread out over years while being reasonably “cheap”, while a sudden failure of a high dollar item is, well, sudden.

 

[MrHorspwer]

Here's another video from Autoline about the industry hitting "Peak Auto".

It's from 6 years ago.

 

[Dave Hess]

Lots of people are struggling financially.

Economy is propped up by credit cards and Buy Now Pay Later credit.

Repo Man very busy and will get busier in the near future.

 

[Torrid]

Autoline refers to new “car” sales-I know he means new “vehicle” sales, but how many people can afford, or even need, a $50K plus new truck or SUV?? Not talking commercial sales. That’s a big part of the issue-virtually NO domestic cars available, and many of the import cars have very, very bad reliability records.

Emissions standards are to blame. It’s easier to meet light truck standards than it is to meet car standards, yet many still want some luxury and technology. That massively balloons the cost of these SUVs. I just want a good fun yet fuel efficient car with the latest tech, some nice seats, and a place to put my gear. That guides me towards a performance hatchback. There’s not a US made option that fits that bill anymore. At one time that would have been a Focus RS, but those are gone.

 

[jeepman3071]

Also, I've read that Gen Z (or whatever the latest Gen is called) aren't as into cars as previous generations.

They can't afford them. I work on a college campus, and have quite a few student workers. A few commute, and most live on campus. The ones who commute are on long-term car loans for either new vehicles their parents helped them purchase, or used vehicles, some of them quite old and breaking down. Those who are into cars are overwhelmed by the amount of debt they are currently in, their rent if they live off campus, etc. A car is a long way off from their priorities, and my student workers are probably some of the higher paid ones on campus working in Tech. I disagree with the whole "things have always been expensive and younger kids are lazy" mentality. Many of these kids are hard workers, harder than I worked in college for sure, and while I was in college I could afford a paid-for decent vehicle on a part-time job wage.

 

[CarDoc66]

Insane pricing along with higher interest. Wait for the repo’s that are inevitable……one thousand dollar truck payments are not uncommon.
The car makers have gotten too greedy. There is little to no margin from invoice to window sticker (thus turning many dealers greedy with add ons and mark ups). Of they don’t have the volume they will try and make it up by catching a buyer asleep and “working them over”.
My last purchase was a two year old Tacoma 4x4. It was originally listed for 40,000 usd. New it was barely 41k. I sat tight and eventually the selling VW dealer dropped the price to 34,500. Cargurus sent me a text telling me the price had dropped…..I literally left work and drove up there when I got the text. It was on the lot for 97 days so they wanted it gone. I gave the them a 42% down payment and the finance office tried to sneak an 8% loan under my nose (my bank was going to give me 4.75). I called out the finance guy and told he he better get me near 5% or I was going to pay cash……I told him you can make some money off me but my credit is an 840 and you won’t make a dime if you do not work with me. He was whining they were loosing money….not my problem you advertised it for that price so honor it or I walk in with cash. Then he told me the bank said I had to buy and extended warranty becuase the truck was out of basic warranty ( still had plenty of powertrain coverage).
That was the last straw, I walked in with a cashier check a day later and took the truck uncleaned and detailed it myself.

 

[M1Accord]

Autoline refers to new “car” sales-I know he means new “vehicle” sales, but how many people can afford, or even need, a $50K plus new truck or SUV?? Not talking commercial sales. That’s a big part of the issue-virtually NO domestic cars available, and many of the import cars have very, very bad reliability records.

Where do you find $50k truck and SUV? That would be blackest Friday sale in these parts.

 

[eljefino]

BITOG: Generation Y should be frugal.
Also BITOG: Like this though?

I get a real vibe that cars are like legos under the skin. Same heater control boxes (save for form factor mods). Same power window/ lock motors. Same key fobs. So of course all this electronic junk is getting forced even on stripper econoboxes.

The Maverick/ Bronco is the only exciting new car to come out in the last 5+ years that intends to meet a budget. The Trax is a blob-shaped punt with the same motivation. Heck, they tried.

 

[bullwinkle]

Where do you find $50k truck and SUV? That would be blackest Friday sale in these parts.

Stripper pickup, tiny plastic GM SUV (Trax, Traverse, Equinox).

 

[CKN]

Where do you find $50k truck and SUV? That would be blackest Friday sale in these parts.

You can buy buy a Silverado Custom trim or a Ford F-150 XL Crew Cabs for 50K or a little less. They are readily available.

 

[14.1 Grms]

Part of the problem with vehicle prices is that the trim packages cost more than the actual vehicle itself.

Example: 2024 F-150, XL, is $33k on the Ford website. Limited version of the same truck is $83k. You can literally buy two base-model trucks for less than the cost of one loaded truck - how is it that the add-ons for the Limited version are literally more than an entire separate truck?

And this tracks across all of the manufacturers and their trim packages. Toss in the fact that almost invariably you have to add an entire trim level to get one option (LED headlights - looking at you, Ford), and that base model minimum cost goes away real quick.

 

[redhat]

Possibly some buyers, whom are like the collective majority on here who wrench their own items, own maintenance, and keep rides for a while; are just not pleased with the options/quality they're seeing out of auto manufacturers.

Whilst I understand from the manufacturing, capability, design and financial standpoint that an "integrated" vehicle might make more sense... i.e. vehicles where every human interface is essentially a remote all going back to a PCM/ECM/BCM, etc or where every system is processed on single or only a few controllers... this may turn others off. There is something to be said about a radio just being a radio or your HVAC controls are all within the microprocessor in that panel.

At least it does for me. Maybe others share this same modularity sentiment. This also could be said for the "needing a Limited trim" for the high-end lights or subwoofer-equipped stereo. Would love to see the ability to pick individual options if they could be added ad-hoc and supported appropriately from the vehicle network side of things. This is what I mean by modularity.

Would love to have a base model truck with heated leather (or even heated cloth) seats, a reasonable 7-9" screen for navigation/CarPlay, subwoofer stereo, PW/PL and good analog gauges with full instrumentation. Also, man I miss column shift from newer high-end trucks. No need to take up my center console storage space with a stupid shifter. Put it on the column.

I find as I get older the heated seats is less for warmth and more for soothing back pain.

 

[CT Rob]

Still on the fence about trading my 17 Tundra for a 24 Forester Wilderness. Just dont have the need for a 4door truck .Dont haul or tow anything .I can just about everything with the Forester that i do with the truck.

 

[The Farmer]

Still on the fence about trading my 17 Tundra for a 24 Forester Wilderness.

Don't do it brother. That beautiful truck will outlast just about anything.

 

[CT Rob]

Don't do it brother. That beautiful truck will outlast just about anything.

I know. Its got 80K on it and have had Zero problems with it. 2 sets of tires and 1 full set of 4 wheel brakes is all. Other than being attacked by 2 deer and tree limbs lol,its been a great truck.

 

[loneryder]

I knew their sales were down by the current tv commercials. They are offering deals we’ve not seen since before covid. Even Toyota is offering deals on the Corolla.