Misleading car sales numbers(delivery to dealers)

[urchin]

I was watching CNBC and one of the anchors indicated that the number of total US cars sales that are being used these days
of around 13 million units ..ARE BASED ON UNITS DELIVERED TO THE DEALER .....NOT THOSE ACTUALLY SOLD TO END CUSTOMERS!!!!

I always thought that number of 13 million or so they have been throwing around sounded very optimistic, so now we know.

I wonder what the ACTUAL number of sold units to end customers is?

 

[sasilverbullet]

Depends on the car, some models sit on their lots for a long time, some move quickly. I wonder where that info is?

 

[cchase]

Why do you consider that figure to be misleading? Is there a junkyard of new cars that don't sell I don't know about?

 

[eljefino]

Off topic slightly, but the demo Volts at chevy dealers are coming up for sale. Supposedly they're trying to sell 10k by the end of the year, and (maybe) GM figures the cars will do more good being seen on the road than in a lot.

 

[jaj]

There were accounting scandals in the 1990's caused by the practice of reporting factory shipments as "sales" while distribution warehouses are filling up with more and more product that wasn't selling to consumers. It's called "channel stuffing" and it's illegal. Presumably there's a strong enough correlation between shipments to dealers and dealer deliveries that the auditors (and the SEC) let the car companies report that way.

 

[4x4chevydude]

Supposedly today there were suppose to be great deals at dealers to get rid of the old stock, I ddint really notice anything special.

 

[urchin]

Originally Posted By: jaj
There were accounting scandals in the 1990's caused by the practice of reporting factory shipments as "sales" while distribution warehouses are filling up with more and more product that wasn't selling to consumers. It's called "channel stuffing" and it's illegal. Presumably there's a strong enough correlation between shipments to dealers and dealer deliveries that the auditors (and the SEC) let the car companies report that way.


Ha, the good ole SEC..Now there is a group you can trust.

 

[LS2JSTS]

LOL...Talk about a non issue.

The larger number that is reported each month represents the seasonally adjusted figure for total sales, it's a projection for the year based on the monthly sales up too that date, it's a guestimate.

The monthly figures are actual sales each month...and it's easily explained why they allow the manufacturers to use the numbers shipped to the dealerships...and thats because the dealerships actually buy the cars from the manufacturer. The manufacturer may finance the cars on the dealer lot, many finance their floorplans through private banks, the manufacturers or their own funds. But the bottom line truth of the matter is when a manufacturer ships a car to a dealership that is ONE SOLD UNIT, the dealer bought it from the manufacturer. The manufacturers DO NOT own the thousands of cars sitting on dealer lots, the dealers do. The manufacturer can have an interest in the cars if they financed the dealer floorplan but that doesn't imply ownership unless the terms of the financing are breached.

 

[LS2JSTS]

Originally Posted By: urchin
... so now we know.


Speak for yourself thank you.

Some of us around here already have a complete understanding of how these numbers are compiled. Based on your previous conspiracy claims surrounding these numbers and your dealership allotment comments in that thread, I'm pretty confident you STILL dont get it.

 

[caravanmike]

Originally Posted By: cchase
Why do you consider that figure to be misleading? Is there a junkyard of new cars that don't sell I don't know about?

+1

 

[fdcg27]

This has always been the case.
Dealers don't typically buy with financing cars they can't move, so it's pretty much irrelevant.
Manufacturers report shipments to dealers, not retail sales, and it has ever been thus.
Since dealers don't have an economic death wish, sales to dealers track pretty well with retail sales.

 

[AuthorEditor]

So for those in the know, how do fleet sales and sales to the government figure in? Do they show up in these numbers sold to dealers? I would be more curious as to retail sales to individuals, because I know in the past some of the huge numbers attributed to certain models were because they were favorites of rental fleets, just like Crown Vic numbers were inflated by all of them going to police departments. For example, the New York City police have around 9000 police cars.

 

[BGK]

The only disadvantage to fleet sales or rental car sales is the reduced margins to the dealer that sells them originally, but rentals usually get sold within a year to a retail customer. I work for the biggest auto dealer group in the US (AutoNation) and we only talk about unit sales to OUR customers. Due to shortages of used cars (pushing prices up) and a general lax market for high end models (I sell BMW) sales are going nowhere, even in an extremely prestige driven market area. Smart buyers lease cars when new (at least if they are high line and not kept more than 4 years) and buy cars when used. Remember, used car sales don't mean much to the mfg, except for parts biz in future.

 

[javacontour]

Originally Posted By: urchin


I wonder what the ACTUAL number of sold units to end customers is?


You don't understand. The dealership IS the end customer from the perspective of the car maker.

The private owner is a customer of the dealer NOT the car maker.

Therefore, this is a very accurate number.

Now what you also can look at to see if the car maker is stuffing the channel so to speak is days supply of a particular car.

If there is a 180 day supply, the dealers are not able to move the metal. I don't know what the exact figures are, but there comes a point where X days supply means they are building them faster than they can find buyers at the current price.

 

[LS2JSTS]

Correct...and the days supply data is readily available. I have a sub with Wards Auto and every month they publish the days supply by Company, by Region, by Nameplate...other companies provide the same service, and the manufacturers themselves self report supply numbers.

Unfortunately my Wards data is all copyrighted stuff and I cant link to it or convey it in large part on this forum. I can say at the end of October 2011 the industry average supply was right around 60 days. There were only two companies with a supply over 100 days and they were Saab and Mitsubishi.