Where's the dude that that called a market bottom about a week ago in a separate thread? I remember the display name, but won't post it. Safe to say he shouldn't quit his day job.
Stock market!!!!
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Originally Posted by JohnnyJohnson
Originally Posted by miden851
I put my 20% cash in the market today thru my 401K into funds at work; It is very hard to time markets so I think now it is a good time to gradually come back to markets...
You will continue to see some up and down in the market. Nothing has changed to make me believe we are looking at much upturn in the near future. But we can't talk about it here!
No but if anyone gets in on the lower side of the equation then that's good. Trying to time the low point is folly.
Originally Posted by miden851
I put my 20% cash in the market today thru my 401K into funds at work; It is very hard to time markets so I think now it is a good time to gradually come back to markets...
You will continue to see some up and down in the market. Nothing has changed to make me believe we are looking at much upturn in the near future. But we can't talk about it here!
No but if anyone gets in on the lower side of the equation then that's good. Trying to time the low point is folly.
Originally Posted by Sayjac
Where's the dude that that called a market bottom about a week ago in a separate thread? I remember the display name, but won't post it. Safe to say he shouldn't quit his day job.
Agreed
Where's the dude that that called a market bottom about a week ago in a separate thread? I remember the display name, but won't post it. Safe to say he shouldn't quit his day job.
Agreed
Originally Posted by ZeeOSix
Originally Posted by Mr Nice
Originally Posted by ZeeOSix
Originally Posted by JOD
Still have my eye on the Lazy B... I'm a buy and hold for 5 years if Boeing hits $80. The only way that's not a deal is if they fold completely, which I do not believe the gub'ment will allow to happen.
Boeing has lots more going on besides commercial aircraft production, it's a pretty diversified company. Boeing will get back like many other companies when this all gets over the hump (who knows how long that will be though), because the world can't operate without people or products flying all over the place.
Don't forget all the important military contracts and national defense, satellites, etc....
Exactly ... that's what I meant by it's "pretty diversified".
https://www.boeing.com/company/about-bds/
Yeah, they're the country's largest exporter, and one our largest employers (especially in terms of gross wages paid). I really don't think we're at the bottom yet for them, but there are a lot of reasons they'll be kept around, IMO. There's risk in anything in a market like this, but as far as them rebounding I think it's really a matter of "how much and how quickly", not "if". I wouldn't invest more than I could afford to lose (like any investment, IMO), and I wouldn't count on an immediate payback, but BA is definitely on a list of about 10 stocks I'm eying closely. I'll pile the rest into index funds when I feel like we're close to the floor. I think we have a way to go...
Originally Posted by Mr Nice
Originally Posted by ZeeOSix
Originally Posted by JOD
Still have my eye on the Lazy B... I'm a buy and hold for 5 years if Boeing hits $80. The only way that's not a deal is if they fold completely, which I do not believe the gub'ment will allow to happen.
Boeing has lots more going on besides commercial aircraft production, it's a pretty diversified company. Boeing will get back like many other companies when this all gets over the hump (who knows how long that will be though), because the world can't operate without people or products flying all over the place.
Don't forget all the important military contracts and national defense, satellites, etc....
Exactly ... that's what I meant by it's "pretty diversified".
https://www.boeing.com/company/about-bds/
Yeah, they're the country's largest exporter, and one our largest employers (especially in terms of gross wages paid). I really don't think we're at the bottom yet for them, but there are a lot of reasons they'll be kept around, IMO. There's risk in anything in a market like this, but as far as them rebounding I think it's really a matter of "how much and how quickly", not "if". I wouldn't invest more than I could afford to lose (like any investment, IMO), and I wouldn't count on an immediate payback, but BA is definitely on a list of about 10 stocks I'm eying closely. I'll pile the rest into index funds when I feel like we're close to the floor. I think we have a way to go...
I foolishly sold all my Boeing stock when the new 787 started having problems with the batteries and fires. Boeing didn't take a big hit that I was expecting due to world wide grounding. Luckily I bought Amazon with that lump sum cash.
I'm also keeping my eyes on Boeing and know the future 5-10 year timeframe will be much better than today. 737MAX problems will be resolved.
I'm also keeping my eyes on Boeing and know the future 5-10 year timeframe will be much better than today. 737MAX problems will be resolved.
Originally Posted by PimTac
No but if anyone gets in on the lower side of the equation then that's good. Trying to time the low point is folly.
We disagree on a lot of things, but we can agree on this point, 100%. It's just like timing the peak. I got out a bit before it--because I wasn't greedy. Getting back in, I'll use the same calculus: don't be too greedy and try and time it exactly.
One thing I will say though is that I think we'll be looking at a reasonably long floor vs. a v-dip--particularly in the aggregate market. There's going to be terrible economic news coming for a while, and the problems are absolutely going to get worse before they get better. I don't see how any reasonable person could think otherwise. I think that will make for a longer window to get in, along with a longer window to realize some real gains. I think for younger folks in particular this presents massive opportunity.
No but if anyone gets in on the lower side of the equation then that's good. Trying to time the low point is folly.
We disagree on a lot of things, but we can agree on this point, 100%. It's just like timing the peak. I got out a bit before it--because I wasn't greedy. Getting back in, I'll use the same calculus: don't be too greedy and try and time it exactly.
One thing I will say though is that I think we'll be looking at a reasonably long floor vs. a v-dip--particularly in the aggregate market. There's going to be terrible economic news coming for a while, and the problems are absolutely going to get worse before they get better. I don't see how any reasonable person could think otherwise. I think that will make for a longer window to get in, along with a longer window to realize some real gains. I think for younger folks in particular this presents massive opportunity.
I expect the market to be rough for at least 2 months; perhaps then we might see the beginnings of stability.
I never thought the Dow would break 21,000; not even close.
The last 3 year's earnings are pretty much erased.
My portfolio is down a lot in dollar value; I understand that's a luxury problem.
Best of luck to everyone.
I never thought the Dow would break 21,000; not even close.
The last 3 year's earnings are pretty much erased.
My portfolio is down a lot in dollar value; I understand that's a luxury problem.
Best of luck to everyone.
Originally Posted by ZZman
Many of these companies that bought back stock and paid out to shareholders should have saved up for a downturn.
no argument here. There were policies put in place that encouraged that behavior though, and this is the result...
I'm not making an argument that Boeing should be bailed out, mind you. I can see arguments either way. I just think it's almost given that they will be.
Many of these companies that bought back stock and paid out to shareholders should have saved up for a downturn.
no argument here. There were policies put in place that encouraged that behavior though, and this is the result...
I'm not making an argument that Boeing should be bailed out, mind you. I can see arguments either way. I just think it's almost given that they will be.
Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
I expect the market to be rough for at least 2 months; perhaps then we might see the beginnings of stability.
I never thought the Dow would break 21,000; not even close.
The last 3 year's earnings are pretty much erased.
A chart to go along with those comments, for some perspective.
![[Linked Image]](https://www.bobistheoilguy.com/forums/attachments/usergals/2020/03/full-37311-42401-dow_chart_last_3_years.jpg "[Linked Image]")
I expect the market to be rough for at least 2 months; perhaps then we might see the beginnings of stability.
I never thought the Dow would break 21,000; not even close.
The last 3 year's earnings are pretty much erased.
A chart to go along with those comments, for some perspective.
Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
I expect the market to be rough for at least 2 months; perhaps then we might see the beginnings of stability.
I never thought the Dow would break 21,000; not even close.
The last 3 year's earnings are pretty much erased.
My portfolio is down a lot in dollar value; I understand that's a luxury problem.
Best of luck to everyone.
How is your portfolio invested ?
Just curious of your asset allocation ....
I expect the market to be rough for at least 2 months; perhaps then we might see the beginnings of stability.
I never thought the Dow would break 21,000; not even close.
The last 3 year's earnings are pretty much erased.
My portfolio is down a lot in dollar value; I understand that's a luxury problem.
Best of luck to everyone.
How is your portfolio invested ?
Just curious of your asset allocation ....
Originally Posted by Sayjac
Where's the dude that that called a market bottom about a week ago in a separate thread? I remember the display name, but won't post it. Safe to say he shouldn't quit his day job.
Yeah, he was all in @ like 5k pts ago..*facepalm*
There will be a rebound..at some point. But both Goldman and Schwab have said we haven't seen the worst (bottom) yet... and I'm inclined to agree. But if you have 20 or more years before retirement, there are deals to be had.
Remember what Buffet says, it's not timing the market.. it's time in the market.
Where's the dude that that called a market bottom about a week ago in a separate thread? I remember the display name, but won't post it. Safe to say he shouldn't quit his day job.
Yeah, he was all in @ like 5k pts ago..*facepalm*
There will be a rebound..at some point. But both Goldman and Schwab have said we haven't seen the worst (bottom) yet... and I'm inclined to agree. But if you have 20 or more years before retirement, there are deals to be had.
Remember what Buffet says, it's not timing the market.. it's time in the market.
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Originally Posted by Sayjac
Where's the dude that that called a market bottom about a week ago in a separate thread? I remember the display name, but won't post it. Safe to say he shouldn't quit his day job.
At every single dip, there are folks spouting off "time to buy!". Those are the same folks who were simply unable or unwilling to look at the state of the world. I think the bottom line is that those who ignored the seriousness of external influences are the same folks who got caught with their pants down.
Where's the dude that that called a market bottom about a week ago in a separate thread? I remember the display name, but won't post it. Safe to say he shouldn't quit his day job.
At every single dip, there are folks spouting off "time to buy!". Those are the same folks who were simply unable or unwilling to look at the state of the world. I think the bottom line is that those who ignored the seriousness of external influences are the same folks who got caught with their pants down.
Originally Posted by PimTac
Trying to time the low point is folly.
I agree. Almost no one can capture "the point" exactly.
What you can do is invest when the VIX skyrockets to the moon, and stocks are way, way off their high points.
Panics are usually great buying opportunities.
Trying to time the low point is folly.
I agree. Almost no one can capture "the point" exactly.
What you can do is invest when the VIX skyrockets to the moon, and stocks are way, way off their high points.
Panics are usually great buying opportunities.
Originally Posted by Mad_Hatter
Remember what Buffet says, it's not timing the market.. it's time in the market.
Thats right. he also said "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful".
Remember what Buffet says, it's not timing the market.. it's time in the market.
Thats right. he also said "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful".
My credit union has been changing all their rates about every 3-4 days lately. Checking account interest went down to 0.01% and savings account down to 0.05%. It wasn't much before, but it was cut down by about 50%-80% of what it was. Hopefully it won't go negative.
Originally Posted by Mr Nice
Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
I expect the market to be rough for at least 2 months; perhaps then we might see the beginnings of stability.
I never thought the Dow would break 21,000; not even close.
The last 3 year's earnings are pretty much erased.
My portfolio is down a lot in dollar value; I understand that's a luxury problem.
Best of luck to everyone.
How is your portfolio invested ?
Just curious of your asset allocation ....
No need to talk dollar values, but here is a high level breakdown:
My advisers are Schwab Private Client; you qualify with a $1M investment.
I have most in pretty conservative funds; I basically let Schwab run this. Very broad.
The goal of the Private Client is, if I lose half of what I have, I still have more than enough to live on for the rest of my life.
And hopefully put some kids through college and give them a fair start. I graduated at 40; things got better after I joined AA at the age of 33.
The next part is high tech, mainly Lam Research (LRCX) where I worked for about 22 years.
I was part of the golden handcuffs group. It was $340 a few weeks ago; today it is under $200. Ouch.
Schwab yells at me about this, but I tell them too bad. Having a ton of LRCX is a great problem to have.
Big paper loss here, as you might guess. But these are mostly fully vested stock options.
I can tell you Lam Research has been very good to me.
To minimize my tax burden, I have a CA Muni Bond fund which is double tax free. This is a good option for me.
Remember, CA income tax is at least 10%.
There is a Fidelity annuity (not a "bad" one) and another 401K out there.
And cash. Cash is King. Especially right now.
My Silicon Valley properties are paid for. These are gold...
My living expenses are very low; I am one of the lucky ones.
And my girl. She has more than me...
And she's worth more than all the $$ in the world.
Finally, what am I gonna do?
Stay the course.
If you are balanced, this is the way to go.
Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
I expect the market to be rough for at least 2 months; perhaps then we might see the beginnings of stability.
I never thought the Dow would break 21,000; not even close.
The last 3 year's earnings are pretty much erased.
My portfolio is down a lot in dollar value; I understand that's a luxury problem.
Best of luck to everyone.
How is your portfolio invested ?
Just curious of your asset allocation ....
No need to talk dollar values, but here is a high level breakdown:
My advisers are Schwab Private Client; you qualify with a $1M investment.
I have most in pretty conservative funds; I basically let Schwab run this. Very broad.
The goal of the Private Client is, if I lose half of what I have, I still have more than enough to live on for the rest of my life.
And hopefully put some kids through college and give them a fair start. I graduated at 40; things got better after I joined AA at the age of 33.
The next part is high tech, mainly Lam Research (LRCX) where I worked for about 22 years.
I was part of the golden handcuffs group. It was $340 a few weeks ago; today it is under $200. Ouch.
Schwab yells at me about this, but I tell them too bad. Having a ton of LRCX is a great problem to have.
Big paper loss here, as you might guess. But these are mostly fully vested stock options.
I can tell you Lam Research has been very good to me.
To minimize my tax burden, I have a CA Muni Bond fund which is double tax free. This is a good option for me.
Remember, CA income tax is at least 10%.
There is a Fidelity annuity (not a "bad" one) and another 401K out there.
And cash. Cash is King. Especially right now.
My Silicon Valley properties are paid for. These are gold...
My living expenses are very low; I am one of the lucky ones.
And my girl. She has more than me...
And she's worth more than all the $$ in the world.
Finally, what am I gonna do?
Stay the course.
If you are balanced, this is the way to go.
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No bottom in place. We did hit the upper range of my initial target. Looks like we are a ways off. We should be getting a short term rally, soon. Again that will be sold into. It takes a long time to turn this especially with the angles we have. To many bulls still out there and people that are holding on which is problematic. We need panic selling to really kick in and we haven't seen that yet.
Agree with only speculate with what you are comfortable losing, speculation brings the greatest awards.
I disagree that cash is king, there is much value out there in solid, big cash flow institutions, the beat up bank sector is one of them, not sure if the bleeding is over yet but even if you bought in a bit too soon, big deal. When you have Wells Fargo trading at what was is 4 times earnings down from 11 times earnings before this virus scare. WFC is one example, they are all beaten up. I am only talking "safer" "bets" here, stocks that WILL always come back, not as much reward maybe but WILL come back. (maybe*L* only invest what you can lose) Granted earnings are going to take a hit but the stock is down 50% for that and built into the price, I doubt we will see a 50% hit in its profit ... something like WFC also pays a handsome dividend.
A great play for me was Walmart WMT Im up 20% (or more) and trading at its high right now. Im up 25% from March 2019 and actually bought more last week. Not sure if I would buy right now but I MAY on the dips.
None of these stocks will make you rich from a small investment but they are pretty safe investments that provide a nice return over time, maybe more so, when the market is going sideways, no ways or down.
Regardless of what I type, never invest more then you are willing to lose in specific stocks, high rewards cares high risk. For the typical person, simply pick some index funds which beat most stock funds. Actually in my 401K that is what I do and as I type this I am going to increase my contribution to the max.
Anything I say or anyone says about the market take with a grain of salt and research, for most, they are better off in funds and most funds find it hard to beat the simple index funds.
Many experts as I type this most likely have gone bankrupt others have not, no one knows if this virus scare will be a self defeating scare that drives us into a depression instead of the expected recession.
But it doesnt stop me because I invest what I can afford to lose even though I think I am on the right track here.
)
I disagree that cash is king, there is much value out there in solid, big cash flow institutions, the beat up bank sector is one of them, not sure if the bleeding is over yet but even if you bought in a bit too soon, big deal. When you have Wells Fargo trading at what was is 4 times earnings down from 11 times earnings before this virus scare. WFC is one example, they are all beaten up. I am only talking "safer" "bets" here, stocks that WILL always come back, not as much reward maybe but WILL come back. (maybe*L* only invest what you can lose) Granted earnings are going to take a hit but the stock is down 50% for that and built into the price, I doubt we will see a 50% hit in its profit ... something like WFC also pays a handsome dividend.
A great play for me was Walmart WMT Im up 20% (or more) and trading at its high right now. Im up 25% from March 2019 and actually bought more last week. Not sure if I would buy right now but I MAY on the dips.
None of these stocks will make you rich from a small investment but they are pretty safe investments that provide a nice return over time, maybe more so, when the market is going sideways, no ways or down.
Regardless of what I type, never invest more then you are willing to lose in specific stocks, high rewards cares high risk. For the typical person, simply pick some index funds which beat most stock funds. Actually in my 401K that is what I do and as I type this I am going to increase my contribution to the max.
Anything I say or anyone says about the market take with a grain of salt and research, for most, they are better off in funds and most funds find it hard to beat the simple index funds.
Many experts as I type this most likely have gone bankrupt others have not, no one knows if this virus scare will be a self defeating scare that drives us into a depression instead of the expected recession.
But it doesnt stop me because I invest what I can afford to lose even though I think I am on the right track here.
)
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17,777 is my number to slowly get back in.
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