Toyota CEO Statement on Future Market Share

[sloinker]

I think I will hitch the team up for a 4 hour ride to town. Hope the whale oil holds out in my lamp!

 

[SubieRubyRoo]

History, EV's are the alternative replacement choice for ICE vehicles now & in the past. Ad in the fact that the OEM's have been dabbling in electric cars for decades. The last two more so & the last ten years even more EV's offered/sold. Follow the trend. Will there be some sort of revolutionary alternative to EV's that are the majority offered I doubt it in my lifetime. The OEM's have basically hinted to us their path this & the next decade is electric. Toyota lagging to transition b/c they don't necessarily need to. They have the reputation of "reliability" that nets them good sales figures so they don't have a whole lot of incentive for a fast electric change up but they will eventually. I will say they better be prepared in case we get Chinese EV's in the US/CA.

Nobody “dabbles” in a marketable saleable good for decades, unless being forced or subsidized to do so. Shareholders don’t give away money for long periods even for supposedly amazing opportunities that never materialize.

Remove the taxpayer-funded incentives and EVs shrink to maybe 5% of the market; those will be people with access to only insanely cheap electricity or insanely expensive gasoline, or inner city dwellers with almost no driving distances. And I’m fine with that.

 

[burbguy82]

extreme cold; something that does not affect EVs at all.

not true

EVs have battery issues in extreme temps.

true

 

[burbguy82]

100% Agreed! This is why Gov't is best to incentivise but otherwise get out of the way!

Which incentivize costs taxpayers money.

The last plan "Cash for Clunkers" destroyed many good vehicles. Where did the cash come from? Me and you.

 

[burbguy82]

Remove the taxpayer-funded incentives and EVs shrink to maybe 5% of the market

More truth cannot be said on the subject

And I’m fine with that.

Sure, inner city dwellers would do good with EV.

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

I made the same assumption as you did that he was speaking of the world market.

We will certainly disagree on the red highlighted portion. After over 40 imminent climate crises claimed by the UN since the late 60s with the earth still spinning along its axis, greener than ever in recorded time, I lean toward a vastly different position. Same boat as digital currency; controlling the masses is how it appears to my noodle. We don't have to hash that out publicly. I respect your posts and if you want to banter back and forth we can but let's do that on PM if you'd like. I'm prone to getting into trouble!

Well unfortunately this is how the scientific process works. In any case it doesn't change "the why" although certain outlets have a financial incentive to generate outrage by suggesting otherwise.

 

[jeepman3071]

History, EV's are the alternative replacement choice for ICE vehicles now & in the past. Ad in the fact that the OEM's have been dabbling in electric cars for decades. The last two more so & the last ten years even more EV's offered/sold. Follow the trend. Will there be some sort of revolutionary alternative to EV's that are the majority offered I doubt it in my lifetime. The OEM's have basically hinted to us their path this & the next decade is electric. Toyota lagging to transition b/c they don't necessarily need to. They have the reputation of "reliability" that nets them good sales figures so they don't have a whole lot of incentive for a fast electric change up but they will eventually. I will say they better be prepared in case we get Chinese EV's in the US/CA.

I would 100% agree with you, if EVs were more convenient to use than ICE (same time to fuel up, less shortcomings). ICE cars replaced horses quickly because they had so many advantages, like a longer operating range, etc. EVs are a novelty for MOST of the population at this point in time. Everyone I know who owns one either charges at home, charges at work, or has a second ICE vehicle. Those three things are not options for everyone like fueling up a gas car is. Manufacturers are jumping on board because of government regulations, and also the carrot of eventual enormous profitability from less moving parts has been dangled in front of them.

Two major things are telling to me:
1. The fact that renting an EV from one of the major rental companies is an awful and inconvenient experience for most when it should be simple since they are all parked in the same place which should be utilized for charging.

2. I'm fighting with our local power company just to have solar installed on my house because of their local grid limitations.

 

[BLND1]

History, EV's are the alternative replacement choice for ICE vehicles now & in the past. Ad in the fact that the OEM's have been dabbling in electric cars for decades. The last two more so & the last ten years even more EV's offered/sold. Follow the trend. Will there be some sort of revolutionary alternative to EV's that are the majority offered I doubt it in my lifetime. The OEM's have basically hinted to us their path this & the next decade is electric. Toyota lagging to transition b/c they don't necessarily need to. They have the reputation of "reliability" that nets them good sales figures so they don't have a whole lot of incentive for a fast electric change up but they will eventually. I will say they better be prepared in case we get Chinese EV's in the US/CA.

History? New technology still struggling to gain a real market share without massive incentivizing and you point to history as your rationale.

That’s the most absurdly disconnected thing I’ve heard in a while.

 

[fantastic]

History? New technology still struggling to gain a real market share without massive incentivizing and you point to history as your rationale.

That’s the most absurdly disconnected thing I’ve heard in a while.

Show me where I said there could be no incentive's to get there... I'll be here waiting.

Incentive's do a couple of things

• They lower the cost of EVs, which helps more Americans afford them, and send a market signal to automakers.
• They drive demand for charging infrastructure, which in turn speeds up EV adoption.

However, that's not the only thing pushing buyers to EV.

• increased consumer interest, government policies, and buy-in from the auto industry.

History shows, As of March 2023, there were 40 BEV and 33 PHEV models were for sale in the U.S. – with more models from major automakers on the way. This list doesn't include a few previous models that were made.

From the BLS.gov
Chart 1. Electric vehicles share of car sales and stock, 2011–21

Year	Electric vehicle share of sales	Stock of electric vehicles
2011	0.17	22,000
2012	0.41	75,000
2013	0.74	172,000
2014	0.89	290,000
2015	0.78	400,000
2016	1.00	570,000
2017	1.20	760,000
2018	2.00	1,120,000
2019	2.10	1,450,000
2020	2.20	1,740,000
2021	4.60	2,020,000
Note: Electric vehicles include battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle models

History is showing an upward EV trend above & below.

Here's just GM's data alone out of the several EV OEM's that have similar plans for an EV future. Do you think they've all invested to not produce EV's? That would be "absurdly disconnected" for you to assume that.

Investment Facts:​

• GM will invest $35 billion globally in EV and AVs through 2025.
• $2.3 billion invested in a Lordstown, Ohio plant to mass-produce Ultium battery cells9 through the formation of Ultium Cells LLC, a joint venture with LG Energy Solution. The plant will create more than 1,100 new jobs.
• $2.3 billion invested in a Spring Hill, Tennessee facility through Ultium Cells LLC, to build its second battery cell manufacturing plant in the U.S. The plant will create 1,300 new jobs.
• $2.2 billion to retool Factory ZERO, formerly Detroit-Hamtramck. Factory ZERO is our first plant that is 100 percent devoted to EVs and once fully operational, it will create more than 2,200 jobs.
• $2 billion invested in the Spring Hill, Tennessee assembly plant in October 2020 to begin its transition to become our third vehicle manufacturing site to produce electric vehicles. The plant supports 3,200 jobs.
• $4 billion invested in the Orion Township, Michigan assembly plant to produce the Chevrolet Bolt EV, Bolt EUV, Cruise AV test vehicles, Chevrolet Silverado, and GMC Electric Sierra, bringing 2,350 new jobs. In total, the plant supports 3,450 jobs.
• $40M investment in Pontiac Stamping for the installation of Flexible Fabrication manufacturing to support future electric vehicles and various product applications.
• $28 million invested to expand GM’s battery testing lab in Warren, Michigan. It is the largest, most advanced battery test lab in America for over a decade.

Show me a historical trend that shows LESS EV sales or adoption over the last couple of years. You say using "History is the most absurdly disconnected thing I’ve heard in a while" but I'll be waiting for what you have to show us all here.

 

[97prizm]

I really dislike how it always seems to boil down to EV vs ICE. Both have benefits and both have lifestyles they suit well and visa versa. No one should be forced to buy either one is my main opinion.

Ron Paul already has said that if the USA as a whole has 10 percent of registered vehicles as ev's we will exceed the Tokyo Climate agreement. Governments want to enforce unfortunately. If we could get politicians that said buy what you want not you have to have ev's by a certain date. I'm still waiting for Congress to get rid of the 25 year import rules. (Thanks Mercedes and Ferrari).

 

[97prizm]

Which incentivize costs taxpayers money.

The last plan "Cash for Clunkers" destroyed many good vehicles. Where did the cash come from? Me and you.

Yeah 690,000 vehicles were junked in the USA not sure about Europe. The vast majority were perfectly fine for commuting or for reliable transportation. The unfortunate caveat was that they had to be running and titled.

 

[fantastic]

Ron Paul already has said that if the USA as a whole has 10 percent of registered vehicles as ev's we will exceed the Tokyo Climate agreement. Governments want to enforce unfortunately. If we could get politicians that said buy what you want not you have to have ev's by a certain date. I'm still waiting for Congress to get rid of the 25 year import rules. (Thanks Mercedes and Ferrari).

Yeah 690,000 vehicles were junked in the USA not sure about Europe. The vast majority were perfectly fine for commuting or for reliable transportation. The unfortunate caveat was that they had to be running and titled.

Show us where they "forced" you to take advantage of that program. Surely you brought your car in if it was "forced" right? Otherwise that is pure political nonsense carried as fact by some here. Folks were not taking in their well conditioned vehicles in droves so let's not act like they were good vehicles with high resale value. The ones I saw were not in good shape & they were getting a good trade-in value then what they otherwise would have not been able to trade them into the dealer.

 

[BISCUT]

Well unfortunately this is how the scientific process works. In any case it doesn't change "the why" although certain outlets have a financial incentive to generate outrage by suggesting otherwise.

I tried.

We were told "science" was used to determine 6ft distance, that masks worked, and the jab was the solution. The very same person who stated that (Fauci) recently admitted there was no scientific basis to make those statements. Keep believing brotha!

 

[97prizm]

Show us where they "forced" you to take advantage of that program. Surely you brought your car in if it was "forced" right? Otherwise that is pure political nonsense carried as fact by some here. Folks were not taking in their well conditioned vehicles in droves so let's not act like they were good vehicles with high resale value. The ones I saw were not in good shape & they were getting a good trade-in value then what they otherwise would have not been able to trade them into the dealer.

Actually "But why did taxpayers, having already bailed out GM and Chrysler once, have to do so again to the tune of $3 billion through the $3,500-$4,500 C4C incentives? This taxpayer money simply enabled the dealers to avoid having to offer discounts off sticker prices and to extract higher profit margins than they would have otherwise obtained on the qualifying new cars". Apparently you missed the "Taxpayer " part of this which yes means I and everyone else was forced to subsidize this.

 

[SammyChevelleTypeS3]

In a previous post I mentioned the area I lived in (lower Dutchess Cty, NY) was ripe for charging infrastructure but overall rather lacking. I questioned barriers to entry or ROI simply not high enough for businesses to invest. I believe that was two days ago. On the news of all places, this morning I heard a snippet stating Toyota CEO from Japan reports EV's max out at 30% of the overall vehicle market. Now that makes sense to me.

EV's are not for me in my current driving habits or geographical location. I could see the utility if I were urban. But I'm not. More I learn the more I'll stay away but no issues if EV's work for you. Not a bash here as I won't spend my money on one but to each their own. EV's don't hinder me in any way just the possibility of Govt mandating them.

EVs Will Max Out At 30 Percent Market Share: Toyota Chairman

Also, online used car retailer Vroom is dead, and Boeing may not hit its production goals because of recent issues.

jalopnik.com

It's one thing for many of us to say EV sales have cooled significantly or no way EV's are more popular than ever; another when a business titan has these words to say.

Does not surprise based on a couple things. Some you point out. Like you, I too am in no need or position any time soon to where I could see an EV enter the life of myself and the wife. We barley drive 10,000 mi a year with TWO cars so... Another reason for No Surprise of this from Toyota is the numerous articles and videos I have run across the last 2-3 years from Toyota explaining all the work and even showing design drawings and plans they have either on paper or in actual works involving "other fuel" type of vehicles. Vehicles that are not powered by normal gasoline and not battery powered EVs.

 

[Rmay635703]

I would agree with Toyota's CEO, however would be great if their current hybrid offerings had better availability. RAV4 Primes are out 3 years to get one as an example. At least in my area.

But according to others on this site nobody wants PHEV.

 

[BLND1]

*autistic screeching*

All those pretty graphs just to show a 4+% percent share of overall sales despite the governments boot on the neck of the auto industry.

EV may be the future. Widespread adoption of current battery tech isn’t likely.

 

[fantastic]

All those pretty graphs just to show a 4+% percent share of overall sales despite the governments boot on the neck of the auto industry.

EV may be the future. Widespread adoption of current battery tech isn’t likely.

That's a pathetic way of communicating to quote me as saying something I didn't. That's right you don't have anything to show except personal attacks.. sad!

Actually "But why did taxpayers, having already bailed out GM and Chrysler once, have to do so again to the tune of $3 billion through the $3,500-$4,500 C4C incentives? This taxpayer money simply enabled the dealers to avoid having to offer discounts off sticker prices and to extract higher profit margins than they would have otherwise obtained on the qualifying new cars". Apparently you missed the "Taxpayer " part of this which yes means I and everyone else was forced to subsidize this.

Yes, you do have a point about taxes. I could think of worse ways to spend though. I didn't necessarily agree with the long-term outcome of the bailout either.