Rapidly developing storm ... or not? Heading for the coast ... seems almost certain, maybe? Updates are rolling in!

the next one is here and it is in the right place to maybe make it to Fla or the Gulf . time will tellView attachment 180674
Not this one, it shows it dying out to a depression and this from the NHC
"
Philippe is expected to remain in a sheared environment, and
ingesting drier low- to mid-level air, over the next few days.
Wind fields from both the ECMWF and GFS models show Philippe's
circulation weakening below tropical storm strength around 48 hours
and beyond. Simulated satellite imagery from those models also
depict the system as lacking sufficient organized deep convection to
be considered a tropical cyclone while it approaches the northern
Leeward Islands. The official intensity forecast, like the previous
one, shows Philippe degenerating into a remnant low pressure area
around 72 hours."
 
@MSCH
However with the above said, the "X" (Disturbance 1) looks way more interesting to watch in the coming week. I didnt even know it was there until I looked at your post on Philippe above.

Screenshot 2023-09-27 at 10.44.26 AM.png
 
I didnt see anything in the NHC that threatened the Jersey coast... unless it was your local media which I can only assume and maybe why you should only pay attention to the official NOAA site.

Even the chart I posted yesterday on Page 3 shows the tropical storm is no longer a storm once is comes within a couple hundred plus miles of New Jersey. .
It was slated to come right over, I think up the Delaware bay. I didn’t expect much but the NHC did say 1-3 ft storm surge.
 
Unreal, I have had my sprinklers off since the start of the last week of August. In which since that week we had roughly 10+ (im losing count) inches of rain *LOL* 8 from the storm on the last day of August.

Ironically some of my neighbors are clueless about lawn care, they still have their sprinklers running 3 times a week and even after the storm at the end of August.
Just an FYI, our lawn is the talk of the community being so green. I want to tell some of them, they are drowning their lawns!
It amazes me the lawns that have the sprinklers on during and right after a nice rain here in Wilmington NC. I would think installing a rain sensor would be mantitory to keep from wasting water like that.
 
@MSCH
However with the above said, the "X" (Disturbance 1) looks way more interesting to watch in the coming week. I didnt even know it was there until I looked at your post on Philippe above.

View attachment 180691
yeah... just for me, in my location... any storm that meanders thru the latitudinal longitudinal box at and above Puerto Rico and has a general westward movement are the type I pay attention to.. but I dont actually do much thinking about it until the storms get to Cuba... and then I still have my wait and see hat on.
 
You know this is a week ago that you are commenting on and it turned into a Tropical storm that went up the coast, actually a strong tropical storm.
No I didn’t. Thought you were talking about this week. I got 2 days of rain from that storm. Was just playing with your name.
 
Well as we all know if you have been watching the news. The remanants of the storm dreached NY Metro area with record breaking rainfall of 7 to 8 inches in 24 hours. State of Emergency Declared for NY Metro area. (not that means anything anymore) but if you search the news for the flooding photos of Thursday and Friday it was like wow for such a small last minute storm.

Another post on this storm = https://bobistheoilguy.com/forums/threads/flooding-in-nyc-and-surrounding-areas.374191/
 
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