Even with 2.5 Million EVs on the road, total U.S. power generation goes down

Joined
Apr 24, 2018
Messages
3,757
Location
Wisconsin
Over the last decade and a half we have “electrified “ millions of new/existing homes (moving heating sources to electricity) and have added 2.5 million EVs to the grid.


(Despite adding 1.2 Million EVs to the grid, last year alone), our energy generation went DOWN by 1.1% in 2023. (Aka power use went down)
Why? Efficiency standards, Building code standards. Our homes and appliances have gotten 50% more efficient in the last 20 years. With that 1% we could add 10 MILLION more EVs to the grid, with no problem.

And honestly this isn’t anything new, we overbuilt power generation due to wildly exaggerated views of how much power use would grow (dating all the way back in the late 50’s/60’s).

For all the doomsday power spike predictions we are forgetting that we are constantly getting better at using less energy despite all the wild contortions and bad “grid power management “ decisions.

So reality is that electrification of passenger cars is a non-event because 10% of vehicles use 90% of the power, use common sense for the super users and steady improvements to net zero homes/businesses will outweigh our vehicle energy use as we slowly electrify more passenger vehicles.

Do I agree in removing nuclear and hydro power to half harzardly add wind and solar in its place, nope. But I don’t think EVs for normal cars is a grid issue, it may even help depending on how we manage it.

Worth noting that HD vehicles also have gotten much more efficient in the last 25 years as well (less fuel use via optimized trips and better efficiency in general), this reduction in fuel use equals 150% of the reductions in gas tax revenue, oops.
 
Last edited:
Seems like this article is quite self serving to correlate EVs to why energy generation went down. I could correlate all the farts from cows and how that may have affected reduced energy generation. Hence, the assumption I will make is this is really just another sales pitch in a different form.
 
Seems like this article is quite self serving to correlate EVs to why energy generation went down. I could correlate all the farts from cows and how that may have affected reduced energy generation. Hence, the assumption I will make is this is really just another sales pitch in a different form.
It sure looks like a sales pitch in a different form.
 
A couple million EVs are a needle in a haystack in the 132 MILLION USA households and 285 MILLION vehicles on the road.
Wait until the day (that will never come) when battery EVs will surpass vehicles with the ICE. The chart shows flat usage. IF EVs are widely accepted game over. But they arent going too, that link will read differently if and only if we get to 15% of EVs on the road which will mean about 43 million EVs not the current 2 million.
 
Last edited:
A couple million EVs are a needle in a haystack in the 132 MILLION USA households and 285 MILLION vehicles on the road.
Wait until the day (that will never come) when battery EVs will surpass vehicles with the ICE. The chart shows flat usage. IF EVs are widely accepted game over. But they arent going too, that link will rad differently if and only if we get to 15% of EVs on the road which will mean about 43 million EVs not the current 2 million.
Even if the EV numbers remain unchanged and they succeed in going after gas heat, hot water, and stoves, changing them all to electric, that article goes out the window.
 
A couple million EVs are a needle in a haystack in the 132 MILLION USA households and 285 MILLION vehicles on the road.
Wait until the day (that will never come) when battery EVs will surpass vehicles with the ICE. The chart shows flat usage. IF EVs are widely accepted game over. But they arent going too, that link will rad differently if and only if we get to 15% of EVs on the road which will mean about 43 million EVs not the current 2 million.
I’ve posted long standing information here multiple times that showed virtually half of cars barely move having daily average trips under 10 miles.

People generally have SOME common sense and those in that situation (short trips) are also most likely to own a plug in.

Due to this fact, electrifying a large number of cars on the road will barely move the needle of power use, it’s the upper 50% and especially the upper 10% that become difficult or completely unreasonable to electrify

Besides dock to stock semis, planes and a large chunk of delivery should not be a pure EV.

Even if the EV numbers remain unchanged and they succeed in going after gas heat, hot water, and stoves, that article goes out the window.

Thats both true and untrue at the same time, electrification can reduce power use in mild climates
But I strongly disagree with mandating an elimination of gas, especially in all but the most southern climates but the reality is new homes are being built even in the far north that use so little energy that it’s transparent from an energy use standard if they are electrified.

Times are slowly changing, my reasoning for pointing out the slow improvements to efficiency is that despite our homes growing dramatically in size, adding comfort and AC we have in general been dropping power use per capita for a long time.

The main bad guys are the mediocrity of apartment construction standards but even that is slowly getting better.

Another bad side effect of improving efficiency is then people just feel ok using gigantic stuff (vehicles/homes) they don’t need to waste more efficiently.
 
Last edited:
The author is a ding a ling. Industrial electricity use fell in 2023 due to the economy. Household use is only a third of electrical consumption in the USA.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/com...sion-hits-energy-consumption-kemp-2023-06-02/
Most of the “industrial reductions” was due to a bunch of crypto operations shutting down, circa 2021 Crypto used more power than EVs.

Good reason to not have crypto

 
Over the last decade and a half we have “electrified “ millions of new/existing homes (moving heating sources to electricity) and have added 2.5 million EVs to the grid.


(Despite adding 1.2 Million EVs to the grid, last year alone), our energy generation went DOWN by 1.1% in 2023. (Aka power use went down)
Why? Efficiency standards, Building code standards. Our homes and appliances have gotten 50% more efficient in the last 20 years. With that 1% we could add 10 MILLION more EVs to the grid, with no problem.

And honestly this isn’t anything new, we overbuilt power generation due to wildly exaggerated views of how much power use would grow (dating all the way back in the late 50’s/60’s).

For all the doomsday power spike predictions we are forgetting that we are constantly getting better at using less energy despite all the wild contortions and bad “grid power management “ decisions.

So reality is that electrification of passenger cars is a non-event because 10% of vehicles use 90% of the power, use common sense for the super users and steady improvements to net zero homes/businesses will outweigh our vehicle energy use as we slowly electrify more passenger vehicles.

Do I agree in removing nuclear and hydro power to half harzardly add wind and solar in its place, nope. But I don’t think EVs for normal cars is a grid issue, it may even help depending on how we manage it.

Worth noting that HD vehicles also have gotten much more efficient in the last 25 years as well (less fuel use via optimized trips and better efficiency in general), this reduction in fuel use equals 150% of the reductions in gas tax revenue, oops.
The author of the article IMO falls into the green nut case category and should be viewed with great scepticism.

Joe Wachunas

Joe is a passionate environmentalist who lives in Portland, Oregon. In addition to working for Electrify Now
, Joe is a Program Manager for the New Buildings Institute, managing the Advanced Water Heating Initiative. He is a frequent contributor to CleanTechnica writing articles about topics relating to electrification and clean energy. Joe believes that electrifying everything, from transportation to homes, is the quickest path to an equitable, clean energy future. And of course, Joe and his family used their own home to experiment and learn about all electric solutions, solar power and EVs.
 
Last edited:
Over the last decade and a half we have “electrified “ millions of new/existing homes (moving heating sources to electricity) and have added 2.5 million EVs to the grid.


(Despite adding 1.2 Million EVs to the grid, last year alone), our energy generation went DOWN by 1.1% in 2023. (Aka power use went down)
Why? Efficiency standards, Building code standards. Our homes and appliances have gotten 50% more efficient in the last 20 years. With that 1% we could add 10 MILLION more EVs to the grid, with no problem.

And honestly this isn’t anything new, we overbuilt power generation due to wildly exaggerated views of how much power use would grow (dating all the way back in the late 50’s/60’s).

For all the doomsday power spike predictions we are forgetting that we are constantly getting better at using less energy despite all the wild contortions and bad “grid power management “ decisions.

So reality is that electrification of passenger cars is a non-event because 10% of vehicles use 90% of the power, use common sense for the super users and steady improvements to net zero homes/businesses will outweigh our vehicle energy use as we slowly electrify more passenger vehicles.

Do I agree in removing nuclear and hydro power to half harzardly add wind and solar in its place, nope. But I don’t think EVs for normal cars is a grid issue, it may even help depending on how we manage it.

Worth noting that HD vehicles also have gotten much more efficient in the last 25 years as well (less fuel use via optimized trips and better efficiency in general), this reduction in fuel use equals 150% of the reductions in gas tax revenue, oops.
Interesting considering that residential and commercial natgas has been relatively flat. IOW NatGas isn't replacing electric for heating/cooking.

main.svg


Beginning in 2006 all of the states were given some money to update their energy codes and since then states have continued to push towards greater residential/commercial energy efficiency. All states implement code differently. Heat pumps, Hi efficiency gas furnaces, better construction techniques (air sealing, glazing) and solar have done a lot to make homes more efficient and by extension more comfortable.

6ed21052-3ce6-4f5a-b5d6-d7d1bcbce61f_U.S.+Energy+Codes+Adopted+by+States.webp
 
The author is a ding a ling. Industrial electricity use fell in 2023 due to the economy. Household use is only a third of electrical consumption in the USA.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/com...sion-hits-energy-consumption-kemp-2023-06-02/
This is what I was going to ask about.

How did manufacturing fare compared not only to the prior year, but lets see a 10 year trend line.

Was 2022 an outlier in higher usage, so 2023 was destined or more likely to be a drop in usage?

Economy slowed, so less manufacturing?

More business closures combined with people still WFH?

Just some ideas that come to mind.
 
Hard to run the numbers, but the older ones ones Ive seen suggest bitcoin mining is worse than electric cars.
 
A couple million EVs are a needle in a haystack in the 132 MILLION USA households and 285 MILLION vehicles on the road.
Wait until the day (that will never come) when battery EVs will surpass vehicles with the ICE. The chart shows flat usage. IF EVs are widely accepted game over. But they arent going too, that link will read differently if and only if we get to 15% of EVs on the road which will mean about 43 million EVs not the current 2 million.
Exactly!

When I look at the EIA numbers linked in the story the bottom of the page tells the tale.


Residential usage was down 3.1%
Commercial usage was down 1.1%
Industrial usage was down 0.6%
Only transportation was up 5.2%

Transportation makes up 6,316 million kWh out of 3,537,261 million kWh or less than 0.2% of the total if I'm doing the math correctly in my head.
 
I would like him to explain why there are still brown outs and black outs and the state asking people to turn things off and not charge their car under high grid stress conditions. I bet he has some numbers he pulled out of his backside just for this question.
 
It doesn't return anything to overbuild a grid. There's actually negative incentive to overbuild the grid since crises run the price up. Like everything else, the availability of electricity settles at Just Enough for the consumer, ensuring a profit.

Texas did avoid some blackouts by paying crypto miners to shut down temporarily.
 
You will see mass adoption of EV's in the coming couple decades. Changes in laws worldwide along with more costly fossil resources will make it happen. Carbon taxes are coming. I watched the CEO of Occidental petroleum this morning state that there are no more large undiscovered stocks of oil left in the world. Better extraction science has made the resource fairly plentiful at present time but she predicts a much costlier future for oil and natural gas. When this cost translates to higher consumer costs for fuel, EV's become more appealing. The world power generation needs to pivot to new base load producers. I vote nuclear as wind and solar will probably never account for more than 20% of supply. As already stated, the power consumed by crypto miners is going away as new safety algorithms with little or no mining are now here.
 
It doesn't return anything to overbuild a grid. There's actually negative incentive to overbuild the grid since crises run the price up. Like everything else, the availability of electricity settles at Just Enough for the consumer, ensuring a profit.

Texas did avoid some blackouts by paying crypto miners to shut down temporarily.
Plus price increases must be approved by the govt run utility board.
 
Why do people still consume this type of agenda driven media & attempt to derive something from it other than an agenda?

If anyone wants actual data & assessments for the BES, use NERC, FERC or the regional entities.

https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Pages/default.aspx

https://www.ferc.gov/electric







Map to locate your regional entity:

 
You will see mass adoption of EV's in the coming couple decades. Changes in laws worldwide along with more costly fossil resources will make it happen. Carbon taxes are coming. I watched the CEO of Occidental petroleum this morning state that there are no more large undiscovered stocks of oil left in the world. Better extraction science has made the resource fairly plentiful at present time but she predicts a much costlier future for oil and natural gas. When this cost translates to higher consumer costs for fuel, EV's become more appealing. The world power generation needs to pivot to new base load producers. I vote nuclear as wind and solar will probably never account for more than 20% of supply. As already stated, the power consumed by crypto miners is going away as new safety algorithms with little or no mining are now here.
Keep in mind they use coal, oil and natural gas to make electric, so they're going to have to go to nuclear because wind and solar won't cut it. So if they want to phase out coal, oil, and natural gas they better come up with a viable plan. At the moment the grid sucks, so they better sort that out too.
 
Our CA aging grid had a lot of brown and black outs before EV became popular. There were a lot yesterday due to the worst storm in years. Air conditioning is the peak use culprit.
 
Back
Top