By 2030, 95% of people won’t own a private car

[nap]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bertelschmi...l/#2d27d8193a3d

The intriguing snippet is this:

“ Seba also said that by 2030, 95% of people won’t own a private car, killing off the auto industry.“

By following the link provided in the Forbes article, one may get to an elaborate document trying to promote this idea. Obviously someone is generously financing this propaganda.

What do you gents think? Is there some evil plan going on here? Would you let yourself be deprived of personal transportation means? Would it work for your particular location and needs?

 

[CARJ]

In 12 years this will happen? Not a chance.

 

[Astro14]

Reminds me of the predictions I saw in the 1970s - "by 1990, we will have flying cars"

 

[gregk24]

I hope this never happens, I enjoy driving too much. I can’t see this happening any time soon.

 

[Wurlitzer]

In most of western Europe they have dependable public transportation such as train systems, bus systems, and bike lanes. It makes it a lot easier to go places and a lot cheaper. I would love for America to catch up and do the same thing. You can still own a car but without having to depend on it.

 

[supton]

Originally Posted By: Astro14
Reminds me of the predictions I saw in the 1970s - "by 1990, we will have flying cars"


Yep. They just keep pushing out the prediction. I wasn't reading mags in the 70's but I have to wonder if similar dire predictions about the death of the car wasn't around back during the OPEC crisis.

OTOH... do we care? I mean, let's hit rewind for a moment and go back to 1900 or maybe 1910. Who owned cars? but what if your local paper predicted the death of the horse and buggy in less than 20 years? How upset would you be? How upset should you have been, what with the hindsight of 100 years of progress that we have today? Maybe the next thing around the corner will be better.

 

[Zee09]

We ran out of gas in 1973- so I believe it.

 

[goodtimes]

People can predict whatever they like, end of the world in ten years or whatever, and spend their life savings doing it. What's it anyone's business what people say in a free society? I think there will be more personal cars, probably electric, my saying it isn't changing what will happen. People love their freedom to drive. The main problem is going to be too many people. Mother nature will take care of that eventually.

 

[Astro14]

Originally Posted By: Wurlitzer
In most of western Europe they have dependable public transportation such as train systems, bus systems, and bike lanes. It makes it a lot easier to go places and a lot cheaper. I would love for America to catch up and do the same thing. You can still own a car but without having to depend on it.


We never will "catch up".

We didn't have the population density to make public transportation viable outside of a few pockets (e.g. DC-BOS corridor) before the development of the automobile while Europe had long established cities.

Further, the growth of America, building of cities and town, was concurrent with the automobile. It's a symbiotic relationship. We couldn't have our population/living pattern without the car and for the most part, we are now too spread out for public transportation to be practical and viable in most of the country.

Europe limited that growth by taxing fuel heavily from the outset, initially making cars the toys of the rich, instead of the enabler of the commoner.

If Henry Ford hadn't changed the cost of cars, the US today would look very different. Suburbs would be as non-existent here as they are in Europe. Call it "sprawl" if you like, but the fact remains, that most of American growth happened subsequently to the car, and light rail, bus, rail, etc. just can't replace the car.

Now, Uber? Self-driving cars? Car sharing? All use existing infrastructure (roads) and have the potential to change how we get around. But it won't happen in a decade and it won't be rail/bus that supplants the car in the US. They simply don't work with the way we've built.

 

[A_Harman]

Jimmy Carter said during the 1976 Presidential Campaign that we would be completely out of oil by 2011.
Now it's 2018, and there are more proven reserves than there was back then.
Alarmists always have an agenda, and furthermore, they're always wrong.

 

[SubieRubyRoo]

Originally Posted By: A_Harman
Jimmy Carter said during the 1976 Presidential Campaign that we would be completely out of oil by 2011.
Now it's 2018, and there are more proven reserves than there was back then.
Alarmists always have an agenda, and furthermore, they're always wrong.


Alarmists' agenda is always to introduce more taxes and controls on free enterprise.

Cue Al Gore and "carbon credits" for the "global warming" farce that has been proven a lie through manipulated data- the only people that suffer are the rank and file.

 

[SZR48207]

These future fetish predictions can screw off. They are never correct and are just virtue signaling.

 

[spackard]

The problem with linking to Forbes articles is the content changes.

Today's article: The Internal Combustion Engine Will Survive Us All
by Bertel Schmitt
...

In front of the oil cans, Yamamori put two metal gizmos with a small hand crank. The right-hand crank was lubricated with standard 0W16 oil, the left-hand crank was oiled with a new and improved variety of lube. The effect was felt immediately. The crank with the last generation oil was crankier, there was a noticeable resistance. The crank with the new oil turned much smoother. A meter behind the two gadgets suggested that the new oil eliminated two thirds of the friction.

The oil on the left is more slippery because it’s a synthetic oil with a generous dose of friction-proofing molybdenum, a compound known for decades since companies like Liqui-Moly sold it as a pricey oil additive. The new part is that Toyota’s new generation motor oil costs the same as the old, “because we want people to use it,” Yamamori told me. The oil is supplied to Toyota by “a major oil company,” which one remained undisclosed.

I love how 0W-16 is called "last generation oil", but I suppose to someone's perspective it is.

 

[69GTX]

Originally Posted By: A_Harman
Jimmy Carter said during the 1976 Presidential Campaign that we would be completely out of oil by 2011.
Now it's 2018, and there are more proven reserves than there was back then.
Alarmists always have an agenda, and furthermore, they're always wrong.


Remember "peak" oil production back around 1970? They got that one wrong big time.

The dire global warming predictions from the 1980's and 1990's have mostly expired worthless. The earth has climate change....it happens...naturally.

 

[ArrestMeRedZ]

Did I miss something in the article? I thought it indicated the only one who thinks cars will go away was a Stanford economist, and the article's author thinks he's on drugs. Do I need to go back and read it slower?

 

[jeepman3071]

Originally Posted By: CARJ
In 12 years this will happen? Not a chance.


+1

 

[supton]

Originally Posted By: ArrestMeRedZ
Did I miss something in the article? I thought it indicated the only one who thinks cars will go away was a Stanford economist, and the article's author thinks he's on drugs. Do I need to go back and read it slower?
Heh, no you're right, I skimmed it too quickly, although I was dismissive of the thought from the get-go.

 

[PSS]

He does not know the future. But neither do we.

But did you eve think you would have a device more powerful than anything from Star Trek in your pocket?

 

[Wurlitzer]

Originally Posted By: Astro14
Originally Posted By: Wurlitzer
In most of western Europe they have dependable public transportation such as train systems, bus systems, and bike lanes. It makes it a lot easier to go places and a lot cheaper. I would love for America to catch up and do the same thing. You can still own a car but without having to depend on it.


We never will "catch up".

We didn't have the population density to make public transportation viable outside of a few pockets (e.g. DC-BOS corridor) before the development of the automobile while Europe had long established cities.

Further, the growth of America, building of cities and town, was concurrent with the automobile. It's a symbiotic relationship. We couldn't have our population/living pattern without the car and for the most part, we are now too spread out for public transportation to be practical and viable in most of the country.

Europe limited that growth by taxing fuel heavily from the outset, initially making cars the toys of the rich, instead of the enabler of the commoner.

If Henry Ford hadn't changed the cost of cars, the US today would look very different. Suburbs would be as non-existent here as they are in Europe. Call it "sprawl" if you like, but the fact remains, that most of American growth happened subsequently to the car, and light rail, bus, rail, etc. just can't replace the car.

Now, Uber? Self-driving cars? Car sharing? All use existing infrastructure (roads) and have the potential to change how we get around. But it won't happen in a decade and it won't be rail/bus that supplants the car in the US. They simply don't work with the way we've built.

This is all true. But the European model would still benefit America, even with the existing infrastructure and community layouts. A train station in every major municipality; buses from the municipality to the smaller suburbs/towns/communities; bike lanes from the suburbs/towns/communities to peoples homes.

 

[SZR48207]

Originally Posted By: Wurlitzer
Originally Posted By: Astro14
Originally Posted By: Wurlitzer
In most of western Europe they have dependable public transportation such as train systems, bus systems, and bike lanes. It makes it a lot easier to go places and a lot cheaper. I would love for America to catch up and do the same thing. You can still own a car but without having to depend on it.


We never will "catch up".

We didn't have the population density to make public transportation viable outside of a few pockets (e.g. DC-BOS corridor) before the development of the automobile while Europe had long established cities.

Further, the growth of America, building of cities and town, was concurrent with the automobile. It's a symbiotic relationship. We couldn't have our population/living pattern without the car and for the most part, we are now too spread out for public transportation to be practical and viable in most of the country.

Europe limited that growth by taxing fuel heavily from the outset, initially making cars the toys of the rich, instead of the enabler of the commoner.

If Henry Ford hadn't changed the cost of cars, the US today would look very different. Suburbs would be as non-existent here as they are in Europe. Call it "sprawl" if you like, but the fact remains, that most of American growth happened subsequently to the car, and light rail, bus, rail, etc. just can't replace the car.

Now, Uber? Self-driving cars? Car sharing? All use existing infrastructure (roads) and have the potential to change how we get around. But it won't happen in a decade and it won't be rail/bus that supplants the car in the US. They simply don't work with the way we've built.

This is all true. But the European model would still benefit America, even with the existing infrastructure and community layouts. A train station in every major municipality; buses from the municipality to the smaller suburbs/towns/communities; bike lanes from the suburbs/towns/communities to peoples homes.


Most major cities have some link to rail, because that's how cities formed very early on. But anyone whose time is valuable will be quick to realize that taking rail to another city is not feasible when a plane ticket is only slightly more expensive and cuts the time by 10.

I once checked to see if I could take Amtrak from Dallas to Los Angeles. It can be done, but the trip is around 4-5 days! With most people working jobs that only permit a few weeks of vacation each year, that just isn't a feasible way to travel when you can hop on a plane and be there in 3 hours.

The European model works because Europe is Europe, not because the methods they developed can be applied to every other nation.