5w-30 at 10.2k miles; 230k miles on Villager

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Originally Posted By: tig1
As for being"programed" I have been around engines since the mid 60s and have seen many engines sludged. I still feel 10-15 K OCIs with dino will result in problems in most engines if you plan to run it more than 75K.


tig, the SM and SN-rated oils of today bear very little resemblance to the oils of the mid-60's. Particularly with the new SN specifications, there are pretty rigorous standards for deposit control and drain interval. OEM's spec OCI's well into the range that Dave is doing (and longer), and with "conventional" oil. The difference is that today's "conventional" oils are much more suitable for long drains.
 
Excellent report! Everyone would be drooling over themselves if this was AFE 0w30, or PP5w30, or...
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I suspect my corolla will run forever with regular dino changes, as would the subaru.
 
Originally Posted By: JOD
Originally Posted By: tig1
As for being"programed" I have been around engines since the mid 60s and have seen many engines sludged. I still feel 10-15 K OCIs with dino will result in problems in most engines if you plan to run it more than 75K.


tig, the SM and SN-rated oils of today bear very little resemblance to the oils of the mid-60's. Particularly with the new SN specifications, there are pretty rigorous standards for deposit control and drain interval. OEM's spec OCI's well into the range that Dave is doing (and longer), and with "conventional" oil. The difference is that today's "conventional" oils are much more suitable for long drains.


Of course todays oils are better, but we still see them sludged and varnished badly. I anyone recomends 10-15 K on dino speak up.
 
A person can come up with a lot of "what-ifs" and Chicken-Little this half to death but that facts are, dnewton3 went into this after a lot of research and study. He was mindful of the various potential problems, but adverse what-ifs did not appear and this report looks great. In essence, I think he probably knew the answer to this before it actually came because he had done his prior homework.
The lesson here is that knowledge and experience trumps "cheap insurance" and that the "cheap insurance philosophy" is for those unwilling to expand their knowledge and experience.

We do a lot of debating on the hypothetical here and that's OK. Thing is, it's very easy to get lost in it and think the hypothetical, or at least the narrow range of the hypothetical most of us have the training or education to ponder, forms the entirety of the real world. The more open minded know it isn't, even if we don't know but a fraction of "everything."

I'm not knocking what Dave did here but in the real world, this really isn't all that much of a big whoop. What we have here is another very useful and practical demonstration. It only appears to expands the what-if boundaries. It really isn't all that much a revelation! What Dave showed us happens all the time in the real world of perpetually busy people who drop their cars off for oil changes when they have the time, not on the AR schedule of a BITOG enthusiast who generally knows to the mileage decimal point when his oil is due for changing. And most of the time, those "neglected" cars go their merry way with nary a hiccup.

Now a person would be a fool to take this report and make it a universal decree that every engine in any circumstance can do 10K+ with the cheapest oil on the planet. One could and should take note of the demonstration of the process and carefully considered choices here. A person can translate what Dave did to their own circumstance. Maybe save themselves a little money and momentarily slow the drain on the world resource bank.

There is always the chance some oil-noob with more enthusiasm than experience or considered judgement will emulate this, miss the finer points and have an adverse experience. So be it. The roadmap is here. If a person takes an ill-considered "knowledge shortcut," gets stuck in a blizzard and has to eat the upholstery to survive.... that's on them.

I'm at about 11K on dino with my F150, having UOA'ed at around 10K. It's HDEO dino, which is a little more robust than the ST Dave is using, plus I have a bypass filter. I have run a GTX blend out to 10K once on our Honda (4 GTX, 1 Syntec, both older SL oils from my stash). Would've like to have beaten Dave to the draw with a UOA on that but I screwed up the sampling process mightily.

Anyway, Dave, thanks for another lesson on practical oil magic.
 
You are right, in that people out there in the real world, outside of Bitogland, unwittingly duplicate the OP's experiment all the time with no lasting ill effects.
You are also right in that experience and homework trump the cheap insurance approach that many of us (including me) tend to take.
Did the OP know what the results would be before undertaking this run?
Probably.
He probably also figured, correctly, that one run beyond the capabilities of the oil wouldn't kill the old dear or cause the engine lasting harm.
It is still an impressive demonstration of just how well one of the cheapest oils on the shelf can hold up on what most of us would consider an excessively long OCI.
Finally, your don't try this at home warning is well placed, in that nobody should take this as a blanket endorsement of 10K OCIs with any oil in all circumstances, but rather that it can be done if the variables are identified and considered.
 
Originally Posted By: tig1


Of course todays oils are better, but we still see them sludged and varnished badly. I anyone recomends 10-15 K on dino speak up.


Tig, there have been no reports of engines varnished up on 10K OCI's on SN-rated oils--they haven't been on the market that long! The fact is, the SN requirements have significantly narrowed the gap between "conventional" and "synthetic". The OEM's have pushed for longer drain intervals, and the SN-rated oils seem to be up to the task.

I'm not saying there's "no difference", and unlike Dave I think there are other benefits besides drain interval length. I also agree that a UOA only gives a partial snapshop. At a minimum though, Dave's UOA should be useful in providing some comfort to those whose OLM's suggest 10K (or greater) OCI's on conventional oil.

As far as heavily varnished/sludged engines and long OCI's, I bet that oil level has a lot to do with most of those cases, since negligent owners aren't doing "long OCI's", they're just ignoring their car. If Dave were to bump this up to 15-18K and NOT TOP OFF THE OIL, then I'm willing to bet things would be a lot different. I think the real damage comes on that last 2K when folks are driving around w/2 qts of oil in the sump.
 
Very nice results and again proves what blanket statements/mindsets are worth.
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Also its great to see some members with their comments.

As someone who has used both (unlike some members) syn and conventional over the decades with many vehicles I've never seen the NEED for statements that x protects better than y or this oil is only good for x many of miles and any more will destroy your engine.
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I've taken plenty motors well past 200k and never have a problem related to oil choice.

Thanks Dave for FACTUAL data. Not marketing, not links to marketing drool from someone selling something but ACTUAL data from ACTUAL use.

Sadly I've stopped posting my UOAs since I just don't have the time or strength for all the fan boys and their marketing/justifying their waste.

Thank you for your time and data.
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Bill
 
Originally Posted By: Jim Allen
Now a person would be a fool to take this report and make it a universal decree that every engine in any circumstance can do 10K+ with the cheapest oil on the planet. One could and should take note of the demonstration of the process and carefully considered choices here. A person can translate what Dave did to their own circumstance. Maybe save themselves a little money and momentarily slow the drain on the world resource bank.

Where is the "like" button??
cheers3.gif
 
Originally Posted By: 2010_FX4
Originally Posted By: Jim Allen
Now a person would be a fool to take this report and make it a universal decree that every engine in any circumstance can do 10K+ with the cheapest oil on the planet. One could and should take note of the demonstration of the process and carefully considered choices here. A person can translate what Dave did to their own circumstance. Maybe save themselves a little money and momentarily slow the drain on the world resource bank.

Where is the "like" button??
cheers3.gif



This is perhaps the best analysis of my analysis!

I've NEVER said that my practices are "best" for everyone; they are the best for me.

I use a lot of informational input (SAE studies, huge UOA database, and real world personal experiences in vehicle maintenance and equipment rebuilding) to make my decisions. IOW - I use hard facts and data, unique to my situation.

There most certainly are vehicles where 10-15k miles on dino oil would result in horrid, if not destructive, endings. The SL2 that tpicher has is an example; it would be terrible to run a dino that long. But, there is real world credible evidence that shows 3k mile OCIs are safe in an SL2. He and I disagree on his choice of lube, but I can show him (and everyone) the exact delineation between safe and not-safe in an OCI; it's between 3-4k miles on his engine. That is using real world data from more than 500 UOAs to look at oil consumption. I don't succumb to rhetoric about how great a synthetic is; I look at data and make my determination.

That same concept would apply to some of the known Toyota sludger engines. Any lube (dino or syn) can be overused; any lube has a finite lifespan.

The key to operating a successful maintenance plan is to know your equipment's strengths and weaknesses, and then analyze your operating parameters, and only then pick a lube that safely gets you there for the least cost.

Jim and Garak and 2010_FX4 are right; this UOA is not proof that everyone can do this distance. But it is proof that synthetics are not a necessity for long, healthy OCI durations, nor a predicated requirement for sound equipment maintenance.

The reality is that most vehicles and conventional lubes already have plenty of "safety factor" in the OCI; the products are much more capable than most folks think. There are some rare exceptions, and those must be known/cared for alternately. But the VAST MAJORITY of BITOGers are way too sensitive to their equipment and lube choice.

I often point to my signature line, and yet people ignore it. Read it, and then read it again. It speaks volumes.


I spent a lot of personal time running data for my "normalcy" article, and I do a lot of big-talk bloviating about longer OCIs. Some people have rightly challenged me to put my money where my mouth is; so I did. And guess what? Seems I was right. My wear rates are dropping as macro data predicted, my contamination is nearly non-existent, there is no sludge formation, and the TBN/TAN relationship (that nearly everyone fears but few truly understand) shows no acid build up. At this pace, it is very reasonable to expect I could safely go to 15k miles on Wally's dino oil and a normal filter. No "need" for synthetics or premium filters. And THAT is what I set out to show, and THAT is what I have proved. There is no concieveable manner in which a synthetic would have been "better" here. Very low wear, no sludge, vis in perfect shape, and TBN/TAN in control. Just where could a synthetic have been "better" with realistic expectation???


Rather than have to swallow a bitter "I told you so" pill, I'm pulling the money from my mouth and putting it back into my wallet.
 
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Originally Posted By: dnewton3
At this pace, it is very reasonable to expect I could safely go to 15k miles on Wally's dino oil and a normal filter. No "need" for synthetics or premium filters. And THAT is what I set out to show, and THAT is what I have proved. There is no concieveable manner in which a synthetic would have been "better" here. Very low wear, no sludge, vis in perfect shape, and TBN/TAN in control. Just where could a synthetic have been "better" with realistic expectation???

Rather than have to swallow a bitter "I told you so" pill, I'm pulling the money from my mouth and putting it back into my wallet.


First, congrats on being so pleased with your UOA results. With that said, there is one point I think you have overlooked. "Putting money back into my wallet" can be accomplished by some degree with syns. Syns will provide an incremental increase in MPG's.

In a short OCI, its especially hard to quantify as driving habits, weather, etc. all factor in. But in a longer OCI, the savings effect of syns are still incremental, but amplified. This is noteworthy considering syns don't cost much more than conventionals to begin with. Driving 15K over a years time, the $5-$7 price differential (just ~50 cents/month!) at WalMart is negligible, and may be more than made up with syns.

(BTW, I am not a "fan boy"
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, I use both syns and conventionals, according to what is the best fit for each of my vehicles.)
 
I would completely agree.

Again; read my signature line.

I never said that synthetics could not pay for themselves; they certainly have the potential to do so.

This is all about using fiscal and physical analysis in concert. To judge any product relative to another, you must hold one thing as a constant and review the other variables. We either hold the level of performance as the constant, or the OCI. If we hold the OCI constant, we judge wear. If we hold wear rates constant, we judge OCI duration.

If we hold the OCI steady for both, then the syn would have to do something extraordiary beyond what the dino could do. In this UOA, it's nearly impossible to fathom a syn showing less wear or contamination. In fact, both the syn and the dino performed right in line with universal statistical macro-data expectations. Neither had an advantage over the other.

Therefore, if the syn cannot outperform the dino in wear reduction for this duration, it's only hope to pay for itself is in longer OCIs. How much further would syn have to run to pay for itself? If I can run a dino out to 15k miles (which clearly looks very attainable), then a syn would have to be safe out to 30+k miles or more, just to break even for ROI, because a syn costs at least 2x more money. And we'd have to seriously consider a filter change in the syn OCI, or a very premium filter, to go that 30k miles. That "upgrade" affects the cost structure, too, and shift the ROI point.


Look at the choices I have:
- the AR BITOG synthetic-every-5k-miles approach
- the enlightened 15k mile dino approach
Either one is going to safely protect the engine. Either system will hold down wear, exhibit low contamination, and have little acid production.
But my plan would cost 6x (six times) less money! If you figure syn costs 2x more per quart, and it is changed 3x more often, that is a 6x factor in cost. All for the same level of engine protection. Not suspected or theorhetical hype, but proven data. Over the life of my 230k miles, that is a LOT of money that I could save. And, given the current state of the enigne and tranny, there is no reason to think it won't go another 230k miles (if the vehicle doesn't rot of cancerous rust first).
 
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Originally Posted By: dnewton3
How much further would syn have to run to pay for itself? If I can run a dino out to 15k miles (which clearly looks very attainable), then a syn would have to be safe out to 30+k miles or more, just to break even for ROI, because a syn costs at least 2x more money.


I haven't checked in a while, but WM had PYB for $15 or so, and QSUD for $21 or so. No way they cost 2X more. With MPG savings, I believe syns to be the better value, paying for themselves and then some over the same 15K interval.

If you get only a 0.05 MPG increase, going from 20 mpg to 20.05 mpg, syns save ~2 gallons over 15K. Thats $7 or more. If you just go from 20.0 to 20.1 mpg, you save ~$15 with syns!
 
Yes way; syns are about 2x the cost factor. That is an approximation of the lower cost dinos to average syns (syns have a VERY wide cost range).

I just got two cases of Rural King API SN/GF-5 oil for $1.79/qrt; that was not with any rebate, but just the walk-in price on the shelf. Once I'm done with the Walmart testing, I'm going to that next. Want to wager on the results?


As for the MPG - there is always a potential for payback. But I don't want your hypothetical rhetoric; run a well controlled and documented experiment, and then post of your proof. I'll accept your claims if they can be proven in a well-controlled experiment.
 
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Originally Posted By: dnewton3
Yes way; syns are about 2x the cost factor. Once I'm done with the Walmart testing, I'm going to that next. Want to wager on the results?


Your choice, WM Supertech conv. $12.97, ST FULL SYN, $20.27!
 
Again, congratulations and way to go running it out and getting your money's worth.
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What are you deciding for the upcoming OCI and others down the road given your fantastic results on this vehicle?
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Originally Posted By: tig1
You have paid for 450 UOAs?? Have I read this correctly?

I read that too!!! really? thats allot of cash man.
 
Originally Posted By: tpitcher
Again, congratulations and way to go running it out and getting your money's worth.
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What are you deciding for the upcoming OCI and others down the road given your fantastic results on this vehicle?
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That is a very fair question and I'm not confident I have the answer yet. I suspect I can do 15k miles. Your question is a fair prod; so how do I get there?

For my current sump load, I might run to 10k miles again, and sample (but not OCI). That would give me a decent confirmation of this current UOA result, presuming things were similar. Then if it looks this good, I'd extend to 15k miles. If not, I'll know that 10k-ish miles were the limit.

Everything here that can be tracked is being tracked, and is tracking well:
- wear metals at or below average rates
- low insolubles
- vis neither thickening nor thinning much
- great TBN/TAN relationship
- visual under-cover clues show no sludge formation
- engine compression is not compromised
- no fuel or coolant contamination
- good air filtration

Short of a full engine tear-down, this is about as good a predictive result as anyone could hope for.

So, I will plunder on towards 15k miles. Even if I make a mistake and push it too far, I don't believe the engine will self-destruct from one OCI. I might see an escalation that is dubious and of concern; the wear metals might spike. But that does not infer real damage, but just a limit that has been discovered.
 
10k miles on a $11 jug of oil seems like a reasonable ROI. Then again, if I had an older van with 230k+ miles on it, I might want to push the envelope for the sake of science
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The van is very servicable; runs great. After 17 years of kids eating and trashing the interior, along with countless parking lot dings and years of road-salf, it is (shall we say) "cosmetically challenged". That would be the politically correct term, perhaps?

Part of me thinks I should just treat the ol' girl to 10k mile OCIs and leave well enough alone. She's got life left in her; how much do I want to push it? My wife actually has an emotional attachment to the van; I offered to get her a newer ride last year and she balked. She loves that old van. (Must be the faint smell of Gold-Fish and graham craker dust in Kool-aide stained carpet that reminds her of the kids when they were young ...)

The other part of me wants to call myself a pansy for wanting to stop here; I should move forward in the name of science and push the envelope. Discover new boundaries, as it were. I've been very vocal about pushing for the ROI, in any situation with any lube. I don't want to be labeled a "quitter" by my fellow BITOG bretheren!
 
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Thanks for the data. We appreciate you posting. With this UOA about 40% of it was under ideal conditions with your long road trip. When you push the OCI to 15k will this be duplicated, or will most of that usage fall under the "severe" category?
 
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