Hi Tempest,
Cost depends on volume, which is part of the problem, but I would expect the base ester to cost perhaps 3-4 times that of a Grp III. The additive system would likely also benefit from a revamping to match the ester.
Material cost is only part of the equation as a full testing program would be needed to prove out a new chemistry approach, which would have to be amortized over a relatively small specialty volume. This could be partially offset by alternate additional applications and government funding. Hard to say what the finished oil would sell for as this is a marketing decision based on the business plan, but $15-20/quart wouldn't surprise me.
OCI is dependent on many factors and the base oil contribution in an internal combustion engine is minor. If blow-by could be reduced in design, the base oil becomes a much greater factor.
If you are looking to do a cost justification calculation, passenger car applications won't cut it. The main benefits of such an advance oil compared to Grp IIIs, PAO, and conventional esters would be higher temperature capability and reduced deposits, while retaining the typical ester benefits of low volatility, high lubricity, and some biodegradability. Car engines are not severe enough to benefit from these properties. You need an application that provides a real thermal and oxidative challenge, or requires long life without blow-by.
Tom NJ