Violent crime down, while gun sales are up

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Crime may be going down throughout the USA but I am certain my area is an exception. Because without any question we have gone from a situation where there were only rare murders to typically several murders per year.

But gang activity has gone up. So maybe that explains the murder rate increasing.
 
Originally Posted By: surfstar
dnewton3 - if I am not sick, I have a near 0% chance of being killed by a medical mistake. Going about my daily life, there is a very small chance of being randomly shot, but it still is there.

I believe that modern medicine saves quite a few more lives than gun ownership does.



First of all, your statement presumes that all medical deaths only happen to "sick" people. That is not true at all. There are many different causational events that would put you into the medical profession; illness is only one of them. Uncontrolled accidents and even planned events also put you there. So for you to state that you have "0% chance of being killed by a medical mistake" is patently false. If you were struck by a vehicle, and lived to make it to the hospital for surgeory, but died on the table, that most certinaly is not "0%" chance, just because you were not sick. Clearly, you're not willing to look at this through anything but rose-colored glasses. You seem to want to allow bias that would justify your cause, rather than simply look at facts from an overall viewpoint.

Secondly, if you'd like to have a conversation about how many lives are "saved" by medicine and guns, that is a completely different topic, but I can assure you the data is very positive on both fronts. I suspect you have a very limited, or tainted, view of how many guns save lives. If you wish to have that converstaion, then start a new thread. But I assure you I will be there with real facts and data to bolster my position; what are you going to bring to the conversation? I will bring data mined from the CDC, AMA, BJS, FBI, OJP, etc. To date, in the topic of gun deaths and crime, you've brought zilch to support your portion of the debate. Will this proposed topic be any different?

Now, I completely agree that modern medicine can help do things that were impractical or impossible decades ago. But just as gun ownership is a double-edged sword, so is medicine. I never said we should abondon our medical system; that's plain silly. I use the medical systems that are in place here, just as most others do. I appreciate that we have some of the best care in the world, and it does offer opportunities that never existed before. I support the use and advances of modern medicine. But I do so while acknowledging the inherrent risks therein. In fact, the more specialized our medical world becomes, it can not only provide ever greater opportunities, but also greater risks, as minute interactions of all manners can have dire, deadly consequences. Some prescription medicines that didn't even exist years ago, can save lives today, but also are so similar and easily mis-spelled, that one wrong interpretation of a script can lead to death. That is just ONE example of how great medicine ends badly.

The FACTS show that far more people die from iatragenisis every year than from guns; way, far more. As my data shows, you are more than 9300 times more likely to die from interaction with the medical profession than being shot by accident. And even when murder is added into that statistic, you're still thousands of times more likely to die from a visit to the doctor or hospital or pharmacy.


And, statistically, Surfstar, you will become sick many times in your lifetime. While you may be healthy now, the long term running averages continually increase as does your age. You will, most certianly, have multiple occasions to come in contact with the medical profession throughout your lifetime. In fact, you're FAR more likely to have a major medical event in your life than experience violent crime. If you recall as my data shows, violent crime has been going down for more than two decades, whereas medical visits continue to rise each and every year. Medical "events" so grossly overshadow crime it's nearly impossible to conceieve a reasonable ratio of one to the other. Each and every visit to a medical entity is a possible death waiting to happen, just as every step into the local bar may result in your being killed by a gun, a knife, a broken beer bottle, or bar stool upside your skull. But that's just how we live our lives; we accept that all things have risk.


So once again, you seem to ignore factual data and live by tainted perception. You feel as though you're not at medical risk, but the reality is you are; you will end up at the doctor's office or hospital at some point, and as you age, that propensity will become ever greater. What is ironic is that you believe there is risk in "going about your daily life" by being shot, but somehow there is no risk of you ever needing medical intervention, which could come from an accident that you have no control over, just as you claim when it comes to being shot. No one wants to get hit by another car any more than they want to be shot. Both represent risk.

But the risk of death is FAR GREATER when you have a medical event. NINE-THOUSAND-THREE-HUNDRED times greater.

Again - I am not trying to be rude or mean and imply you are stupid; that's not my intent here. But I'm trying to get you to apply a fair, conscionable sense of acceptance to facts, rather than simply hoping your view is true. The very statement of yours above shows that you are not applying equal opportunity to the potential of events. You believe you have no chance of dying from a medical event, but you somehow seem to think you may be shot. And yet you are super-duper-way-more likely to die from medicine than bullets.

FACTS DON'T LIE.
 
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This makes for some pretty entertaining reading. I'm always amused with the gun arguments and justifications.
I came across this a little while ago. Even our old prime minister John Howard makes an appearance.

There's plenty of material to poke holes in. I'm sure it'll be shot (no pun intended) down in flames though.
smile.gif


Part 1 http://youtu.be/9pOiOhxujsE
Part 2 http://youtu.be/TYbY45rHj8w
Part 3 http://youtu.be/mVuspKSjfgA
 
Originally Posted By: dnewton3
Originally Posted By: surfstar
dnewton3 - if I am not sick, I have a near 0% chance of being killed by a medical mistake. Going about my daily life, there is a very small chance of being randomly shot, but it still is there.

I believe that modern medicine saves quite a few more lives than gun ownership does.



First of all, your statement presumes that all medical deaths only happen to "sick" people. That is not true at all. There are many different causational events that would put you into the medical profession; illness is only one of them. Uncontrolled accidents and even planned events also put you there. So for you to state that you have "0% chance of being killed by a medical mistake" is patently false. If you were struck by a vehicle, and lived to make it to the hospital for surgeory, but died on the table, that most certinaly is not "0%" chance, just because you were not sick. Clearly, you're not willing to look at this through anything but rose-colored glasses. You seem to want to allow bias that would justify your cause, rather than simply look at facts from an overall viewpoint.

Secondly, if you'd like to have a conversation about how many lives are "saved" by medicine and guns, that is a completely different topic, but I can assure you the data is very positive on both fronts. I suspect you have a very limited, or tainted, view of how many guns save lives. If you wish to have that converstaion, then start a new thread. But I assure you I will be there with real facts and data to bolster my position; what are you going to bring to the conversation? I will bring data mined from the CDC, AMA, BJS, FBI, OJP, etc. To date, in the topic of gun deaths and crime, you've brought zilch to support your portion of the debate. Will this proposed topic be any different?

Now, I completely agree that modern medicine can help do things that were impractical or impossible decades ago. But just as gun ownership is a double-edged sword, so is medicine. I never said we should abondon our medical system; that's plain silly. I use the medical systems that are in place here, just as most others do. I appreciate that we have some of the best care in the world, and it does offer opportunities that never existed before. I support the use and advances of modern medicine. But I do so while acknowledging the inherrent risks therein. In fact, the more specialized our medical world becomes, it can not only provide ever greater opportunities, but also greater risks, as minute interactions of all manners can have dire, deadly consequences. Some prescription medicines that didn't even exist years ago, can save lives today, but also are so similar and easily mis-spelled, that one wrong interpretation of a script can lead to death. That is just ONE example of how great medicine ends badly.

The FACTS show that far more people die from iatragenisis every year than from guns; way, far more. As my data shows, you are more than 9300 times more likely to die from interaction with the medical profession than being shot by accident. And even when murder is added into that statistic, you're still thousands of times more likely to die from a visit to the doctor or hospital or pharmacy.


And, statistically, Surfstar, you will become sick many times in your lifetime. While you may be healthy now, the long term running averages continually increase as does your age. You will, most certianly, have multiple occasions to come in contact with the medical profession throughout your lifetime. In fact, you're FAR more likely to have a major medical event in your life than experience violent crime. If you recall as my data shows, violent crime has been going down for more than two decades, whereas medical visits continue to rise each and every year. Medical "events" so grossly overshadow crime it's nearly impossible to conceieve a reasonable ratio of one to the other. Each and every visit to a medical entity is a possible death waiting to happen, just as every step into the local bar may result in your being killed by a gun, a knife, a broken beer bottle, or bar stool upside your skull. But that's just how we live our lives; we accept that all things have risk.


So once again, you seem to ignore factual data and live by tainted perception. You feel as though you're not at medical risk, but the reality is you are; you will end up at the doctor's office or hospital at some point, and as you age, that propensity will become ever greater. What is ironic is that you believe there is risk in "going about your daily life" by being shot, but somehow there is no risk of you ever needing medical intervention, which could come from an accident that you have no control over, just as you claim when it comes to being shot. No one wants to get hit by another car any more than they want to be shot. Both represent risk.

But the risk of death is FAR GREATER when you have a medical event. NINE-THOUSAND-THREE-HUNDRED times greater.

Again - I am not trying to be rude or mean and imply you are stupid; that's not my intent here. But I'm trying to get you to apply a fair, conscionable sense of acceptance to facts, rather than simply hoping your view is true. The very statement of yours above shows that you are not applying equal opportunity to the potential of events. You believe you have no chance of dying from a medical event, but you somehow seem to think you may be shot. And yet you are super-duper-way-more likely to die from medicine than bullets.

FACTS DON'T LIE.

It seems that your FACTS show that having a gun isn't likely going to help you at all, unless you can carry into the operating room...
Or, on average, everyone would be better served by not spending their money on guns, but on better health insurance to get into a better hospital.

Don't get me wrong I like guns, but mine stay at home ready to dispatch a predator, or put some meat on the table.
 
Originally Posted By: IndyIan


Don't get me wrong I like guns, but mine stay at home ready to dispatch a predator, or put some meat on the table.


Let's hope you don't come across a predator when you are out and about, or you may become the meat on his table.
 
Originally Posted By: pottymouth
Originally Posted By: IndyIan


Don't get me wrong I like guns, but mine stay at home ready to dispatch a predator, or put some meat on the table.


Let's hope you don't come across a predator when you are out and about, or you may become the meat on his table.


I know people get bent out of shape when I say fearmongering, but come on, this is talking out of both sides of the mouth.

One side days violent crime is way down (and Ive given data that the USA is less violent as a whole than other nations with more gun control, but the chance of dying IS higher), due to more guns, fine I buy that.

But at the same time, if violent crime is way down, then what's the need to push further and further arming of the citizens given the ever dropping crime? And why is the crime in states like FL and SC higher? They are surely more rural and less densely populated than a state like NJ, which is proven safer and has more gun control.

Gun ownership and ability to carry is a personal decision (both of which should be guaranteed under 2A and that ability, SUBTLE implementation issues aside, should be preserved by all states, which is my issue), and I think that fearmongering, even if there is a good deal of truth in it, is as toxic as anything else. Its as bad to make claims like above, as it is for anti-gun folks to make comments like "I hope the gun owners have to clean the kids splattered brains off of the walls at school" (yes, I have heard that one, personally, more than once in my personal pushes for more 2A rights in NJ).

Ive provided facts, youre far less likely to die of a gun related incident, or ANY violence related incident, in the countries with strict gun control.

The outlier and the one that should be focused upon is Switzerland, where the overall violent crime death rates are even lower than the gun control areas, even though the gun deaths from homicide are higher. That to me indicates an armed, safe society.

But that means a lot more taxes, a lot more government impleemnted programs, a lot more healthcare, a lot more monitoring, so that the situation can be apples to apples with a country like Switzerland.

Of course with all the discussions of cars and doctors, it seems that many would prefer the requirement of training, licensing, registering, and insuring the firearms, the way we train, license, register and insure doctors and cars.
 
Originally Posted By: JHZR2
The outlier and the one that should be focused upon is Switzerland, where the overall violent crime death rates are even lower than the gun control areas, even though the gun deaths from homicide are higher. That to me indicates an armed, safe society.


I'll hold up Singapore as similar example to Switzerland with the exception of strict gun control in Singapore. Well educated, wealthy, relatively homogeneous population... low crime.

I hypothesize socioeconomic factors are more likely to influence violent crime rates than gun ownership and gun laws.

It is my guess per capita income, urban/rural split, poverty rate, life expectancy, literacy rate, illegal drug use, level of education, and even degree of homogeneity of race and/or religion of a city or country all affect crime. rate.

If we look at Census data with a simple violent crime rate (http://www.census.gov/statab/ranks/rank21.html), we see places like Washington DC with the highest crime rate despite strict gun control laws. South Carolina is #1 of the states while South Dakota is #46, both of which are considered gun friendly states. New Jersey and New York are listed at #22 and #26, respectively, which are mid-pack despite strict gun control laws.

When you look at intrastate figures, things get very interesting. You'll have two cities or counties with near-identical laws with a wide disparity in crime rates.

Or, get down to the intracity level:
http://maps.nyc.gov/crime/

I'm a gun guy, carry a pistol frequently, etc. But, I'm not convinced it's gun laws or gun ownership that have the biggest effect on crime.



PS - dnewton3, the beer's on me if you're ever in Nebraska.
 
Originally Posted By: pottymouth
Originally Posted By: IndyIan


Don't get me wrong I like guns, but mine stay at home ready to dispatch a predator, or put some meat on the table.


Let's hope you don't come across a predator when you are out and about, or you may become the meat on his table.

Like Dnewton3 pointed out, I worry more about staying out of the hospital than being randomly attacked and I make it a policy to avoid making mortal enemies...
 
Originally Posted By: JHZR2
I know people get bent out of shape when I say fearmongering, but come on, this is talking out of both sides of the mouth.



I just love how it's fearmongering when I want to be prepared for the very unlikely event that I encounter someone who intends to do me harm, but it's not fearmongering when others want the law abiding populace to be disarmed to avoid the much more unlikely event that one of us will kill schoolchildren.

So that I am not accused of "talking out of both sides of the mouth" let me be clear.

I believe in my 2A rights. I do not care what other people in other countries do. I do not care what my neighbors want to do. If they wish to be unarmed, I fully support that. I do not accept anyone's effort to disarm me. Do what you like and leave me alone.

I do not need to justify my 2A rights. No one does. I don't care what the statistics say. I don't care if my chances of getting hit by lightning on the 4th of July during a hailstorm are better than my chances of needing to defend myself with a gun. It's all irrelevant.

If there is a one in a BILLION chance that I will need a gun, I want to have one. It is my right. I am harming no one. If you or anyone else wants to keep your gun at home because you feel there is no chance you could need it, fine by me. I hope you are right. To use the crime statistics you keep referring to, at least a few of you will be wrong every day. Perhaps the families of those who are innocent victims will feel better knowing that their dead loved one is statistically insignificant.
 
Originally Posted By: IndyIan
Originally Posted By: pottymouth
Originally Posted By: IndyIan


Don't get me wrong I like guns, but mine stay at home ready to dispatch a predator, or put some meat on the table.


Let's hope you don't come across a predator when you are out and about, or you may become the meat on his table.

Like Dnewton3 pointed out, I worry more about staying out of the hospital than being randomly attacked and I make it a policy to avoid making mortal enemies...


Fine by me. I just hope that you would respect my right to choose differently.

I see no reason that preparation for larger risks and smaller risks must be mutually exclusive.
 
Originally Posted By: pottymouth
I do not need to justify my 2A rights. No one does. I don't care what the statistics say. I don't care if my chances of getting hit by lightning on the 4th of July during a hailstorm are better than my chances of needing to defend myself with a gun. It's all irrelevant.


Agreed. It's not the odds, it's the stakes.
 
This makes sense. It is very unlikely a person carrying a gun legally with a concealed carry permit would ever actually need the gun. But if the rare attack did happen to that person, they would be very happy they DID have the gun.

And I don't mind if there are people carrying concealed handguns with a concealed carry permit. It makes all of us safer because the bad guys don't know if a potential victim is carrying or not.

One thing I know for sure: If somebody breaks into my house and threatens me, I will try to call 911 if I can, but for sure that attacker will be facing one of my two handguns. A meek victim is just a loser.
 
Originally Posted By: pottymouth
Originally Posted By: JHZR2
I know people get bent out of shape when I say fearmongering, but come on, this is talking out of both sides of the mouth.



I just love how it's fearmongering when I want to be prepared for the very unlikely event that I encounter someone who intends to do me harm, but it's not fearmongering when others want the law abiding populace to be disarmed to avoid the much more unlikely event that one of us will kill schoolchildren.

So that I am not accused of "talking out of both sides of the mouth" let me be clear.

I believe in my 2A rights. I do not care what other people in other countries do. I do not care what my neighbors want to do. If they wish to be unarmed, I fully support that. I do not accept anyone's effort to disarm me. Do what you like and leave me alone.

I do not need to justify my 2A rights. No one does. I don't care what the statistics say. I don't care if my chances of getting hit by lightning on the 4th of July during a hailstorm are better than my chances of needing to defend myself with a gun. It's all irrelevant.

If there is a one in a BILLION chance that I will need a gun, I want to have one. It is my right. I am harming no one. If you or anyone else wants to keep your gun at home because you feel there is no chance you could need it, fine by me. I hope you are right. To use the crime statistics you keep referring to, at least a few of you will be wrong every day. Perhaps the families of those who are innocent victims will feel better knowing that their dead loved one is statistically insignificant.



So paragraph one you say that school shootings are unlikely, as a basis of your argument, then last sentence you take exception at a victim being lost in the statistics?

Go back to newtons point about facts. Were pulling numbers to make an argument based upon realities, not telling someone that they will be meat on a predator's table,

Nobody is asking you to justify anything. The point is that someone becoming meat on a predators table is every bit as harmful to creating rational arguments based upon facts, as was the intent here, as saying that people will have to clean dead schoolkids' brains off of walls. Both are meant to be inflammatory and create fear and prevent logical, intelligent discussion. Most folks on here, myself included, want to and try to protect 2A. But dnewton's point, though I've mentioned why I disagree with using cars and doctors in the argument, is still a good one. Facts and logical, rational discussion is what is needed.
 
Originally Posted By: JHZR2

So paragraph one you say that school shootings are unlikely, as a basis of your argument, then last sentence you take exception at a victim being lost in the statistics?

Go back to newtons point about facts. Were pulling numbers to make an argument based upon realities, not telling someone that they will be meat on a predator's table,

Nobody is asking you to justify anything. The point is that someone becoming meat on a predators table is every bit as harmful to creating rational arguments based upon facts, as was the intent here, as saying that people will have to clean dead schoolkids' brains off of walls. Both are meant to be inflammatory and create fear and prevent logical, intelligent discussion. Most folks on here, myself included, want to and try to protect 2A. But dnewton's point, though I've mentioned why I disagree with using cars and doctors in the argument, is still a good one. Facts and logical, rational discussion is what is needed.


Really? And what is it you are doing? In one breath you say that pulling numbers is necessary to make rational arguments, and in another you say that you're not asking me to justify anything? Which is it? Why do I need a rational argument if I don't have to justify my position?

I will not play by your rules because to do so legitimizes the position that my rights are open to negotiation. They are not. All supporters of 2A rights must take this to heart. The moment you engage in this "logical, intelligent discussion" is the moment you put your right at risk.

My initial comment to IndyIan was simply an attempt to get a gun owner to think about his own perceptions. He has made his opinion perfectly clear. He feels as though the need to protect himself beyond his own property line is insignificant. I disagree, but that's OK with me. I am in no way making any kind of argument that the right to keep and bear arms is tied to self defense. It's not tied to anything. It is a right, plain and simple.
 
Originally Posted By: pottymouth
I will not play by your rules because to do so legitimizes the position that my rights are open to negotiation. They are not. All supporters of 2A rights must take this to heart. The moment you engage in this "logical, intelligent discussion" is the moment you put your right at risk.

Interesting thought.

I've always felt that our Constitutional rights could withstand any conversation or challenge that one could throw at them. Maybe that's just me.

You seem to be suggesting that discussion and negotiation are the same thing. Why is that?
 
Originally Posted By: d00df00d
Originally Posted By: pottymouth
I will not play by your rules because to do so legitimizes the position that my rights are open to negotiation. They are not. All supporters of 2A rights must take this to heart. The moment you engage in this "logical, intelligent discussion" is the moment you put your right at risk.

Interesting thought.

I've always felt that our Constitutional rights could withstand any conversation or challenge that one could throw at them. Maybe that's just me.

You seem to be suggesting that discussion and negotiation are the same thing. Why is that?


If you're paying attention to all the anti-2A legislative efforts going on in this country, you cannot think that this topic is academic.
 
Originally Posted By: JHZR2
..... And why is the crime in states like FL and SC higher? They are surely more rural and less densely populated than a state like NJ, which is proven safer and has more gun control.
....


Because the heat, humidity, snakes, and mosquitoes eventually makes us snap.

Seriously, I don't know about FL or SC but I'll take a WAG about my state:

Recidivism (sp?): All too common to read of a killer taking a manslaughter plea only to get out after ten to fifteen and kill again.

Illegals: We're overrun with them down here. They ain't all nice.

Legals: The worst mass killer in my state came here from New Mexico. Many of the murders committed here have been by non residents. That makes us look bad and others look better at our expense.

I don't think it's useful to compare Switzerland or Europe with the USA. We aren't them.
 
Originally Posted By: pottymouth
Originally Posted By: JHZR2

So paragraph one you say that school shootings are unlikely, as a basis of your argument, then last sentence you take exception at a victim being lost in the statistics?

Go back to newtons point about facts. Were pulling numbers to make an argument based upon realities, not telling someone that they will be meat on a predator's table,

Nobody is asking you to justify anything. The point is that someone becoming meat on a predators table is every bit as harmful to creating rational arguments based upon facts, as was the intent here, as saying that people will have to clean dead schoolkids' brains off of walls. Both are meant to be inflammatory and create fear and prevent logical, intelligent discussion. Most folks on here, myself included, want to and try to protect 2A. But dnewton's point, though I've mentioned why I disagree with using cars and doctors in the argument, is still a good one. Facts and logical, rational discussion is what is needed.


Really? And what is it you are doing? In one breath you say that pulling numbers is necessary to make rational arguments, and in another you say that you're not asking me to justify anything? Which is it? Why do I need a rational argument if I don't have to justify my position?

I will not play by your rules because to do so legitimizes the position that my rights are open to negotiation. They are not. All supporters of 2A rights must take this to heart. The moment you engage in this "logical, intelligent discussion" is the moment you put your right at risk.

My initial comment to IndyIan was simply an attempt to get a gun owner to think about his own perceptions. He has made his opinion perfectly clear. He feels as though the need to protect himself beyond his own property line is insignificant. I disagree, but that's OK with me. I am in no way making any kind of argument that the right to keep and bear arms is tied to self defense. It's not tied to anything. It is a right, plain and simple.



I took exception at you pushing fear that people are going to be meat on a table, just like I take exception that people use images of cleaning childrens' brains off of walls. In other words either side of the conversation. Just above you mention the anti 2A stuff going on. Sorry, but it is something that people are talking about, and perhaps are brainwashed over, but that is on minds and creates responses.

The whole point is that a stupid response by a pro-2A person, even if they are right, is as toxic as anything that the anti 2A folks can do or say. Insisting that you're right and then going and playing ostrich just means that your rights will be pulled away while your head is in the sand.

That's why dnewton's comments are so great. Those who wish to argue and try to logically remove our rights can only be defeated by equal logic that is rational and true. What dnewton put up is very much that way. I prefer using intelligent discourse. Fanaticism of blown out brains or being meat on someone's table does nothing.
 
Originally Posted By: pottymouth
Originally Posted By: d00df00d
Originally Posted By: pottymouth
I will not play by your rules because to do so legitimizes the position that my rights are open to negotiation. They are not. All supporters of 2A rights must take this to heart. The moment you engage in this "logical, intelligent discussion" is the moment you put your right at risk.

Interesting thought.

I've always felt that our Constitutional rights could withstand any conversation or challenge that one could throw at them. Maybe that's just me.

You seem to be suggesting that discussion and negotiation are the same thing. Why is that?


If you're paying attention to all the anti-2A legislative efforts going on in this country, you cannot think that this topic is academic.


Look at it in Oz, every time they get "legitimate gun owners" (and the antis oft use the finger waving around "legitimate" when calling for it), we lose something else or have another impost.

Everything that they want (including a total hunting ban, and moving on to fishing) is "sensible", "reasonable",and "rational", while everything that "gun nuts" bring up is "wild west" and "watering down hard won laws".

I agree with pottymouth in sentiment, in that discussing same will be used (by some) to start colouring the second amendment in shades of grey, deligitimising it a little at a time.
 
Originally Posted By: Shannow
I agree with pottymouth in sentiment, in that discussing same will be used (by some) to start colouring the second amendment in shades of grey, deligitimising it a little at a time.

I get that. What's troublesome is when people immediately assume that anyone who wants to talk about this stuff is a gun grabber that needs to be defended against.

It makes sense from a psychological standpoint. It's moral psychology 101: as soon as something trips our moral sensibilities, we (as in human beings) immediately flip into a mode in which we treat everything other than total unconditional agreement as a threat that must be repelled. Completely understandable. Just... really unfortunate I guess.
 
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