Trying to be non political here with my statement. I don't think it is really import / tariff / union / education / etc that makes our situation what we have today in the US.
Let's be honest here, the US economy has a pretty good run since the end of WWII till 911 because the rest of the world was ruined and we are the only one that has intact infrastructure / military to protect it, as well as the only buyer for a lot of the natural resources (oil, metal, coal) to build and sell to everyone else.
That's a good run, and we should have been grateful for it.
Now that the rest of the world is in peace / cold war and no longer have to spend huge money on defense instead of development, they too get back to stability and prosperity. They can now build things just as well in the case of Japan, South Korea, and Germany, or much better than before for much cheaper in the case of China, Mexico, and Vietnam. So we are not the only buyer and seller in the world anymore.
Then you add the balancing force of automation on top of the already high standard of living in the US, where relatively expensive labors compare to foreign nations are replaced by cheaper per capita automation. You get massive unemployment of low skill non protected works that aren't serving domestic market (non plumbers, non builders). In the next 10 years with additional robotics and automation, we'll see a lot of union jobs at dock and trucking being replaced. If you can build a driverless vehicle that's safe enough for passenger, why wouldn't you build a semi with driverless mode that can follow the first truck on interstate? You can probably cut the driver need down from 1 man per 2 trailers to 1 man per 10 trailers for 50% of the route time. Scary isn't it?
The reason we have fast casual restaurants is because tips are too expensive, and consumers don't want to tip when they can just order from the kiosk with a touch screen or a live person in midwest at home in PJ. How about if someone build a driverless car that can run errants for you to stores and the local amazon warehouse robot will just load the goods into your trunk at midnight? How many more jobs will be gone then?
I am grateful that I'm on the "gain" side of the automation boom, and I'm really worried for the people on the other side. Hope they can make it through, and I won't just call them lazy or make claims that everyone can make it across the transition.
Let's be honest here, the US economy has a pretty good run since the end of WWII till 911 because the rest of the world was ruined and we are the only one that has intact infrastructure / military to protect it, as well as the only buyer for a lot of the natural resources (oil, metal, coal) to build and sell to everyone else.
That's a good run, and we should have been grateful for it.
Now that the rest of the world is in peace / cold war and no longer have to spend huge money on defense instead of development, they too get back to stability and prosperity. They can now build things just as well in the case of Japan, South Korea, and Germany, or much better than before for much cheaper in the case of China, Mexico, and Vietnam. So we are not the only buyer and seller in the world anymore.
Then you add the balancing force of automation on top of the already high standard of living in the US, where relatively expensive labors compare to foreign nations are replaced by cheaper per capita automation. You get massive unemployment of low skill non protected works that aren't serving domestic market (non plumbers, non builders). In the next 10 years with additional robotics and automation, we'll see a lot of union jobs at dock and trucking being replaced. If you can build a driverless vehicle that's safe enough for passenger, why wouldn't you build a semi with driverless mode that can follow the first truck on interstate? You can probably cut the driver need down from 1 man per 2 trailers to 1 man per 10 trailers for 50% of the route time. Scary isn't it?
The reason we have fast casual restaurants is because tips are too expensive, and consumers don't want to tip when they can just order from the kiosk with a touch screen or a live person in midwest at home in PJ. How about if someone build a driverless car that can run errants for you to stores and the local amazon warehouse robot will just load the goods into your trunk at midnight? How many more jobs will be gone then?
I am grateful that I'm on the "gain" side of the automation boom, and I'm really worried for the people on the other side. Hope they can make it through, and I won't just call them lazy or make claims that everyone can make it across the transition.
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