Don't discount coal for a long while yet...

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Originally Posted By: PandaBear
Follow the Chinese, they as the owner of a dictatorship, producer of the energy, and consumer of the energy, knows what they are doing and what make sense.

People there complains about the pollution, and they know the limit on when a life is too cheap or too expensive to start reducing pollution. Last time I heard from a coworker based in China, his hometown's small scale coal mine got shut down because (either corruption to get rid of competition or not enough political influence) of local pollution of the mining, as well as small coal plants getting forced shutdown (less political influenced owner) and replaced by larger plants (more political influenced owner).

They build a few massive dams that changed the national landscape so they can power millions of people using hydro power (and suppress protests about the forced relocation and environmental damages).

They build more new nuke plants than the rest of the world combined, with different types of reactors from aboard and home grown technologies (from technology transfer), so they will have the best and the worst designs, but not all eggs in one basket, so they will not need to shut down all of the nukes if they find problems later (and they will).

They build all sorts of renewable just in case it takes off, so they will not be left behind with old power generations when the rest of the world move forwards.

And most importantly: they are leaders in the high voltage DC power grid, when the rest of the world (like the US) is stuck with local power transmission limitation that makes production inefficient and fluctuate rather than stabilize.


A dictatorship tends to have fewer "not in my backyard" problems that a democratic and free nation faces everyday.


Due to the sheer size, China is an absolutely fascinating one to watch. I covered this in a previous thread but it bares mention here:

~80% of China's power comes from coal. They have 907GW of installed coal capacity that generates ~4,000TWh of electricity per year. By far the largest generator by a massive margin.
2nd in line is hydro electric. They have 300GW of HE installed that generates ~900TWh of electricity per year. Less than 1/4 of what they get from coal.
3rd in line are the thermal mix of bio/natgas. 135GW installed, that generates ~200TWh of electricity per year.
4th in line is wind power. They have 90GW of installed capacity which generates ~140TWh of electricity per year.
5th in line is nuclear power. They have 21GW of nuclear installed which generates ~125TWh of electricity per year.
6th in line is solar power. They have 28GW of solar power installed which generates ~9TWh of electricity per year.

From an efficiency standpoint of installed capacity versus output the nukes win by a landslide. Coal comes in at 2nd place with solar bringing up the bottom with a rather pitiful showing. Despite the massive investments in alternatives, China still relies most heavily on coal power and it makes up the vast, VAST majority of their energy production. Personally, the only thing I see as a viable alternative is more nukes. They require so much capacity to replace that coal and we really do want them to stop burning coal. On the other hand, their mix of nuclear technologies is a bit of a worry. They have a few CANDU's as well as a some of the advanced flexible fuel CANDU's, but they also have a pretty broad cross section of other stuff. One assumes they are properly managed of course but still.......
21.gif
 
Originally Posted By: PandaBear
And most importantly: they are leaders in the high voltage DC power grid, when the rest of the world (like the US) is stuck with local power transmission limitation that makes production inefficient and fluctuate rather than stabilize.


Interesting statement, in that AC can be stepped up/down by transformers just about anywhere, making it more useful.

DC doesn't suffer from inductance and whatnot from adjacent lines, nor annoyances like the Ferranti effect, and every generator operating in Lock step...

But how does DC make production more efficient ?

How does it get stepped up/down in voltage without turning it BACK into AC ?
 
Just what is the thermal efficiency of a nuclear plant?

They are in the process of installing a high voltage DC line in the Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois and Indiana area. I believe they all terminate at a large inverter station.
 
Originally Posted By: SHOZ
Just what is the thermal efficiency of a nuclear plant?

They are in the process of installing a high voltage DC line in the Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois and Indiana area. I believe they all terminate at a large inverter station.


Probably around the same as a coal plant, since they both spin steam turbines. This is supported by this information (for the American plants):
http://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/html/epa_08_02.html

Which shows BTU per KWh with coal being the most efficient for steam turbine operation, but not by a big margin.

Averaging that data from 2007 to 2014 we get the following (for steam):

Coal: 10,124BTU/KWh = 33.7% efficiency
Petroleum: 10,327BTU/KWh = 33.0% efficiency
Nat Gas: 10,398BTU/KWh = 32.8% efficiency
Nuclear: 10,463BTU/KWh = 32.6% efficiency
 
Originally Posted By: Shannow
Originally Posted By: PandaBear
And most importantly: they are leaders in the high voltage DC power grid, when the rest of the world (like the US) is stuck with local power transmission limitation that makes production inefficient and fluctuate rather than stabilize.


Interesting statement, in that AC can be stepped up/down by transformers just about anywhere, making it more useful.

DC doesn't suffer from inductance and whatnot from adjacent lines, nor annoyances like the Ferranti effect, and every generator operating in Lock step...

But how does DC make production more efficient ?

How does it get stepped up/down in voltage without turning it BACK into AC ?
Inverters for voltage conversion and dc to ac. Long ac power lines can get close enough to a wavelength that they RADIATE power, which is a loss.
 
Last edited:
Originally Posted By: OVERKILL
Originally Posted By: PandaBear
Follow the Chinese, they as the owner of a dictatorship, producer of the energy, and consumer of the energy, knows what they are doing and what make sense.

People there complains about the pollution, and they know the limit on when a life is too cheap or too expensive to start reducing pollution. Last time I heard from a coworker based in China, his hometown's small scale coal mine got shut down because (either corruption to get rid of competition or not enough political influence) of local pollution of the mining, as well as small coal plants getting forced shutdown (less political influenced owner) and replaced by larger plants (more political influenced owner).

They build a few massive dams that changed the national landscape so they can power millions of people using hydro power (and suppress protests about the forced relocation and environmental damages).

They build more new nuke plants than the rest of the world combined, with different types of reactors from aboard and home grown technologies (from technology transfer), so they will have the best and the worst designs, but not all eggs in one basket, so they will not need to shut down all of the nukes if they find problems later (and they will).

They build all sorts of renewable just in case it takes off, so they will not be left behind with old power generations when the rest of the world move forwards.

And most importantly: they are leaders in the high voltage DC power grid, when the rest of the world (like the US) is stuck with local power transmission limitation that makes production inefficient and fluctuate rather than stabilize.


A dictatorship tends to have fewer "not in my backyard" problems that a democratic and free nation faces everyday.


Due to the sheer size, China is an absolutely fascinating one to watch. I covered this in a previous thread but it bares mention here:

~80% of China's power comes from coal. They have 907GW of installed coal capacity that generates ~4,000TWh of electricity per year. By far the largest generator by a massive margin.
2nd in line is hydro electric. They have 300GW of HE installed that generates ~900TWh of electricity per year. Less than 1/4 of what they get from coal.
3rd in line are the thermal mix of bio/natgas. 135GW installed, that generates ~200TWh of electricity per year.
4th in line is wind power. They have 90GW of installed capacity which generates ~140TWh of electricity per year.
5th in line is nuclear power. They have 21GW of nuclear installed which generates ~125TWh of electricity per year.
6th in line is solar power. They have 28GW of solar power installed which generates ~9TWh of electricity per year.

From an efficiency standpoint of installed capacity versus output the nukes win by a landslide. Coal comes in at 2nd place with solar bringing up the bottom with a rather pitiful showing. Despite the massive investments in alternatives, China still relies most heavily on coal power and it makes up the vast, VAST majority of their energy production. Personally, the only thing I see as a viable alternative is more nukes. They require so much capacity to replace that coal and we really do want them to stop burning coal. On the other hand, their mix of nuclear technologies is a bit of a worry. They have a few CANDU's as well as a some of the advanced flexible fuel CANDU's, but they also have a pretty broad cross section of other stuff. One assumes they are properly managed of course but still.......
21.gif


As Dilbert's boss once said "I'm expecting some fallout from this" to which Dilbert replied "So am I".
 
Originally Posted By: HerrS

Inverters for voltage conversion and dc to ac. Long ac power lines can get close enough to a wavelength that they RADIATE power, which is a loss.


Like an antenna? NO. That's not a consideration at all.

Efficiency has no play in the decision for AC or DC lines. Its an operational consideration. With DC you can make power flow where it might not on an AC line. It also helps system stability, by dampening out system bumps.
 
Originally Posted By: turtlevette
Efficiency has no play in the decision for AC or DC lines. Its an operational consideration. With DC you can make power flow where it might not on an AC line. It also helps system stability, by dampening out system bumps.


yep, disconnects the generators from frequency, so they can just pump in energy, not get dragged to blade flutter by the grid.

Originally Posted By: turtlevette
I believe coal is more efficient because of the superheat loop.


1000F steam temps with my plant, plus 1,000F reheat cycle, 10.3 heat rate ... 34.9% sent out.
 
Originally Posted By: SHOZ
Just what is the thermal efficiency of a nuclear plant?


about the same as a wind turbine, and 50% better than a solar panel...why ?
 
Originally Posted By: Shannow
Originally Posted By: SHOZ
Just what is the thermal efficiency of a nuclear plant?


about the same as a wind turbine, and 50% better than a solar panel...why ?
I've been told by a knowledgeable fellow in the nuclear industry that only about 5% of the thermal energy is extracted from the fuel. This is in the US.
 
Originally Posted By: turtlevette
Originally Posted By: HerrS

Inverters for voltage conversion and dc to ac. Long ac power lines can get close enough to a wavelength that they RADIATE power, which is a loss.


Like an antenna? NO. That's not a consideration at all.

Efficiency has no play in the decision for AC or DC lines. Its an operational consideration. With DC you can make power flow where it might not on an AC line. It also helps system stability, by dampening out system bumps.
Yes, like an antenna, jack, why not look it up instead of talking through your hat.
 
Originally Posted By: HerrStig
Originally Posted By: turtlevette
Originally Posted By: HerrS

Inverters for voltage conversion and dc to ac. Long ac power lines can get close enough to a wavelength that they RADIATE power, which is a loss.


Like an antenna? NO. That's not a consideration at all.

Efficiency has no play in the decision for AC or DC lines. Its an operational consideration. With DC you can make power flow where it might not on an AC line. It also helps system stability, by dampening out system bumps.
Yes, like an antenna, jack, why not look it up instead of talking through your hat.


I will not "look it up" because I know it's bull as most of the stuff I see you post. I love all the know it all "drivers" around.
 
Originally Posted By: SHOZ
Originally Posted By: Shannow
Originally Posted By: SHOZ
Just what is the thermal efficiency of a nuclear plant?


about the same as a wind turbine, and 50% better than a solar panel...why ?
I've been told by a knowledgeable fellow in the nuclear industry that only about 5% of the thermal energy is extracted from the fuel. This is in the US.


That may very well be the case. Of the available energy in a uranium pellet rod, very little of it is used before the rod is "spent" and no longer an adequate contributor. However, this is I believe, approximately a year or two process in a typical GE-style reactor, at which point the fuel, or a portion of, must be swapped out. And this of course assumes enriched fuel. In a CANDU plant, the fuel burns faster due to not being enriched, however its fuel is swapped out "on-the-fly" via robot, so there is no downtime.

A little blurb on it covers some of this here:
Nuclear fuel cycle

Quote:
Several hundred fuel assemblies make up the core of a reactor.* For a reactor with an output of 1000 megawatts (MWe), the core would contain about 75 tonnes of low-enriched uranium. In the reactor core the U-235 isotope fissions or splits, producing a lot of heat in a continuous process called a chain reaction. The process depends on the presence of a moderator such as water or graphite, and is fully controlled.

* up to about 250 in a PWR, two or three times as many in a BWR.

Some of the U-238 in the reactor core is turned into plutonium and about half of this is also fissioned, providing about one-third of the reactor's energy output (or more than half in CANDU).

As in fossil-fuel burning electricity generating plants, the heat is used to produce steam to drive a turbine and an electric generator, in a 1000 MWe unit providing over 8 billion kilowatt hours (8 TWh) of electricity in one year.

To maintain efficient reactor performance, about one-third of the spent fuel is removed every year or 18 months, to be replaced with fresh fuel.* The length of fuel cycle is correlated with the use of burnable absorbers in the fuel, allowing higher burn-up.

* In the USA about 85% of reactors have an 18-month fuel cycle, a few have 24-month ones. In Asia, over 80% have 18-month cycles, the rest 12-month. In Europe, over 60% have 12-month cycles, the balance 18-month, and over one-quarter do not use burnable absorbers. All reactors in the USA and Asia use burnable absorbers. So 18 months is a typical worldwide refuelling interval.

Typically, some 44 million kilowatt-hours of electricity are produced from one tonne of natural uranium. The production of this amount of electrical power from fossil fuels would require the burning of over 20,000 tonnes of black coal or 8.5 million cubic metres of gas.


The amazing part is what I have underlined above. That given how little of the potential of the uranium is used to make steam, and subsequently power; that so much is still left on the table when with one run through the reactor, that per ton of fuel, it is 20,000 times more efficient than coal.

As I've mentioned before (and I apologize for repeating myself) but this fuel is fully able to be reprocessed. It is through policy and politics that it is not. On that same page, the Nuclear Fuel Cycle is covered, which includes the reprocessing of fuel as is done in Europe. China is using the latest CANDU's to burn the spent fuel from their US reactors from what I recall. They have two of these plants now. We can continue to extract the potential from these rods/pellets through these additional processes; continue to use this fuel to make vast amounts of electricity. It is really quite disgusting that this is not being done in North America. Simultaneously reducing spent fuel stores and creating great amounts of electricity.
 
Originally Posted By: SHOZ
Originally Posted By: Shannow
Originally Posted By: SHOZ
Just what is the thermal efficiency of a nuclear plant?


about the same as a wind turbine, and 50% better than a solar panel...why ?
I've been told by a knowledgeable fellow in the nuclear industry that only about 5% of the thermal energy is extracted from the fuel. This is in the US.


Ahhh, THAT old chestnut...we've been across that before if you recall...use enriched fuel and don't reprocess it, and stupid stuff like that falls out.

Using THAT logic, what's the thermal efficiency of a Thorium reactor that makes it's own fuel ?
 
IEEFA: 40% of Texas coal generation at risk for retirement


A new report released by Public Citizen and the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) predicts seven of Texas' 19 coal plants are losing money — possibly to the tune of $160 million annually — and will likely be shuttered if wholesale power prices do not rebound.
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) published a long-term resource assessment this summer that estimated nearly 10 GW of coal generation will retire by 2031, with almost all of it replaced by solar.
Coal makes up about a quarter of the state's generation right now, but renewables are being integrated quickly. ERCOT expects solar capacity will grow from 3% to 17% of the capacity mix.
 
That's an absolutely obscene amount of solar
crazy2.gif
If 10MW takes up 200 acres and we are talking 10,000MW, you are looking at 200,000 acres of solar panels for 10GW nameplate, which of course we can't use based on efficiency since we are talking directly about replacing a turbine, so using the 20% figure, you are looking at roughly 1,000,000 acres of solar panels to match the capacity of coal. Now, I'm sure solar is cheaper in the states, and panels are cheaper now than when we put in our 10MW field, but we paid 45 million. Scaled up to 10GW, you are looking at $45,000,000,000 to match nameplate.

So 45 billion spent because the plants are losing 160 million annually? And the panels have a lifespan of about 15-20 years. Something about that math doesn't smell right
21.gif
 
Originally Posted By: OVERKILL
That's an absolutely obscene amount of solar
crazy2.gif
If 10MW takes up 200 acres and we are talking 10,000MW, you are looking at 200,000 acres of solar panels for 10GW nameplate, which of course we can't use based on efficiency since we are talking directly about replacing a turbine, so using the 20% figure, you are looking at roughly 1,000,000 acres of solar panels to match the capacity of coal. Now, I'm sure solar is cheaper in the states, and panels are cheaper now than when we put in our 10MW field, but we paid 45 million. Scaled up to 10GW, you are looking at $45,000,000,000 to match nameplate.

So 45 billion spent because the plants are losing 160 million annually? And the panels have a lifespan of about 15-20 years. Something about that math doesn't smell right
21.gif

To supply 1000 homes with solar (1 GWh of electricity a year), NREL finds that about 2.8 acres are needed for solar panels, whether they be concentrating or solar PV.

http://www.sustainablebusiness.com/index.cfm/go/news.display/id/25130
 
Originally Posted By: SHOZ
Originally Posted By: OVERKILL
That's an absolutely obscene amount of solar
crazy2.gif
If 10MW takes up 200 acres and we are talking 10,000MW, you are looking at 200,000 acres of solar panels for 10GW nameplate, which of course we can't use based on efficiency since we are talking directly about replacing a turbine, so using the 20% figure, you are looking at roughly 1,000,000 acres of solar panels to match the capacity of coal. Now, I'm sure solar is cheaper in the states, and panels are cheaper now than when we put in our 10MW field, but we paid 45 million. Scaled up to 10GW, you are looking at $45,000,000,000 to match nameplate.

So 45 billion spent because the plants are losing 160 million annually? And the panels have a lifespan of about 15-20 years. Something about that math doesn't smell right
21.gif

To supply 1000 homes with solar (1 GWh of electricity a year), NREL finds that about 2.8 acres are needed for solar panels, whether they be concentrating or solar PV.

http://www.sustainablebusiness.com/index.cfm/go/news.display/id/25130


The article says 10GW, not 10GWh. There's a rather significant difference there. Our (the province of Ontario) 280MW of installed solar produced 250GWh of power in 2015. In contrast, the 3.8GW of wind produced 9,000GWh. If we wanted something to compare to the coal being replaced here, our 13GW of nukes produced 92,300GWh. So use your head, using those numbers, how much solar do you need to match the output of the nukes? That's the same math you will need to apply to the coal plants.

And these are real numbers from actual power generation, not from some website pimping renewables.
 
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