Bad news continued...

[Tempest]

Originally Posted By: d00df00d

News flash: Practically ALL oil EVERYWHERE will be gone before you can say "freedom." If current trends -- not consumption, but trends -- continue, opening up every single possible oil well will give us maybe another couple of decades' worth of oil in exchange for the total destruction of vital ecosystems and water sources.

We can get energy from ecosystems. We can't get water or food from crude oil. This isn't about environmentalists vs. the economy; it's about people who understand that we're about to run out of oil vs. people who don't care and want stuff now.


I would love to see a credible link that says all oil will be gone in 20 years. The oceans were supposed be completely dead in 10 years....20 years ago. Oil was supposed to run out in the 1930's and yet.....

Please show me a viable source of energy from "ecosystems". Have you learned nothing from Europe?

 

[d00df00d]

Originally Posted By: Tempest
I would love to see a credible link that says all oil will be gone in 20 years.

Really? I'd hate to see such a thing. We aren't ready.

What does that have to do with my post, by the way? I was talking about how much untapped resources would extend our supply and prolong the drying-up of oil resources. I didn't put a number on how long the total supply will last.

I did say "soon." If you know anything about exponential growth and are able to think in terms of real time rather than just the next few decades, you will understand why I said that. If not, feel free to conclude that you have won the argument; I don't feel like educating you just so we can continue.


Originally Posted By: Tempest
Please show me a viable source of energy from "ecosystems". Have you learned nothing from Europe?

I said it was possible, not that it was necessarily viable. The point was that it could be done in a pinch, whereas the reverse is (as far as we know) impossible.

 

[Tempest]

Originally Posted By: d00df00d
I don't feel like educating you just so we can continue.

Now that is quite the dodge!

You said:
Quote:
Practically ALL oil EVERYWHERE will be gone before you can say "freedom." If current trends -- not consumption, but trends -- continue, opening up every single possible oil well will give us maybe another couple of decades' worth of oil in exchange for the total destruction of vital ecosystems and water sources.

So you are posting ridiculous claims without anything to back them up?
And you say that I need to be "educated"?

 

[d00df00d]

Originally Posted By: Tempest
And you say that I need to be "educated"?

The common thread in all of your responses to me is that whatever you think you're responding to bears little resemblance to what I actually said. Either you can't read, I am horribly inarticulate, or you're just trolling. Whatever the case, I think we're done. Sorry.

 

[Tempest]

And I was so hoping to be educated and schooled today. Oh, well.

 

[Steve S]

Seems the price on oil is what really is the problem. There is not a shortage at the pumps other than what is manipulated. We were supposed to run out of oil in the 70s then 80s then there was peak oil. We want out 9 mpg SUVs and pickups and the gas for cheap. Blame the government !!! How many dinosaurs could there have been to make all the oil that is pumped from the earth? Fossil fuel??? stupid scientist have stupid people believing B.S.

 

[Panzerman]

I agree, about the Fossil fuels, being a hoax. Oil may be carbon based. But there is way too much already for it to come from dead dinos, think about that. Easy oil is still out there, but the line between safe to the enviroment and getting the oil has become so screwed up, its not about protecting resources, now its about protecting every animal, insect, bird and habitat for them. Can anyone tell me the benefits of a TURTLE, what do they really do, thats benficial. During the oil spill they claimed the oil killed living organisms, that could not even be seen by the human eye, so when does the enivomental/production line belong? Further more Mr. DooFood, you should probably educate yourself with common sense and think outside the box, instead of what you read from one side. What exactly makes you think we are not prepared to run out of oil, the fact that they dont let the public have it now? Why should they, there is massive profits to be made. Only technology that you are going to see, is worthless technology, such as solar and windmills. Anything good or really viable, belongs to the oil companies and 'if' oil does ever run out, I am sure they will be in control of the next source.

 

[d00df00d]

On further consideration, I accept that I should not have been so strident if I was unwilling to substantiate my position. I apologize.

Here is some material to get started:


Quote:
In 2004, total world reserves were estimated to be 1.25 trillion barrels and daily consumption was about 85 million barrels, shifting the estimated oil depletion year to 2057. A study published in the journal Energy Policy by researchers from Oxford University, however, predicted demand would surpass supply by 2015 (unless constrained by strong recession pressures caused by reduced supply or government intervention).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_depletion

Sources are noted.

Other credible sources obviously have estimates that vary, but it's only a matter of a few decades here or there. On the timescale of human civilization, that's like the difference between noon tomorrow and 3 pm tomorrow.

One of the main factors affecting this situation is the exponential growth of the human population, which also causes our resource consumption to grow exponentially. The following video playlist explains exponential growth and its implications in quite a simple way. I don't want to continue to sound strident, but there simply is no escaping this: you have to understand these concepts in order to comment intelligently on this topic. If you don't, you might as well be trying to talk about fuel economy without understanding that accelerating requires more fuel than coasting. It's that basic.

http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=6A1FD147A45EF50D


Taking all of the above together, it will quickly become clear why new oil finds are worth a lot less than they seem to be worth. We would have to DOUBLE our known WORLDWIDE reserves just to get a few more decades.

If you're disregarding that fact based on "common sense," then there is no other way to say it: you are not educated enough to speak on this topic. Common sense fails, miserably. That's why we have scientists working on this stuff, and not everyday Joes. The video series posted above will help you understand why that is.


As for what good is done by turtles and organisms so small you can't see, the best I can do is to advise you to contact your local high school or community college and ask to sit in on some biology classes. Jumping into ecology without a basic knowledge of how biological organisms affect each other is like jumping into calculus before you know how to multiply. It's going to take a lot more than a forum post to bring you up to speed.

 

[odie]

While waiting with the car off and letting the sun help heat the interior I watched someone let their new HONDA CRV run well over 20 minutes so they wouldn't have to get into a cold car . Poor , poor , pitiful soul

. This does not help the issue . So many out there doing the same thing and then wonder , complain , or both as why gas is so expensive

. What really is a laugh is when people leave their vehicle running while pumping gas so not to loose any heat . Not only does it waste fuel , but puts others at risk of an explosion

. One time I asked someone that pulled up to the pump in front of us and began to fill it while running to please turn off the car when pumping gas and told me to shut the -- up or he'd have to shut it for me . Ever since then I / we don't say a word and try to get the heck out of there as fast as possible .

 

[unDummy]

We'll just have to drill Alaska and the Gulf into Swiss cheese.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110209/ap_on_re_us/us_shale_oil

 

[d00df00d]

Another source of more recent data (2010): http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/ene_oil_res-energy-oil-reserves

Doing a quick calculation (any nation's reserves divided by its percentage) gives a worldwide total of remaining oil reserves of around 1.35 trillion. That's how much we seem to have left.

Now, how much are we consuming? Here are some data from 2007: http://www.nationmaster.com/red/pie/ene_oil_con-energy-oil-consumption

A similar calculation yields worldwide oil consumption of about 85 billion barrels a day.

At that rate, we would tear through 1.35 trillion barrels of oil in just under 44 years, which would mean that most of us would live to see the depletion of all accessible crude oil on the entire planet. Cut consumption in half, or double the reserve, and we get 88 years; we might not see that, but our children would.

Will these numbers turn out to have been dead on the money? Probably not. What actually happens will depend on a lot of factors that may change in ways that we cannot foresee. Maybe we will reduce our consumption in the US, and things will get better. Maybe the exploding world population will make the problem worse. The point is, it's very easy to see that we are going to have a serious problem on our hands in the foreseeable future unless we make some very serious and sweeping changes, and that even massive oil finds only buy a little time.

Now, if we saw a severalfold increase in available crude, or arrived at an innovation that would massively decrease global consumption, that would be a noteworthy development in the long run.

 

[Shannow]

Originally Posted By: Steve S
How many dinosaurs could there have been to make all the oil that is pumped from the earth? Fossil fuel??? stupid scientist have stupid people believing B.S.


Who says oil was made from dinosaurs ?

BTW, Oz companies keep finding billions of tonnes of coal...where did all THAT fossil fuel come from (complete with fossils)

 

[Shannow]

Originally Posted By: Panzerman
I agree, about the Fossil fuels, being a hoax. Oil may be carbon based. But there is way too much already for it to come from dead dinos, think about that.


See above re dinos, and I'm happy for your expert view on the abundance and nature of coal...another "fossil" fuel.

 

[Shannow]

Originally Posted By: Panzerman
but the line between safe to the enviroment and getting the oil has become so screwed up, its not about protecting resources, now its about protecting every animal, insect, bird and habitat for them. Can anyone tell me the benefits of a TURTLE, what do they really do, thats benficial.


Do you go on holidays at all ?

Do you go to the mall, or gaze in wonder at the Grand Canyon ?

What use is a Grand Canyon, when it could make good road base.

 

[Volvo_ST1]

Originally Posted By: Panzerman
Can anyone tell me the benefits of a TURTLE, what do they really do, thats benficial.



Turtles are an important link in the food chain. Turtles are omnivores, which eat among other things, insect larvae and insects,snails,and algae. They also disperse ingested seeds back into the environment. A number of predators depend on eating turtles and their eggs.

Disturbing the food chain causes an unbalance and does always cause a domino effect with unexpected consequences.

Another comment regarding what you said about oil, of which "there is way too much already for it to come from dead dinos."
Fossil fuels come from all sort of organic matter, including sea life like plankton and algea, and of course plant matter.

As much as you wish there were abiotic oil by the Earth in abundance through some yet-unexplained mechanism, the fact is that natural oil reservoirs are typically located in sedimentary rocks. Only small quantities of oil have been discovered in igneous and metamorphic rock. That clearly indicates that abiotic oil origin is not likely to contribute more than a trivial amount to the amount of oil ever to be found.

 

[willix]

Using less fuel is a given, but it can't be rushed by penalizing Americans for not being able to afford hasty political driven resolutions to the problem that.

If we don't use the fuel thats all the more fuel for driving the fast paced growth in the economies in the east as our dollar goes down the toilet.

It's stupid to think we can compete in this world economy without fossil fuels at this point in time.

 

[d00df00d]

Ain't it a [female dog]?

 

[Volvo_ST1]

Originally Posted By: willix
If we don't use the fuel thats all the more fuel for driving the fast paced growth in the economies in the east as our dollar goes down the toilet.


So we better use up the oil before someone else uses it? Aren't we the main consumers of goods produced with the oil you want to use up?

 

[d00df00d]

I think his point is that the short-term survival of our economy is to some extent at odds with its long-term sustainability, and anything we do to improve sustainability will in some way give a boost to economies that will benefit at our expense. I think he's right, and that that is well worth keeping in mind.

 

[Volvo_ST1]

Originally Posted By: d00df00d
I think his point is that the short-term survival of our economy is to some extent at odds with its long-term sustainability, and anything we do to improve sustainability will in some way give a boost to economies that will benefit at our expense. I think he's right, and that that is well worth keeping in mind.


Let's keep facts in mind. Look at worldwide oil consumption figures. The US uses one quarter of the oil used worldwide every day. Specifically, in 2007, the USA consumed 20,680,000 barrels per day, China used 7,578,000 barrels per day, and Japan used 5,007,000 barrels per day. Those figures do not bear out the claim that the East is sucking the USA dry.

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/ene_oil_con-energy-oil-consumption