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#1082072 - 02/08/08 05:33 PM Re: It's easy to predict a bottom. [Re: Pablo]
GROUCHO MARX Offline


Registered: 07/24/02
Posts: 11410
Loc: The Sandhills of NewYorkistan
I listened to some technicians talk about the downside risk being greater than the upside recently.

The TA works (IMO) much better in analyzing the downward movements.
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#1082105 - 02/08/08 06:09 PM Re: It's easy to predict a bottom. [Re: GROUCHO MARX]
Oldmoparguy1 Offline


Registered: 01/21/05
Posts: 5416
Loc: Charlotte, NC
I has a rough week and still ended up a little. I'm all in now. No cash left. Several Dividends coming in the next few weeks.

Sold CAT for a nice little +2 gain. Bought more NRO. I'm ~60% into high div stocks/funds. Think I'll leave it that way for a while. Up ~8% YTD.
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#1082122 - 02/08/08 06:30 PM Re: It's easy to predict a bottom. [Re: Oldmoparguy1]
VeeDubb Offline


Registered: 08/15/02
Posts: 2421
Loc: Indiana
A week and a half ago I thought we were close to the bottom. But now I'm not so sure. The credit crisis is weakening and the bond insurers are teetering. Lots of hedge funds are shorting them. The real estate ultra short just started to go up again hard the last couple days. Hate to be doom and gloom, but I just don't know anymore. I bought a [censored] load of inflation index funds today. I figure that's where I'll hide out for a week or so and then reevaluate.
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#1082151 - 02/08/08 07:16 PM Re: It's easy to predict a bottom. [Re: VeeDubb]
Oldmoparguy1 Offline


Registered: 01/21/05
Posts: 5416
Loc: Charlotte, NC
I think hide out is the operative phrase here.
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#1082189 - 02/08/08 08:24 PM Re: It's easy to predict a bottom. [Re: Oldmoparguy1]
cmhj Offline


Registered: 10/20/06
Posts: 1578
Loc: SE Pa
Seat belts fastened?
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#1082202 - 02/08/08 08:37 PM Re: It's easy to predict a bottom. [Re: cmhj]
Pablo Offline


Registered: 10/28/02
Posts: 47126
Loc: Duvall WA - Pacific NW USA
 Originally Posted By: cmhj
Careful bears,

We could reverse very soon since this should be a wave 4 since my low call in mid-late Jan. However, if you're looking out a couple months shorts should be fine if I got the options read right.


Now it's buckle the seatbelts. Which way are we heading??

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#1082204 - 02/08/08 08:41 PM Re: It's easy to predict a bottom. [Re: Pablo]
Oldmoparguy1 Offline


Registered: 01/21/05
Posts: 5416
Loc: Charlotte, NC
I think he's saying we're on a roller coaster and it's just getting going good. I've been scratching and scrambling and I think I'm good to go for the next 2-3 months.

(I hope)...
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What has happened to polite conservation? Refrain from pointless posts. Try not to criticize others for silly mistakes.

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#1082218 - 02/08/08 09:05 PM Re: It's easy to predict a bottom. [Re: Oldmoparguy1]
Pablo Offline


Registered: 10/28/02
Posts: 47126
Loc: Duvall WA - Pacific NW USA
Could be - seems like I can buy just a tad more, before I puke.

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#1082271 - 02/08/08 10:36 PM Re: It's easy to predict a bottom. [Re: Oldmoparguy1]
Pablo Offline


Registered: 10/28/02
Posts: 47126
Loc: Duvall WA - Pacific NW USA
Spent some time studying the charts of about 7-8 averages. Seems to me if we bust much lower, we will have broken through statistical resistance limit. Enough so that we'll need to recalculate the limits. I know I'm not using the correct words, but it makes sense to my mind. I'm holding out my last fraction for that. I got money spread about everywhere right now......and I feel like Slim Pickens!

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#1082479 - 02/09/08 12:17 PM Re: It's easy to predict a bottom. [Re: Pablo]
VeeDubb Offline


Registered: 08/15/02
Posts: 2421
Loc: Indiana
I dunno about resistance limits. The underlying assumption is that somehow the fundamentals are stationary which is probably true in the short term. So short term historic data is useful. But a lot of the problems in the current credit crises is caused by the collapse of complex derivatives which were valued with black scholes type models with parameters that were calibrated using historic data. Obviously, those parameters were wrong so I'm not sure we are in a stationary environment. I guess what I am saying is that I have NO IDEA what will happen in the next year or two because a lot of the assumptions used by these rocket scientists on Wall street were flawed (based on historic data). So short term, perhaps the resistance levels will hold. Long term, flip a coin. It might be a better predictor.
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#1082517 - 02/09/08 01:45 PM Re: It's easy to predict a bottom. [Re: VeeDubb]
Pablo Offline


Registered: 10/28/02
Posts: 47126
Loc: Duvall WA - Pacific NW USA
VeeDubb - exactly what I say about charts. How can a chart predict a terrorist attack (for example)?

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#1082554 - 02/09/08 03:35 PM Re: It's easy to predict a bottom. [Re: Pablo]
cmhj Offline


Registered: 10/20/06
Posts: 1578
Loc: SE Pa
[quote=Pablo How can a chart predict a terrorist attack (for example)? [/quote]

They can't. However, our cycle analysis for Sep. 01 was bearish going into the third week of Sep. Coincidence? Some say yes. However, those that understand the underpinning actions and motivations of the option market know better.

Cycles are very predictive. My phone conversation with Mike Sparks last fall, which I had made mention of several weeks ago about my becoming cautious on the market played out.

In mid Jan. I said we won't see a "good" low for some time before we had the low in Jan. That statement remains. I will say though the buy & hold bulls turn will return this year.

Per my comments last night about having your seat belts fastened simply means we're in a roller coaster period & it will last for some period. I can't get into any more details with time and price levels due to obligations but there is more predictability than most realize.

Also, note on Feb. 1 I said another S/T hi was at hand. Another coincidence? Maybe but the call was correct.

Take note and see if I'm right or wrong. So far I've laid out 6 calls on this site in real time or before the fact.

1 * Early Jan. I said we'll not see a good low for some time but was on the lookout for an I/T rally within a week after a S/T pop. This has come to term and the projected timing was within a day.

2 * The day of the Jan. low I was getting nervous with my shorts and was looking for a rally. This fit in with the comments of earlier in the month and has come to term.

3 * Feb. I said a S/T high was at hand. This has come to term.

4 * We're in a roller coaster period. TWT

5 * The Jan. low was not a good low, meaning it should get taken out. TWT

6 * Buy and hold for the bulls will return this year. TWT but this is a very safe bet.

So as of now for real time and before the fact calls on this site I'm 3 for 6. 4 for 6 would beat the odds. 5 for 6? I've got money on it. 6 for 6? Likely but TWT.

Finally, so no one gets the wrong idea. I'm not trolling for subscribers. I have too many now.

I will from time to time step in with more calls, time permitting.
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2013 Fiat 500
2012 Equinox LS
2016 Subaru Forester 2.5i Touring
A slug of old stuff

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#1082566 - 02/09/08 03:58 PM Re: It's easy to predict a bottom. [Re: cmhj]
Oldmoparguy1 Offline


Registered: 01/21/05
Posts: 5416
Loc: Charlotte, NC
cmhj, we appreciate your knowledge and experience in the market. Thanks..

Wayne
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What has happened to polite conservation? Refrain from pointless posts. Try not to criticize others for silly mistakes.

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#1082568 - 02/09/08 03:59 PM Re: It's easy to predict a bottom. [Re: cmhj]
Pablo Offline


Registered: 10/28/02
Posts: 47126
Loc: Duvall WA - Pacific NW USA
Thanks for clarifying. It'll be interesting to watch it play out in 2008.

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#1082598 - 02/09/08 04:59 PM Re: It's easy to predict a bottom. [Re: Win]
Pablo Offline


Registered: 10/28/02
Posts: 47126
Loc: Duvall WA - Pacific NW USA

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