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#4715431 - 04/03/18 06:24 PM Storm clouds for electric vehicle mkt: EPA & TESLA
wemay Offline


Registered: 04/04/12
Posts: 9001
Loc: Southeast Florida
How ironic that China will lead us into the new era. Their demand for electric vehicles may keep development and research "full speed ahead" regardless of EPA.

https://www.axios.com/storm-clouds-for-t...9a5dadce71.html

Quote:
On the record: Two analysts I chatted with yesterday cautioned against assuming the EPA moves will make a big difference in automakers' behavior in the coming years.

“This is a much bigger story than the EPA. It involves a lot of other big jurisdictions, most importantly the Chinese market."
— Salim Morsy, analyst with Bloomberg New Energy Finance
He also notes the zero-emissions vehicles programs in California and other states are key, and while EPA may go after them, that would likely mean a protracted court battle.

BNEF has forecast that electrics will make up 54% of new car sales in 2040 worldwide (and nearly 60% in the U.S.). Right now they're just a blip worldwide.

Yes, the U.S. regulations matter, but their effect is limited because “the baton is being passed to market-driven considerations.”

The allure of China: The EV push in China alone, the world’s biggest market, “effectively tells the U.S. automakers that directionally speaking, they need to continue on the path they are on," Morsy said.

“It likely does not significantly sway the corporate strategy of the big three auto [original equipment manufacturers] in the U.S. and indeed all of the OEMs that sell cars in the U.S.," he said of EPA's plan.

Autotrader analyst Michelle Krebs makes a similar point in expressing doubts that automakers will back off their announcements in recent years to pour billions more dollars in new electric models and development. She said:

“If you are going to be a global player, you have got to play in China and you have got to play by China’s rules, and that means more electric vehicles and more efficient vehicles."
Chinese policy calls for sales of 7 million electric vehicles per year by 2025.

The bottom line: Krebs notes the bigger question is how to get U.S. consumers to buy more EVs, which they have yet to flock to amid low gasoline prices and a taste for larger vehicles
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#4715435 - 04/03/18 06:29 PM Re: Storm clouds for electric vehicle mkt: EPA & TESLA [Re: wemay]
Danno Offline


Registered: 10/07/12
Posts: 2023
Loc: Northern Ontario, Canada
No way not until electrical grid is upgraded to accommodate that 2040 sales level estimate.


Edited by Danno (04/03/18 06:29 PM)
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#4715454 - 04/03/18 06:42 PM Re: Storm clouds for electric vehicle mkt: EPA & TESLA [Re: Danno]
Wolf359 Offline


Registered: 04/27/12
Posts: 4908
Loc: MA
Originally Posted By: Danno
No way not until electrical grid is upgraded to accommodate that 2040 sales level estimate.


This seems to come up all the time. Not really because you can just charge at night if it becomes a factor. In New England peak demand now is about 15 gigawatts during the day but about 10 at night. Smart meters would just have you charge at night. Capacity is more like 18-19 gigawatts, but I'm sure as the weather gets hotter we'll get closer to peak demand.

https://www.iso-ne.com/markets-operations/system-forecast-status/three-day-system-demand-forecast

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#4715461 - 04/03/18 06:46 PM Re: Storm clouds for electric vehicle mkt: EPA & TESLA [Re: Danno]
fdcg27 Offline


Registered: 09/25/09
Posts: 15843
Loc: OH
Originally Posted By: Danno
No way not until electrical grid is upgraded to accommodate that 2040 sales level estimate.


I agree with you on this, since in many areas peak demand, which is typically seen not during the workday but on hot summer nights when everyone is home and has their AC cranked can barely be met even without hordes of EVs being charged.
The widespread adoption of EVs will require significant new generation and distribution infrastructure.
Read $$$ in rate increases for all, including those who avoid EVs.
Maybe the nation's utility operators will offer rebates to those who buy IC cars?
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#4715462 - 04/03/18 06:47 PM Re: Storm clouds for electric vehicle mkt: EPA & TESLA [Re: Danno]
Trav Offline


Registered: 11/20/06
Posts: 19349
Loc: MA, Mittelfranken.de
Originally Posted By: Danno
No way not until electrical grid is upgraded to accommodate that 2040 sales level estimate.


^ This! In some areas in the summer heat with high A/C use they have brownouts and even rolling blackouts, in most parts of the country electric line are hanging on wooden poles like some sub Sahara third world hole.
No way in Hades can this decrepit obsolete US system handle the load, one ice storm took this pneumonia hole out for 3 weeks in some places and the whole place out for 2 weeks.
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#4715473 - 04/03/18 06:57 PM Re: Storm clouds for electric vehicle mkt: EPA & TESLA [Re: wemay]
JohnnyJohnson Offline


Registered: 10/22/09
Posts: 2908
Loc: Wet side WA
Yes here's one of those Tesla storm clouds.




Edited by JohnnyJohnson (04/03/18 07:08 PM)
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#4715485 - 04/03/18 07:05 PM Re: Storm clouds for electric vehicle mkt: EPA & TESLA [Re: wemay]
mk378 Offline


Registered: 09/27/15
Posts: 1450
Loc: USA
There is always extra capacity at night. Electric utilities have always wished for consumers to have a way to draw and store energy during night and use less from the grid during the day. EVs actually do that.

The electric trolley and subway trains were actually an electric company idea to fill a lull in consumption during commute time-- after people left their homes but before factories started production.


Edited by mk378 (04/03/18 07:15 PM)

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#4715495 - 04/03/18 07:15 PM Re: Storm clouds for electric vehicle mkt: EPA & TESLA [Re: mk378]
Shannow Offline


Registered: 12/12/02
Posts: 40206
Loc: 'Stralia
Originally Posted By: mk378
There is always extra capacity at night. Electric utilities have always wished for consumers to have a way to draw and store energy during night and use less from the grid during the day. EVs actually do that.


Until you get on the solar future...then "Off Peak" becomes 10:00 to 15:00, and the most expensive electricity is afternoon, followed by overnight.

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#4715497 - 04/03/18 07:22 PM Re: Storm clouds for electric vehicle mkt: EPA & TESLA [Re: mk378]
oil_film_movies Offline


Registered: 06/13/16
Posts: 2634
Loc: MN
Originally Posted By: mk378
There is always extra capacity at night. Electric utilities have always wished for consumers to have a way to draw and store energy during night and use less from the grid during the day. EVs actually do that.

The electric trolley and subway trains were actually an electric company idea to fill a lull in consumption during commute time-- after people left their homes but before factories started production.


If a bunch of people suddenly plug in 240v (and some 120v) at 10 to 50 amps at 4:30 pm to 7 pm as they get home from work, during the summer this coincides with a lot of air conditioners also clicking on. It raises the peak. This could be solved with delay-timers on the charge units, IF most everyone used that. We would have to force them to use delay timers.

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#4715510 - 04/03/18 07:35 PM Re: Storm clouds for electric vehicle mkt: EPA & TESLA [Re: wemay]
SubieRubyRoo Offline


Registered: 05/14/12
Posts: 1236
Loc: Winchester, Indiana
Also, let's see... what's more polluting in China- gasoline engined cars, or the coal plants that need to power EVs?

We're "collectively" (haha since we're talking about communist China) ignoring the automatic, inherent carbon sequestration that occurs when CO2 levels rise and plant and tree growth ramps up automatically, which captures the "increase" in CO2. We're also "collectively" ignoring the fact that synthesized fuels have been around since the mid 30's from the Germans...

I'll buy an EV/hybrid right after I get microchipped... which is right after the stroke of NEVER.

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#4715555 - 04/03/18 08:15 PM Re: Storm clouds for electric vehicle mkt: EPA & TESLA [Re: Wolf359]
PimTac Online   content


Registered: 03/04/17
Posts: 4656
Loc: Soviet State of Washington
Originally Posted By: Wolf359
Originally Posted By: Danno
No way not until electrical grid is upgraded to accommodate that 2040 sales level estimate.


This seems to come up all the time. Not really because you can just charge at night if it becomes a factor. In New England peak demand now is about 15 gigawatts during the day but about 10 at night. Smart meters would just have you charge at night. Capacity is more like 18-19 gigawatts, but I'm sure as the weather gets hotter we'll get closer to peak demand.

https://www.iso-ne.com/markets-operations/system-forecast-status/three-day-system-demand-forecast




Perhaps so but there is more to the country than New England, despite what is told. California can barely supply themselves in the summer and that is with power taken from neighboring states. Those states are starting to have issues as well since their populations are growing, mainly from the NE and Rust Belt.
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#4715560 - 04/03/18 08:19 PM Re: Storm clouds for electric vehicle mkt: EPA & TESLA [Re: wemay]
hatt Online   content


Registered: 01/03/12
Posts: 4430
Loc: Florida
China lead us? When did they start developing their own technology?
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#4715572 - 04/03/18 08:53 PM Re: Storm clouds for electric vehicle mkt: EPA & TESLA [Re: hatt]
c502cid Offline


Registered: 01/17/03
Posts: 1009
Loc: Elizabeth. Colorado
Originally Posted By: hatt
China lead us? When did they start developing their own technology?


BYD in China is one of the top leaders in electric vehicle technology, especially commercial vehicles. Even has plans to build a factory in the US to handle the demand. If you've ever been to China you'll see millions of mopeds and mini bikes running around, most are electric.

Don't underestimate China.
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#4715593 - 04/03/18 09:23 PM Re: Storm clouds for electric vehicle mkt: EPA & TESLA [Re: JohnnyJohnson]
gathermewool Offline


Registered: 01/09/09
Posts: 6064
Originally Posted By: JohnnyJohnson
Yes here's one of those Tesla storm clouds.




I blame the driver, not Tesla. How many deaths need to be reported before these numb nuts rely less on the auto-pilot? I have two vehicles with adaptive cruise control, but my foot is always hovering above the brake. If there’s congestion, I disable it and take over. I can engine-brake and use my brakes a heck of a lot more efficiently than Subaru’s Eyesight.

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#4715605 - 04/03/18 09:43 PM Re: Storm clouds for electric vehicle mkt: EPA & TESLA [Re: wemay]
FermeLaPorte Offline


Registered: 07/25/17
Posts: 514
Loc: Texas (south)
Keep thinking that eV will become the main medium of transportation. Neither the US nor achina have the infrastructure or enough COAL to produce the amount of electricity for them
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