Understanding Tesla's Current Stock Valuation

[JeffKeryk]

In a nutshell, I don't think cost or profit was a formula in the design team. I have been on enough design teams and if those were the constraints there is no way they end up with this. For whatever reasons - at the time they did it they simply didn't care. But it certainly was not due to a simple mistake.

You may be right. My guess is, Musk got too full of his car company's successes, stock price (dwarfs all other car mfg'ers) and basically himself. His other exploits seem to support his self over-assurance. Just my 2 cents.

My 2 cents also thinks Tesla will continue to dominate. Data is AI's foundation (and everything else's) and perhaps the most valuable revenue source.

 

[E365]

Tesla’s USA market share down to 38%, the lowest since October 2017.

Even with the rush to buy before Sept 30th, their August 2025 sales were only up 3% - the rest of the market was up 14%.

They need new products. There’s a reason GM, Toyota, Hyundai, VW, etc introduce new or updated models every few months. That’s how the game is played.

https://www.reuters.com/business/au...t-since-2017-competition-heats-up-2025-09-08/

 

[ME_Andy]

I'm out, for now.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Tesla’s USA market share down to 38%, the lowest since October 2017.

Even with the rush to buy before Sept 30th, their August 2025 sales were only up 3% - the rest of the market was up 14%.

They need new products. There’s a reason GM, Toyota, Hyundai, VW, etc introduce new or updated models every few months. That’s how the game is played.

https://www.reuters.com/business/au...t-since-2017-competition-heats-up-2025-09-08/

I wonder what percentages other makes contributed? And, of course, if they made any money on their COGS.
Competition is good for us, the customers. Competition is not the only reason Tesla sales have slowed.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Tesla is up another $26 today; the roller coaster continues. Snap a regression curve over the last 5 years... Wow!

 

[Brons2]

Tesla is up another $26 today; the roller coaster continues. Snap a regression curve over the last 5 years... Wow!

We have friends visiting from Brazil and their 18 yo son wanted to do a Cybertruck demo drive, so I obliged last Thursday evening. They thought FSD was pretty cool. We had to find the Sport mode in the menus to make it go fast, and even at that it wasn't nearly as fast as my Lightning, I'm guessing it might have been a RWD model.

I don't really understand why Tesla doesn't do some targeted expansion in South America, mainly in the very large cities. EVs would work excellent in Sao Paulo from my observation, for 12 million people (22M metro), the land area of the Sao Paulo city limits is less than twice as big as the city of Austin despite containing 12 times more humans. You sit in traffic a lot for distances that are really pretty short. And regular wall plugs are 220v, so, you'd do better with a wall plug even at a relatively low amperage, than you would in the US at 120V.

One might comment that people are too poor. There are enough people in Sao Paulo with money to make it worthwhile. I see lots of high end Euro cars there when we visit. The curiosity would drive sales. The import duties would be high, but that's no different than any other manufacturer that doesn't assemble vehicles locally.