U.S. sanctions will not halt rise of China's chip industry

buster

buster

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“If budgets were the key measure of success, then China would probably be in first place. Under the CHIPS and Science Act, passed last year, the U.S. is funneling $52.7 billion into building, modernizing and expanding domestic chip production. The EU is mulling a plan to invest $46 billion.”


asia.nikkei.com

U.S. sanctions will not halt rise of China's chip industry

Beijing still holds advantages while America struggles to boost domestic output
asia.nikkei.com asia.nikkei.com
 
The funny thing is that we hope to develop our own production of chips by inviting Chinese companies to build their fabs here. (Yes, we recognize Taiwan as part of China).

It's going to be another free-for-all of federal subsidies that will result in very little positive outcome.
 
Vil_Riker said:
The funny thing is that we hope to develop our own production of chips by inviting Chinese companies to build their fabs here. (Yes, we recognize Taiwan as part of China).

It's going to be another free-for-all of federal subsidies that will result in very little positive outcome.
Click to expand...

Murica jobs
 
X2. The US (and other countries) NEED to have locally produced supply of the chips that are used in items that are must-haves in their economies. Such as the chips needed in every domestic automobile. Also only locally produced chips should be used in any kind of system (including internet and computers) that are involved in any kind of secure systems.

There's no doubt that China will become a major chip producer but the US and other countries must have an independent, security safe and reliable chip supply of their own, even if the chips themselves will cost more.
 
The obvious answer is that we need to be willing to pay a bit more for domestically produced products. Unfortunately, American consumers have basically chosen that price matters more than anything else and here we are.
 
Vil_Riker said:
The funny thing is that we hope to develop our own production of chips by inviting Chinese companies to build their fabs here. (Yes, we recognize Taiwan as part of China).

It's going to be another free-for-all of federal subsidies that will result in very little positive outcome.
Click to expand...
My career was in Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment. This is the most high tech of the high tech, because how do you make a new chip if you don't have the machine to make the new chip?

Ceding chip manufacturing overseas was one of the worst practices of the 1980's. What if China, our enemy, decided to squeeze us out of chips? Do you want to lead or follow?
 
A lot, if not a majority, of the articles we see are all propaganda pieces. The Nikkei piece is like MANY other propagandas hit pieces out now, and the narrative is basically similar to the 'missile gap' PR narrative put out during the late Eisenhower years by the defense industry
 
Vil_Riker said:
The funny thing is that we hope to develop our own production of chips by inviting Chinese companies to build their fabs here. (Yes, we recognize Taiwan as part of China).

It's going to be another free-for-all of federal subsidies that will result in very little positive outcome.
Click to expand...

If you want Chinese intel or organized crime to have access to your CCTV cams or phone, by all means...
 
Vil_Riker said:
The funny thing is that we hope to develop our own production of chips by inviting Chinese companies to build their fabs here. (Yes, we recognize Taiwan as part of China).

It's going to be another free-for-all of federal subsidies that will result in very little positive outcome.
Click to expand...

I've been thinking about this for the past few weeks and I've come to realize, I don't know if we'll have the capable manpower and knowledge. A lot of the design is done in the USA but semiconductor production has been offloaded to overseas factories for long enough that everybody I know who is directly responsible for the fitting, maintenance, and anything physically required is already on their way towards retirement. There's no middle ground between the employees at the end of their careers and the ones who are of age to start their careers. We're going to have to import a lot of foreign workers and companies to fill in the gaps which kind of puts us closeto square 1.
 
Fla said:
X2. The US (and other countries) NEED to have locally produced supply of the chips that are used in items that are must-haves in their economies. Such as the chips needed in every domestic automobile. Also only locally produced chips should be used in any kind of system (including internet and computers) that are involved in any kind of secure systems.

There's no doubt that China will become a major chip producer but the US and other countries must have an independent, security safe and reliable chip supply of their own, even if the chips themselves will cost more.
Click to expand...
I would disagree on the "security" part. We have this export ban on security strength above certain number of bits and now all the civilian security systems are developed in Israel to bypass this export ban. Keep doing this security related stuff like must be manufactured here or there and then they will all be banned in other countries, and eventually they will all be made weaker as the talents overtime would be from Israel with former Soviet immigrants.
 
PimTac said:
Good luck finding labor for these plants.
Click to expand...
They are around, most of them are class 1 cleanroom (vacuum in lithography like EUV), and automated with tracks and robots. A lot of the people working with them are remote controlling them from elsewhere in an office.

The biggest cost in these are the equipment depreciation. $20M machine in 5 years to 10M then to 5M in another 5 years, scale that to 20B a plant? How much would that cost?
 
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About the Nikkei article, there are a few things I disagree with:

14nm and below chips are hard to make with the equipment export ban. China not able to buy the best lithography equipment means even if the can mass produce them with their own equipment, they would be very high cost (low yield), just look at Intel and Samsung not able to compete at the same without TSMC. They may find a way in 20 years, but not now, not in the next 5 years, most likely won't in the next 10 years either. They will have to build their own things by trial and error and constantly playing catch up like building their own CPU back then.

About US forcing TSMC to build their best fab in the US:

Their stock price dropped quite a bit and Warren Buffet bailed on his investment on TSMC, and it is likely because it won't be a good return on investment as the US talent isn't up to par compare to Taiwan for the best technologies, or cost more (way more) than Taiwan. Pretty simple every time when you force a business to do a political move it will be less profitable than let the free market does its thing.
 
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Success is not dropped in your lap. You have to work at it; invest in it. There are no guarantees, but if you are not even in the game you automatically lose.
Stop the short term thinking; stop worrying about short term profits.

I see so many posts with reasons we can't do this. I don't understand such thinking and I certainly do not wanna be part of it.
 
JeffKeryk said:
Success is not dropped in your lap. You have to work at it; invest in it. There are no guarantees, but if you are not even in the game you automatically lose.
Stop the short term thinking; stop worrying about short term profits.

I see so many posts with reasons we can't do this. I don't understand such thinking and I certainly do not wanna be part of it.
Click to expand...

Something this important needs to be in the USA.

I like reading about your industry insights. (y)
 
JeffKeryk said:
Success is not dropped in your lap. You have to work at it; invest in it. There are no guarantees, but if you are not even in the game you automatically lose.
Stop the short term thinking; stop worrying about short term profits.

I see so many posts with reasons we can't do this. I don't understand such thinking and I certainly do not wanna be part of it.
Click to expand...
It can be done, just less profitable, hence without government mandate or subsidies you cannot compete with commoditized products out there.

We have Intel, but they aren't competent in their own game after a few bad CEOs. TSMC is not happy to do it but forced to do it, and won't make as much money doing it vs doing it in Taiwan. They too are worried about their talents in US bringing the knowhow to competitors, or getting political with and compete with the Taiwan fraction.

I think it can be done if we throw a lot of money at it, but first we have to make more companies competent in this area instead of just relying on TSMC. It would likely have to mandate government purchasing and pay to subsidize it. I'm not sure if the "small government" or "free market" supporters are going to budge on that with tax payer money.
 
Dave Hess said:
Something this important needs to be in the USA.

I like reading about your industry insights. (y)
Click to expand...
Thoughts for you:
  • What does it mean to achieve the unthinkable? To pursue innovtion that pushes the boundries of technical limitations?
  • Breakthrough is not just a product; it is a process.
Making semiconductors is a highly complex and iterative process. At the atomic layer.
Welcome to Silicon Valley. "What's next?"
 
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