The Tesla Strategy

[02SE]

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I saw this driving through Indianapolis today, is Tesla's strategy to get people to hate their owner and yet still by their vehicles?

I appreciate the owner, and bought a Tesla last week.

 

[97prizm]

JP Morgan is late to the party as if anyone doesnt know this, they should not be investing in individual stocks. I cant wait to see the quarterly report. Im not looking for it to get trashed, Im just looking for it to be properly valued. If I could figure out the wild swings I would be tempted to trade it on a weekly or daily basis but it scares the heck out of me and I truly would feel safer in bitcoin.

Maybe (except for speculators) the value of the stock should be in the $60 to $75 range. May never go that low because of no other reason than this is a speculation stock. An example is Bitcoin speculation with no base except demand.

The company is a train wreck and has been a train wreck since inception except for the early 2000's however as an investor, depending on what side you were on and if and when you bought and sold you did very well or lost everything. The company has not come close to living up to stated growth goals and profits for almost 2 years now.

Proof? The stock has gone no/where in the last 3 years. Actually it is down $100 a share since 3/2022 but can still pull up even in the remaining weeks. Yet still, the market in (nasdaq 100, heck composite too) the last 3 years is up 28ish percent even after this down trend. So lets see, 3 years of Tesla and your down 30ish percent, 3 years of nasdaq index and your up 28ish percent.

They need products that people will want to flock to and buy. 4 door looking sedans do not cut it among mainstream America is what I think. Unlike people in forms, they do not care if a car shaves a few seconds off acceleration. They want a true SUV type vehicle. Tesla needs one and properly priced.

For clarity I wouldnt invest in Tesla even if it was $60 a share under the current conditions with no forward guidance from the company.
I consider $60 speculation in that the company will pull out of one of the worst rapid sales downfalls of any automobile company in history (?). I suspect they may have a plan to pull out of it, I just don't know what it is.

Teslas biggest issue is their so called "improvements". They constantly change parts, and installation. This is a huge expense for keeping track of what vehicle has what production on which year. Then yesterday 4/5/25 Teslas long-time engineer that has been with them since 2012 and was part of the team that developed over the air updates quit. He is the 7th since April of 2024. Why is Tesla losing so many head engineers so quickly? A number of publications are asking "Is internally working for Tesla not as rosy as painted?"

 

[02SE]

Teslas biggest issue is their so called "improvements". They constantly change parts, and installation. This is a huge expense for keeping track of what vehicle has what production on which year. Then yesterday 4/5/25 Teslas long-time engineer that has been with them since 2012 and was part of the team that developed over the air updates quit. He is the 7th since April of 2024. Why is Tesla losing so many head engineers so quickly? A number of publications are asking "Is internally working for Tesla not as rosy as painted?"

Any numbers on how many engineers have left a specific car manufacturer of any brand, to work at another, or in a different industry, in the same time frame? Otherwise your anecdotal example doesn't mean much.

 

[GON]

I cant remember a time in my life that I based a purchase on the perception of what the CEO is like or if I would like him/her or not.
That would make no sense, because if it was true everyone should buy a GM and shop at Walmart.
I dont know much about Mary's story at GM except she is a straight shooter.

Who can knock the CEO of Walmart when he started out working there part time at the age of 16 unloading trucks in the summer.
His father was a dentist who served in Vietnam.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doug_McMillon

True it has an effect on the public including me but quality/price rules no matter who the CEO is.
I would think there are way more Musk supporters in the USA but the public perception by paid actors and with marketing by big money to the contrary. Yes, the public fooled, nothing new since man walked on earth.

Thanks for sharing the Doug McMillon story, awesome to read. Might explain why I have become to like Walmart more and more over most other retailers, and especially the lack of exploitive games Walmart plays on its customers that other retailers do in great abundance.

 

[97prizm]

Any numbers on how many engineers have left a specific car manufacturer of any brand, to work at another, or in a different industry, in the same time frame? Otherwise your anecdotal example doesn't mean much.

Well in the last year GM has lost two. One retired after 44 years and another retired due to failing health. Stellantis had one major engineer retire several engineers were shuffled, one went to Peugeot.

 

[02SE]

Well in the last year GM has lost two. One retired after 44 years and another retired due to failing health. Stellantis had one major engineer retire several engineers were shuffled, one went to Peugeot.

The point is that unless you are these individuals, you don't know why someone may change their job. Thus no definitive conclusion can be drawn. If "A number of publications are asking "Is internally working for Tesla not as rosy as painted?"" as you state, I propose that those 'publications' have an agenda, and are seeking to sway opinion, in this case negatively, about the Tesla company.

In the profession that I consult in, personnel are frequently changing jobs, or moving on to other careers. Again, unless you are the individual changing jobs, no one truly knows the motivation for those job changes.

 

[97prizm]

Tesla wants to primarily become a software company for cars, charging and energy storage devices, solar panels, pretty much everything to do with energy and transportation.

Will they make cars? Absolutely, but in due time it will be more about putting all the physical ingredients available elsewhere into an assembled product versus the heavily vertical integration they have now. EVs required a high level of vertical integration where the company designed and built most of the components in the beginning. Now that nearly every automaker is dedicating resources, and suppliers, towards the development of new EVs you will see this change.

Do they need the Supercharger network? No. There comes a point where a once emerging technology matures and experiences slower growth and reduced margins. Tesla was the first mover in this market. Now they dominate it. Now they can sell it at what he/they may think is its peak valuation. That money will be going to two areas...

Artificial Intelligence. Without digging too deep into the rabbit hole I'll just say that AI is to Silicon Valley what the Internet was to Silicon Valley 30 years ago.

Autonomous driving software. Tesla is making a huge bet that they can develop the software that makes autonomous driving possible. They will require enormous resources and cooperation with multiple partners (public and private) to make that a reality. The cost will likely be in the tens of billions over time and they will need to be, once again, subsidized.

Multiple governments will be involved with this along with many corporations that have resources that complement this push.

I wouldn't be surprised if you don't see another new model from Tesla for at least the next two years. Beyond that, they will take the 3/Y architecture and amortize it out to the greatest degree possible. No new models other than the semi-truck and others that are already works in progress. Whatever new model that comes out in terms of cars will be heavily based on the S/Y platform.

The Cybertruck for Tesla is a lot like what the Lisa was for Apple. An undertaking that had some merit in terms of technology but will eventually fizzle out. Gigcasting, 800V systems, and other engineering architectures that were focused on vehicle production will have most of their R&D funding re-directed towards AI and autonomy.

I am not long on Tesla. Mainly because I'm not convinced we have enough knowledge workers on this planet to make his goals a reality, given that so many others who are also heavily subsidized or have better technological advantages are pursuing the same exact thing. I may be wrong, but I think the Balkanization of the resources needed are eventually going to stagnate Tesla's ability to capitalize on AI or autonomy.

These fields are so new we just don't have the knowledge base quite yet. The money is getting ahead of the skill sets.

Tesla has already realized and said that gigacasting hasn't been the huge money saver that Musk promised.

 

[Dave Hess]

Tesla stock still way overpriced and Elon needs to resign.

 

[Torrid]

I appreciate the owner, and bought a Tesla last week.

Owner? CEO that has 20% of the stock. I wouldn't call that the owner.

 

[4WD]

https://www.futurebridge.com/report...-casting-is-redefining-automotive-production/

 

[97prizm]

Tesla wants to primarily become a software company for cars, charging and energy storage devices, solar panels, pretty much everything to do with energy and transportation.

Will they make cars? Absolutely, but in due time it will be more about putting all the physical ingredients available elsewhere into an assembled product versus the heavily vertical integration they have now. EVs required a high level of vertical integration where the company designed and built most of the components in the beginning. Now that nearly every automaker is dedicating resources, and suppliers, towards the development of new EVs you will see this change.

Do they need the Supercharger network? No. There comes a point where a once emerging technology matures and experiences slower growth and reduced margins. Tesla was the first mover in this market. Now they dominate it. Now they can sell it at what he/they may think is its peak valuation. That money will be going to two areas...

Artificial Intelligence. Without digging too deep into the rabbit hole I'll just say that AI is to Silicon Valley what the Internet was to Silicon Valley 30 years ago.

Autonomous driving software. Tesla is making a huge bet that they can develop the software that makes autonomous driving possible. They will require enormous resources and cooperation with multiple partners (public and private) to make that a reality. The cost will likely be in the tens of billions over time and they will need to be, once again, subsidized.

Multiple governments will be involved with this along with many corporations that have resources that complement this push.

I wouldn't be surprised if you don't see another new model from Tesla for at least the next two years. Beyond that, they will take the 3/Y architecture and amortize it out to the greatest degree possible. No new models other than the semi-truck and others that are already works in progress. Whatever new model that comes out in terms of cars will be heavily based on the S/Y platform.

The Cybertruck for Tesla is a lot like what the Lisa was for Apple. An undertaking that had some merit in terms of technology but will eventually fizzle out. Gigcasting, 800V systems, and other engineering architectures that were focused on vehicle production will have most of their R&D funding re-directed towards AI and autonomy.

I am not long on Tesla. Mainly because I'm not convinced we have enough knowledge workers on this planet to make his goals a reality, given that so many others who are also heavily subsidized or have better technological advantages are pursuing the same exact thing. I may be wrong, but I think the Balkanization of the resources needed are eventually going to stagnate Tesla's ability to capitalize on AI or autonomy.

These fields are so new we just don't have the knowledge base quite yet. The money is getting ahead of the skill sets.

Add Tesla board of directors that okayed a Trillion dollar pay package for Musk! This is nothing short of reckless and hosing the stock holders. Or maybe they know he can't make the company worth 8 trillion in ten years. Their stock is down 30 percent and sales are in the toilet with nothing new to get them back on track. Their robot was human controlled, Tesla's head of autonomy has said they lag Waymo by two years. It's going to be a bumpy ride.

 

[97prizm]

Google it up, as my friend Mani sez....

Tesla has doubled the price to $435,000 and "hopes" to get it into high production by early 2026. Keep in mind Freightliner and Volvo already have alot of electric semis on the road now. I've seen two different Volvo and one electric Freightliner delivery trucks with Pepsi making food deliveries in Colorado. Not a single company has a Tesla semi delivered here yet. But.... There's always next year.

 

[alarmguy]

To this day Tesla has not proven themselves to justify the stock price at 200 times earnings.
The hopefuls are still hoping. The company no longer does anything outstanding except have a shrinking market share & shrinking profit margins.

Their business model is not working. Every aspect of their business is down. Their automobile business in the toilet.
Sure they have an energy storage business that is growing, but it’s tiny in relation to the stock price.
So besides their electric vehicles, some of their energy solutions are going to get hammered with the cancellation of rebates.

It will be interesting if Felix the Cat has another trick in his bag. So far to me it seems like the company is just wasting away so I assume there is something that maybe we don’t know yet.

I don’t see today’s AI as what Silicon Valley had 30 years ago.
Everybody has AI now, including China.
30 years ago Silicon Valley was about the hardware and software hardware was in the handful of a few Silicon Valley companies.

Today it’s global..
We do have some chipmakers that will do well.
Anyway, you got me, I have to go eat dinner my wife says

 

[ArrestMeRedZ]

I don't profess to be a stock or business expert, but Mary Barra is, and she is dumping her GM stock, having sold 40% of her holdings recently. The Tesla board also has some business experience and with them offering Musk One Trillion Dollars to achieve impossible goals they apparently think he is worth it.
And when I say impossible goals, I can only think of one CEO in the world that can routinely achieve the impossible. His first name starts with "E" and ends with "lon". Yeah, the incentive is ludicrous. For anyone except Musk.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Add Tesla board of directors that okayed a Trillion dollar pay package for Musk! This is nothing short of reckless and hosing the stock holders. Or maybe they know he can't make the company worth 8 trillion in ten years. Their stock is down 30 percent and sales are in the toilet with nothing new to get them back on track. Their robot was human controlled, Tesla's head of autonomy has said they lag Waymo by two years. It's going to be a bumpy ride.

To this day Tesla has not proven themselves to justify the stock price at 200 times earnings.
The hopefuls are still hoping. The company no longer does anything outstanding except have a shrinking market share & shrinking profit margins.

Their business model is not working. Every aspect of their business is down. Their automobile business in the toilet.
Sure they have an energy storage business that is growing, but it’s tiny in relation to the stock price.
So besides their electric vehicles, some of their energy solutions are going to get hammered with the cancellation of rebates.

It will be interesting if Felix the Cat has another trick in his bag. So far to me it seems like the company is just wasting away so I assume there is something that maybe we don’t know yet.

I don’t see today’s AI as what Silicon Valley had 30 years ago.
Everybody has AI now, including China.
30 years ago Silicon Valley was about the hardware and software hardware was in the handful of a few Silicon Valley companies.

Today it’s global..
We do have some chipmakers that will do well.
Anyway, you got me, I have to go eat dinner my wife says

Musk is worth like $435B. I am not sure I would count him out just yet.
Tesla's market cap is bigger than the next 13 car companies combined; about 4.3x more valuable than 2nd place Toyota. Almost 20x GM.

That's the numbers. But Tesla will be belly up any day now! Mark my words...

 

[SC Maintenance]

Pretty sure Musk will move on from Tesla sooner than later. I just read a finance piece where Starlink is getting contracts to provide state paid high speed internet for rural areas. SpaceX is the only US entity that can reliably put stuff in space anymore. He owns X which I have also read is profitable at this point. He has other high tech companies working on AI and other things. I am sure the $1T is just a publicity stunt to keep him around.

I am no fan of Tesla cars, but would never bet against Elon. He has the midas touch. Lots of people do love to hate him for sure though, either way.

 

[dogememe]

Pretty sure Musk will move on from Tesla sooner than later. I just read a finance piece where Starlink is getting contracts to provide state paid high speed internet for rural areas. SpaceX is the only US entity that can reliably put stuff in space anymore. He owns X which I have also read is profitable at this point. He has other high tech companies working on AI and other things. I am sure the $1T is just a publicity stunt to keep him around.

I am no fan of Tesla cars, but would never bet against Elon. He has the midas touch. Lots of people do love to hate him for sure though, either way.

Yeah, Elon and his companies seems to get things right generally.

Starlink has given MANY people affordable enough access to at least somewhat decent internet.

I don’t care much for X/Twitter but I use it occasionally.

Obviously I don’t hate Tesla because I have one and subscribe to FSD on top of that. Without Tesla EVs would not be what they are today.

I subscribe to Grok, it saves me a lot of time.

SpaceX is so much better than what we had before. And not just better but CHEAPER and better.

 

[97prizm]

Pretty sure Musk will move on from Tesla sooner than later. I just read a finance piece where Starlink is getting contracts to provide state paid high speed internet for rural areas. SpaceX is the only US entity that can reliably put stuff in space anymore. He owns X which I have also read is profitable at this point. He has other high tech companies working on AI and other things. I am sure the $1T is just a publicity stunt to keep him around.

I am no fan of Tesla cars, but would never bet against Elon. He has the midas touch. Lots of people do love to hate him for sure though, either way.

X is making money now? Interesting. A couple of years ago something like half of their advertising revenue pulled out causing X to drop from the $44 to $22 billion.

 

[demarpaint]

Delete.

 

[97prizm]

I don't profess to be a stock or business expert, but Mary Barra is, and she is dumping her GM stock, having sold 40% of her holdings recently. The Tesla board also has some business experience and with them offering Musk One Trillion Dollars to achieve impossible goals they apparently think he is worth it.
And when I say impossible goals, I can only think of one CEO in the world that can routinely achieve the impossible. His first name starts with "E" and ends with "lon". Yeah, the incentive is ludicrous. For anyone except Musk.

Teslas bosrd of directors and Kimball Musk dumped $200 million in stock right before the "We Robot" event. In February, Mar , May and June of this year had cfo's, board members and Kimball Musk selling off Hundreds of millions of dollars in Tesla stock. The same could be asked to them, Is there something that the public should know about