The comment on BITOG that provided me great hope this week “turning rotors”.

[GON]

The comment on BITOG that provided me great hope this week “turning rotors”.



Apologies I can’t find the reply in one of the numerous threads reference tariff discussions. I did a search but unable to find the reply, and to acknowledge the BITOG member who posted the following (memoir not verbatim):

“guess we will have to go back to turning/ cutting rotors instead of buying new Chinese aftermarket rotors”

That BITOGers’ comment deeply motivated me all weekend (it is Sunday in Asia). I look at that and think wow, tariffs have the potential of reestablishing basic machine shops in auto part stores, training a new generation of Americans to operate lathes and associated equipment, restarts the manufacturing of brake lathe equipment, or resume using brake lathe equipment sitting idle.

Some of the auto part store workers will get trained to cut rotors, resulting in a growth of machinists' interest. These workers may further become machinists, lithograph operators, one could go on and on.

Having machinists’ equipment and machinist reintroduced to America has limitless benefits. I am sure there are thousands of other like opportunities in America once we start manufacturing up again.

I am hopeful in America this Sunday morning. It won’t be easy, might in fact be very painful in the short term- but well worth the pain in support of our great nation that has given so much to so very many.

 

[AZjeff]

Already more than tired of the phrases "might be very painful", "going to be some pain" etc. Above a certain income level it may be annoying but not painful. At lower income levels the "pain" could be and will be financially devastating right now for the idea that things might get better sometime later. A lot of people are thinking this is not what I signed up for.

 

[hemitom]

I don't think you are joking with this post !
How many more trillions of dollars can the American economy stand to lose ?
Tariffs do have their place and do work to some extent But tariffing the entire trading world well good luck !
No country cannot and will not ever be self sufficient.

 

[GON]

Already more than tired of the phrases "might be very painful", "going to be some pain" etc. Above a certain income level it may be annoying but not painful. At lower income levels the "pain" could be and will be financially devastating right now for the idea that things might get better sometime later. A lot of people are thinking this is not what I signed up for.

I suppose borrowing money from Chinese peasants to buy products built by Chinese peasants is the way to pay back the monies borrowed from China and the like for their Chinese products. We only have so much U.S. farmland and the like to pay back China with.

1. Trade deficits are not a simple accounting convention; they are real debt that must be paid back
2. Trade deficits must be financed, and we finance our trade deficit by borrowing from our trading partners.
3. The big irony is that we borrow money from our trading partners to finance our trade deficit so that we can buy more of their exports.
4. When the value for the dollar is increased, our exports become less competitive and imports cheaper.
5. Contrary to popular belief, the trade deficit debt must be paid back, and this will be increasingly hard to do with growing federal deficits.
6. If we get crosswise with China, they may decide to not loan us any more money and cash in their US securities.

https://www.industryweek.com/the-ec...e-deficits-are-hurting-american-manufacturing

A ten year old article- things are much worse than when this article was published:

According to the Census Bureau, our top seven trading partners are: Canada, China, Mexico, Japan, Germany, South Korea, and the United Kingdom. These seven countries represent 50.9% of our total trade deficit: -$461.3 billion for January – November 2014. At an average deficit of $40 billion per month, the 2014 trade deficit will exceed $500 billion. Our 2014 trade deficit with China alone was -$314.3 billion for January – November, representing 68% of the total.

Some may claim that we are still the leader in advanced technology products, but this is no longer true. The U. S. has been running a trade deficit in these products since 2002, which has grown to an astonishing average of nearly $90 billion per year since 2010.

Even our most recent trade agreement, the Korea U. S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA), which went into effect in March 2012, has had a negative impact. Last March, the U. S. Trade Representative for the Obama Administration touted, “Since the Korea agreement went into effect, U.S. exports to Korea are up for our manufactured goods, including autos, exports are up for a wide range of our agricultural products, and exports are up for our services.” However, the reality is that our imports continued to exceed our exports, and the U. S. trade deficit with Korea jumped from -$13.62 billion in 2011 to -$22.8 billion through November 2014, which is a 60% increase in two and a half years.

https://www.industryweek.com/the-ec...tween-our-trade-deficit-and-our-national-debt

 

[AutoMechanic]

I personally don’t know many technicians or parts people that enjoy machining rotors though so not sure if they would enjoy it now. Personally I hate machining rotors and won’t do it on my cars but I’ll turn customers rotors all day long as that’s typically what you do and normally we don’t have rotors in stock so it’s either wait or sell aftermarket ones. And it pays pretty good to machine them but takes forever. If they are bad enough I’ll sell them but otherwise machine. If it’s my car I’m either pad slapping or replacing the rotors.

 

[GON]

Interesting article, recommended reading as a supplement to this thread:

Greece Economic Crisis – Lessons from Disaster and Partial Recovery​

For seven years, the Euro seemed a blessing. Markets assumed Greek debt was now safe so bond yields were as low as Germany’s yields. The Greek economy took advantage and went on a borrowing binge. Buying luxury foreign imports such as German cars, at ultra-low interest rates. Yet, whilst consumption rose, so did problems of productivity, higher inflation and lower competitiveness.

The Greek current account deficit started to soar, reaching 15% of GDP in 2008. It’s hard to emphasise just how unprecedented it is for a country to such a large trade imbalance. In the Euro, other countries like Spain experienced a similar problem, but Greece was off the scale. It was heightened only by record levels of Greek government debt.

The problem is debts were so massive that the Greek economy struggled to finance them. The Greek finance sector was in meltdown. For years, markets assumed Greek debt would be as safe as Germany’s. But, in 2010 they they suddenly became labelled as Junk status. Bond yields soared from 2% to 30%. Not only had Greece massive debt, but now it had a surge in interest rate costs which overwhelmed the government.

https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216058/economics/greece-economic-crisis/

 

[GON]

Wow, deeply sadden and eye opening to learn this thread is funny to some.

I spent ample amounts of my adult life working in nations that have and/or had a currency collapse/ devaluation. Currency collapse/ devaluation crushes most citizens of a nation, often for more than a generation.

 

[JeffKeryk]

I suppose borrowing money from Chinese peasants to buy products built by Chinese peasants is the way to pay back the monies borrowed from China and the like for their Chinese products. We only have so much U.S. farmland and the like to pay back China with.

1. Trade deficits are not a simple accounting convention; they are real debt that must be paid back
2. Trade deficits must be financed, and we finance our trade deficit by borrowing from our trading partners.
3. The big irony is that we borrow money from our trading partners to finance our trade deficit so that we can buy more of their exports.
4. When the value for the dollar is increased, our exports become less competitive and imports cheaper.
5. Contrary to popular belief, the trade deficit debt must be paid back, and this will be increasingly hard to do with growing federal deficits.
6. If we get crosswise with China, they may decide to not loan us any more money and cash in their US securities.

https://www.industryweek.com/the-ec...e-deficits-are-hurting-american-manufacturing

A ten year old article- things are much worse than when this article was published:

According to the Census Bureau, our top seven trading partners are: Canada, China, Mexico, Japan, Germany, South Korea, and the United Kingdom. These seven countries represent 50.9% of our total trade deficit: -$461.3 billion for January – November 2014. At an average deficit of $40 billion per month, the 2014 trade deficit will exceed $500 billion. Our 2014 trade deficit with China alone was -$314.3 billion for January – November, representing 68% of the total.

Some may claim that we are still the leader in advanced technology products, but this is no longer true. The U. S. has been running a trade deficit in these products since 2002, which has grown to an astonishing average of nearly $90 billion per year since 2010.

Even our most recent trade agreement, the Korea U. S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA), which went into effect in March 2012, has had a negative impact. Last March, the U. S. Trade Representative for the Obama Administration touted, “Since the Korea agreement went into effect, U.S. exports to Korea are up for our manufactured goods, including autos, exports are up for a wide range of our agricultural products, and exports are up for our services.” However, the reality is that our imports continued to exceed our exports, and the U. S. trade deficit with Korea jumped from -$13.62 billion in 2011 to -$22.8 billion through November 2014, which is a 60% increase in two and a half years.

https://www.industryweek.com/the-ec...tween-our-trade-deficit-and-our-national-debt

This is no reason for a global tariff war.

 

[cptbarkey]

I posted this in another thread, there has been much complaining about the who and the why on the decline in US manufacturing, and little focus on the how it will be fixed.

Explain the how @GON

FDR had the answer, and it wasn’t austerity.

 

[GON]

This is no reason for a global tariff war.

Tariff war was fought and ended decades ago. It is crystal clear who won and lost that war.

The discussion now is how to recover/ rebuild from the monster financial losses of the war. Japan had a plan, and it worked, Republic of Korea had a plan, and it worked.

Failure to plan is a plan to fail.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Tariff war was fought and ended decades ago. It is crystal clear who won and lost that war.

The discussion now is how to recover/ rebuild from the monster financial losses of the war. Japan had a plan, and it worked, Republic of Korea had a plan, and it worked.

Failure to plan is a plan to fail.

Exactly. Global tariffs. I posted elsewhere about Economics opacity. You might be interested.

 

[GON]

I posted this in another thread, there has been much complaining about the who and the why on the decline in US manufacturing, and little focus on the how it will be fixed.

Explain the how @GON

FDR had the answer, and it wasn’t austerity.

What was FDR trying to solve, and what was his answer? Was FDR trying to solve a massive debt/ deficit, while the average age of a male death in the U.S. has risen over 20 years?

Average age of U.S. male death 1920 53 years of age
Average age of U.S. male death 2024 74 years of age

 

[GON]

Exactly. Global tariffs. I posted elsewhere about Economics opacity. You might be interested.

Sorry, I'll study post war tariff results from Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK), along with studying Chinse tariffs, well before studying tenured U.S. economic professors.

I'll never forget working on my first master's degree, a never practicing lawyer teaching business law stating an individual could own a corporation. I had to educate this professor that an individual can't own a corporation.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Sorry, I'll study post war tariff results from Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK), along with studying Chinse tariffs, well before studying tenured U.S. economic professors.

I'll never forget working on my first master's degree, a never practicing lawyer teaching business law stating an individual could own a corporation. I had to educate this professor that an individual can't own a corporation.

So you won't even listen? I'll even copy the definition for you...

In Economics, "opacity" refers to a lack of transparency or clarity, where information about assets, markets, or economic activities is not readily available or easily understood, potentially leading to inefficiencies and instability.

 

[cptbarkey]

What was FDR trying to solve, and what was his answer? Was FDR trying to solve a massive debt/ deficit, while the average age of a male death in the U.S. has risen over 20 years?

Average age of U.S. male death 1920 53 years of age
Average age of U.S. male death 2024 74 years of age

You can look up the new deal.

Today’s nonsense is a manufactured and avoidable crisis, bottom line.

 

[maggie06]

Already more than tired of the phrases "might be very painful", "going to be some pain" etc. Above a certain income level it may be annoying but not painful. At lower income levels the "pain" could be and will be financially devastating right now for the idea that things might get better sometime later. A lot of people are thinking this is not what I signed up for.

So, I guess we kick the can down the road to the next 3 generations? Instead of $36 trillion in debt as of now, it will be what...136, 236? There is no way our country survives that, at least in its current form.

This reset has been needed for decades, and it's gonna hurt for awhile. The corruption is rampant, everybody knew it deep down, now they can actually see it, at least the tip of the iceberg.

Stay the course, it's our only hope.

 

[AZjeff]

@GON, I believe everything you wrote above is true and factual, but I don't have the ability to understand global economics past or present so I can't even pretend to be able to have a conversation about it.

No doubt these things that concern you that most of us can't begin to understand desperately need fixed but does it all have to happen RIGHT NOW simultaneously?

 

[GON]

@GON, I believe everything you wrote above is true and factual, but I don't have the ability to understand global economics past or present so I can't even pretend to be able to have a conversation about it.

No doubt these things that concern you that most of us can't begin to understand desperately need fixed but does it all have to happen RIGHT NOW simultaneously?

@AZjeff

Thanks for the courteous reply.

The answer to "does it all have to happen RIGHT NOW simultaneously?" is I don't know. I don't think any of us is privy to the real situation in a holistic manner. Sometimes a doctor can look at blood tests and state "the patient will die in the next 24-48 hours", like the doctor did when my Dad passed. I had no way of knowing if/ when my Dad would pass, but his doctor knew very clearly.

I think a different question well worth asking is- how did it get to this? How did the U.S. become so catastrophically deep in debt? Why did it happen and what needs to be done about it?

Final two questions (1) why is the U.S. paying almost double the interest rate Germany pays on its debt? How can that be even possible if the U.S. is the world's reserve currency? (2) is there an adversary to the U.S. that has been working a decades long game plan to "addict" the U.S. to debt (to include lending the U.S. money), eliminate the U.S. industrial capacity from being number one in the world to limp and invalidated, with an end-state of the U.S. unable to defend itself and its interests, nor maintain the USD as the world's reserve currency?

 

[dnewton3]

Speaking specifically to the topic of the thread title .... that of turning rotors ...

The problem with many OE rotors and replacement rotors these days is that there isn't much "meat on the bone"; there's precious little material on a typical used rotor worth turning, because they often are so thin that they can't be safely cut deep enough to both remove any warpage/grooves and at the same time stay above the minimum required thickness spec. This is why many large auto-parts chains simply don't mess with turning rotors.

About the only time I've seen rotors worth cutting are when you have purchased aftermarket discs which were (for a lack of better terms) "oversized"; meaning that they are severe service rotors which have a lot more "meat" on them. Some high-volume applications offer these "better" rotors.
Example ... my stock 2018 Taurus has fairly thin OE rotors which warped under heat loads (repeated applications in mountains). I bought "severe service" Duralast Gold rotors and the pulsing problem vanished, and there was also enough material that in the future, they likely could have been cut at least once and stay viable.

 

[GON]

So you won't even listen? I'll even copy the definition for you...

In Economics, "opacity" refers to a lack of transparency or clarity, where information about assets, markets, or economic activities is not readily available or easily understood, potentially leading to inefficiencies and instability.

No economist is needed whatsoever to explain when a nation imports more than it exports, over a long term, that nation will financially collapse.

Economists had decades to sound the alarm. Kind of like a dietician showing up at the operating room for a diabetic patient getting their limbs amputated. To late for the dietician to prevent the limb amputations.