Synthetics in the next 5 - 10 -15+ years...

[mfisher1967]

When I was growing up in the early 1970's, a lot of folks thought that by Y2K cars would no longer use gasoline. Quite a few also thought that tires would be a thing of the past, as cars would surely hover or fly by Y2K. Well, we all know that a lot of our predictions back then did not come to pass. Yes, there have been a few battery powered cars produced along the way, Hybrids are catching on too, but gasoline is still powering most vehicles today. As for hover cars, perhaps there have been a few concept vehicles.

What changes do you think that we will see engine oil undergo in the next 20 years? Will engines employ systems that clean fluid lubricants and replenish additives without having to perform drains at all? Will drains extend out to 100,000+ miles? Perhaps a different type of fuel or engine technology will result will result in 0% fuel or combustion byproducts contaminating the oil, if combustion engines are used at all. Maybe bearings will be made of a material that does not wear at all as long as fluid levels are maintained?

Anyway, what do you folks see coming down the road?

 

[Dad2leia]

Ceramic lining on the internals of an engine would make conventional lubricants a thing of the past, but I do not know if it is economically feasible or desirable.

 

[mechtech2]

Civilian personal aircraft would result in insane costs and accidents. Things fall down - for whatever reason.
We can safely rule them out.
If we can make Hydrogen by using less energy than it will ultimately produce, then we will have fuel forever.

 

[SargeGTO]

We'll have super filters and just add little bottles of add packs to our oil that stays in the sump for the life of the car.

 

[mfisher1967]

What about a bio-based lubricant(as in living organisms) that "heals" itself? Nano technology could be used to repair damage on the fly. How cool would that be...

 

[Dad2leia]

Now that's something that I hadn't thought of, and I like that idea. Good one mfisher1967!

 

[salesrep]

The 3k myth still lives today. Why? We know why? In 20 years it will be the 5k myth with dino. Syns will double their market share, maybe triple, but will still be a samll % of engine oil sold.

 

[Titan]

Quote:

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The 3k myth still lives today. Why? We know why? In 20 years it will be the 5k myth with dino. Syns will double their market share, maybe triple, but will still be a samll % of engine oil sold.

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People will be arguing that the 0-10 oils are too thin, and some people will still scream that we should be using 5-30 for sufficient protection. Yet, engines will be routinely lasting upwards of 400,000 miles without rebuilding....

 

[salesrep]

Yea. I'd ditto that Titan.

 

[HM12460]

hard to say for sure... a few possibilities listed are probably realistic. right now, i think ford, gm, and chrysler are just trying to survive by building cars they can't sell.

 

[Dad2leia]

Do you really think so salesrep? I mean about the continued level of petroleum oil sales.

It would be nice if now that we up and coming in the biolubricants, if would couldn't go into something else in that time frame.

 

[salesrep]

A bio "wave" is possible and would change all the rules. That said. Will the gov. and big oil allow legislation? Is there sufficient supply?
The 3k myth was somewhat of a flippant remark. The point being that the general public overwhelmingly still thinks like their Dad and Granddad. Which of course is 3k based on engines and oils of 30 years ago. Today's average oil drain is 4.3k, mostly otc dino. 5k the next logical step for the public to swallow. The jiffy's of the world still REALLY Promote the 3k interval.
I think that you will see more of a move in industry and perhaps the big rig world than in the passenger car market.

 

[Dad2leia]

I can vouge for the "brainwashing" of the 3/3000 myth. It took me a long time to leave in even synthetics longer, but have since converted to listening to an OLM, and even though I could probably push even further, I don't.

I would like to just wring Jiffy's neck sometimes for still pushing for those intervals. All this thinking would be nice to have at least some of the suggestions here come to pass, hopefully in my lifetime anyway...

 

[salesrep]

Thing is it is not just the jiffy's. I call on a lot of garages that will NOT consider syn 7k intervals to promote to heir customers. Their reasoning...... They need to see their customers every 3k. Plus some just don't believe in syns.

 

[Curious Kid]

As for change...there's the "human element." Yes, I mean that in a broad sense from facts and figures to the emotional and ethical reasons.

An off-thought I had today was that humans are animals first, civilized human beings second, as for reactive processes one has with one's environment, etc.

AS for what might come along the way, employing a lot of individuals, as well as invested. Change isn't going to be easy without branching/expanding of current technology and knowledge so as not to leave heavy losses of labor talent and suddenly obsolete equipment. Seems kind of catastrophic, but that's one potential with big venture w/o broad outreach/involvement.

"What will be a requirement?", I think could be another question to ask because one's way of life just might dramatically change and limits through expense and resource might limit the priority of personal transportation, let alone if much might be needed then. Haven't a clue, just thinking "out there".

Take care.

 

[Auto-Union]

If my mechanic saw me every 3k, he would want to kill me...that's every month.

 

[Drivebelt]

The next step in synthetics is GTL (Gas to Liquids) which will likely fall under the Group III+ base oil classification (very similar to wax isomerate GIII+'s).

Gas to Liquids.pdf

GTL BASEOIL

-- Extremely high quality baseoils
-- Higher VI than same viscosity PAO
-- Excellent oxidation resistance –no sulphur
-- Excellent thermal stability
-- Less VI improver needed in formulations

-- Exceptional performance –a new generation of synthetics
-- Significant volume potential –can meet all demand
-- GTL competes directly with Group III and PAO rather than Group II
-- GTL based lubes offer better fuel economy, lower emissions and enable a lube marketer to offer “Fill for Life”lubes
-- Enables zero sulphur HDEO and 5W, 0W PCMO

The … "Fill for Life" … lubes is a stretch.

I think GTL base oils pretty well represents the EOL for improvements to hydrocarbon based lubes. They are isoparaffins like PAO's but different branching structure (hydroprocessed Group III's have significant cycloparaffin content -- saturated ring structures). Unless someone finds a way to adjust the branching structure of these hydrocarbon lubricants to some exact specifications -- ie. … exact tailor made lubs with specific hydrocarbon structures, there is no way to improve hydrocarbon base oils any further (even then these tailor made oils would probably only represent a very minor improvement on certain characteristics like pour-point). In any case, all the "weak" links will have been removed from the hydrocarbons chains and we will have to rely on additives to make further improvements.