stock market

[Oildudeny]

how many of you are cleaning up and filling your ira and 401k's etc before end of year? i dont trust this market very much right now i have been recovering my losses slowly and slowly getting out of individual stock and selling off shares of mutual funds etc. i want to take a different approach next year hopefully all this election fiasco will be over and the economy can try to recover from this past year of doom. if that is the case i want to follow the s&p, nasdaq and russell 2000. will most likely pick up mutual funds that track the following nasdaq and russell 2000...i am already in a s&p 500 fund.

for now i am watching this market close out the 2020 calendar year and have most all my ira's parked in the money market cash reserves.. if anyone cares to share their investment strategy for 2021 and on i'd be interested in hearing so. happy holidays and god bless all.. if your faith is elsewhere, many blessings to those who believe differently.

 

[demarpaint]

I'd consult a trusted financial planner familiar with your situation. Asking on an oil forum imo is not a good idea. In any event, good luck to you and Merry Christmas.

 

[SuperSalad]

I'm going to keep on with my current strategy of buy low, sell high, and hold onto decent growth stocks with worthwhile yields for the long term.

I always keep my eyes and ears open for solid companies well positioned for recovery after periods of poor performance, and I buy when the time seems right to me. It's been working pretty well so far. Time will tell.

 

[Oildudeny]

I'd consult a trusted financial planner familiar with your situation. Asking on an oil forum imo is not a good idea. In any event, good luck to you and Merry Christmas.

i was not looking for advice for my own personal investing i was just picking the world of their own ideas and outlook on the markets.

 

[Oildudeny]

I'm going to keep on with my current strategy of buy low, sell high, and hold onto decent growth stocks with worthwhile yields for the long term.

I always keep my eyes and ears open for solid companies well positioned for recovery after periods of poor performance, and I buy when the time seems right to me. It's been working pretty well so far. Time will tell.

as the saying goes.. different strokes for different folks.. yes, if it has been working for you and you're happy with the return.. i would say stick with it and keep filling your "honey hole".

 

[LazyDog]

Today's market is LOVE and hate relation. With interest rate so low that fixed income= pillow money, the old way to value stocks dictates that

infinity is the value with no competition from fixed side. This is like playing with fire so I am just keeping my stock portion at 20% and forget the

80%. Better to have some mattress money in case the whole thing blows up and be left w/ nothing.

 

[JHZR2]

I'd consult a trusted financial planner familiar with your situation. Asking on an oil forum imo is not a good idea. In any event, good luck to you and Merry Christmas.

Problem is that I’m not sure any financial planners really have a better crystal ball than anyone else.

To me, the question is if one believes the data and analyses that indicate that “sitting out” the best #n days results in an outcome that is %x worse than if you just stayed in. The data seems to indicate that trying to time or beat the market doesn’t really produce better outcomes. My interpretation from OP is that’s kind of the intent.

Selling winners/losers in a smart strategy based upon their cyclic behavior and secular trends, especially to rebalance/rebaseline based upon age and risk is a different story. I agree that a good advisor can potentially help there.

 

[Silverado12]

What I just did is controversial, but I put 1/3 of my retirement in a 10 year annuity a couple of days ago. Guaranteed payout and when I fully retire in another two years at 62 SS will give me a decent check to live on. The way I see it is markets are at record highs right now and there's a good chance of losing a lot of money. I don't want to be retired and broke so I took the sure thing for the next 10 years.

 

[demarpaint]

Problem is that I’m not sure any financial planners really have a better crystal ball than anyone else.

To me, the question is if one believes the data and analyses that indicate that “sitting out” the best #n days results in an outcome that is %x worse than if you just stayed in. The data seems to indicate that trying to time or beat the market doesn’t really produce better outcomes. My interpretation from OP is that’s kind of the intent.

Selling winners/losers in a smart strategy based upon their cyclic behavior and secular trends, especially to rebalance/rebaseline based upon age and risk is a different story. I agree that a good advisor can potentially help there.

Here's how I see it: Common sense must come into play. Since we're all strangers for the most part, I'd be leery of stock picks, and those claiming big record breaking gains. There's hindsight, and pump and dump, so I'd take recommendations, and those boasting big winnings with a grain of salt. You're right about financial planners...........

 

[wpod]

My wonder is if financial planners were so good they wouldn't need your money to eat.

 

[demarpaint]

My wonder is if financial planners were so good they wouldn't need your money to eat.

Finding one you trust is the key. I did all of my own investing. The planner my parents used was quite good, and recently got a small percent of my business. Most are looking to line their pockets, like anyone else in business. So as with anything else like this, I say proceed with caution.

 

[JeffKeryk]

I have a 4 part portfolio...
1) Schwab managed account, Intelligent Portfolio, with mutual funds, CA municipal bonds (double tax free), bonds and cash. Even an annunity (not a bad one, but yuck). And cash. This is the balanced component.
2) Single stocks - SEMI and Tesla and a few others. This is far riskier. It is also a lotta money. Working cash here as well.
3) Property - Silicon Valley housing is stupid expensive and an easy way to make money. I am not currently buying, everything is paid off. Maybe 1 more...
4) Investing in my nieces and nephews and grand nieces. Education.

Important - This strategy is not for everyone. Schwab and Fidelity have hammered on me for years regarding #2. But living in Silicon Valley allowed stock options and grants.

If I was you I would call Schwab today and get started. Don't buy stupid cars, clothes, etc. At all times make your money work for you.
And invest in yourself, aka education.

 

[Tom NJ]

I am quite optimistic for 2021, given the COVID vaccine, a gridlocked Congress, low interest rates, easy money, a supportive Fed, global fiscal stimulus, a recovering economy, pent up consumer demand, and a return to a normal world. My portfolio tends to be steady and balanced and I rarely trade, but I did move a slug of bond money into equities in late March when the market crashed. I was convinced that the crash factors, Covid and an oil price war, were temporary external factors and I decided to bet on a "V" shaped recovery. It worked out well.

My purchases were focused on value stocks with high dividends, mostly in energy. I picked up XOM with a 10% dividend, XLE with 9%, and AT&T with 7%. I also bought Delta at $21 and it is now up 100%. I still hold these stocks but am not buying more. I even took a gamble in March on Carnival Cruise Line (CCL), something I would not normally do, but bailed a week later when I learned they would not get a government bailout. Still I made 73% on that trade.

For my age , 70, I am currently overweight in stocks (63%) and very light in cash (5%), and will hold this position for at least half of 2021 if not longer. Total portfolio is up 9% YTD, which feels pretty good after the huge hit in the spring.

 

[Pablo]

Can the mods please combine all the stock market threads? We used to have a really nice, long running thread. All these disparate threads are old school clunky.............then someone starts another..............ugggg

 

[surfstar]

No year-end "clean-up" required, if you do it right:

Roths are maxed out in January of each year, Vanguard TSM (total stock market)
TSP (wife) and 457 are 'maxed' each paycheck - in low cost index funds to simulate TSM allocation
overall asset allocation is 80/20 - 75/25 roughly (we're moving towards 60/40 by retirement)

When you simply purchase low cost index funds, you don't need to do any work. No need to try and "outperform" or "time" or clean-up your accounts. We were invested fully through the ups and downs and came out quite nicely. Much easier than trying to guess the market's direction, having to get it right at least twice (buy in and out) and/or trying to pick the next "winning" stock. No one can do that repeatedly. Save your grief and simply invest, not gamble.

 

[surfstar]

how many of you are cleaning up and filling your ira and 401k's etc before end of year? i dont trust this market very much right now i have been recovering my losses slowly and slowly getting out of individual stock and selling off shares of mutual funds etc. i want to take a different approach next year hopefully all this election fiasco will be over and the economy can try to recover from this past year of doom. if that is the case i want to follow the s&p, nasdaq and russell 2000. will most likely pick up mutual funds that track the following nasdaq and russell 2000...i am already in a s&p 500 fund.

for now i am watching this market close out the 2020 calendar year and have most all my ira's parked in the money market cash reserves.. if anyone cares to share their investment strategy for 2021 and on i'd be interested in hearing so. happy holidays and god bless all.. if your faith is elsewhere, many blessings to those who believe differently.

So how much of the huge run-up since March did you miss out on?
Don't have a "strategy" that changes by year, or feelings, or anything abruptly.
I suggest you spend some time reading bogleheads
You can get the Bogleheads Guide to Investing book, used for $5 or so.

Here's a free short e-book that is geared towards younger investors, but espouses a similar philosophy and is worth the short time it takes to read it:
If You Can by William J. Bernstein
Would you believe me if I told you that there’s an investment strategy that a seven-year-old could
understand, will take you fifteen minutes of work per year, outperform 90 percent of finance
professionals in the long run, and make you a millionaire over time?

and an article from today to read too: Keep Calm and Carry On

 

[Wolf359]

For my age , 70, I am currently overweight in stocks (63%) and very light in cash (5%), and will hold this position for at least half of 2021 if not longer. Total portfolio is up 9% YTD, which feels pretty good after the huge hit in the spring.

I guess 9% is good with that kind of mix, I'm closer to 100% but up about 22% YTD. Slightly bigger weighting in the Nasdaq which has been doing better than the S&P 500. It's basically buy and hold here. There was another thread where someone was getting out and waiting for the market correction before getting back in before the election and that certainly didn't work out. It's like when you think you know which way the market is going, it tends to do the opposite.

If you don't need the money for a while I wouldn't say you're overweight in stocks for your age. I'd say advisers tend to be too conservative so when you're out of the market, you end up losing more money following their advice. Their advice seems to be geared toward a 50/50 chance that the market will decline, but if you look at the 10 year cycle, that's about one in 10 years, not 50/50. So following too conservative a path costs you more in the long run.

 

[Tom NJ]

I have always been a conservative investor. I don't "trade" and rarely take a gamble, but every so often an opportunity arises that one should not ignore. For example I shorted the Nasdaq QQQs in early 2000 just before the technology crash. Friends thought I was crazy, but to me that was a no brainer given the vertical rise the year before with sky high PEs, and it paid off well. Likewise I loaded up on stocks during the crash of 2008/2009 and bounced back very quickly. This Covid crash was another one of these rare events that I will look back on in the future and be happy I bough that steep dip. Our life style is not threatened by stock market moves, but still I just don't have gambler's blood.

 

[gfh77665]

I am quite optimistic for 2021, given the COVID vaccine, a gridlocked Congress, low interest rates, easy money, a supportive Fed, global fiscal stimulus, a recovering economy, pent up consumer demand, and a return to a normal world. My portfolio tends to be steady and balanced and I rarely trade, but I did move a slug of bond money into equities in late March when the market crashed. I was convinced that the crash factors, Covid and an oil price war, were temporary external factors and I decided to bet on a "V" shaped recovery. It worked out well.

Thats exactly what I did. I got spooked in July of last year when the market was soaring, so I went to mostly bonds. In March, just a day or two before the low point of the crash, I dumped it all back in. It paid off really really well.

 

[FowVay]

I retired this year, took my 401k and put it in my IRA and now own a mix of growth and income funds, income funds, and a dabble of individual stocks. It's December so I always take my losers and sell them off (tax loss harvesting) to get the tax write-off for the year and then I buy back the ones I want to keep (usually resource stocks that pay high dividends). My advisor says I should own some bonds but I'm not doing it. I keep 10% of my total assets in cash and live off of my pension. I'm young at only 56 years old so I have no idea what I'm going to do with my social security when I turn 62. I may start it early just because I see people die off well before they ever drew a penny. I'm still up in the air about that.

So, don't get emotional with this election stuff. The market has done great under Trump and it historically does great under a democrat president so either way I think there's plenty of room to grow. My financial advisor says I'll be fine as long as I don't buy a helicopter.